Semi-OT: Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread

[HollowEarth]

One issue that America is facing is the idea that since healthy people will likely live there is no danger. While technically true for those people specifically, COVID-19 is a public health risk. That is as non-specific as it gets for everyone who comes into contact with the infected.

Unless the plan is to force everyone's grandparents, the poor, and those with pre-existing health conditions roll the dice, healthy people need to consider that they are part of the risk. Not potential part, an active person in the prevention of viral transmission.

Around my house in SF I can't park my car with so many people visiting the beach with friends and families. At the grocery stores it's the young people who forgo the masks and distancing measures. It's older people who are forced to share public spaces that are at risk. I can't stress how terrifying (and tragic) this outbreak is to vulnerable communities. If you're healthy please consider that a 96% survival rate may only apply to yourself.

Amen to that!

Interesting. In my area the older people (50+) at the market seem to be the most likely to be sans mask. It's a "tougher" area in general so I suppose it can be accrued to that mind set, but the younger kids mostly seem to be falling in line.

Concerning your "96% survival rate" though, please do understand that at least 85%+ of those who contract the virus are not tested. Do not for a second think that this virus has a 4% death rate or forward that nonsense.

Iceland has done random tests on 10% of its citizens. They found that about half of infected people at the time of testing showed no symptoms or such mild symptoms that they don't report being sick at all.

about half of its citizenry at any given time who have coronavirus but don't know it, will be asymptomatic – a large percentage many experts studying the virus have suspected, but have had little firm data to corroborate.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2020/04/10/coronavirus-covid-19-small-nations-iceland-big-data/2959797001/


The World Health Organization has reported that in China 80% of people who got the virus, had mild symptoms up to pneumonia. Most asymptomatic people later developed symptoms of the disease.

Approximately
80% of laboratory confirmed patients have had mild to moderate disease, which includes
non-pneumonia and pneumonia cases, 13.8% have severe disease (dyspnea, respiratory
frequency ≥30/minute, blood oxygen saturation ≤93%, PaO2/FiO2 ratio <300, and/or lung
infiltrates >50% of the lung field within 24-48 hours) and 6.1% are critical (respiratory
failure, septic shock, and/or multiple organ dysfunction/failure). Asymptomatic infection
has been reported, but the majority of the relatively rare cases who are asymptomatic on
the date of identification/report went on to develop disease. The proportion of truly
asymptomatic infections is unclear but appears to be relatively rare and does not appear to
be a major driver of transmission.

https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/who-china-joint-mission-on-covid-19-final-report.pdf

Germany's death rate is at 1.6 percent (16x the flu), which is the lowest so far. They have done aggressive testing, but they have also a really strong medical response.

Germany’s fatality rate stood at 1.6 percent, compared with 12 percent in Italy, around 10 percent in Spain, France and Britain, 4 percent in China and nearly 3 percent in the United States. Even South Korea, a model of flattening the curve, has a higher fatality rate, 1.8 percent.

[ . . . ]

“We have so much capacity now we are accepting patients from Italy, Spain and France,” said Susanne Herold, a specialist in lung infections at the hospital who has overseen the restructuring. “We are very strong in the intensive care area.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/04/world/europe/germany-coronavirus-death-rate.html

Edit: fixed a link

[SactoKingsFan]

Several stores are now requiring shoppers to wear a mask. Those without a mask are given a surgical mask.

Sent from my Pixel 3 using Tapatalk

[zimpy27]

Amen to that!

Interesting. In my area the older people (50+) at the market seem to be the most likely to be sans mask. It's a "tougher" area in general so I suppose it can be accrued to that mind set, but the younger kids mostly seem to be falling in line.

Concerning your "96% survival rate" though, please do understand that at least 85%+ of those who contract the virus are not tested. Do not for a second think that this virus has a 4% death rate or forward that nonsense.

Iceland has done random tests on 10% of its citizens. They found that about half of infected people at the time of testing showed no symptoms or such mild symptoms that they don't report being sick at all.

about half of its citizenry at any given time who have coronavirus but don't know it, will be asymptomatic – a large percentage many experts studying the virus have suspected, but have had little firm data to corroborate.

https://www.usatoday.com/news/


The World Health Organization has reported that in China 80% of people who got the virus, had mild symptoms up to pneumonia. Most asymptomatic people later developed symptoms of the disease.

