Semi-OT: Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread

[bondom34]

https://nypost.com/2020/04/19/coronavirus-can-survive-exposure-to-high-temperatures-study-shows/

Viruses and viral infections don't just "go away" in the summer.

[mtron929]

This is an interesting article - sounds like they took a sample of people from a town outside of Boston and looked for antibodies. Found 32% had been exposed to virus. I’d be so interested to see what those numbers would be for NYC - I wouldn’t be surprised if close to the entire city was exposed.

https://news.yahoo.com/test-200-people-just-outside-144732703.html

One thing to note is that 200 people were all volunteers. This would probably imply that many of these people probably think that they have gotten infected yet were not tested previously. And surely enough, the article states that half of the people had symptoms akin to the coronavirus in the past.

The figure would be scary (or not depending on your perspective) if they truly selected people at random and found 32% to be exposed.

[michaelm]

https://nypost.com/2020/04/19/coronavirus-can-survive-exposure-to-high-temperatures-study-shows/

Viruses and viral infections don't just "go away" in the summer.

From what I have gleaned there is reason to suspect this virus if of bat origin as seems very likely won't be as affected by temperature as other viruses since bats as the only mammals capable of flight apparently have a high metabolic rate and raise their temperature during flight which bat viruses need to be able to tolerate.

I saw something in a finance context about a company which has a product which uses ultraviolet for sterilisation in general and they say definitely kills the corona virus which I saw no reason to disbelieve, after which I surmised sunlight might have some effect in regard to which which an article cited in this thread contends there is confirmatory scientific evidence. It is however a large step from there to saying Floridians don't need to worry about the virus or that summer will end the epidemic in Florida or elsewhere in the USA.

[NBAFan93]

This is an interesting article - sounds like they took a sample of people from a town outside of Boston and looked for antibodies. Found 32% had been exposed to virus. I’d be so interested to see what those numbers would be for NYC - I wouldn’t be surprised if close to the entire city was exposed.

https://news.yahoo.com/test-200-people-just-outside-144732703.html

One thing to note is that 200 people were all volunteers. This would probably imply that many of these people probably think that they have gotten infected yet were not tested previously. And surely enough, the article states that half of the people had symptoms akin to the coronavirus in the past.

The figure would be scary (or not depending on your perspective) if they truly selected people at random and found 32% to be exposed.

It would be interesting to follow-up on those 32% to see if they stay symptom and virus free long term. Like to figure out if they actually have an immunity.

[bondom34]

https://nypost.com/2020/04/19/coronavirus-can-survive-exposure-to-high-temperatures-study-shows/

Viruses and viral infections don't just "go away" in the summer.

There is reason to suspect this virus if of bat origin as seems very likely won't be as affected by temperature as other viruses since bats as the only mammals capable of flight apparently have a high metabolic rate and raise their temperature during flight.

I saw something in a finance context about a company which has a product which uses ultraviolet for sterilisation in general which they say definitely kills the corona virus which I saw no reason to disbelieve, after which I surmised sunlight might have some effect which an article cited in this thread apparently confirms. It is however a big step from there to saying Floridians don't need to worry about the virus or that summer will end the epidemic in Florida or elsewhere in the USA.

It's not only this. Viruses don't magically all die in the summer, and Asia's already seeing countries w/ a 2nd resurgense.

Direct UV exposure does kill viruses but that's a strong UV light held very close (well at least relative).

It's why X rays can cause cancer but sunlight doesn't do it as fast, UV from the sun is massively weaker than those sources. UV causes skin cancer but only with prolonged sun exposure, sun light is really weak UV compared to lab sterilization in general.

Edit: This is kind of a simplified way to put it, but to get the idea across.

[HotRocks34]

New York set to commence a 3,000-subject virus antibody test tomorrow:
https://nypost.com/2020/04/19/new-york-to-begin-coronavirus-antibody-testing-survey-on-monday/

A sample of 3,000 state residents will start receiving tests from the state Department of Health to detect for the presence of antibodies produced by people infected with COVID-19, Cuomo said.

...

“This will be the first true snapshot of exactly how many people were infected by COVID-19,” the governor said in a statement.

The testing, Cuomo said, “will help us to reopen and rebuild without jeopardizing what we’ve already accomplished.”

[California Gold]

It really is crazy how this thing impacts so many organs. Underlying conditions or not, I think when all of these organs are impacted, this is why there's always a chance for long term damage. This is all uncertain right now but that's also why this thing is being taken so seriously from the health/science side.

