Semi-OT: Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread

[bulliedog8]

[img]https://www.ruralhealthinfo.org/rural-maps/mapfiles/hpsa-primary-care.jpg?v=4[img]

The problem is that the rural areas are just as much at risk of overwhelming hospitals...often because they don't have them. A small town could have 20-30 cases just from a single church service and then would need people to travel miles to the nearest critical care facility. Rural areas are very much at risk with even minimal spread.

So far there isnt a shortage at all. And actually, unfortunately, a lot of hospitals are laying off staff or telling them to go home for a while because they arent busy at all.

The models have been wrong at EVERY SINGLE point. Said we'd be short beds, we arent. Said wed be short ventilators, we arent.

And if these workers are soooo bombarded by patients and work right now, where are they all (I am generalizing here) finding the time to do tiktok videos?

[dhsilv2]

[img]https://www.ruralhealthinfo.org/rural-maps/mapfiles/hpsa-primary-care.jpg?v=4[img]

The problem is that the rural areas are just as much at risk of overwhelming hospitals...often because they don't have them. A small town could have 20-30 cases just from a single church service and then would need people to travel miles to the nearest critical care facility. Rural areas are very much at risk with even minimal spread.

So far there isnt a shortage at all. And actually, unfortunately, a lot of hospitals are laying off staff or telling them to go home for a while because they arent busy at all.

The models have been wrong at EVERY SINGLE point. Said we'd be short beds, we arent. Said wed be short ventilators, we arent.

And if these workers are soooo bombarded by patients and work right now, where are they all (I am generalizing here) finding the time to do tiktok videos?

What we're doing is WORKING. The models that had the most doom and gloom assumed people would do a far worse job of "social distancing". Turns out, most people are listening on this or at least being forced to do more than the models expected.

[hippesthippo]

Another interesting thing is that of 9/10 people or so in the store (again, me being the only one wearing my ski mask even), most were over 60. Including the lady at the register. Pretty odd honestly. They should in fact be much more careful.

I'd say mask usage is around 75% here at the stores. Of course, the people that aren't wearing masks are the teenagers working there that we are trying to protect.

Disc Golf courses are barren, but it's been a steady diet of rain. I can't speak for Ball Golf.

As someone who goes out like 2-3 times a week for groceries or alcohol...where in gods name are people getting all these masks? Is there a mask store I just missed...and is it better for me to go there and expose myself and others to me or better to avoid it and just limit time trips out?

Amazon? Making them from cloth at home? I don't know there are guides everywhere, dude. Personally, I had some from work.

[bulliedog8]

[img]https://www.ruralhealthinfo.org/rural-maps/mapfiles/hpsa-primary-care.jpg?v=4[img]

The problem is that the rural areas are just as much at risk of overwhelming hospitals...often because they don't have them. A small town could have 20-30 cases just from a single church service and then would need people to travel miles to the nearest critical care facility. Rural areas are very much at risk with even minimal spread.

So far there isnt a shortage at all. And actually, unfortunately, a lot of hospitals are laying off staff or telling them to go home for a while because they arent busy at all.

The models have been wrong at EVERY SINGLE point. Said we'd be short beds, we arent. Said wed be short ventilators, we arent.

And if these workers are soooo bombarded by patients and work right now, where are they all (I am generalizing here) finding the time to do tiktok videos?

What we're doing is WORKING. The models that had the most doom and gloom assumed people would do a far worse job of "social distancing". Turns out, most people are listening on this or at least being forced to do more than the models expected.

The models were based on 100% COMPLIANCE for shelter in place and social distancing. From the very beginning until June. Their numbers were literally a best case scenario "IF EVERYTHING GOES RIGHT".

[dhsilv2]

So far there isnt a shortage at all. And actually, unfortunately, a lot of hospitals are laying off staff or telling them to go home for a while because they arent busy at all.

The models have been wrong at EVERY SINGLE point. Said we'd be short beds, we arent. Said wed be short ventilators, we arent.

And if these workers are soooo bombarded by patients and work right now, where are they all (I am generalizing here) finding the time to do tiktok videos?

What we're doing is WORKING. The models that had the most doom and gloom assumed people would do a far worse job of "social distancing". Turns out, most people are listening on this or at least being forced to do more than the models expected.