Approximately
80% of laboratory confirmed patients have had mild to moderate disease, which includes
non-pneumonia and pneumonia cases, 13.8% have severe disease (dyspnea, respiratory
frequency ≥30/minute, blood oxygen saturation ≤93%, PaO2/FiO2 ratio <300, and/or lung
infiltrates >50% of the lung field within 24-48 hours) and 6.1% are critical (respiratory
failure, septic shock, and/or multiple organ dysfunction/failure). Asymptomatic infection
has been reported, but the majority of the relatively rare cases who are asymptomatic on
the date of identification/report went on to develop disease. The proportion of truly
asymptomatic infections is unclear but appears to be relatively rare and does not appear to
be a major driver of transmission.

https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/who-china-joint-mission-on-covid-19-final-report.pdf

Germany's death rate is at 1.6 percent (16x the flu), which is the lowest so far. They have done aggressive testing, but they have also a really strong medical response.

Germany’s fatality rate stood at 1.6 percent, compared with 12 percent in Italy, around 10 percent in Spain, France and Britain, 4 percent in China and nearly 3 percent in the United States. Even South Korea, a model of flattening the curve, has a higher fatality rate, 1.8 percent.

[ . . . ]

“We have so much capacity now we are accepting patients from Italy, Spain and France,” said Susanne Herold, a specialist in lung infections at the hospital who has overseen the restructuring. “We are very strong in the intensive care area.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/04/world/europe/germany-coronavirus-death-rate.html

Iceland have done the most testing and their death rate is looking close to 0.2%.

They tested people who were unwell and got about 1200.

Importantly, they have since tested thousands of people from a random population and found 0.8% were positive. Extrapolate that to their entire population of 365,000 and you have 2920 people (some show mild symptoms but most are asymptomatic).

In total they probably have ~4000 infected and 2000 are asymptomatic (50%). Only 8 people have died.

So currently they sit at 8/4000 = 0.2% mortality rate.

That's the most accurate number we have, it means the virus may be twice as deadly as the flu. Still very scary considering we have no herd immunity and how quickly it spreads.

[G R E Y]

Read on Twitter

[dhsilv2]

This is the old election polling issue we can't seem to EVER get past. So and so leads so and so by 3 points in the poll. At the bottom of the screen (hopefully it's there) it states there is a margin of error of +/-5. So news person says that someone is leading in the poll (technically true) and the idiot hearing this thinks that the poll says so and so has a majority of votes according to the "experts". Well no, the experts say it is way too close to conclude anything. Similarly, with models we went in knowing from the start that models were based on VERY limited and poor data and had huge margins for error. And people are now drawing the conclusion that models were wrong because the data was both poorly presented to them and worse, people just don't understand how to read data.

The end result is we now have people claiming the experts were wrong instead of understanding that most of the models were designed to help us prepare for the worst and give hospitals and government officials ideas on how to act. They were never intended to predict the actual number of deaths from them.

Exactly.

Another example of this is weather forecasting, where based on multiple factors you can have a % chance of something happening. If that doesn't happen than the meteorologist "lied" and "doesn't know what they're doing".

I also suspect that if this doesn't completely spiral out of control you'll see a Y2K hindsight effect, where the catastrophic scenarios are avoided because of increased attention and speed to remedy so people claim it to be a media driven hoax (which people are still claiming about corona now).

Yeah blame the people for not understanding a poorly constructed model.

Yes...that is a problem. And yes there is blame for that.

[dhsilv2]

One issue that America is facing is the idea that since healthy people will likely live there is no danger. While technically true for those people specifically, COVID-19 is a public health risk. That is as non-specific as it gets for everyone who comes into contact with the infected.

Unless the plan is to force everyone's grandparents, the poor, and those with pre-existing health conditions roll the dice, healthy people need to consider that they are part of the risk. Not potential part, an active person in the prevention of viral transmission.

