Semi-OT: Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread

[molepharmer]

New research:

Read on Twitter

Article also mentions...

"...The lab is now doing additional testing, such as experimenting with low-tech techniques for sterilization of protective equipment, which would include using rice cookers, clothes steamers and electric pressure cookers...."

In the past I used my sous vide set up to sterilize things when my dog had giardia. Basically set it to 170+ F and cook items for ~30min. This is NOT an endorsement to use a hot water bath (e.g. sous vide) for coronavirus, though in theory it should work given the proper time and temp.

[TunaFish]

From the BBC, April 19:

Coronavirus: 'Possible to be infected with Covid-19 more than once'
Scientists working on a coronavirus vaccine in Britain hope to start clinical trials towards the end of next week.

The leader of a team working on a vaccine, Professor Sarah Gilbert, from Oxford University said scientists believed it was possible to become infected with Covid-19 more than once.

She added that a vaccine-induced immunity could last longer than the infected-induced immunity.

[Fairview4Life]

How can having 150 deaths per 1 million in a country that wasn't close to an major outbreak hot spot AND has a very low population density ever be considered fine?

For a comparison, their neighbors have 60 deaths per 1 million (2/5ths, Denmark), 30 deaths per 1 million (2/10ths, Norway) and 16 deaths per 1 million (a bit more than 1/10th, Finland).

If that's doing "VERY much fine" then how does doing awful look like? How many deaths are too much? At what point do you say, ok, this is not working, better change course?

What don't you get? Sweden is having NO significant issues from a health care stand point and they are garnering herd immunity.

This is not a debate. Sweden is winning.

And what don't you get? Sweden has a lot more deaths than every single one of their neighbors. A lot more Swedes are dying than they have to. And it's all because they are using a strategy that isn't working.

If that's winning then how does losing look like?

How is their economy doing? I assume that’s what he means by winning but I haven’t seen any numbers. Just looking at job numbers in the US and comparing lockdown states vs non lockdown, and the non locked own states lost just as many jobs. Not really clear to me that keeping things open actually makes any difference economically.

[Fairview4Life]

https://www.covidexitstrategy.org/

This seems useful and informative.

Read on Twitter

[Triples333]

How can having 150 deaths per 1 million in a country that wasn't close to an major outbreak hot spot AND has a very low population density ever be considered fine?

For a comparison, their neighbors have 60 deaths per 1 million (2/5ths, Denmark), 30 deaths per 1 million (2/10ths, Norway) and 16 deaths per 1 million (a bit more than 1/10th, Finland).

If that's doing "VERY much fine" then how does doing awful look like? How many deaths are too much? At what point do you say, ok, this is not working, better change course?

What don't you get? Sweden is having NO significant issues from a health care stand point and they are garnering herd immunity.

This is not a debate. Sweden is winning.

And what don't you get? Sweden has a lot more deaths than every single one of their neighbors. A lot more Swedes are dying than they have to. And it's all because they are using a strategy that isn't working.

If that's winning then how does losing look like?

I'm sorry man, but ~1500 deaths with the knowledge that they have already begun herd immunity without shutting down their economy and not having any of their hospitals overrun is a massive win for them. They were not overrun by it in the least. And these are people who do not even wear masks. Unless the other Scandinavian countries stay locked in until there is a vaccine in well over a year, their death rate will catch up as well.

I am in some sense glad this pandemic hit because it is a good test run for when something truly devastating happens and showcased all the holes that need to be filled in the medical infrastructure, but it's time to get back to life. This is NOT serious enough to shut down the world for a year. Sweden has proven that.

[Triples333]

What don't you get? Sweden is having NO significant issues from a health care stand point and they are garnering herd immunity.

This is not a debate. Sweden is winning.

And what don't you get? Sweden has a lot more deaths than every single one of their neighbors. A lot more Swedes are dying than they have to. And it's all because they are using a strategy that isn't working.

If that's winning then how does losing look like?

How is their economy doing? I assume that’s what he means by winning but I haven’t seen any numbers. Just looking at job numbers in the US and comparing lockdown states vs non lockdown, and the non locked own states lost just as many jobs. Not really clear to me that keeping things open actually makes any difference economically.

