Davis Bertans "the Latvian Laser"

[closg00]

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Thinking about which of those teams might be interested in Bertans.

Atlanta could do it. But now that they have two full time centers, Collins will probably become a full time PF. And they've got the SF position covered with Hunter and Reddish. Do they want to pay Bertans $15M just to cover the 14 minutes Collins doesn't play at PF? Do they want to commit 2021 money when they could otherwise be a player in free agency?

New York remains overloaded at PF, and they presumably want to move Barrett to full time SF. If they sign a big contract lasting beyond 2021, I think it would be for a guard like Bogdanovic or Van Vleet, not another power forward.

Detroit is in total rebuilding mode now that Drummond is gone. I don't see them signing a 27-year-old vet

Miami already has Duncan Robinson, Kelly Olynyk and Meyers Leonard in the spot-up shooter role. And they're keeping their powder dry for 2021. They won't go after Bertans.

Charlotte might consider it. They're thin at forward and a good shooter provides spacing to make it easier to develop other positions.

Phoenix drafted Cameron Johnson to fill the same role, and he's doing so pretty nicely. On the other hand, they don't really have a PF going forward so they might throw their cap money at someone. I think a more defensive-minded guy like Millsap, Morris or Jerami Grant would make more sense for them, though. There's also Gallinari.

So really, I think Charlotte is the biggest threat. Atlanta has so much money, they're a concern too.

ATL is happy with the progression of Huerter and they also drafted De'Andre Hunter and Cam Reddish, they don't seem ready to add vets at this time at this position, but you never know.

[payitforward]

I wrote the quoted sections below back in late December. Time for another look at Bertans' season.

Happily, even after going 6-28 in the last 2 games, Davis is still scoring more points more efficiently this season than last, overall. Per 36 minutes, he's producing just under 5.2 more points than he did in SA last year on just over 3.9 more possessions....

These guys are not machines, so you expect small changes as weeks & months pass. Davis is now producing 4.8 more points per 36 than he did last year. On 4.1 extra possessions.

His scoring efficiency bump from last year to this year is quite small: his TS% is up from 63.2% last year to 64% this year. But... that's on a 37% jump in usage, so it's definitely significant -- impressive, in fact....

Bertans TS% has fallen to 61.9% -- a bit below last year. IOW, he has returned to his mean. Still, even those extra points are being scored at a slightly above average TS% -- overall, Davis is still an elite scorer.

The rest of his numbers this year are almost exactly the same as last year & the year before. & those numbers are significantly sub-par for an NBA 4....

Those numbers haven't changed.

Again, scoring numbers do rise/fall from week to week during a season. What we should be keeping an eye on, I'd say, is the trend between now & the end of the season. Not that we're likely to decide not to retain Davis if we can -- we turned down some pretty rich offers for him! But we'll have to decide what we want to pay him.

[payitforward]

Well, you can forget all that after last night's outburst against the Warriors!

[Ruzious]

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Thinking about which of those teams might be interested in Bertans.

Atlanta could do it. But now that they have two full time centers, Collins will probably become a full time PF. And they've got the SF position covered with Hunter and Reddish. Do they want to pay Bertans $15M just to cover the 14 minutes Collins doesn't play at PF? Do they want to commit 2021 money when they could otherwise be a player in free agency?

New York remains overloaded at PF, and they presumably want to move Barrett to full time SF. If they sign a big contract lasting beyond 2021, I think it would be for a guard like Bogdanovic or Van Vleet, not another power forward.

Detroit is in total rebuilding mode now that Drummond is gone. I don't see them signing a 27-year-old vet

Miami already has Duncan Robinson, Kelly Olynyk and Meyers Leonard in the spot-up shooter role. And they're keeping their powder dry for 2021. They won't go after Bertans.

Charlotte might consider it. They're thin at forward and a good shooter provides spacing to make it easier to develop other positions.

Phoenix drafted Cameron Johnson to fill the same role, and he's doing so pretty nicely. On the other hand, they don't really have a PF going forward so they might throw their cap money at someone. I think a more defensive-minded guy like Millsap, Morris or Jerami Grant would make more sense for them, though. There's also Gallinari.