The models were based on 100% COMPLIANCE for shelter in place and social distancing. From the very beginning until June. Their numbers were literally a best case scenario "IF EVERYTHING GOES RIGHT".

Can you link such a model? From what I've seen a lot were based on 50%, but I could be wrong.

[bulliedog8]

What we're doing is WORKING. The models that had the most doom and gloom assumed people would do a far worse job of "social distancing". Turns out, most people are listening on this or at least being forced to do more than the models expected.

The models were based on 100% COMPLIANCE for shelter in place and social distancing. From the very beginning until June. Their numbers were literally a best case scenario "IF EVERYTHING GOES RIGHT".

Can you link such a model? From what I've seen a lot were based on 50%, but I could be wrong.

Read on Twitter

?s=20

[bwgood77]

Another interesting thing is that of 9/10 people or so in the store (again, me being the only one wearing my ski mask even), most were over 60. Including the lady at the register. Pretty odd honestly. They should in fact be much more careful.

I'd say mask usage is around 75% here at the stores. Of course, the people that aren't wearing masks are the teenagers working there that we are trying to protect.

Disc Golf courses are barren, but it's been a steady diet of rain. I can't speak for Ball Golf.

As someone who goes out like 2-3 times a week for groceries or alcohol...where in gods name are people getting all these masks? Is there a mask store I just missed...and is it better for me to go there and expose myself and others to me or better to avoid it and just limit time trips out?

I ordered surgical and N95 ones weeks ago here https://www.aliexpress.com/item/32955288596.html?spm=a2g0s.9042311.0.0.394b4c4dCAVOlD but only got one order. I haven't seen them barely anywhere to buy though so I have wondered how so many have surgical and N95 ones too.

But I think those ones that people show online how to make from the shop towels are probably better than the surgical ones anyway.

[dhsilv2]

The models were based on 100% COMPLIANCE for shelter in place and social distancing. From the very beginning until June. Their numbers were literally a best case scenario "IF EVERYTHING GOES RIGHT".

Can you link such a model? From what I've seen a lot were based on 50%, but I could be wrong.

Interesting, doesn't really provide the model itself or more details, but that's an extremely early model where you'd assume a huge margin for error. I don't see the margin for error here but with twitter it's almost always impossible to figure anything out or fact check.

[dhsilv2]

I'd say mask usage is around 75% here at the stores. Of course, the people that aren't wearing masks are the teenagers working there that we are trying to protect.

Disc Golf courses are barren, but it's been a steady diet of rain. I can't speak for Ball Golf.

As someone who goes out like 2-3 times a week for groceries or alcohol...where in gods name are people getting all these masks? Is there a mask store I just missed...and is it better for me to go there and expose myself and others to me or better to avoid it and just limit time trips out?

I ordered surgical and N95 ones weeks ago here https://www.aliexpress.com/item/32955288596.html?spm=a2g0s.9042311.0.0.394b4c4dCAVOlD but only got one order. I haven't seen them barely anywhere to buy though so I have wondered how so many have surgical and N95 ones too.

But I think those ones that people show online how to make from the shop towels are probably better than the surgical ones anyway.

I sadly don't own anything remotely useful in making these things. I tend to keep very little around my place that isn't essential.

[bulliedog8]

Can you link such a model? From what I've seen a lot were based on 50%, but I could be wrong.

Interesting, doesn't really provide the model itself or more details, but that's an extremely early model where you'd assume a huge margin for error. I don't see the margin for error here but with twitter it's almost always impossible to figure anything out or fact check.

Here is the IHME FAQ archived from March 31

https://web.archive.org/web/20200331102159/http://www.healthdata.org/covid/faqs

Does this show the effect of social distancing and other measures?

The model assumes continued social distancing until the end of May 2020. In states that do not currently have social distancing in place, we have assumed that they will put it in place within seven days of the last model update. If they do not, then the number of deaths and the burden on their hospital systems likely will be higher than the projections.

[LAKESHOW]

Thanks for the Info!

[bidde]

Can you link such a model? From what I've seen a lot were based on 50%, but I could be wrong.