Around my house in SF I can't park my car with so many people visiting the beach with friends and families. At the grocery stores it's the young people who forgo the masks and distancing measures. It's older people who are forced to share public spaces that are at risk. I can't stress how terrifying (and tragic) this outbreak is to vulnerable communities. If you're healthy please consider that a 96% survival rate may only apply to yourself.

It is also a problem that a lot of us with higher all be it not high risks don't seem to understand it. 60% of the US is higher risk...we're a fat country. We drink too much. We have too many smokers. This is a problem and sadly, I think the middle part of the county where this could really become a problem is going to be the group that gets this last.

We need to discuss how to reopen the economy at the same time realizing all of the above. This is a complex world.

[dhsilv2]

Just for the topic but I got my small little "poor person" payment from the government today. I'm not sure how many people are waiting for these things, but as it seems even my boss...who i have no idea why she's getting one but I guess duel incomes and kids and she makes more than her husband? Anyway for those wondering if others are getting them I did and I do fall into the group that's getting phased out which is important because the original statement was it would go out in revers income, of course I filed 2019 and had direct deposit setup.

[michaelm]

Interesting. In my area the older people (50+) at the market seem to be the most likely to be sans mask. It's a "tougher" area in general so I suppose it can be accrued to that mind set, but the younger kids mostly seem to be falling in line.

Concerning your "96% survival rate" though, please do understand that at least 85%+ of those who contract the virus are not tested. Do not for a second think that this virus has a 4% death rate or forward that nonsense.

Iceland has done random tests on 10% of its citizens. They found that about half of infected people at the time of testing showed no symptoms or such mild symptoms that they don't report being sick at all.

about half of its citizenry at any given time who have coronavirus but don't know it, will be asymptomatic – a large percentage many experts studying the virus have suspected, but have had little firm data to corroborate.

https://www.usatoday.com/news/


The World Health Organization has reported that in China 80% of people who got the virus, had mild symptoms up to pneumonia. Most asymptomatic people later developed symptoms of the disease.

Approximately
80% of laboratory confirmed patients have had mild to moderate disease, which includes
non-pneumonia and pneumonia cases, 13.8% have severe disease (dyspnea, respiratory
frequency ≥30/minute, blood oxygen saturation ≤93%, PaO2/FiO2 ratio <300, and/or lung
infiltrates >50% of the lung field within 24-48 hours) and 6.1% are critical (respiratory
failure, septic shock, and/or multiple organ dysfunction/failure). Asymptomatic infection
has been reported, but the majority of the relatively rare cases who are asymptomatic on
the date of identification/report went on to develop disease. The proportion of truly
asymptomatic infections is unclear but appears to be relatively rare and does not appear to
be a major driver of transmission.

https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/who-china-joint-mission-on-covid-19-final-report.pdf

Germany's death rate is at 1.6 percent (16x the flu), which is the lowest so far. They have done aggressive testing, but they have also a really strong medical response.

Germany’s fatality rate stood at 1.6 percent, compared with 12 percent in Italy, around 10 percent in Spain, France and Britain, 4 percent in China and nearly 3 percent in the United States. Even South Korea, a model of flattening the curve, has a higher fatality rate, 1.8 percent.

[ . . . ]

“We have so much capacity now we are accepting patients from Italy, Spain and France,” said Susanne Herold, a specialist in lung infections at the hospital who has overseen the restructuring. “We are very strong in the intensive care area.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/04/world/europe/germany-coronavirus-death-rate.html

Iceland have done the most testing and their death rate is looking close to 0.2%.

They tested people who were unwell and got about 1200.

Importantly, they have since tested thousands of people from a random population and found 0.8% were positive. Extrapolate that to their entire population of 365,000 and you have 2920 people (some show mild symptoms but most are asymptomatic).

In total they probably have ~4000 infected and 2000 are asymptomatic (50%). Only 8 people have died.

So currently they sit at 8/4000 = 0.2% mortality rate.

That's the most accurate number we have, it means the virus may be twice as deadly as the flu. Still very scary considering we have no herd immunity and how quickly it spreads.