It is not clear to you that the nation working/not living off welfare makes a difference economically? These stimulus and UI checks come at a price. It's not magic money. We are weakening our financial base by the day.

Their economy shifted online centric in the fields that they could, but they did not for even a day shut down restaurants, movie theaters, etc. Schools remained open. And they're completely fine.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-19/sweden-says-controversial-covid-19-strategy-is-proving-effective

[HotRocks34]

Dr. Birx backed up the re-opening of the Florida beaches, stating that she feels that the Florida county public health commissioners are some of the best she's worked with in her career. She basically said she'd have to study the data more, but that she is not inclined to second-guess the county commissioners on the decision. Birx's comments can be seen at around 53:20 in this video from yesterday's virus task force briefing:

Watch on YouTube

Birx mentions that she would need to look at the case rates of the involved counties. As I said in the other thread, the case rates for the two involved Florida counties (Duval and St Johns) are less than 1 person with a positive test for 1000 residents of the county. That puts the counties in the same range as Idaho.

Here's the data involved (and the numbers I'm using for the stats below):

https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/96dd742462124fa0b38ddedb9b25e429
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Duval_County,_Florida
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/St._Johns_County,_Florida
https://covidtracking.com/data/state/idaho#historical
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Idaho


Duval County ---------------------> 835 cases
Duval County population --------> 957,755
Duval County postive test rate --------> Less than 1 in 1000

St Johns County ------------------> 188 cases
St Johns County population -----> 190,039
St Johns County positive rest rate ----------> Less than 1 in 1000

Idaho
1655 cases
1,787,000
Idaho positive rest rate -----------------------> Less than 1 in 1000


Why does the figure 1/1000 matter?

Because Birx said in the 4/7/20 task force briefing that Washington state, which then had a rate of less than 1 case per 1000 people, was doing well managing the virus. This is her standard. In the same briefing, she pointed out that New York City at that time had a rate of about 13 per 1000 (she says the NYC rate is about twice that of NY state's 7 per 1000). Birx's comments from that day can be seen here starting at 1:12:00 or so:

Watch on YouTube

An article on Birx's remarks about the beaches re-opening can be seen here:
https://abc14news.com/2020/04/18/birx-defends-jacksonville-florida-officials-for-reopening-beaches-2/

If Birx is ok with the move in Florida, I'm inclined to accept her opinion on the subject.

[Nuntius]

What don't you get? Sweden is having NO significant issues from a health care stand point and they are garnering herd immunity.

This is not a debate. Sweden is winning.

And what don't you get? Sweden has a lot more deaths than every single one of their neighbors. A lot more Swedes are dying than they have to. And it's all because they are using a strategy that isn't working.

If that's winning then how does losing look like?

I'm sorry man, but ~1200 deaths with the knowledge that they have already begun herd immunity without shutting down their economy and not having any of their hospitals overrun is a massive win for them. They were not overrun by it in the least. And these are people who do not even wear masks. Unless the other Scandinavian countries stay locked in until there is a vaccine in well over a year, their death rate will catch up as well.

I am glad this pandemic hit because it is a good test run for when something truly devastating happens and showcased all the holes that need to be filled in the medical infrastructure, but it's time to get back to life. This is NOT serious enough to shut down the world for a year. Sweden has proven that.

1) You have no idea whether herd immunity has begun in Sweden or whether herd immunity is even helped by not locking down. There is no scientific data to back it up yet. You are talking out of your arse.

2) Similarly, you have no data to claim that Denmark's, Norway's and Finland's death rates will ever catch up with Sweden. The current trajectory doesn't support what you're saying. Someone posted the following video earlier in this thread:

Watch on YouTube

The video talks about a website that has a logarithmic scale that tracks the trajectory of Covid-19 cases. It is a way to see whether exponential growth is happening and at which point did countries start fall below that mark and fight back against the virus. Here is the scale for these 4 countries. Sweden, Denmark, Norway and Finland:

https://aatishb.com/covidtrends/

As you can see when the graph is played, Norway actually had cases before Sweden. But the different strategies that the countries have chosen to deal with Covid-19, have produced different results.

