Semi-OT: Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread

[HotRocks34]

New research:

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[NBAFan93]

Yeah, it's late will have to read up more tomorrow. Just mean that they're skipping the animal portion of testing in Phase 1 to go directly to humans. cheers.

Same here.

I'm not in a clinical lab, so I'm not entirely familiar with details of all stages. I'd guess it's just a rush of each, but can't say for certain and late here too. Cheers my man, if you find it let me know, I'd love to learn something .

If I had to guess its "rush" in that they're doing things like adding extra workers or adding shifts (like adding 3rd shift work where it's not normal).

Ultimately the FDA isn't going to mass approve something too fast. It's why these things are in place, stuff used to happen faster and well...not good. To anyone who doesn't think so google elixer of sulfanilamide or thalidomide. That's why these trials are going on (among other reasons).

Agreed. You can’t start injecting masses of otherwise healthy people w/ a vaccine that hasn’t been fully tested. That’s very different than trying an experimental drug on an already infected person who is close to death.

You gonna let them inject your 10 year old kid who very likely wouldn’t even have more than a cold if he caught the virus w/ something that is brand new w/ who knows what kind of unknown side effects lurking that haven’t been discovered? What about your infant? What about pregnant women?

They got to do their due diligence in testing and them holding something like “you can’t go back to work or school unless you have this brand new vaccine that we just developed 3 months ago” over peoples heads would cause riots.

[NBAFan93]

New research:

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So maybe all those people freaking out about people on the beaches need to chill?

[HotRocks34]

I posted this in another thread and figured I should probably post it here. It's very informative, especially for those who don't watch the daily briefings.
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Just a note on testing, for people who don't watch the daily task force briefings.

You can watch this for yourself starting at 53:00 into the video of the daily briefing yesterday:

Watch on YouTube

Summary:

In order to control an outbreak (given data for Italy and New Orleans), Birx says, a region needs to be able to do at least 27 tests per thousand inhabitants. Birx uses the example of New Orleans (27 tests per thousand) and Italy (around 20 tests per thousand) to make the point. Basically, if you have that testing capacity you should be in good shape to manage the virus, even if you experience an outbreak.

She then does a slide to show that 47 out of 50 states currently have the capacity to do at least 27 tests per thousand people per month. The states that don't have the capacity are Montana, Oklahoma and Oregon. And the task force is working to get those states up to speed.

Thus, the testing piece of things looks in solid shape. This testing (diagnostic) that Birx talks about does not include the surveillance and sentinel (both background testing components to keep vigilant for any new outbreaks) testing, either.

[HotRocks34]

New research:

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So maybe all those people freaking out about people on the beaches need to chill?

It could be that beaches may be a "killing field" in terms of wiping out the virus. Or at least stopping its spread.

At least sunlit beaches.

These kinds of virus do not seem to like sunlight, warmth, or humidity. It's nice to get research to back that up.

[Fairview4Life]

New research:

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So maybe all those people freaking out about people on the beaches need to chill?

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[NBAFan93]

New research:

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So maybe all those people freaking out about people on the beaches need to chill?

It could be that beaches may be a "killing field" in terms of wiping out the virus. Or at least stopping its spread.

At least sunlit beaches.

These kinds of virus do not seem to like sunlight, warmth, or humidity. It's nice to get research to back that up.

And what virus ever did? Like honestly. Being outside during nice weather, even in a crowd, has never been known to get people sick. It’s being couped up in close quarters sharing the same uncirculated air that has always been the problem w/ spreading illness.

All these big events that are being cancelled out of fear should just be moved outside. High schools should have their proms and graduations on the football field . I’m being overly optimistic I know, but it’s not a horrible idea.

[bulliedog8]

And what virus ever did? Like honestly. Being outside during nice weather, even in a crowd, has never been known to get people sick. It’s being couped up in close quarters sharing the same uncirculated air that has always been the problem w/ spreading illness.

All these big events that are being cancelled out of fear should just be moved outside. High schools should have their proms and graduations on the football field . I’m being overly optimistic I know, but it’s not a horrible idea.

WOW! How dare you be optimistic. And why do you have a (smart) plan to put in practice? Dont you know you need to be all doom and gloom and cry that life is over? You need to be afraid and fear even taking 1 step out of your house because you will die.

/s

[dhsilv2]

If the infection rate is 50+ times higher than reported, that means the death rate is very low. If that's the case, I think we need to start opening up the country before our economy totally collapses.

That's me over 30 million americans have had it....which actually once they're over it, might be enough to start with a good buff all be it not really herd immunity. That said, we can't really speculate given that what the death rate is as people will have this for weeks, and in some cases it seems upwards of a month before passing away AND that's without accounting for those who have serious damage caused by this who could die from those complications. Or in other words...we're still not sure about much of anything. Other than we still can't test enough people, now 4 months into this mess.