Germany has a 2.6% death rate by my arithmetic, but with a large number of cases (132,000 odd), and which is still much better than the other nations in Europe with large numbers of cases, which like you I would probably attribute to their medical system.

Admittedly with far fewer cases (6,440) Australia still has a death rate (just) under 1%, and unlike Japan they count cases and deaths from disease contracted and incubated on cruise ships, with nearly half the deaths in Australia from such cruise ships, particularly from a sister ship to the Diamond Princess, the Ruby Princess which has already proven to be a worse disaster than the Diamond Princess.

Along I am sure with everyone else I still don't understand the epidemiology of this disease, but it seems to be worse and to have worse outcomes if it becomes rampant/if there are a high number of cases in a community. There has been some speculation that wide open spaces and less close packed communities in Australia and NZ may have been helpful, although no-one is assuming the danger has passed down under.

[Triples333]

The $600 Ui boosts just started going through along with the stimulus $1200. Fairly solid/streamlined implementation there.

[Slava]

Just for the topic but I got my small little "poor person" payment from the government today. I'm not sure how many people are waiting for these things, but as it seems even my boss...who i have no idea why she's getting one but I guess duel incomes and kids and she makes more than her husband? Anyway for those wondering if others are getting them I did and I do fall into the group that's getting phased out which is important because the original statement was it would go out in revers income, of course I filed 2019 and had direct deposit setup.

I'd suggest keeping expectations in check on any federal money. For one, it looks delayed because the IRS is severely understaffed to process tax returns let alone deliver every American a cash payment. Secondly if it is a federal payment that comes in like a tax return, your bank can hold onto it to service any outstanding debt like child support, student loan payments, mortgage payment, business loan etc. The chance of this finding your wallet is rather low.

[bidde]

Interesting. In my area the older people (50+) at the market seem to be the most likely to be sans mask. It's a "tougher" area in general so I suppose it can be accrued to that mind set, but the younger kids mostly seem to be falling in line.

Concerning your "96% survival rate" though, please do understand that at least 85%+ of those who contract the virus are not tested. Do not for a second think that this virus has a 4% death rate or forward that nonsense.

Iceland has done random tests on 10% of its citizens. They found that about half of infected people at the time of testing showed no symptoms or such mild symptoms that they don't report being sick at all.

about half of its citizenry at any given time who have coronavirus but don't know it, will be asymptomatic – a large percentage many experts studying the virus have suspected, but have had little firm data to corroborate.

https://www.usatoday.com/news/


The World Health Organization has reported that in China 80% of people who got the virus, had mild symptoms up to pneumonia. Most asymptomatic people later developed symptoms of the disease.

Approximately
80% of laboratory confirmed patients have had mild to moderate disease, which includes
non-pneumonia and pneumonia cases, 13.8% have severe disease (dyspnea, respiratory
frequency ≥30/minute, blood oxygen saturation ≤93%, PaO2/FiO2 ratio <300, and/or lung
infiltrates >50% of the lung field within 24-48 hours) and 6.1% are critical (respiratory
failure, septic shock, and/or multiple organ dysfunction/failure). Asymptomatic infection
has been reported, but the majority of the relatively rare cases who are asymptomatic on
the date of identification/report went on to develop disease. The proportion of truly
asymptomatic infections is unclear but appears to be relatively rare and does not appear to
be a major driver of transmission.

https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/who-china-joint-mission-on-covid-19-final-report.pdf

Germany's death rate is at 1.6 percent (16x the flu), which is the lowest so far. They have done aggressive testing, but they have also a really strong medical response.

Germany’s fatality rate stood at 1.6 percent, compared with 12 percent in Italy, around 10 percent in Spain, France and Britain, 4 percent in China and nearly 3 percent in the United States. Even South Korea, a model of flattening the curve, has a higher fatality rate, 1.8 percent.

[ . . . ]

“We have so much capacity now we are accepting patients from Italy, Spain and France,” said Susanne Herold, a specialist in lung infections at the hospital who has overseen the restructuring. “We are very strong in the intensive care area.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/04/world/europe/germany-coronavirus-death-rate.html

Iceland have done the most testing and their death rate is looking close to 0.2%.

They tested people who were unwell and got about 1200.