Denmark, Norway and Finland have seen a crystal clear drop in cases. They are no longer experiencing exponential growth. They have succeeded in limiting the spread of the virus and they are likely past their peaks. They can now take steps to re-open their country and their economy as they see fit.

Sweden hasn't done that. They have seen a small drop at times, only to see it spiking back up again. As you can see, their trajectory keeps trending upwards. Their peak has been extended. They aren't past their peak yet.

I am willing to bet anything you want that Denmark, Norway and Finland won't exceed Sweden's deaths per 1 million. There is absolutely zero data to back up your claim so the bet is really easy. Honestly, making the case that Atlanta is going to have a better season than Milwaukee next year, is a far easier claim to make than the one you just did. Injuries can always happen (not wishing for them, obviously) but what you claim has no scientific base behind it at all.

[HotRocks34]

Cuomo is beginning to open some marinas and golf courses in New York state:
https://www.newsday.com/news/health/coronavirus/gov-andrew-m-cuomo-marinas-golf-courses-reopen-1.43965126

Cuomo struck the boating agreement Saturday with the governors of New Jersey and Connecticut. The decision allows marinas, boatyards and marine manufacturers to open for personal rather than commercial use as long as participants adhere to social distancing rules by keeping at least 6 feet apart at all times.

Sanitizing of facilities is also required. Still prohibited are chartered watercraft services or rentals. Restaurants at marinas will continue to be limited to take-out or delivery service.

[Triples333]

And what don't you get? Sweden has a lot more deaths than every single one of their neighbors. A lot more Swedes are dying than they have to. And it's all because they are using a strategy that isn't working.

If that's winning then how does losing look like?

I'm sorry man, but ~1200 deaths with the knowledge that they have already begun herd immunity without shutting down their economy and not having any of their hospitals overrun is a massive win for them. They were not overrun by it in the least. And these are people who do not even wear masks. Unless the other Scandinavian countries stay locked in until there is a vaccine in well over a year, their death rate will catch up as well.

I am glad this pandemic hit because it is a good test run for when something truly devastating happens and showcased all the holes that need to be filled in the medical infrastructure, but it's time to get back to life. This is NOT serious enough to shut down the world for a year. Sweden has proven that.

1) You have no idea whether herd immunity has begun in Sweden or whether herd immunity is even helped by not locking down. There is no scientific data to back it up yet. You are talking out of your arse.

2) Similarly, you have no data to claim that Denmark's, Norway's and Finland's death rates will ever catch up with Sweden. The current trajectory doesn't support what you're saying. Someone posted the following video earlier in this thread:

Watch on YouTube

The video talks about a website that has a logarithmic scale that tracks the trajectory of Covid-19 cases. It is a way to see whether exponential growth is happening and at which point did countries start fall below that mark and fight back against the virus. Here is the scale for these 4 countries. Sweden, Denmark, Norway and Finland:

https://aatishb.com/covidtrends/

As you can see when the graph is played, Norway actually had cases before Sweden. But the different strategies that the countries have chosen to deal with Covid-19, have produced different results.

Denmark, Norway and Finland have seen a crystal clear drop in cases. They are no longer experiencing exponential growth. They have succeeded in limiting the spread of the virus and they are likely past their peaks. They can now take steps to re-open their country and their economy as they see fit.

Sweden hasn't done that. They have seen a small drop at times, only to see it spiking back up again. As you can see, their trajectory keeps trending upwards. Their peak has been extended. They aren't past their peak yet.

I am willing to bet anything you want that Denmark, Norway and Finland won't exceed Sweden's deaths per 1 million. There is absolutely zero data to back up your claim so the bet is really easy. Honestly, making the case that Atlanta is going to have a better season than Milwaukee next year, is a far easier claim to make than the one you just did. Injuries can always happen (not wishing for them, obviously) but what you claim has no scientific base behind it at all.

What we do know - FOR A FACT - is that the Swedish economy and school systems did not shut down for one day and that they are no longer seeing an increase in cases. And that they were not for one day overrun by cases. Would you like to wager me on whether they will have some random outbreak that will send them into hiding due to Covid? I will take the side of "it's never going to happen" at - 1000 odds. You choose the amount.