[mtron929]

It really is crazy how this thing impacts so many organs. Underlying conditions or not, I think when all of these organs are impacted, this is why there's always a chance for long term damage. This is all uncertain right now but that's also why this thing is being taken so seriously from the health/science side.

Yeah, it seems like people are too caught up in the binary outcome of whether this virus kills you or not. But people should be concerned with some of the long-term harmful effects that it can do to your body, even if you don't die.

[HotRocks34]

There's been debate about the Florida beaches re-opening, but I have to say this seems a bit puzzling:
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8234903/Central-Park-filled-people-amid-COVID-19-pandemic.html

Having a fairly-crowded space like Central Park open at the center of the USA epidemic might not be the best idea at this time. Still, I trust Governor Cuomo, and I hope this works out ok.

[michaelm]

https://nypost.com/2020/04/19/coronavirus-can-survive-exposure-to-high-temperatures-study-shows/

Viruses and viral infections don't just "go away" in the summer.

There is reason to suspect this virus if of bat origin as seems very likely won't be as affected by temperature as other viruses since bats as the only mammals capable of flight apparently have a high metabolic rate and raise their temperature during flight.

I saw something in a finance context about a company which has a product which uses ultraviolet for sterilisation in general which they say definitely kills the corona virus which I saw no reason to disbelieve, after which I surmised sunlight might have some effect which an article cited in this thread apparently confirms. It is however a big step from there to saying Floridians don't need to worry about the virus or that summer will end the epidemic in Florida or elsewhere in the USA.

It's not only this. Viruses don't magically all die in the summer, and Asia's already seeing countries w/ a 2nd resurgense.

Direct UV exposure does kill viruses but that's a strong UV light held very close (well at least relative).

It's why X rays can cause cancer but sunlight doesn't do it as fast, UV from the sun is massively weaker than those sources. UV causes skin cancer but only with prolonged sun exposure, sun light is really weak UV compared to lab sterilization in general.

Edit: This is kind of a simplified way to put it, but to get the idea across.

As it happens I am fairly well informed in regard to the medical effects of ionising radiation.

I was not suggesting UV from sunlight was a panacea for the virus. As you are aware the intensity of UV in sunlight varies though, being of Anglo-Celtic extraction I can get sunburnt in 20 minutes unprotected in full sun such as at the beach or playing golf in summer in Sydney, and we do have among the highest rates of melanoma in the world in subtropical and tropical parts of Australia.

[Slava]

There's been debate about the Florida beaches re-opening, but I have to say this seems a bit puzzling:
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8234903/Central-Park-filled-people-amid-COVID-19-pandemic.html

Having a fairly-crowded space like Central Park open at the center of the USA epidemic might not be the best idea at this time. Still, I trust Governor Cuomo, and I hope this works out ok.

This happens everywhere. There were people in Berlin lounging around in the parks all weekend and its also been the case in Copenhagen. We've went through a winter, now the weather is getting warmer and people want to get some sun. Unless the government enforces lockdown with police patrol, there will never be 100% compliance.

The difference between Florida opening its beaches and this is that with stay at home regulation you might have around 250 or so people at a park at one time whereas without regulations, there would probably be 10 times as many.

Also the age demographic is very different between NY and FL. People retire in NY to move to FL so it is inherently a high risk state.

[lakerz12]

It really is crazy how this thing impacts so many organs. Underlying conditions or not, I think when all of these organs are impacted, this is why there's always a chance for long term damage. This is all uncertain right now but that's also why this thing is being taken so seriously from the health/science side.

Yeah, it seems like people are too caught up in the binary outcome of whether this virus kills you or not. But people should be concerned with some of the long-term harmful effects that it can do to your body, even if you don't die.

Oh my gosh it's almost like most illnesses affect multiple organs.

[HollowEarth]

Reading reports about covid causing serious damage in lungs even in cases of people with mild symptoms who didnt have to hospitalise.

Really makes you worried about NBA players and other professional athletes who had it.

It seemed like Silver implied recently that more players tested positive than just the ones the media knows about too.

I’m sure they‘ll do physicals and tests on them all to make sure they are safe to play. I hope they are all fine.

Just replying to add sources:

Silver also said more NBA players have tested positive for coronavirus than has been reported in the media, but the league and teams have stopped releasing that information out of privacy concerns.