Importantly, they have since tested thousands of people from a random population and found 0.8% were positive. Extrapolate that to their entire population of 365,000 and you have 2920 people (some show mild symptoms but most are asymptomatic).

In total they probably have ~4000 infected and 2000 are asymptomatic (50%). Only 8 people have died.

So currently they sit at 8/4000 = 0.2% mortality rate.

That's the most accurate number we have, it means the virus may be twice as deadly as the flu. Still very scary considering we have no herd immunity and how quickly it spreads.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30243-7/fulltext
I'd say this is a much more accurate analysis than your napkin math here.

[Arman_tanzarian]

The $600 Ui boosts just started going through along with the stimulus $1200. Fairly solid/streamlined implementation there.

Man you guys getting screwed in America

[basketballRob]

Interesting. In my area the older people (50+) at the market seem to be the most likely to be sans mask. It's a "tougher" area in general so I suppose it can be accrued to that mind set, but the younger kids mostly seem to be falling in line.

Concerning your "96% survival rate" though, please do understand that at least 85%+ of those who contract the virus are not tested. Do not for a second think that this virus has a 4% death rate or forward that nonsense.

Iceland has done random tests on 10% of its citizens. They found that about half of infected people at the time of testing showed no symptoms or such mild symptoms that they don't report being sick at all.

about half of its citizenry at any given time who have coronavirus but don't know it, will be asymptomatic – a large percentage many experts studying the virus have suspected, but have had little firm data to corroborate.

https://www.usatoday.com/news/


The World Health Organization has reported that in China 80% of people who got the virus, had mild symptoms up to pneumonia. Most asymptomatic people later developed symptoms of the disease.

Approximately
80% of laboratory confirmed patients have had mild to moderate disease, which includes
non-pneumonia and pneumonia cases, 13.8% have severe disease (dyspnea, respiratory
frequency ≥30/minute, blood oxygen saturation ≤93%, PaO2/FiO2 ratio <300, and/or lung
infiltrates >50% of the lung field within 24-48 hours) and 6.1% are critical (respiratory
failure, septic shock, and/or multiple organ dysfunction/failure). Asymptomatic infection
has been reported, but the majority of the relatively rare cases who are asymptomatic on
the date of identification/report went on to develop disease. The proportion of truly
asymptomatic infections is unclear but appears to be relatively rare and does not appear to
be a major driver of transmission.

https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/who-china-joint-mission-on-covid-19-final-report.pdf

Germany's death rate is at 1.6 percent (16x the flu), which is the lowest so far. They have done aggressive testing, but they have also a really strong medical response.

Germany’s fatality rate stood at 1.6 percent, compared with 12 percent in Italy, around 10 percent in Spain, France and Britain, 4 percent in China and nearly 3 percent in the United States. Even South Korea, a model of flattening the curve, has a higher fatality rate, 1.8 percent.

[ . . . ]

“We have so much capacity now we are accepting patients from Italy, Spain and France,” said Susanne Herold, a specialist in lung infections at the hospital who has overseen the restructuring. “We are very strong in the intensive care area.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/04/world/europe/germany-coronavirus-death-rate.html

Iceland have done the most testing and their death rate is looking close to 0.2%.

They tested people who were unwell and got about 1200.

Importantly, they have since tested thousands of people from a random population and found 0.8% were positive. Extrapolate that to their entire population of 365,000 and you have 2920 people (some show mild symptoms but most are asymptomatic).

In total they probably have ~4000 infected and 2000 are asymptomatic (50%). Only 8 people have died.

So currently they sit at 8/4000 = 0.2% mortality rate.

That's the most accurate number we have, it means the virus may be twice as deadly as the flu. Still very scary considering we have no herd immunity and how quickly it spreads.

I think they only tested 20 year olds. It's by far not the most accurate number without all age data and other factors.

For example, Florida could only test young people and make their death rate look like .02%.



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[Marcus_Shart]

Just for the topic but I got my small little "poor person" payment from the government today. I'm not sure how many people are waiting for these things, but as it seems even my boss...who i have no idea why she's getting one but I guess duel incomes and kids and she makes more than her husband? Anyway for those wondering if others are getting them I did and I do fall into the group that's getting phased out which is important because the original statement was it would go out in revers income, of course I filed 2019 and had direct deposit setup.