[HotRocks34]

Follow up on Birx backing up the decision by the Florida counties to re-open the beaches.

As I posted above, Birx said yesterday when asked about the move that she would have to look at the data for the involved counties. Based on interviews today, she did look up the data.

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/week-transcript-19-20-house-speaker-nancy-pelosi/story?id=70229816

That said, every state needs to really do a great job of communicating in local communities because we know every community is different. I'd like every American today to go to the Florida public health site, because I had a question yesterday about a specific county in Florida and I wanted to go in and investigate, and because these outbreaks are very local, the data needs to be analyzed locally. And so we all should look at the Florida public health site. I think they are doing an extraordinary job keeping their communities informed day by day about where the virus is, where the new cases are.

If Birx, after having looked at the two counties' data (data I posted above), wanted to walk back her affirmation of the decision to re-open the beaches you'd think she would have done so. In the most public way possible.

That didn't happen in the two interview transcripts of hers from today I've seen. Which leads to the conclusion that she looked at the data and felt comfortable remaining with the position she took yesterday.


Here's the other interview transcript and the relevant passage:

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/transcript-dr-deborah-birx-discusses-coronavirus-on-face-the-nation-april-19-2020/

DR. BIRX: So, again, this has to be looked at as a community by community. And I am trying to really drive Americans to a website that I think is really quite extraordinary. If you go to the Florida public health website on COVID, they've been able to show their communities cases and tests district by district, county by county, zip code by zip code- zip code. That's the kind of knowledge and power we need to put into the hands of American people so that they can see where the virus is, where the cases are and make decisions.

The website for Florida that Birx is referencing ('m almost certain) is this one, which I cited in the previous post above. It is a great site with a large amount of information per county:
https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/96dd742462124fa0b38ddedb9b25e429

That may be the best state site for the virus I've seen yet.

[Nuntius]

What we do know - FOR A FACT - is that the Swedish economy and school systems did not shut down for one day

Not actually a fact. High schools and universities were either shut down or forced to work from home. Movie theaters are still open but the people aren't going there. Sport events could technically take place but they'd have to be without fans. The Allsvenskan (Sweden's top football league) is postponed until June. You are acting like it's business as usual in Sweden but that's not quite what is happening over there.

Yes, their measures are more lax than they are in other European countries but they aren't business as usual either.

and that they are no longer seeing an increase in cases.

Incorrect. Did you ignore the link I posted? Confirmed cases are still on the rise in Sweden. If the logarithmic graph confused you, here's another one:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/

It looked like Sweden was seeing a gradual decrease in cases on April 12, when they only had 332 confirmed cases. But then the numbers going up again. 465 on April 13, 498 on April 14, 482 on April 15, 613 on April 16, 676 on April 17, 606 on April 18. The biggest daily increase in cases in Sweden was 726 on April 8. As you can see, they are still quite close to that number. That's how an extended peak looks like.

Now, let's take a look at Norway -> https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/norway/

Their biggest daily increase? 399 cases on March 27. You can see that there is clear decline after that point and that the closest they ever came was 270. Sweden came within 50 of their record. Norway's closest was 129.

Let's do Denmark now -> https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/denmark/

Their biggest daily increase was 390 cases on April 7. Then they got 331 cases the very next day. Then they got 233. They haven't gone above 200 daily new cases ever since. They've exhibited a steady decline.

Finally, Finland -> https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/finland/

Their biggest daily increase was 267 cases on April 4. They then got 249 cases two days later. Their numbers started declining after that but it is important to note that they confirmed 192 cases yesterday, on April 18. We'll see whether this is just due to increased testing or whether this is the start of a new peak.

And that they were not for one day overrun by cases. Would you like to wager me on whether they will have some random outbreak that will send them into hiding due to Covid? I will take the side of "it's never going to happen" at - 1000 odds. You choose the amount.

Nice attempt at moving the goalposts but it's not gonna work. We both know what you said in your previous post. Here, allow me to remind you:

Unless the other Scandinavian countries stay locked in until there is a vaccine in well over a year, their death rate will catch up as well.