[ . . . ]

Silver said the owners on the call have a sense of “civic duty” to resume the season and do their part in reigniting the economy. He mentioned league revenue has fallen to “near zero” during the postponement of play. But player safety and health would not be compromised, Silver said.

https://www.startribune.com/commissioner-adam-silver-says-it-s-still-unclear-whether-nba-season-will-resume/569743822/

[HollowEarth]

https://nypost.com/2020/04/19/coronavirus-can-survive-exposure-to-high-temperatures-study-shows/

Viruses and viral infections don't just "go away" in the summer.

There is reason to suspect this virus if of bat origin as seems very likely won't be as affected by temperature as other viruses since bats as the only mammals capable of flight apparently have a high metabolic rate and raise their temperature during flight.

I saw something in a finance context about a company which has a product which uses ultraviolet for sterilisation in general which they say definitely kills the corona virus which I saw no reason to disbelieve, after which I surmised sunlight might have some effect which an article cited in this thread apparently confirms. It is however a big step from there to saying Floridians don't need to worry about the virus or that summer will end the epidemic in Florida or elsewhere in the USA.

It's not only this. Viruses don't magically all die in the summer, and Asia's already seeing countries w/ a 2nd resurgense.

Direct UV exposure does kill viruses but that's a strong UV light held very close (well at least relative).

It's why X rays can cause cancer but sunlight doesn't do it as fast, UV from the sun is massively weaker than those sources. UV causes skin cancer but only with prolonged sun exposure, sun light is really weak UV compared to lab sterilization in general.

Edit: This is kind of a simplified way to put it, but to get the idea across.

Just replying to add sources:

UV light shows a lot of promise: SSLEEC member company Seoul Semiconductor in early April reported a "99.9% sterilization of coronavirus (COVID-19) in 30 seconds" with their UV LED products. Their technology currently is being adopted for automotive use, in UV LED lamps that sterilize the interior of unoccupied vehicles.

It's worth noting that not all UV wavelengths are alike. UV-A and UV-B -- the types we get a lot of here on Earth courtesy of the Sun -- have important uses, but the rare UV-C is the ultraviolet light of choice for purifying air and water and for inactivating microbes. These can be generated only via human-made processes.

"UV-C light in the 260 -- 285 nm range most relevant for current disinfection technologies is also harmful to human skin, so for now it is mostly used in applications where no one is present at the time of disinfection," Zollner said. In fact, the World Health Organization warns against using ultraviolet disinfection lamps to sanitize hands or other areas of the skin -- even brief exposure to UV-C light can cause burns and eye damage.

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/04/200414173251.htm

The wavelength of UV radiation (UVR) lies in the range of 100–400 nm, and is further subdivided into UVA (315–400 nm), UVB (280–315 nm), and UVC (100–280 nm). The UV component of terrestrial radiation from the midday sun comprises about 95% UVA and 5% UVB; UVC and most of UVB are removed from extraterrestrial radiation by stratospheric ozone.

Approximately 5% of solar terrestrial radiation is UVR, and solar radiation is the major source of human exposure to UVR.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK304366/

[HollowEarth]

Sweden kept its movie theatres open! But not really.

Peter Fornstam, the CEO of Svenska Bio, said the group has kept theaters open in Sweden but with super low attendance and a cap of 50 admissions per auditorium. “We are open out of respect to society, our staff and films that were in release when the (outbreak of) Covid-19 started.” In Denmark and Finland, meanwhile, all theaters were forced to close due to a government order.

Fornstam said that although his cinemas are open in Sweden there were only “very few films from small distributors (which) serves only Stockholm.” The exhibitor said the lack of movies will lead them to close theaters across Sweden by mid-April but he intends on keeping those in Stockholm open.

Like I asked earlier, what are they winning economically? Are there even any numbers we can look at?

Too bad drive in movies are not still a thing...those could probably have remained open.

Still a handful left:
https://www.driveinmovie.com/united-states

I was thinking the same thing, but there's none anywhere near me. For the theaters where you can buy tickets online, this seems pretty dope.

[perempe20]

Which game shall I watch on YouTube? You can rank the top 3/5 most enjoyable.

I saw only the last game of the 2005 Finals. Manu showed solid mid-range game and an amazing euro. Pop may hate 3s, but they won with those 15 years ago (watch Horry's).