So really, I think Charlotte is the biggest threat. Atlanta has so much money, they're a concern too.

ATL is happy with the progression of Huerter and they also drafted De'Andre Hunter and Cam Reddish, they don't seem ready to add vets at this time at this position, but you never know.

I'm not sure any of those teams are going to be overwhelmingly interested in using their space on Bertans. That would leave teams with just the MLE. I'm thinking that we'll be able to keep him by offering maybe just a million or 2 over the MLE. And I don't think he's worth much more than that. His interior defense is bad, and his rebounding is a problem. His shooting is obviously great, and he's a smart player.

[nate33]

Spoiler:

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Thinking about which of those teams might be interested in Bertans.

Atlanta could do it. But now that they have two full time centers, Collins will probably become a full time PF. And they've got the SF position covered with Hunter and Reddish. Do they want to pay Bertans $15M just to cover the 14 minutes Collins doesn't play at PF? Do they want to commit 2021 money when they could otherwise be a player in free agency?

New York remains overloaded at PF, and they presumably want to move Barrett to full time SF. If they sign a big contract lasting beyond 2021, I think it would be for a guard like Bogdanovic or Van Vleet, not another power forward.

Detroit is in total rebuilding mode now that Drummond is gone. I don't see them signing a 27-year-old vet

Miami already has Duncan Robinson, Kelly Olynyk and Meyers Leonard in the spot-up shooter role. And they're keeping their powder dry for 2021. They won't go after Bertans.

Charlotte might consider it. They're thin at forward and a good shooter provides spacing to make it easier to develop other positions.

Phoenix drafted Cameron Johnson to fill the same role, and he's doing so pretty nicely. On the other hand, they don't really have a PF going forward so they might throw their cap money at someone. I think a more defensive-minded guy like Millsap, Morris or Jerami Grant would make more sense for them, though. There's also Gallinari.

So really, I think Charlotte is the biggest threat. Atlanta has so much money, they're a concern too.

ATL is happy with the progression of Huerter and they also drafted De'Andre Hunter and Cam Reddish, they don't seem ready to add vets at this time at this position, but you never know.

I'm not sure any of those teams are going to be overwhelmingly interested in using their space on Bertans. That would leave teams with just the MLE. I'm thinking that we'll be able to keep him by offering maybe just a million or 2 over the MLE. And I don't think he's worth much more than that. His interior defense is bad, and his rebounding is a problem. His shooting is obviously great, and he's a smart player.

Yeah, that's what I'm hoping. Ideally, we get him on a 3-year deal for about $36M, paying him a declining salary: basically $13M next year, $12M the year after and $11M the year after that.

[nate33]

I'm not sure any of those teams are going to be overwhelmingly interested in using their space on Bertans. That would leave teams with just the MLE. I'm thinking that we'll be able to keep him by offering maybe just a million or 2 over the MLE. And I don't think he's worth much more than that. His interior defense is bad, and his rebounding is a problem. His shooting is obviously great, and he's a smart player.

I also think it's worth mentioning that he is taking some seriously high-degree-of-difficulty three's. John Wall is elite at finding the open spot up shooter. Bertans should get more open looks next year. And when he is open, it's ridiculous how good he is. (He is currently averaging 49% on wide looks from three.)

[tontoz]

The GS announcers loved Bertans' display last night.

Watch on YouTube

[payitforward]

I would like to suggest 3 things: the 1st will not be controversial. The 2d & 3d I'm sure will be. I think they are all 3 correct -- & equally obvious.

Here they are:

1. Exchanging a tpe for Davis Bertans was an extraordinarily smart move on the part of Tommy Sheppard. Anyone disagree? I didn't think so. Obviously a great move.

2. Failing to trade Bertans to Boston at the deadline for a R1 pick was a major mistake.

3. We should budget no more than $10m first year for Davis in a 3-year contract offer. If, that is, we choose to re-sign him.

It's important for me to note that I like Davis Bertans. On this board, I think only doc & I have been aware of him since the first talk of him coming over. Maybe there were a couple of others who knew of him? I followed him in run-up to the 2011 draft, & I thought he was a bargain pick at #42 that year. I was surprised that it took 5 years for him to come over.

