2020 free agent targets and draft picks
Moderators: Moonbeam, DeBlazerRiddem
Re: 2020 free agent targets and draft picks
-
- Pro Prospect
- Posts: 838
- And1: 219
- Joined: Jul 19, 2008
- Location: Just South of Rip City
Re: 2020 free agent targets and draft picks
Devin Vassell and Xavier Tillman are my targets right now.
Both may be out of our range though. I like Tillie too in the 2nd if Whiteside isn't retained.
Okoro likely isn't there either, but he's another one of my favorites. Love the upside if the jumper gets figured out.
Big if right now though.
Both may be out of our range though. I like Tillie too in the 2nd if Whiteside isn't retained.
Okoro likely isn't there either, but he's another one of my favorites. Love the upside if the jumper gets figured out.
Big if right now though.
Re: 2020 free agent targets and draft picks
-
- Bench Warmer
- Posts: 1,490
- And1: 388
- Joined: Jun 16, 2008
Re: 2020 free agent targets and draft picks
-
- Forum Mod - Blazers
- Posts: 14,619
- And1: 6,613
- Joined: Mar 11, 2010
Re: 2020 free agent targets and draft picks
Pokusevski, Okoro and McDaniels have the highest ceilings in our range and may very well go before our pick. Vassel, Nesmith and Saddiq Bey are little bit safer options with lower bust potential.
I would love to get a PG in the second but we all know Olshey isn't going to draft anyone to compete with Simons for minutes there. I think we are more likely to stock a backup big there, kind of looking at Neemias Queta, he could be a Dieng type player.
I would love to get a PG in the second but we all know Olshey isn't going to draft anyone to compete with Simons for minutes there. I think we are more likely to stock a backup big there, kind of looking at Neemias Queta, he could be a Dieng type player.
Re: 2020 free agent targets and draft picks
-
- RealGM
- Posts: 15,472
- And1: 4,001
- Joined: May 05, 2005
- Location: Oakland
-
Re: 2020 free agent targets and draft picks
Tough draft. We need another big man next to Collins & Nurk, but this draft is PG heavy.
I’m not high on Vassell. He has a nice jumper, but his physicals scream at me that he’s going to get bodied in the NBA. Doesn’t possess strength to get to where he wants.
Okoro is nice wing defender who would be nice for us. McDaniels needs to improve his outside shooting
I’m not high on Vassell. He has a nice jumper, but his physicals scream at me that he’s going to get bodied in the NBA. Doesn’t possess strength to get to where he wants.
Okoro is nice wing defender who would be nice for us. McDaniels needs to improve his outside shooting
Kuya wrote: a good agent collects all the data, including quotes to give them leverage in contract deals.
Re: 2020 free agent targets and draft picks
- d-train
- RealGM
- Posts: 21,227
- And1: 1,098
- Joined: Mar 26, 2001
-
Re: 2020 free agent targets and draft picks
We should have a shot at getting a good prospect at #14. It will be very difficult to get a mid 2nd, undrafted rookie, or young scrapheap free agent that is better than players on our team last year, especially if Blazers use their MLE and/or TPE to add veteran(s).

Re: 2020 free agent targets and draft picks
- d-train
- RealGM
- Posts: 21,227
- And1: 1,098
- Joined: Mar 26, 2001
-
Re: 2020 free agent targets and draft picks
Obviously, Blazers are still in 'win now' mode. But, there are always fans here that believe the team should be blown up and their recommendations are blow-it-up and rebuild suggestions. We should have a separate thread for blow-it-up and rebuild ideas.