[michaelm]

There is reason to suspect this virus if of bat origin as seems very likely won't be as affected by temperature as other viruses since bats as the only mammals capable of flight apparently have a high metabolic rate and raise their temperature during flight.

I saw something in a finance context about a company which has a product which uses ultraviolet for sterilisation in general which they say definitely kills the corona virus which I saw no reason to disbelieve, after which I surmised sunlight might have some effect which an article cited in this thread apparently confirms. It is however a big step from there to saying Floridians don't need to worry about the virus or that summer will end the epidemic in Florida or elsewhere in the USA.

It's not only this. Viruses don't magically all die in the summer, and Asia's already seeing countries w/ a 2nd resurgense.

Direct UV exposure does kill viruses but that's a strong UV light held very close (well at least relative).

It's why X rays can cause cancer but sunlight doesn't do it as fast, UV from the sun is massively weaker than those sources. UV causes skin cancer but only with prolonged sun exposure, sun light is really weak UV compared to lab sterilization in general.

Edit: This is kind of a simplified way to put it, but to get the idea across.

Just replying to add sources:

UV light shows a lot of promise: SSLEEC member company Seoul Semiconductor in early April reported a "99.9% sterilization of coronavirus (COVID-19) in 30 seconds" with their UV LED products. Their technology currently is being adopted for automotive use, in UV LED lamps that sterilize the interior of unoccupied vehicles.

It's worth noting that not all UV wavelengths are alike. UV-A and UV-B -- the types we get a lot of here on Earth courtesy of the Sun -- have important uses, but the rare UV-C is the ultraviolet light of choice for purifying air and water and for inactivating microbes. These can be generated only via human-made processes.

"UV-C light in the 260 -- 285 nm range most relevant for current disinfection technologies is also harmful to human skin, so for now it is mostly used in applications where no one is present at the time of disinfection," Zollner said. In fact, the World Health Organization warns against using ultraviolet disinfection lamps to sanitize hands or other areas of the skin -- even brief exposure to UV-C light can cause burns and eye damage.

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/04/200414173251.htm

The wavelength of UV radiation (UVR) lies in the range of 100–400 nm, and is further subdivided into UVA (315–400 nm), UVB (280–315 nm), and UVC (100–280 nm). The UV component of terrestrial radiation from the midday sun comprises about 95% UVA and 5% UVB; UVC and most of UVB are removed from extraterrestrial radiation by stratospheric ozone.

Approximately 5% of solar terrestrial radiation is UVR, and solar radiation is the major source of human exposure to UVR.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK304366/

Sure, I think the ultraviolet sterilisation thing is the same one I read. The advantage is apparently that it doesn’t break down surfaces the way alcohol based disinfection does. I realised it was much more intense than sunlight, the UVC thing not so much.

[HotRocks34]

The difference between Florida opening its beaches and this is that with stay at home regulation you might have around 250 or so people at a park at one time whereas without regulations, there would probably be 10 times as many.

Also the age demographic is very different between NY and FL. People retire in NY to move to FL so it is inherently a high risk state.

Both New York and Florida have stay at home orders in effect currently. So there would seem to be no difference in that regard between the two states. In other words, if the stay at home order is throttling back how many people go to Central Park, then you would think that the same effect would be taking place in Florida for the same reason.

I will say this, however: in the Duval County beach, at least, there are specific hours a person can go to the beach (and times they cannot go). In order to keep the flow of people light, they may want to just have the beach open during all daylight hours as this could help thin out the crowd rather than having crowds concentrate for a few hours per day. I don't think Central Park has specific times of the day it is open, in contrast.

As far as Florida, New York and elderly population, you're right about how things often work (retirees move to Florida). However, NYC actually has more elderly people than do the two Florida counties who have opened their beaches. Here's the data.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/St._Johns_County,_Florida
Population = 254,261
% of population over 65 = 15.9%
Population over 65 = 40,427
(Approximate figure as the "% of population over 65" is from the 2000 Census, apparently)

http://edr.state.fl.us/Content/area-profiles/county/duval.pdf
Population = 864,263
% of population over 65 = 11.1%
Population over 65 = 95,933

Combined "population of 65+ age" of the two counties = 136,360


From 2017 for New York City
https://nycfuture.org/research/new-yorks-older-adult-population-is-booming-statewide
"The number of older adults in Manhattan increased by 33 percent, going from 200,261 in 2007 to 267,255 in 2017, compared to a 2 percent decline in the population under-65."