IOW, I'm not "anti-Bertans." Not in the slightest.

[payitforward]

Why should we have gone for the Boston trade? The answer is easy: we were offered a lot -- more than he could be worth to a team like ours with no chance whatever of contending for anything any time soon.

Of course, we don't know which of Boston's 3 R1 picks they offered -- but I assume it was the #17 (I assume so, b/c our counter was to ask for 2 R1 picks -- had they offered the #26 or 30, the natural counter would be to ask for the #17). They wanted him a lot -- & one can see why. Had the season continued, he'd have been a big help in the playoffs to a team like theirs.

In fact, I feel some confidence that we could have gotten that #17 plus Boston's R2 pick at #46. Now... we don't know who we could have gotten at those spots, but at least at this point it looks like at #46 we could pick up Xavier Tillman.

Keep in mind that we were also talking about a trade of our #9 for the Nets' #20 & Jarrett Allen. With the #20 & the 17, we are in a position to trade up for the #5. We'd have used Bertans & our #9 pick to come away with Jarrett Allen, say Deni Avdija at #5, & Tillman.

Or, if we simply used our #9 pick to nab, say, Tyrese Haliburton, then Davis would have brought us perhaps Aaron Nesmith (who shot 52% on 3's this year, btw) & Tillman.

[DCZards]

C’mon PIF. I’m betting that most of the posters here knew who Bertans was well before he joined the Zards. I believe we have a pretty savvy group of NBA fans on this board who watch a lot of pro basketball, including the Spurs. Bertans long-range marksmanship would scare the bejeebers out of me whenever the Zards played the Spurs. So, yes, I was well aware of him.

As far as what the Zards could have gotten from Boston for Bertans, well I think you agree that that’s a big unknown. It could be that they may have been able to get the 17th pick and, possibly, another pick. But I doubt it.

My guess is that the Celts weren’t willing to give up the 17th pick and were probably offering the 26th… and, maybe, the 30th pick. Although I got the impression that Boston was only willing to part with one first round pick.

[TheBabyMaker]

I would like to suggest 3 things: the 1st will not be controversial. The 2d & 3d I'm sure will be. I think they are all 3 correct -- & equally obvious.

Here they are:

1. Exchanging a tpe for Davis Bertans was an extraordinarily smart move on the part of Tommy Sheppard. Anyone disagree? I didn't think so. Obviously a great move.

2. Failing to trade Bertans to Boston at the deadline for a R1 pick was a major mistake.

3. We should budget no more than $10m first year for Davis in a 3-year contract offer. If, that is, we choose to re-sign him.

It's important for me to note that I like Davis Bertans. On this board, I think only doc & I have been aware of him since the first talk of him coming over. Maybe there were a couple of others who knew of him? I followed him in run-up to the 2011 draft, & I thought he was a bargain pick at #42 that year. I was surprised that it took 5 years for him to come over.

IOW, I'm not "anti-Bertans." Not in the slightest.

I'm quitting this board. Good bye.

[gambitx777]

We have no idea how this thing is going to effect the cap or free agency as a whole . This of season could be. A **** show.

Sent from my SM-G965U1 using RealGM mobile app

[payitforward]

C’mon PIF. I’m betting that most of the posters here knew who Bertans was well before he joined the Zards. I believe we have a pretty savvy group of NBA fans on this board who watch a lot of pro basketball, including the Spurs. Bertans long-range marksmanship would scare the bejeebers out of me whenever the Zards played the Spurs. So, yes, I was well aware of him.

As far as what the Zards could have gotten from Boston for Bertans, well I think you agree that that’s a big unknown. It could be that they may have been able to get the 17th pick and, possibly, another pick. But I doubt it.

My guess is that the Celts weren’t willing to give up the 17th pick and were probably offering the 26th… and, maybe, the 30th pick. Although I got the impression that Boston was only willing to part with one first round pick.

Fair enough; you may be right -- my real point with that was to make it clear that I like Davis Bertans. As I say, the trade for him was a tremendous move on Tommy's part.