Re: 2020 free agent targets and draft picks
-
- RealGM
- Posts: 15,472
- And1: 4,001
- Joined: May 05, 2005
- Location: Oakland
-
Re: 2020 free agent targets and draft picks
d-train wrote:We should have a shot at getting a good prospect at #14. It will be very difficult to get a mid 2nd, undrafted rookie, or young scrapheap free agent that is better than players on our team last year, especially if Blazers use their MLE and/or TPE to add veteran(s).
What’s the Blazers TPE situation?
14th pick is perfect. If you get a guy projected high and he falls it’s a steal or you can reach and grab a guy projected lower and it’s not a big deal.
Do the Blazers NEED a point guard? There is a chance the BPA will be a point guard or 2guard.
Kuya wrote: a good agent collects all the data, including quotes to give them leverage in contract deals.
Re: 2020 free agent targets and draft picks
- d-train
- RealGM
- Posts: 21,227
- And1: 1,098
- Joined: Mar 26, 2001
-
Re: 2020 free agent targets and draft picks
cdubbz wrote:d-train wrote:We should have a shot at getting a good prospect at #14. It will be very difficult to get a mid 2nd, undrafted rookie, or young scrapheap free agent that is better than players on our team last year, especially if Blazers use their MLE and/or TPE to add veteran(s).
What’s the Blazers TPE situation?
14th pick is perfect. If you get a guy projected high and he falls it’s a steal or you can reach and grab a guy projected lower and it’s not a big deal.
Do the Blazers NEED a point guard? There is a chance the BPA will be a point guard or 2guard.
The Blazers have a $7.07M TPE from the Bazemore trade that expires 1/21/21 and a $2.34M TPE from the Skal trade that expires 2/6/21. Trade exceptions could be especially useful in trades with teams trying to cut payroll in a extremely tight offseason for cap room and tax room. If Blazers use the $7.07M TPE, I would expect a very good player in return.
I believe the Blazers will take a player of any position at #14. Olshey simply wants the best player he can get.

Re: 2020 free agent targets and draft picks
-
- Starter
- Posts: 2,416
- And1: 369
- Joined: Aug 04, 2006
Re: 2020 free agent targets and draft picks
First off, I love the Steve Blake comparison for Pritchard, and was thinking the same. I remember how his game was coming out of Maryland. A pure PG with a super-high BBIQ, very reliable from 3, also big enough and quick enough to at least play a little D at the next level.
I do hope Olshey has already put the work in, scouting hard for that super-sleeper draft pick with our FRP. I wish we could somehow get lucky and find a Kawhi Leonard, PG13, or KOBE hiding at some mid-major college somewhere.
If not, I would certainly entertain trading the pick (with TPE?), for another Rodney Hood or better. There must be a fairly perfect fitting SF, stashed on some team that is loaded with multiple, rookie-3rd year wings.
Can't wait for a return of the Blazers.
I do hope Olshey has already put the work in, scouting hard for that super-sleeper draft pick with our FRP. I wish we could somehow get lucky and find a Kawhi Leonard, PG13, or KOBE hiding at some mid-major college somewhere.
If not, I would certainly entertain trading the pick (with TPE?), for another Rodney Hood or better. There must be a fairly perfect fitting SF, stashed on some team that is loaded with multiple, rookie-3rd year wings.
Can't wait for a return of the Blazers.
Re: 2020 free agent targets and draft picks
-
- Analyst
- Posts: 3,302
- And1: 651
- Joined: Jul 12, 2001
- Location: Salt Lake City, Utah
-
Re: 2020 free agent targets and draft picks
So bored with no basketball. I've been doing a lot of "internet scouting" and I really like Patrick William's if we don't luck out and have a top tier guy fall. I really like Jalen Smith and Makur Makur with our second pick.
I would happily trade down with Boston for Williams and Smith.
Say #14/#45 for #17/#26
I would happily trade down with Boston for Williams and Smith.
Say #14/#45 for #17/#26
From Portland to Reno to Vegas to LA to SLC and on to HotLanta. Winning at life. Too Blessed to be Stressed
Re: 2020 free agent targets and draft picks
-
- RealGM
- Posts: 15,472
- And1: 4,001
- Joined: May 05, 2005
- Location: Oakland
-
Re: 2020 free agent targets and draft picks
Pritchard is alriiiiiight for the second round pick. Really depends what happens with that 14th-ish pick.
Kuya wrote: a good agent collects all the data, including quotes to give them leverage in contract deals.
Re: 2020 free agent targets and draft picks
-
- RealGM
- Posts: 16,474
- And1: 2,214
- Joined: May 17, 2003
- Location: Oregon
Re: 2020 free agent targets and draft picks
It's going to be a fascinating summer for league wide financial losses from the loss of so many
games even if the games resume without the fans is going hurt every team.
League is talking openly about starting up the games perhaps in July with delaying the draft
until August along with starting next season with fans in December. I would suspect most of
the free agent players will opt to sign one year deals from their own teams (if they get an
offer).
games even if the games resume without the fans is going hurt every team.
League is talking openly about starting up the games perhaps in July with delaying the draft
until August along with starting next season with fans in December. I would suspect most of
the free agent players will opt to sign one year deals from their own teams (if they get an
offer).
Re: 2020 free agent targets and draft picks
- d-train
- RealGM
- Posts: 21,227
- And1: 1,098
- Joined: Mar 26, 2001
-
Re: 2020 free agent targets and draft picks
https://basketball.realgm.com/wiretap/257864/Joe-Lacob-Unsure-Whether-Warriors-Will-Use-Trade-Exception-Taxpayer-Mid-Level-Exception
This is someone from the Warriors, but the questions and answers generically apply to every NBA team. No matter what you thought your team's situation was 6 weeks ago, you have no clue now. I imagine the NBA and the NBPA are negotiating 12 hours a day trying to sort out the details of a plan going forward.
This is someone from the Warriors, but the questions and answers generically apply to every NBA team. No matter what you thought your team's situation was 6 weeks ago, you have no clue now. I imagine the NBA and the NBPA are negotiating 12 hours a day trying to sort out the details of a plan going forward.