"We can't really speculate" and yet we shut down key portions of the entire country based on speculation.

While I agree with social distancing and staying at home to a large degree, there's not actually any data or evidence that opening things up (with precautions in place) would noticeably increase infection or death.

Point being, the "not sure about much of anything" works both ways. If you want people to remain at home, you're basing that order/opinion on the same ignorance.

Well again, lets go back into our entry level idiot derivative finance courses. We can pretty much state what the best case it...the economy as normal. Lets assume we have a hybrid, economy under crazy restrictions, and then we got today with our 100% essential workers only model.

It really is one of those plug in your probability of each scenario and the impact and go with it.

The thing is, the worse case is pretty horrible and even if we think it's a 25% chance...that kind of basic model says lock it down. That's what the medical people have convinced even the most business forward thinkers in this country of and nearly every country in the world. So yeah, we don't know....we could be wrong....but the expected future value of this lockdown is vastly better than the expected future value of the alternatives and that's why every country more or less has done this. Now we're running these same simply basic models on restarting things and we'll have to figure the math out on that.

in case you don't know this lets use a really simple idea.

3 possible outcomes

A. 10% chance - 1000 loss
B. 50% chance - 100 loss
C. 40% chance - 0 loss

When you're presented with this, you have to protect against option A even if it's only one in 10 because the expected loss if you don't is 100 while B is 50 and C is 0. The risk is too great to take the chance. This is effectively where we were when we shut down. Today I think we're getting more clarity, and hopefully can can make decisions that are more clear, but exponential losses even if unlikely very quickly become to risky to avoid. We see this in finance all the time.

[dhsilv2]

For those who are basically saying that they don't believe in the flu vaccine therefore they won't be getting the Covid-19 vaccine, are you insinuating that the Covid-19 is just another variant of the seasonal flu? Still in denial of how potent this virus is?

It's not at all the flue. It's the "common cold". They're completely different in every possible way. I get your point but please don't perpetuate the disinformation that the flue and covid are even that similar.

[Fairview4Life]

Fellas, it’s the people crowded together that is the problem. People who aren’t made out of stainless steel. People who can easily transfer droplets to each other. It’s how people In hot climates are still getting sick.

If you can maintain distance and not touch stuff, you’re probably ok everywhere, not just the beach. That’s tough to do and tough to police.

[TMU]

For those who are basically saying that they don't believe in the flu vaccine therefore they won't be getting the Covid-19 vaccine, are you insinuating that the Covid-19 is just another variant of the seasonal flu? Still in denial of how potent this virus is?

It's not at all the flue. It's the "common cold". They're completely different in every possible way. I get your point but please don't perpetuate the disinformation that the flue and covid are even that similar.

From what part of my post did you get that they are similar?

[dhsilv2]

For those who are basically saying that they don't believe in the flu vaccine therefore they won't be getting the Covid-19 vaccine, are you insinuating that the Covid-19 is just another variant of the seasonal flu? Still in denial of how potent this virus is?

It's not at all the flue. It's the "common cold". They're completely different in every possible way. I get your point but please don't perpetuate the disinformation that the flue and covid are even that similar.

From what part of my post did you get that they are similar?

That you even said it was possible it was a variant of the flu...it's a variant of a much less deadly thing normally than the flu. It is also more deadly than the flu...

[TunaFish]

So maybe all those people freaking out about people on the beaches need to chill?

It could be that beaches may be a "killing field" in terms of wiping out the virus. Or at least stopping its spread.

At least sunlit beaches.

These kinds of virus do not seem to like sunlight, warmth, or humidity. It's nice to get research to back that up.

And what virus ever did? Like honestly. Being outside during nice weather, even in a crowd, has never been known to get people sick. It’s being couped up in close quarters sharing the same uncirculated air that has always been the problem w/ spreading illness.

All these big events that are being cancelled out of fear should just be moved outside. High schools should have their proms and graduations on the football field . I’m being overly optimistic I know, but it’s not a horrible idea.

You can get coronavirus or the flu outside. Take a look at both the Shreveport Louisiana and New Orleans outbreaks. Contact tracing done there focuses on Mardi Gras parades (outdoors) being the transmission points. That's where the preacher from Virginia who caught it and later died in Virginia.

It was precisely that thinking about being outdoors that lead to continued waves during the 1918 epidemic as well. The famous Philadelphia parade incident is thought to have killed tens of thousands.

[TMU]

It's not at all the flue. It's the "common cold". They're completely different in every possible way. I get your point but please don't perpetuate the disinformation that the flue and covid are even that similar.

From what part of my post did you get that they are similar?

That you even said it was possible it was a variant of the flu...it's a variant of a much less deadly thing normally than the flu. It is also more deadly than the flu...