That's your claim. That's something that you claimed on this very thread. Heck, you made that claim on this very page, page 34. Your claim is that the death rate of the other Scandinavian countries will catch up to Sweden, unless they stay locked in until there is a vaccine. If you want to bet on that, be my guest. It's guaranteed that you'll lose. But don't attempt to change the bet because you realized that your claims are bollocks. That's cowardly.

[HotRocks34]

Site that says it will keep a running log of virus re-openings by state. Seems useful:
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2020/04/19/coronavirus-lockdown-reopening-states-us-texas-florida/5155269002/

In addition to New York re-opening its marinas, Connecticut and New Jersey are doing the same.

[Triples333]

What we do know - FOR A FACT - is that the Swedish economy and school systems did not shut down for one day

Not actually a fact. High schools and universities were either shut down or forced to work from home. Movie theaters are still open but the people aren't going there. Sport events could technically take place but they'd have to be without fans. The Allsvenskan (Sweden's top football league) is postponed until June. You are acting like it's business as usual in Sweden but that's not quite what is happening over there.

Yes, their measures are more lax than they are in other European countries but they aren't business as usual either.

and that they are no longer seeing an increase in cases.

Incorrect. Did you ignore the link I posted? Confirmed cases are still on the rise in Sweden. If the logarithmic graph confused you, here's another one:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/

It looked like Sweden was seeing a gradual decrease in cases on April 12, when they only had 332 confirmed cases. But then the numbers going up again. 465 on April 13, 498 on April 14, 482 on April 15, 613 on April 16, 676 on April 17, 606 on April 18. The biggest daily increase in cases in Sweden was 726 on April 8. As you can see, they are still quite close to that number. That's how an extended peak looks like.

Now, let's take a look at Norway -> https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/norway/

Their biggest daily increase? 399 cases on March 27. You can see that there is clear decline after that point and that the closest they ever came was 270. Sweden came within 50 of their record. Norway's closest was 129.

Let's do Denmark now -> https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/denmark/

Their biggest daily increase was 390 cases on April 7. Then they got 331 cases the very next day. Then they got 233. They haven't gone above 200 daily new cases ever since. They've exhibited a steady decline.

Finally, Finland -> https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/finland/

Their biggest daily increase was 267 cases on April 4. They then got 249 cases two days later. Their numbers started declining after that but it is important to note that they confirmed 192 cases yesterday, on April 18. We'll see whether this is just due to increased testing or whether this is the start of a new peak.

And that they were not for one day overrun by cases. Would you like to wager me on whether they will have some random outbreak that will send them into hiding due to Covid? I will take the side of "it's never going to happen" at - 1000 odds. You choose the amount.

Nice attempt at moving the goalposts but it's not gonna work. We both know what you said in your previous post. Here, allow me to remind you:

Unless the other Scandinavian countries stay locked in until there is a vaccine in well over a year, their death rate will catch up as well.

That's your claim. That's something that you claimed on this very thread. Heck, you made that claim on this very page, page 34. Your claim is that the death rate of the other Scandinavian countries will catch up to Sweden, unless they stay locked in until there is a vaccine. If you want to bet on that, be my guest. It's guaranteed that you'll lose. But don't attempt to change the bet because you realized that your claims are bollocks. That's cowardly.

You are trying far too hard and failing to interpret your links. They peaked April 6-9th in Sweden. The fact of the matter is that the citizens are naturally dictating their social distancing and the ones that choose to go to the movies, bars, restaurants, night-clubs, etc are doing just that.

Schools 16 and under remained open and continue to remain open. University programs and jobs that can be done online have been done online. That seems to me to be a very forthright and logical approach to this situation. This is not the Spanish Flu. It is a virus that we have identified to be extremely dangerous to compromised patients that are elderly or immune deficient. THOSE are who we need to be taking care of and sending our stimulus checks to while they quarantine until a vaccine is in place or they personally feel comfortable with the risk. The rest of us need to get back to work and support them.