Interesting, doesn't really provide the model itself or more details, but that's an extremely early model where you'd assume a huge margin for error. I don't see the margin for error here but with twitter it's almost always impossible to figure anything out or fact check.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

Also has a FAQ and a link to the paper that explains the projections in detail.

[dhsilv2]

Interesting, doesn't really provide the model itself or more details, but that's an extremely early model where you'd assume a huge margin for error. I don't see the margin for error here but with twitter it's almost always impossible to figure anything out or fact check.

Here is the IHME FAQ archived from March 31

https://web.archive.org/web/20200331102159/http://www.healthdata.org/covid/faqs

Does this show the effect of social distancing and other measures?

The model assumes continued social distancing until the end of May 2020. In states that do not currently have social distancing in place, we have assumed that they will put it in place within seven days of the last model update. If they do not, then the number of deaths and the burden on their hospital systems likely will be higher than the projections.

Our model is designed to be a planning tool, and is informed by the shape that other COVID-19 outbreaks are taking, in terms of deaths, around the world and across the US. Other models may use other approaches, such as assuming a population where everyone was equally likely to interact with everyone else, and model different scenarios such as the absence of, or different levels of, social distancing. These models are useful for motivating action to prevent such worst-case scenarios, while our model is designed to specifically address the planning needs of hospital administrators and local governments.

Going back as far as the archive would take me shows we're well within the margins provided. I haven't been able to dig deeper into it, but nothing here looks deeply off and they were doing this with pretty minimal data. That said they clearly state they are focused on preventing a worse case scenario so you'd expect these models to error on the high side, that inherently the point of them.

[dhsilv2]

I know this has likely been addressed before but it seems some are missing a bit of it so please, hopefully this is useful.

Here is a graph of "flattening" the curve in the simplest possible form.

Now keep in mind the bottom is time since first case. We see that when we "Flatten the Curve" we also extend the time that we have a growth in cases. Notice even in this graph there are more cases AFTER the peak when it is flattened. So for those saying "we have flattened the curve lets go back to work", they are missing how much longer it takes post peak for this to end. Or in another words, we're back half way there in places like NYC and a few weeks behind that in other areas that still haven't reached their peaks.

[bondom34]

Undoing what people have done so far seems like a non-optimal plan. I'm glad to see people are staying in.

Also, even a homemade cloth mask is better than nothing, just wash in the laundry after use, I've been doing that shopping when I've had to go out the last week or so.

[NY 567]

I don't really know how much longer this can be done. The rich and big business can wait this out, but the poor, middle class, and small businesses can't do this for much longer. I don't like the fact that the government can exert all of this power either, this is a very dangerous precedent we're setting. I think by May, we need to lift the restrictions and strongly advise the old and the compromised to self quarantine. We're playing a pretty deadly game with our economy, our way of life, and our civil liberties.

[LAKESHOW]

Its all about the Death toll. Bring that down we will see some lee way to reopening

[Badonkadonk]

I'd say mask usage is around 75% here at the stores. Of course, the people that aren't wearing masks are the teenagers working there that we are trying to protect.

Disc Golf courses are barren, but it's been a steady diet of rain. I can't speak for Ball Golf.

As someone who goes out like 2-3 times a week for groceries or alcohol...where in gods name are people getting all these masks? Is there a mask store I just missed...and is it better for me to go there and expose myself and others to me or better to avoid it and just limit time trips out?

Amazon? Making them from cloth at home? I don't know there are guides everywhere, dude. Personally, I had some from work.

We made ours. Like you said, tons of guides. It was pretty easy.

[dennythedino]

I don't really know how much longer this can be done. The rich and big business can wait this out, but the poor, middle class, and small businesses can't do this for much longer. I don't like the fact that the government can exert all of this power either, this is a very dangerous precedent we're setting. I think by May, we need to lift the restrictions and strongly advise the old and the compromised to self quarantine. We're playing a pretty deadly game with our economy, our way of life, and our civil liberties.

Methinks that the economy will be "reopening" in May. And by re-opening, I'm thinking no large gatherings and theaters/restaurants at only half-capacity maximum.

We won't be seeing large sporting events or concerts for a while.

[Paija]

for dhsilv2: https://www.huffpost.com/entry/how-to-make-face-mask-from-fabric-covid-19_l_5e834a20c5b62dd9f5d628e8
try this. It is VERY easy.