So, just in Manhattan itself (the NYC borough where Central Park is, and not counting the other four boroughs of the city), you have about double the number of 65+ aged persons as you have in the entirety of the combined two Florida counties which opened their beaches.

The New York City situation seems riskier, just in terms of numbers of elderly, and that does not take into account that the "sick" level of NYC is (or has been) far beyond that of the two counties in Florida that opened their beaches (as I alluded to in previous posts, the two counties in Florida have about a 1 person in 1000 positive test rate for the virus, whereas NYC recently had around a 13 persons in 1000 positive rest rate).


I said in my post above that I trusted Governor Cuomo on the issue. But I'm not sure he's making the call for the NYC parks. And I say that because not too long ago he didn't seem thrilled with how things were being handled at the parks.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-23/the-crowds-at-new-york-s-central-park-is-getting-cuomo-irritated

Tired of being cooped up at home, hordes of New Yorkers headed to Central Park and other open spaces in the city over the weekend -- and that’s making Governor Andrew Cuomo very irritated.

“It’s insensitive, it’s arrogant, it’s self-destructive, it’s disrespectful to other people, and it has to stop, and it has to stop now,” he said. “This is not a joke, and I am not kidding.”

...

“We talk about social distancing,” he said. “I was in these parks, and you would not know that anything was going on.”

So, I'm not sure it's right to put things on Cuomo here. This may be more in De Blasio's hands, I'm not sure.


From what I can tell (need to do more research, to be honest), the keeping-open of NYC parks and the opening of Florida beaches is intended to give people a place to get out of their houses and get some quick exercise. And that's it. No loitering, no lingering, no sunbathing, etc.

I actually agree with that plan. As long as people keep social distancing in place while out and if they mostly (it will never be perfect) follow the rules.

[bondom34]

It's not only this. Viruses don't magically all die in the summer, and Asia's already seeing countries w/ a 2nd resurgense.

Direct UV exposure does kill viruses but that's a strong UV light held very close (well at least relative).

It's why X rays can cause cancer but sunlight doesn't do it as fast, UV from the sun is massively weaker than those sources. UV causes skin cancer but only with prolonged sun exposure, sun light is really weak UV compared to lab sterilization in general.

Edit: This is kind of a simplified way to put it, but to get the idea across.

Just replying to add sources:

UV light shows a lot of promise: SSLEEC member company Seoul Semiconductor in early April reported a "99.9% sterilization of coronavirus (COVID-19) in 30 seconds" with their UV LED products. Their technology currently is being adopted for automotive use, in UV LED lamps that sterilize the interior of unoccupied vehicles.

It's worth noting that not all UV wavelengths are alike. UV-A and UV-B -- the types we get a lot of here on Earth courtesy of the Sun -- have important uses, but the rare UV-C is the ultraviolet light of choice for purifying air and water and for inactivating microbes. These can be generated only via human-made processes.

"UV-C light in the 260 -- 285 nm range most relevant for current disinfection technologies is also harmful to human skin, so for now it is mostly used in applications where no one is present at the time of disinfection," Zollner said. In fact, the World Health Organization warns against using ultraviolet disinfection lamps to sanitize hands or other areas of the skin -- even brief exposure to UV-C light can cause burns and eye damage.

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/04/200414173251.htm

The wavelength of UV radiation (UVR) lies in the range of 100–400 nm, and is further subdivided into UVA (315–400 nm), UVB (280–315 nm), and UVC (100–280 nm). The UV component of terrestrial radiation from the midday sun comprises about 95% UVA and 5% UVB; UVC and most of UVB are removed from extraterrestrial radiation by stratospheric ozone.

Approximately 5% of solar terrestrial radiation is UVR, and solar radiation is the major source of human exposure to UVR.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK304366/

Sure, I think the ultraviolet sterilisation thing is the same one I read. The advantage is apparently that it doesn’t break down surfaces the way alcohol based disinfection does. I realised it was much more intense than sunlight, the UVC thing not so much.

Unfortunately we're not walking around with UV lights (this isn't something contradicting you, but seeing nymets posts on this last night just seem to be giving an idea that this will magically go away, which seems right now to be mostly wishful thinking from what I've read, it may go down some but there's nothing definite and Singapore's resurgence seems to indicate otherwise).

It's still a matter of continued social distancing.