[Nuntius]

What we do know - FOR A FACT - is that the Swedish economy and school systems did not shut down for one day

Not actually a fact. High schools and universities were either shut down or forced to work from home. Movie theaters are still open but the people aren't going there. Sport events could technically take place but they'd have to be without fans. The Allsvenskan (Sweden's top football league) is postponed until June. You are acting like it's business as usual in Sweden but that's not quite what is happening over there.

Yes, their measures are more lax than they are in other European countries but they aren't business as usual either.

and that they are no longer seeing an increase in cases.

Incorrect. Did you ignore the link I posted? Confirmed cases are still on the rise in Sweden. If the logarithmic graph confused you, here's another one:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/

It looked like Sweden was seeing a gradual decrease in cases on April 12, when they only had 332 confirmed cases. But then the numbers going up again. 465 on April 13, 498 on April 14, 482 on April 15, 613 on April 16, 676 on April 17, 606 on April 18. The biggest daily increase in cases in Sweden was 726 on April 8. As you can see, they are still quite close to that number. That's how an extended peak looks like.

Now, let's take a look at Norway -> https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/norway/

Their biggest daily increase? 399 cases on March 27. You can see that there is clear decline after that point and that the closest they ever came was 270. Sweden came within 50 of their record. Norway's closest was 129.

Let's do Denmark now -> https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/denmark/

Their biggest daily increase was 390 cases on April 7. Then they got 331 cases the very next day. Then they got 233. They haven't gone above 200 daily new cases ever since. They've exhibited a steady decline.

Finally, Finland -> https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/finland/

Their biggest daily increase was 267 cases on April 4. They then got 249 cases two days later. Their numbers started declining after that but it is important to note that they confirmed 192 cases yesterday, on April 18. We'll see whether this is just due to increased testing or whether this is the start of a new peak.

And that they were not for one day overrun by cases. Would you like to wager me on whether they will have some random outbreak that will send them into hiding due to Covid? I will take the side of "it's never going to happen" at - 1000 odds. You choose the amount.

Nice attempt at moving the goalposts but it's not gonna work. We both know what you said in your previous post. Here, allow me to remind you:

Unless the other Scandinavian countries stay locked in until there is a vaccine in well over a year, their death rate will catch up as well.

That's your claim. That's something that you claimed on this very thread. Heck, you made that claim on this very page, page 34. Your claim is that the death rate of the other Scandinavian countries will catch up to Sweden, unless they stay locked in until there is a vaccine. If you want to bet on that, be my guest. It's guaranteed that you'll lose. But don't attempt to change the bet because you realized that your claims are bollocks. That's cowardly.

You are trying far too hard. The fact of the matter is that the citizens are naturally dictating their social distancing and the ones that choose to go to the movies, bars, restaurants, night-clubs, etc are doing just that.

Schools 16 and under remained open and continue to remain open. University programs and jobs that can be done online have been done online. That seems to me to be a very prudent and logical approach to this situation. This is not the Spanish Flu. It is a virus that we have identified to be extremely dangerous to compromised patients that are elderly or immune deficient. THOSE are who we need to be taking care of and sending our stimulus checks to while they quarantine until a vaccine is in place or they personally feel comfortable with the risk. The rest of us need to get back to work and support them.

I may be trying too hard but you are the one that is actively ignoring every data point that people present to you. You instead prefer to talk in platitudes. At the end of the day, you have not produced even a single shred of evidence about your claims. To put it simply, you are talking out of your ass. The only prudent thing you've done is to back down from a bet that you couldn't possibly win.

Oh and a small note about the Spanish flu. You are aware that the second wave of the Spanish flu was much more deadly than the first wave, aren't you? I'm sure that there were people back then who were claiming "this is not the bubonic plague, we shouldn't worry too much". These people were wrong and you are no different.

We don't need Covid-19 to be worse than it already is. We don't need to experience an even worse second wave. We need to take the necessary precautions to ensure that if a second wave hits, we are better prepared to handle and we can mitigate it quickly.

[Triples333]

Not actually a fact. High schools and universities were either shut down or forced to work from home. Movie theaters are still open but the people aren't going there. Sport events could technically take place but they'd have to be without fans. The Allsvenskan (Sweden's top football league) is postponed until June. You are acting like it's business as usual in Sweden but that's not quite what is happening over there.