I never said the Covid is a variant of the flu. I am asking the Covid antivaxxers if they think the Covid is a variant of the flu, which it isn’t.

[lakerz12]

Many of you guys seem exclusively focused on treating Coronavirus and limiting Coronavirus deaths.

Please consider that you should be equally focused on treating the Economy and limiting death to the Economy.

Economic recession brings countless negative repercussions. For starters see https://www.economicshelp.org/blog/5618/economics/negative-impact-of-economic-recession/

"The main costs of a recession will be:

Unemployment
Fall in income – shorter working week.
Rise in poverty
Fall in asset prices (e.g. fall in house prices/stock market)
Increased inequality and an increase in relative poverty
Higher government borrowing (less tax revenue)
Permanently lost output.
Firms go out of business."

Not to mention dramatic increases in suicide (40,000 people killed themselves in 1937-1938 during the Great Depression) https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2013/09/suicide-and-the-economy/279961/.

If you let the economy die, you are letting Coronavirus win. And we will ALL suffer in the end for it. We must safely re-open businesses as soon as possible.

[dhsilv2]

From what part of my post did you get that they are similar?

That you even said it was possible it was a variant of the flu...it's a variant of a much less deadly thing normally than the flu. It is also more deadly than the flu...

I never said the Covid is a variant of the flu. I am asking the Covid antivaxxers if they think the Covid is a variant of the flu, which it isn’t.

My point was that we need to stop associating this with the flu as it is a whole other virus. That's the extent of my point. Take it or leave it, but that's all i was going for. The reason I say this is because there are still people who think this is actually the flu which it isn't and the more even in a small place like this we stop connecting the two, the better we'll all be.

[dhsilv2]

Many of you guys seem exclusively focused on treating Coronavirus and limiting Coronavirus deaths.

Please consider that you should be equally focused on treating the Economy and limiting death to the Economy.

Economic recession brings countless negative repercussions. For starters see https://www.economicshelp.org/blog/5618/economics/negative-impact-of-economic-recession/

"The main costs of a recession will be:

Unemployment
Fall in income – shorter working week.
Rise in poverty
Fall in asset prices (e.g. fall in house prices/stock market)
Increased inequality and an increase in relative poverty
Higher government borrowing (less tax revenue)
Permanently lost output.
Firms go out of business."

Not to mention dramatic increases in suicide (40,000 people killed themselves in 1937-1938 during the Great Depression) https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2013/09/suicide-and-the-economy/279961/.

If you let the economy die, you are letting Coronavirus win. And we will ALL suffer in the end for it. We must safely re-open businesses as soon as possible.

The economy is just fine dude....it's at this point an issue but almost a none issue. If we act like adults, get things back, we'll be fine. The DOW is reflecting this. I've been on 4 different calls with the top economists for the top banks in the US in the last 4 weeks and all expect the recovery to be rapid and aren't overly concerned with the long term impact.

All these short term stats are scary without understanding how fast this recovery will be. I get it, a lot of people who aren't well versed in economics can't see this, but trust me. We'll be fine. Especially in the US where we have almost unlimited capacity to stimulate the economy if needed while STILL having less total debt to GDP than anyone else.

[NoDopeOnSundays]

Many of you guys seem exclusively focused on treating Coronavirus and limiting Coronavirus deaths.

Please consider that you should be equally focused on treating the Economy and limiting death to the Economy.

Economic recession brings countless negative repercussions. For starters see https://www.economicshelp.org/blog/5618/economics/negative-impact-of-economic-recession/

"The main costs of a recession will be:

Unemployment
Fall in income – shorter working week.
Rise in poverty
Fall in asset prices (e.g. fall in house prices/stock market)
Increased inequality and an increase in relative poverty
Higher government borrowing (less tax revenue)
Permanently lost output.
Firms go out of business."

Not to mention dramatic increases in suicide (40,000 people killed themselves in 1937-1938 during the Great Depression) https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2013/09/suicide-and-the-economy/279961/.

If you let the economy die, you are letting Coronavirus win. And we will ALL suffer in the end for it. We must safely re-open businesses as soon as possible.

Just opening businesses won't bring people, they have opened movie theaters in South Korea and nobody is going, certain sectors are going to be dead for the foreseeable future (Cruises, movies, tourism etc). However the economy will be fine in the long run, you have to contain the virus first before anything, if you reopen too soon you're back at square 1 and will just pro-long the downturn in the economy.

If you reopen too soon, what do you think happens to small businesses when nobody shows up to consume? Especially when the banks aren't waiving payments because everything is now open.

[zimpy27]

New research:

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Good news!
This was the hope considering it's similarities to other viruses that are affected by sunlight and the fact that this virus probably came from nocturnal bats.