Official Covid-19 Discussion Thread

[beanbag]

No doubt a second wave is coming. What disturbs me is that the majority of people apparently think we should not open our economy as long as there will be a second wave when we do. That is an irrational standard that will require us to keep the economy closed for a catastrophically long time. Economic collapse much worse than the great depression will have serious real consequences for people and it is what will happen if we actually maintain lockdown until a vaccine, which is what would be required for there to be no second wave. Already the damage is severe, but if lifted soon perhaps there could be a relatively quick recovery. The longer this goes on the more businesses will go permanently bust and/or governments borrowing way beyond their means, requiring either massive inflation or massive austerity. Those outcomes will no doubt destroy lives but the majority of people either seem not to realize it or not to care.

Why do you think "opening things up" will save the economy and these businesses? They can open whatever the **** they want to open, I'm not going outside.

Right, I don't think the economy will return to its pre-covid heights any time soon even if we stop forcing everything to be shut down because some people will still choose not to go outside. But many people will choose to go outside and at least those people can spend money and do work, so we can save relatively more of the economy that way, and of course lessening the collapse is very worthwhile, even if it's not possible to restore it to its pre-covid heights. We aren't going back there. Any decisions we can make now will still have results that are worse than how things were, but we still need to make decisions that cause the least damage possible going forward.

But there is nothing to suggest that option causes the least damage. Decidedly more people will get sick and die quicker and there is nothing to suggest the increased panic that is caused as the death toll rises doesn't eventually cripple the economy if people just stay inside.

[Raps in 4]

I think we go until June 1st. It's unreasonable for any more lockdown.

It's completely reasonable to go on with a lockdown until we've flattened the curve. Only then is it reasonable to slowly open things back up.

[Concernedcad]

I think we go until June 1st. It's unreasonable for any more lockdown.

It's completely reasonable to go on with a lockdown until we've flattened the curve. Only then is it reasonable to slowly open things back up.

It's irrational. People are not going to stay locked in doors when it's 30 degrees out.

[beanbag]

I think we go until June 1st. It's unreasonable for any more lockdown.

It's completely reasonable to go on with a lockdown until we've flattened the curve. Only then is it reasonable to slowly open things back up.

It's irrational. People are not going to stay locked in doors when it's 30 degrees out.

First of all, people aren't being forced to stay indoors now.

Second, the only thing that's irrational is you suggesting an arbitrary date at which point it is "unreasonable" to continue the lockdown. Like, why June 1st and not June 3rd or May 29th?

Just because you decided to pull a whole number out of your ass doesn't mean that number means anything champ.

[Concernedcad]

It's completely reasonable to go on with a lockdown until we've flattened the curve. Only then is it reasonable to slowly open things back up.

It's irrational. People are not going to stay locked in doors when it's 30 degrees out.

First of all, people aren't being forced to stay indoors now.

Second, the only thing that's irrational is you suggesting an arbitrary date at which point it is "unreasonable" to continue the lockdown. Like, why June 1st and not June 3rd or May 29th?

Just because you decided to pull a whole number out of your ass doesn't mean that number means anything champ.

Agreed. May first sounds better to me.

[beanbag]

It's irrational. People are not going to stay locked in doors when it's 30 degrees out.

First of all, people aren't being forced to stay indoors now.

Second, the only thing that's irrational is you suggesting an arbitrary date at which point it is "unreasonable" to continue the lockdown. Like, why June 1st and not June 3rd or May 29th?

Just because you decided to pull a whole number out of your ass doesn't mean that number means anything champ.

Agreed. May first sounds better to me.

Cool, it's not happening so keep being mad.

[ac1011990]

First of all, people aren't being forced to stay indoors now.

Second, the only thing that's irrational is you suggesting an arbitrary date at which point it is "unreasonable" to continue the lockdown. Like, why June 1st and not June 3rd or May 29th?

Just because you decided to pull a whole number out of your ass doesn't mean that number means anything champ.

Agreed. May first sounds better to me.

Cool, it's not happening so keep being mad.

I think things will start opening up early June. By the looks of things, provinces are starting to, or will hit their peaks latest by early May, that will give about a month of decreasing numbers. I don’t think it’s possible to wait till there are zero cases reported in all of Canada, that would take months on end. It’s going to be super interesting how countries are going to handle things. All I know is were in for an interesting year.

[Fairview4Life]

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.14.20062463v1

Stanford study suggesting 50-85 times underreporting of positive cases. Would put mortality rate closer to historical influenza rates. Obviously the surge in deaths over short duration has skewed people's perceptions but to emphasize that over historical events is irresponsible.

Read on Twitter

A Vox journalist vs Stanford PhD's? LOL. His tweet displays his lack of statistical background. Ask him if a county had 0 positive cases would the extrapolation be 0?

Shrugging emoji . Gif

Read on Twitter

[VicG]

Looks like we are at or past the peak of the first wave (as per Ontario officials today). Keep up the great work and we can get some stuff opening back in the summer!