You may also be right about what Boston's offer was. They did seem to want him quite a bit -- all the same I'm speculating about the #17 pick.

[payitforward]

I would like to suggest 3 things: the 1st will not be controversial. The 2d & 3d I'm sure will be. I think they are all 3 correct -- & equally obvious.

Here they are:

1. Exchanging a tpe for Davis Bertans was an extraordinarily smart move on the part of Tommy Sheppard. Anyone disagree? I didn't think so. Obviously a great move.

2. Failing to trade Bertans to Boston at the deadline for a R1 pick was a major mistake.

3. We should budget no more than $10m first year for Davis in a 3-year contract offer. If, that is, we choose to re-sign him.

It's important for me to note that I like Davis Bertans. On this board, I think only doc & I have been aware of him since the first talk of him coming over. Maybe there were a couple of others who knew of him? I followed him in run-up to the 2011 draft, & I thought he was a bargain pick at #42 that year. I was surprised that it took 5 years for him to come over.

IOW, I'm not "anti-Bertans." Not in the slightest.

I'm quitting this board. Good bye.

Oh for... dude! What? You can't stand controversy? Disagreement? We were 24-40 when the season was disrupted. How good do you think Bertans is, really?

Yes, he is a tremendous 3-point shooter. An average 4 makes the 3 at 35.9% rate. Davis was at 42.4% this year. & he shot 12 of them per 40 minutes -- which means that his 6.5% better rate he makes almost @.8 more of those 12 shots than an average 4.

That adds 2.4 points. But, there's also the benefit of his spacing -- which leaves other guys open more often than they would be without him. That should help their 2 & 3 pt. FG%s. So... who shot a higher eFG% this year than last?

[payitforward]

Ok, well, I see this isn't stimulating much action -- so... I take it back!

Yes, I think you are all over-valuing Davis, but... so what if that's what I think?

I was just trying to get some activity going here. In the meantime, the level has picked up on its own. Good.

[CP War Hawks]

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Thinking about which of those teams might be interested in Bertans.

Atlanta could do it. But now that they have two full time centers, Collins will probably become a full time PF. And they've got the SF position covered with Hunter and Reddish. Do they want to pay Bertans $15M just to cover the 14 minutes Collins doesn't play at PF? Do they want to commit 2021 money when they could otherwise be a player in free agency?

New York remains overloaded at PF, and they presumably want to move Barrett to full time SF. If they sign a big contract lasting beyond 2021, I think it would be for a guard like Bogdanovic or Van Vleet, not another power forward.

Detroit is in total rebuilding mode now that Drummond is gone. I don't see them signing a 27-year-old vet

Miami already has Duncan Robinson, Kelly Olynyk and Meyers Leonard in the spot-up shooter role. And they're keeping their powder dry for 2021. They won't go after Bertans.

Charlotte might consider it. They're thin at forward and a good shooter provides spacing to make it easier to develop other positions.

Phoenix drafted Cameron Johnson to fill the same role, and he's doing so pretty nicely. On the other hand, they don't really have a PF going forward so they might throw their cap money at someone. I think a more defensive-minded guy like Millsap, Morris or Jerami Grant would make more sense for them, though. There's also Gallinari.

So really, I think Charlotte is the biggest threat. Atlanta has so much money, they're a concern too.

ATL is happy with the progression of Huerter and they also drafted De'Andre Hunter and Cam Reddish, they don't seem ready to add vets at this time at this position, but you never know.

I'm not sure any of those teams are going to be overwhelmingly interested in using their space on Bertans. That would leave teams with just the MLE. I'm thinking that we'll be able to keep him by offering maybe just a million or 2 over the MLE. And I don't think he's worth much more than that. His interior defense is bad, and his rebounding is a problem. His shooting is obviously great, and he's a smart player.

2 months have pass since these posts. From what I know of Schlenk, Bertans should be in play for the Hawks. They need to spend a third of the cap space, they need a plus 40% 3 shooter, and need another power forward.

He can pair with Collins for a high octane frontcourt and compliments Capela nicely as the stretch 4. Jerami Grant is the other hybrid forward they may look into instead if Bertans re ups. The Hawks have openly said they want that knockdown shooter.