Re: 2020 free agent targets and draft picks
- d-train
- RealGM
- Posts: 21,227
- And1: 1,098
- Joined: Mar 26, 2001
-
Re: 2020 free agent targets and draft picks
I started looking at the Blazers options next free agency with a much lower salary cap and tax threshold. I am just realizing that nothing significant is likely going to change because of the China virus financial disaster. Blazers are going to end up with the same players they would have even if the China virus never happened. The changes are simply the order that players are re-signed and likely the amount the players cost us. Also, whether we get the full or taxpayer MLE is likely going to be effected. I believe regardless which MLE we get, it will only be used to re-sign Melo. So, it's no big change either way.
My assumptions are that Melo, Ariza, and Whiteside can be resigned for $22.929M. Melo and Whiteside are UFA. We have bird rights to re-sign Whiteside and no bird rights to resign Melo, however we can offer Melo the MLE. Ariza is guaranteed $1.8M if we waive him and Blazers are guaranteed to retain him if we are willing to guarantee him an additional $11M. Blazers aren't going to guarantee him $11M, but should be able to renegotiate the unguaranteed portion of his 20-21 contract. Team's can't renegotiate downward the amount of guaranteed salary without waiving the player, but unguaranteed money and guarantee dates can be amended.
Here's what next year's roster will be approximately:
31,626,953 Lillard
29,354,152 CJ
12,888,889 Nurkic
5,406,255 Collins
6,129,000 Melo
7,800,000 Ariza
6,003,900 Hood
9,000,000 Whiteside
2,252,040 Simons
1,663,861 Trent
2,210,640 Little
3,707,400 2020 14th pick
1,737,274 VME
1,737,274 VME
________________________
121,517,638 20/21 active roster
4,757,775 dead money
________________________
126,275,413 Total payroll
239,737 If Hezonja opts in
________________________
126,515,150 Tax threshold projected at $141,000,000 before China virus
The following players are candidates for the final 2 roster spots. It might be better to trade that 44th pick. I doubt we can get a player better than our other options.
Hezonja
Swanigan
Gabriel
Hoard
2020 44th pick
We also have some trade exceptions. I doubt they get used because the money will likely be taxed. So, we would need a really awesome player to justify the cost.
TPE $7.07M
TPE $2.34M
As you can see, Olshey has done a fantastic job accumulating roster building assets. The impact of the China virus isn't going cost us any player. However, it probably will cost Jody more luxury taxes. We have only a $15M tax cushion and I expect cap numbers to go down more than that.
My assumptions are that Melo, Ariza, and Whiteside can be resigned for $22.929M. Melo and Whiteside are UFA. We have bird rights to re-sign Whiteside and no bird rights to resign Melo, however we can offer Melo the MLE. Ariza is guaranteed $1.8M if we waive him and Blazers are guaranteed to retain him if we are willing to guarantee him an additional $11M. Blazers aren't going to guarantee him $11M, but should be able to renegotiate the unguaranteed portion of his 20-21 contract. Team's can't renegotiate downward the amount of guaranteed salary without waiving the player, but unguaranteed money and guarantee dates can be amended.
Here's what next year's roster will be approximately:
31,626,953 Lillard
29,354,152 CJ
12,888,889 Nurkic
5,406,255 Collins
6,129,000 Melo
7,800,000 Ariza
6,003,900 Hood
9,000,000 Whiteside
2,252,040 Simons
1,663,861 Trent
2,210,640 Little
3,707,400 2020 14th pick
1,737,274 VME
1,737,274 VME
________________________
121,517,638 20/21 active roster
4,757,775 dead money
________________________
126,275,413 Total payroll
239,737 If Hezonja opts in
________________________
126,515,150 Tax threshold projected at $141,000,000 before China virus
The following players are candidates for the final 2 roster spots. It might be better to trade that 44th pick. I doubt we can get a player better than our other options.
Hezonja
Swanigan
Gabriel
Hoard
2020 44th pick
We also have some trade exceptions. I doubt they get used because the money will likely be taxed. So, we would need a really awesome player to justify the cost.
TPE $7.07M
TPE $2.34M
As you can see, Olshey has done a fantastic job accumulating roster building assets. The impact of the China virus isn't going cost us any player. However, it probably will cost Jody more luxury taxes. We have only a $15M tax cushion and I expect cap numbers to go down more than that.