Yes, their measures are more lax than they are in other European countries but they aren't business as usual either.



Incorrect. Did you ignore the link I posted? Confirmed cases are still on the rise in Sweden. If the logarithmic graph confused you, here's another one:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/

It looked like Sweden was seeing a gradual decrease in cases on April 12, when they only had 332 confirmed cases. But then the numbers going up again. 465 on April 13, 498 on April 14, 482 on April 15, 613 on April 16, 676 on April 17, 606 on April 18. The biggest daily increase in cases in Sweden was 726 on April 8. As you can see, they are still quite close to that number. That's how an extended peak looks like.

Now, let's take a look at Norway -> https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/norway/

Their biggest daily increase? 399 cases on March 27. You can see that there is clear decline after that point and that the closest they ever came was 270. Sweden came within 50 of their record. Norway's closest was 129.

Let's do Denmark now -> https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/denmark/

Their biggest daily increase was 390 cases on April 7. Then they got 331 cases the very next day. Then they got 233. They haven't gone above 200 daily new cases ever since. They've exhibited a steady decline.

Finally, Finland -> https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/finland/

Their biggest daily increase was 267 cases on April 4. They then got 249 cases two days later. Their numbers started declining after that but it is important to note that they confirmed 192 cases yesterday, on April 18. We'll see whether this is just due to increased testing or whether this is the start of a new peak.



Nice attempt at moving the goalposts but it's not gonna work. We both know what you said in your previous post. Here, allow me to remind you:



That's your claim. That's something that you claimed on this very thread. Heck, you made that claim on this very page, page 34. Your claim is that the death rate of the other Scandinavian countries will catch up to Sweden, unless they stay locked in until there is a vaccine. If you want to bet on that, be my guest. It's guaranteed that you'll lose. But don't attempt to change the bet because you realized that your claims are bollocks. That's cowardly.

You are trying far too hard. The fact of the matter is that the citizens are naturally dictating their social distancing and the ones that choose to go to the movies, bars, restaurants, night-clubs, etc are doing just that.

Schools 16 and under remained open and continue to remain open. University programs and jobs that can be done online have been done online. That seems to me to be a very prudent and logical approach to this situation. This is not the Spanish Flu. It is a virus that we have identified to be extremely dangerous to compromised patients that are elderly or immune deficient. THOSE are who we need to be taking care of and sending our stimulus checks to while they quarantine until a vaccine is in place or they personally feel comfortable with the risk. The rest of us need to get back to work and support them.

I may be trying too hard but you are the one that is actively ignoring every data point that people present to you. You instead prefer to talk in platitudes. At the end of the day, you have not produced even a single shred of evidence about your claims. To put it simply, you are talking out of your ass. The only prudent thing you've done is to back down from a bet that you couldn't possibly win.

Oh and a small note about the Spanish flu. You are aware that the second wave of the Spanish flu was much more deadly than the first wave, aren't you? I'm sure that there were people back then who were claiming "this is not the bubonic plague, we shouldn't worry too much". These people were wrong and you are no different.

We don't need Covid-19 to be worse than it already is. We don't need to experience an even worse second wave. We need to take the necessary precautions to ensure that if a second wave hits, we are better prepared to handle and we can mitigate it quickly.

Sweden's cases are not on the rise. You are either obtuse or ignorant, I can't decide.

The second wave of the Spanish flu was indeed worse. It is why I mentioned that this virus was in some instances a blessing in disguise for us. It has awoken us to the fact that we need to be FAR better prepared for a true pandemic. I do think that those provisions are being made a priority now. And need to be.

What is your end-game here? With a test case in Sweden slapping us in the face with the fact that they never closed their kids' schools or bars and restaurants, how long do you suppose we should remain shut down? Do you think we should wait for the 2nd wave in 9 months, that could potentially be more dangerous than this? What's your plan man?

[HotRocks34]

Great news out of New York. See the graphs from Cuomo's press conference today:

Watch on YouTube

Now, the weekend usually sees a dip in data (falsely "lower"), so we need to see if this data holds up over the next few days. Still, very promising information.