Just checked my account after reading this, and I got mine as well.

[Marcus_Shart]

Just for the topic but I got my small little "poor person" payment from the government today. I'm not sure how many people are waiting for these things, but as it seems even my boss...who i have no idea why she's getting one but I guess duel incomes and kids and she makes more than her husband? Anyway for those wondering if others are getting them I did and I do fall into the group that's getting phased out which is important because the original statement was it would go out in revers income, of course I filed 2019 and had direct deposit setup.

I'd suggest keeping expectations in check on any federal money. For one, it looks delayed because the IRS is severely understaffed to process tax returns let alone deliver every American a cash payment. Secondly if it is a federal payment that comes in like a tax return, your bank can hold onto it to service any outstanding debt like child support, student loan payments, mortgage payment, business loan etc. The chance of this finding your wallet is rather low.

If you received any money back on your taxes than you should get it. They would have taken out whatever they could from that. Part of my state refund was taken for a speeding ticket for example.

[MotownMadness]

Mine just came a couple hours ago, $3900

[Triples333]

The $600 Ui boosts just started going through along with the stimulus $1200. Fairly solid/streamlined implementation there.

Man you guys getting screwed in America

It is $600 a week extra on top of one's unemployment pay ($150-$600 for most, depends on your income and your state). It's actually a hefty pay raise for a huge chunk of America. Not seeing how that is being screwed.

[My Main Man]

What science are you referring to? That’s all I asked.

We’re referring to virtually all known studies of virology.

Early testing was skewed because it’s based only on testing in clinics/hospitals. Younger people are generally affected less seriously than older people so they go to the hospital less, so there ends up being little to no testing done on young people. Since then, several people under the age of 10 have died from this, proving it affects young people. Hard numbers = science.

That was not the question I asked.

Weird.

Then you need to try again and ask in a clearer way. Your questions were “Like the models?” and “I was just asking what science you were referring to”. Those are both super vague but it sounded like you were alluding to early models that implied kids weren’t affected even though those early models were skewed and have been proven wrong. So what’s your actual question?

[Bottomsouth]

We’re referring to virtually all known studies of virology.

Early testing was skewed because it’s based only on testing in clinics/hospitals. Younger people are generally affected less seriously than older people so they go to the hospital less, so there ends up being little to no testing done on young people. Since then, several people under the age of 10 have died from this, proving it affects young people. Hard numbers = science.

That was not the question I asked.

Weird.

Then you need to try again and ask in a clearer way. Your questions were “Like the models?” and “I was just asking what science you were referring to”. Those are both super vague but it sounded like you were alluding to early models that implied kids weren’t affected even though those early models were skewed and have been proven wrong. So what’s your actual question?

I asked where is the science to... if the children went back to school then they would spread it to adults and so on as the original post to where opening schools no matter what extent is not possible. Please provide the actual link with scientific facts to support it.

[DowJones]

Gyms are mostly filled w/ healthy people though. I could see the argument that they are way less of a risk to open than other things - for ex. church services or visitations at nursing homes.

And gyms are only a scam if you don’t use them.

If you live with a high risk person, of course don’t go cause you could catch it and bring it home. At some point people are just going to have to be responsible for being smart about this stuff if we ever want to get back to normal. These blanket policies of nothing is allowed by anyone ever no matter what aren’t sustainable long term.

A young healthy person who lives alone or w/ other young healthy people going to the gym probably provides a lot more benefits than the risk it creates. Especially if you set capacity limits and disinfect equipment regularly like many gyms already do.

I hate to do this, but things won't ever go back to being the "normal" that you mention. We are truly living in a new age. For the better. It's those that can't accept this reality that are having the most trouble. But as a society we will adapt. In the same way we looked at travel post 9/11. The worst possible outcome would be to attempt "normal".

The one great positive to this lock-down will be who/what people prioritize (i.e. Gyms).

I don't view extra security checks at airports to be a departure from normal. I think some things will change, but for the most part life will be normal.