Re: 2020 free agent targets and draft picks
-
- Bench Warmer
- Posts: 1,490
- And1: 388
- Joined: Jun 16, 2008
Re: 2020 free agent targets and draft picks
- d-train
- RealGM
- Posts: 21,227
- And1: 1,098
- Joined: Mar 26, 2001
-
Re: 2020 free agent targets and draft picks
Yeah, Blazers aren't going to surrender easily to luxury taxes next year. If there is a way, they will get under the tax. Depending on what happens with the salary cap, it might not be possible.
It's an unpleasant thought, but it's possible we get only halfway through Lillard's extension before the team is broken up and salary is jettisoned. I don't see a high probability the Blazers will enter into multiple years of repeater tax hell.
It's an unpleasant thought, but it's possible we get only halfway through Lillard's extension before the team is broken up and salary is jettisoned. I don't see a high probability the Blazers will enter into multiple years of repeater tax hell.

Re: 2020 free agent targets and draft picks
- d-train
- RealGM
- Posts: 21,227
- And1: 1,098
- Joined: Mar 26, 2001
-
Re: 2020 free agent targets and draft picks
HoopsFanAZ wrote:...
2. Getting Ariza to take less would be ideal.
3. Whiteside or Melo, not both. The SF minutes will shrink for Melo as Little and Trent pick up more. With HW, Nurkic and Collins, there are few minutes at PF. Whiteside for $9 million per? Okay. That's also tradeable. Nurkic dollars is maximum for HW. Melo vs. HW? I'd take Melo [... and it's hard for me to accept that I'm actually saying it as I've never been a fan of his].
Nobody is going to give Ariza $11M. Maybe Blazers considered it before the virus, but noway Blazers need to consider it now.
Melo is a better player than Whiteside, but Whiteside is a big center who can rebound and alter shots. I don't believe we have to chose. I think we can have both. And, I don't believe Olshey wants to rely on playing Nurkic big minutes. It would be great to have Nurkic play 35 per/game, but it's safer to play him 24-26 per/game and have him healthy for the playoffs.
I don't know how much signing everyone will cost. I am confident $23M is safely enough to sign Whiteside, Ariza, and Melo. Who knows, the market might be so devastated we can sign them for much less. It sort of makes sense that, since we had enough money under the tax threshold to sign them before the virus, the virus will change the market for everyone so that we will have enough money after the virus. Time will tell.

Re: 2020 free agent targets and draft picks
-
- Bench Warmer
- Posts: 1,490
- And1: 388
- Joined: Jun 16, 2008
Re: 2020 free agent targets and draft picks
- d-train
- RealGM
- Posts: 21,227
- And1: 1,098
- Joined: Mar 26, 2001
-
Re: 2020 free agent targets and draft picks
HoopsFanAZ wrote:A side benefit to having more than enough talented bodies on reasonable contracts? It makes for trade packages if the contracts are kept short.
The Dwight Jaynes piece on Hood for next season looks like a DONE DEAL (or almost) whether it's player opt-in or opt-out and re-sign. GOOD news.
It was a certainty that he would opt in when he was injured. He would be doing Blazers a favor if he opted out. Nobody is going to gamble on a injured mid-level player. Remember the bargain we got on Curry coming off injury. And, it was known Curry was ready to play. Hood is going to miss a minimum of half next season, maybe closer to the full season.

Re: 2020 free agent targets and draft picks
-
- Bench Warmer
- Posts: 1,490
- And1: 388
- Joined: Jun 16, 2008
Return to Portland Trail Blazers