[SocialistHipHop]

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/covid-19-coronavirus-monday-new-models-ontario-1.5538075

[RaptorPride]

Does anyone know where I can get disinfectant wipes and hand sanitizer?

[Raps in 4]

Does anyone know where I can get disinfectant wipes and hand sanitizer?

Identify the alpha in your neighbourhood and rob them.

[God Squad]

Does anyone know where I can get disinfectant wipes and hand sanitizer?

Identify the alpha in your neighbourhood and rob them.

Deebo waiting for you
"Das my bike punk"

[God Squad]

Watch on YouTube

[hankscorpioLA]

Agreed. May first sounds better to me.

Cool, it's not happening so keep being mad.

I think things will start opening up early June. By the looks of things, provinces are starting to, or will hit their peaks latest by early May, that will give about a month of decreasing numbers. I don’t think it’s possible to wait till there are zero cases reported in all of Canada, that would take months on end. It’s going to be super interesting how countries are going to handle things. All I know is were in for an interesting year.

An extended period of declining cases is only one of the key criteria. The others are point-of-care testing, contact tracing, and isolation of those infected and their contacts. All of those need to be in place before any meaningful reopening can be considered.

IMHO the absolute worst case scenario would be to re-open and have cases spike again. That would not only necessitate another shutdown, but would significantly erode the public's trust in government and their confidence in their ability to stay safe. And that, my friends, would cause the kind of economic damage that may be impossible to recover from.

[Lord_Zedd]

Cool, it's not happening so keep being mad.

I think things will start opening up early June. By the looks of things, provinces are starting to, or will hit their peaks latest by early May, that will give about a month of decreasing numbers. I don’t think it’s possible to wait till there are zero cases reported in all of Canada, that would take months on end. It’s going to be super interesting how countries are going to handle things. All I know is were in for an interesting year.

An extended period of declining cases is only one of the key criteria. The others are point-of-care testing, contact tracing, and isolation of those infected and their contacts. All of those need to be in place before any meaningful reopening can be considered.

IMHO the absolute worst case scenario would be to re-open and have cases spike again. That would not only necessitate another shutdown, but would significantly erode the public's trust in government and their confidence in their ability to stay safe. And that, my friends, would cause the kind of economic damage that may be impossible to recover from.

This is sort of what's happening in Singapore right now. For the most part, they thought they had the virus contained and started to ease up on the lockdown.

They tested their own citizens just fine but they didn't fully account for their migrant workers - who lived in crowded conditions. Now Singapore is dealing with a huge spike in cases.

To put it into perspective, two weeks ago they were sitting roughly at ~1200-1300 total cases. Today they're near the 10,000 mark with the last two days of 1000+ cases.

[Concernedcad]

First of all, people aren't being forced to stay indoors now.

Second, the only thing that's irrational is you suggesting an arbitrary date at which point it is "unreasonable" to continue the lockdown. Like, why June 1st and not June 3rd or May 29th?

Just because you decided to pull a whole number out of your ass doesn't mean that number means anything champ.

Agreed. May first sounds better to me.

Cool, it's not happening so keep being mad.

Mad? Stop projecting.

[Pointgod]

I think things will start opening up early June. By the looks of things, provinces are starting to, or will hit their peaks latest by early May, that will give about a month of decreasing numbers. I don’t think it’s possible to wait till there are zero cases reported in all of Canada, that would take months on end. It’s going to be super interesting how countries are going to handle things. All I know is were in for an interesting year.

An extended period of declining cases is only one of the key criteria. The others are point-of-care testing, contact tracing, and isolation of those infected and their contacts. All of those need to be in place before any meaningful reopening can be considered.

IMHO the absolute worst case scenario would be to re-open and have cases spike again. That would not only necessitate another shutdown, but would significantly erode the public's trust in government and their confidence in their ability to stay safe. And that, my friends, would cause the kind of economic damage that may be impossible to recover from.

This is sort of what's happening in Singapore right now. For the most part, they thought they had the virus contained and started to ease up on the lockdown.

They tested their own citizens just fine but they didn't fully account for their migrant workers - who lived in crowded conditions. Now Singapore is dealing with a huge spike in cases.

To put it into perspective, two weeks ago they were sitting roughly at ~1200-1300 total cases. Today they're near the 10,000 mark with the last two days of 1000+ cases.

The bolded is what people that just repeat talking points about opening the economy need to understand. Relax too much and cases will just spike again. I don’t know what’s wrong with gradually opening things up once certain criteria is in place.

[yogimvp]

Does anyone know where I can get disinfectant wipes and hand sanitizer?

for wipes just use any liquid cleaner you can find and a sponge or paper towel.

[Kevin Willis]

I am glad they are reducing utility bills for a period of time. Staying at home puts on extra strain where ever you're living. More people moving around, more people using water, electricity, heat. If the price stayed the same would be like forcing people to stay at home and pay higher bills because of increased use. That and money back from auto would also be nice.