- Total hospitalizations continues to trend downward, as it has for maybe the last 5 days
- Net ICU hospitalizations is down -117 (117 more people left the ICU than came in). Downward trend seems to be accerlerting
- New Hospitalizations for the virus was +1359. That's the lowest number since March 24.
- New fatalities was 507. Lowest figure since April 2, I believe


If these trends hold up (see the graphs for yourselves), not only would New York be beyond the peak, they would appear to be coming down the curve pretty hard and fast.

Praying these trends hold up during the week.

Note: The daily fatalities that Cuomo reports do not generally include the latest "probable" fatalities from NYC, I don't think. So some sties may show a different tally for the fatalities from New York than what Cuomo said.

[Nuntius]

Sweden's cases are not on the rise. You are either obtuse or ignorant, I can't decide.

Sweden is currently experiencing an extended peak. That's what the numbers I posted above indicate. You are ignoring the numbers.

The second wave of the Spanish flu was indeed worse. It is why I mentioned that this virus was in some instances a blessing in disguise for us. It has awoken us to the fact that we need to be FAR better prepared for a true pandemic. I do think that those provisions are being made a priority now.

They aren't, though. We have people (and even governments) spreading misinformation and propaganda about how this was all "hyped up" and "hysteria" instead of an actual pandemic. Heck, we have people that are still claiming that this is no worse than the common flu (bulliedog8 made that point repeatedly). Some countries have made efforts to better prepare themselves for the next pandemic but not every country has done that. Some are still woefully unprepared.

What is your end-game here? With a test case in Sweden slapping us in the face with the fact that they never closed their kids' schools or bars and restaurants, how long do you suppose we should remain shut down? Do you think we should wait for the 2nd wave in 9 months, that could potentially be more dangerous than this? What's your plan man?

My "end-game" is for people and countries to take this matter seriously. It's to be better prepared for a future pandemic. Simply put, I don't want to see more people dying from something that we could have prevented if we were better prepared.

No, I don't think that the quarantine should be kept for the next 9 months. My own country is preparing to open back up on early May (May 4 is the target date). Do you know why my country is making those preparations? Because the epidemiological data supports such a move. That's what my plan is. Listen to the experts. Listen to epidemiologists. They know better than politicians do.

[bisme37]

Read on Twitter

[Triples333]

Sweden's cases are not on the rise. You are either obtuse or ignorant, I can't decide.

Sweden is currently experiencing an extended peak. That's what the numbers I posted above indicate. You are ignoring the numbers.

The second wave of the Spanish flu was indeed worse. It is why I mentioned that this virus was in some instances a blessing in disguise for us. It has awoken us to the fact that we need to be FAR better prepared for a true pandemic. I do think that those provisions are being made a priority now.

They aren't, though. We have people (and even governments) spreading misinformation and propaganda about how this was all "hyped up" and "hysteria" instead of an actual pandemic. Heck, we have people that are still claiming that this is no worse than the common flu (bulliedog8 made that point repeatedly). Some countries have made efforts to better prepare themselves for the next pandemic but not every country has done that. Some are still woefully unprepared.

What is your end-game here? With a test case in Sweden slapping us in the face with the fact that they never closed their kids' schools or bars and restaurants, how long do you suppose we should remain shut down? Do you think we should wait for the 2nd wave in 9 months, that could potentially be more dangerous than this? What's your plan man?

My "end-game" is for people and countries to take this matter seriously. It's to be better prepared for a future pandemic. Simply put, I don't want to see more people dying from something that we could have prevented if we were better prepared.

No, I don't think that the quarantine should be kept for the next 9 months. My own country is preparing to open back up on early May (May 4 is the target date). Do you know why my country is making those preparations? Because the epidemiological data supports such a move. That's what my plan is. Listen to the experts. Listen to epidemiologists. They know better than politicians do.

Sweden peaked April 6-9th, and they will not see another peak. Do you know who may see another peak? Every country that quarantined and are attempting to re-open. That's reality.

Your "end-game" is for nations to take this seriously? LOL well guess what man, you got it.

Very telling to me that you are unwilling to even acknowledge that Sweden is a super interesting test case. And I am a Californian liberal/libertarian here.