[Ruzious]

ATL is happy with the progression of Huerter and they also drafted De'Andre Hunter and Cam Reddish, they don't seem ready to add vets at this time at this position, but you never know.

I'm not sure any of those teams are going to be overwhelmingly interested in using their space on Bertans. That would leave teams with just the MLE. I'm thinking that we'll be able to keep him by offering maybe just a million or 2 over the MLE. And I don't think he's worth much more than that. His interior defense is bad, and his rebounding is a problem. His shooting is obviously great, and he's a smart player.

2 months have pass since these posts. From what I know of Schlenk, Bertans should be in play for the Hawks. They need to spend a third of the cap space, they need a plus 40% 3 shooter, and need another power forward.

He can pair with Collins for a high octane frontcourt and compliments Capela nicely as the stretch 4. Jerami Grant is the other hybrid forward they may look into instead if Bertans re ups. The Hawks have openly said they want that knockdown shooter.

Good points. I just assumed they were planning on moving Collins full-time to PF since they have Capela and backup centers - I like Bruno's potential, though he's had a rough rookie year, and they got Skal.

[nate33]

2 months have pass since these posts. From what I know of Schlenk, Bertans should be in play for the Hawks. They need to spend a third of the cap space, they need a plus 40% 3 shooter, and need another power forward.

He can pair with Collins for a high octane frontcourt and compliments Capela nicely as the stretch 4. Jerami Grant is the other hybrid forward they may look into instead if Bertans re ups. The Hawks have openly said they want that knockdown shooter.

I considered Atlanta as the second most likely suitor behind Charlotte. But still, they don't have a lot of minutes available at forward with Collins, Hunter and Reddish all needing minutes. Are they really going to want to spend $15M a year or more for Bertans to get 20 minutes a night off the bench?

[payitforward]

I think some kind of deal has been worked out already for Bertans to remain a Wizard. In fact, I'm almost certain of it. Why? Because, if there wasn't a deal it would have been impossible to turn down the offer of a R1 pick for him.

It's one thing if you turn down a R1 pick for a player you have control over. It's quite different to turn it down so that you can have a shot at re-signing the guy. Hell, even if you take the deal -- you still have a shot at re-signing him!

In any case, acquiring Davis for a TPE & then trading him for a R1 pick a few months later would have been one of the most brilliant pieces of GM work in many years. In effect, that's trading a TPE for a R1 pick!

If you are an NBA GM, if you work for Ted Leonsis (who is, after all, an experienced businessman), you'd better not turn that down & then see the decision fall apart when the guy goes somewhere else! That's incompetence: you've turned a triumph into a step towards getting fired.

So... mistake tho it was to turn down that deal ("a bird in the hand..."), I'll be very surprised if Davis Bertans isn't a Wizard next year.

Edit: In fact, if we don't have a deal worked out, we are in even bigger trouble. Tommy & Ted will feel they can't afford not to retain Bertans -- otherwise the Wizards look like utter idiots (having been offered a R1 pick for a guy, turning it down, then losing him for nothing) -- which means they'll pay any amount of money to keep Bertans.

&, of course, if I'm the GM of one of our opponents -- I make them pay as much as possible! Another reason it would have been smart to take the R1 pick from Boston.... Oh well....

[CP War Hawks]

2 months have pass since these posts. From what I know of Schlenk, Bertans should be in play for the Hawks. They need to spend a third of the cap space, they need a plus 40% 3 shooter, and need another power forward.

He can pair with Collins for a high octane frontcourt and compliments Capela nicely as the stretch 4. Jerami Grant is the other hybrid forward they may look into instead if Bertans re ups. The Hawks have openly said they want that knockdown shooter.

I considered Atlanta as the second most likely suitor behind Charlotte. But still, they don't have a lot of minutes available at forward with Collins, Hunter and Reddish all needing minutes. Are they really going to want to spend $15M a year or more for Bertans to get 20 minutes a night off the bench?

Short answer is yes. Bertans is insurance in case something happens with Collins. My take is there is some substance about Atl not wanting to pay his asking price which is minimally the Jaylen Brown contract.