Also yep, sunburn will happen more in general depending on genetics too.

[Slava]

The difference between Florida opening its beaches and this is that with stay at home regulation you might have around 250 or so people at a park at one time whereas without regulations, there would probably be 10 times as many.

Also the age demographic is very different between NY and FL. People retire in NY to move to FL so it is inherently a high risk state.

Both New York and Florida have stay at home orders in effect currently. So there would seem to be no difference in that regard between the two states. In other words, if the stay at home order is throttling back how many people go to Central Park, then you would think that the same effect would be taking place in Florida for the same reason.

I will say this, however: in the Duval County beach, at least, there are specific hours a person can go to the beach (and times they cannot go). In order to keep the flow of people light, they may want to just have the beach open during all daylight hours as this could help thin out the crowd rather than having crowds concentrate for a few hours per day. I don't think Central Park has specific times of the day it is open, in contrast.

As far as Florida, New York and elderly population, you're right about how things often work (retirees move to Florida). However, NYC actually has more elderly people than do the two Florida counties who have opened their beaches. Here's the data.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/St._Johns_County,_Florida
Population = 254,261
% of population over 65 = 15.9%
Population over 65 = 40,427
(Approximate figure as the "% of population over 65" is from the 2000 Census, apparently)

http://edr.state.fl.us/Content/area-profiles/county/duval.pdf
Population = 864,263
% of population over 65 = 11.1%
Population over 65 = 95,933

Combined "population of 65+ age" of the two counties = 136,360


From 2017 for New York City
https://nycfuture.org/research/new-yorks-older-adult-population-is-booming-statewide
"The number of older adults in Manhattan increased by 33 percent, going from 200,261 in 2007 to 267,255 in 2017, compared to a 2 percent decline in the population under-65."


So, just in Manhattan itself (the NYC borough where Central Park is, and not counting the other four boroughs of the city), you have about double the number of 65+ aged persons as you have in the entirety of the combined two Florida counties which opened their beaches.

The New York City situation seems riskier, just in terms of numbers of elderly, and that does not take into account that the "sick" level of NYC is (or has been) far beyond that of the two counties in Florida that opened their beaches (as I alluded to in previous posts, the two counties in Florida have about a 1 person in 1000 positive test rate for the virus, whereas NYC recently had around a 13 persons in 1000 positive rest rate).


I said in my post above that I trusted Governor Cuomo on the issue. But I'm not sure he's making the call for the NYC parks. And I say that because not too long ago he didn't seem thrilled with how things were being handled at the parks.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-23/the-crowds-at-new-york-s-central-park-is-getting-cuomo-irritated

Tired of being cooped up at home, hordes of New Yorkers headed to Central Park and other open spaces in the city over the weekend -- and that’s making Governor Andrew Cuomo very irritated.

“It’s insensitive, it’s arrogant, it’s self-destructive, it’s disrespectful to other people, and it has to stop, and it has to stop now,” he said. “This is not a joke, and I am not kidding.”

...

“We talk about social distancing,” he said. “I was in these parks, and you would not know that anything was going on.”

So, I'm not sure it's right to put things on Cuomo here. This may be more in De Blasio's hands, I'm not sure.


From what I can tell (need to do more research, to be honest), the keeping-open of NYC parks and the opening of Florida beaches is intended to give people a place to get out of their houses and get some quick exercise. And that's it. No loitering, no lingering, no sunbathing, etc.

I actually agree with that plan. As long as people keep social distancing in place while out and if they mostly (it will never be perfect) follow the rules.

Its not just what percentage of the population is older but the count matters here. It doesn't matter if x% of the population is older but if one county has more number of older people and 1% of them get sick, the two FL counties together would still have ~1300 sick people compared to the 400 in Manhattan.

Ofcourse the population density in Manhattan is higher and therefore more vectors for transmission etc.

Another factor here is that NY according to the governor has already reached its peak whereas cases in Florida were still rising the last I read. The number of critical care beds, medical staff etc also matter.

I personally don't mind them opening the beaches with regulations of no loitering, sunbathing etc. We've had the same thing here in Europe and other than a few joggers, the beaches are mostly deserted because there is inherently a higher trust of government and officials in Europe than it is in America. Which is the last thing that matters because once you tell someone in America something isn't allowed, they feel the need to be on the beach because they feel the need to exercise their freedom even if they've never been the type to go there and do the things that are forbidden.