Semi-OT: Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread

[NBAFan93]

I don't really understand the protesters who are lobbying to Governors to open their respective economies back up. Public confidence plays a big role in the economy. It's all domino effect too in almost every industry is affected by another. There's no protester that is going to change the mind of PEOPLE who want to stay home and safe until the health/science people tell us otherwise. And without that, it doesn't really matter what any governor does. I think some of these protesters are pretty naive if they think they can rush this by protesting.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/20/us/protests-coronavirus-stay-at-home-orders/index.html

These posters are repeating political talking points and let’s just say these protests aren’t all on the level. I honestly wonder how posters that what to open up the economy actually picture life operating? It’s crazy to risk the virus spreading for what will definitely not be a return to pre corona economic situation.

Regarding the protests the thing that disgusts me the most are the comments from Americans literally wishing them death and sickness and saying they don’t deserve medical treatment if they get sick. Maybe you don’t agree with them, but I think that’s an absolutely horrible thing to say about and wish upon fellow humans just for going outside and standing together not wearing masks. Similar stuff said about the people in the photos on the beaches.

If that’s how people feel about people who actually have the nerve to gather in a somewhat regular fashion on 4/20 - there isn’t any way in hell that the country is opening up in May. People will be doing things like physically assaulting and shaming the first people that dare go outside if these nasty comments are indications. The virus has literally turned this country into a police state of hate and fear of each other and getting back to normal seems further away than ever after over a month of everyone locked inside.

And the NBA can forget about playing games anytime soon cause I’m sure people will be wishing them death and sickness too, especially if they are the first to try to do something.

[Kabookalu]

I don't really understand the protesters who are lobbying to Governors to open their respective economies back up. Public confidence plays a big role in the economy. It's all domino effect too in almost every industry is affected by another. There's no protester that is going to change the mind of PEOPLE who want to stay home and safe until the health/science people tell us otherwise. And without that, it doesn't really matter what any governor does. I think some of these protesters are pretty naive if they think they can rush this by protesting.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/20/us/protests-coronavirus-stay-at-home-orders/index.html

These posters are repeating political talking points and let’s just say these protests aren’t all on the level. I honestly wonder how posters that what to open up the economy actually picture life operating? It’s crazy to risk the virus spreading for what will definitely not be a return to pre corona economic situation.

Regarding the protests the thing that disgusts me the most are the comments from Americans literally wishing them death and sickness and saying they don’t deserve medical treatment if they get sick. Maybe you don’t agree with them, but I think that’s an absolutely horrible thing to say about and wish upon fellow humans just for going outside and standing together not wearing masks. Similar stuff said about the people in the photos on the beaches.

If that’s how people feel about people who actually have the nerve to gather in a somewhat regular fashion on 4/20 - there isn’t any way in hell that the country is opening up in May. People will be doing things like physically assaulting and shaming the first people that dare go outside if these nasty comments are indications. The virus has literally turned this country into a police state of hate and fear of each other and getting back to normal seems further away than ever after over a month of everyone locked inside.

And the NBA can forget about playing games anytime soon cause I’m sure people will be wishing them death and sickness too, especially if they are the first to try to do something.

It's also horrible of them to inhibit the jobs of medical workers trying to save lives, or harassing governors at their homes because they can't get a haircut. Most of all to act like these protests are harmless, is to be completely ignorant of why we're having a quarantine in the first place. They could all be contracting the virus together and acting as asymptomatic carriers, spreading it to more people, who'll spread it to more people, until it eventually reaches a person vulnerable enough to die from this virus.

No I don't wish for anyone to die, but if they get sick, I can't say I have the capacity to feel sorry for them. It has to personally effect these crazies for them to actually understand the magnitude of the situation.

[DowJones]

I don't really understand the protesters who are lobbying to Governors to open their respective economies back up. Public confidence plays a big role in the economy. It's all domino effect too in almost every industry is affected by another. There's no protester that is going to change the mind of PEOPLE who want to stay home and safe until the health/science people tell us otherwise. And without that, it doesn't really matter what any governor does. I think some of these protesters are pretty naive if they think they can rush this by protesting.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/20/us/protests-coronavirus-stay-at-home-orders/index.html

I think the argument is once things open, and you don't see a massive spike in death and overrun hospitals, then the people that are scared right now will feel more comfortable coming out.

[DoubleLintendre]

Mods: Going to keep this as short as I can

snip

Thanks for the polite response.

1. Peter Navarro is not a medical expert. He is known as someone who dislikes China. If Navarro can say something bad about China or make doomsday predictions about China, he will. That's just his reputation. He's a "China hawk." But no one is going to Navarro for advice on medical matters. He's simply not qualified to give that advice. Navarro is a Ph.D. in economics and has a Masters of Public Affairs

2. Azar, not a medical expert. He's a lawyer.

At the time of the Navarro and Azar input, the Virus Task Force had just been formed (I think January 29). Fauci was on it (Birx would come later). At that point, Fauci was "the guy" giving medical advice, it appears. He would be the person that everything would run though, I would imagine, rather than Azar, Navarro or anyone else.

We saw what Fauci said in the video above. The remarks he made at the start of that briefing were in response to the 2nd NYT article you cited, I believe, and in response to an interview he gave the day previous that took from that article (the "advisors decided on strategy in late Feb" piece).

What Fauci said, I think slightly before the 5:15 prompting I suggested so people can see that Fauci said Trump took the recommendation to mitigate as soon as it was offered, was that the medical experts were talking among themselves about what should be the next step. The information apparently never got to Trump. Should it have? I don't know, but obviously Fauci didn't make that move and when Birx came on they didn't feel they had to make the move until, it seems, the devastation in Europe began and things looked clearer about how bad the virus was.

Could Fauci (and Birx) be lying? I guess. I don't think they are, but who knows?

One thing I'll say about them both is that I'm sure both of them have significant egos. I don't mean that in a bad way, either. What I mean is that they are supposed to be "the guys" on infectious diseases. And they would look like heroes had there ended up being, say, 1000 USA deaths rather than maybe 70,000. And, in their minds, it appears, they feel that what was not told to them interfered with their being in a position to make the right call at the right time. They are basically on the hook, if you will, if things went wrong in the USA.

Fauci always has struck me as something of an innocent, naive kind of guy. I don't take him for a liar.

As I did say above, however, if Fauci and Birx knew the risks early on and did not act, they're negligent. I really don't think either one of them wants to be in that position, or wanted to be. So my guess is they acted as soon as they felt they had to.

On the WHO warning, that for sure was key. The only problem is that there apparently was a scarcity of data to back it up. In other words, you can warn the world a tornado is coming. But is it a Category 1 tornado or a Category 5 tornado? Preparations will vary depending on the assumed severity.

What I realize now, after looking over this stuff a bit, is that what Birx (and I'm guessing Fauci) seems to be most concerned with (or, if you will, angry about) is not having the transmissibility information. R-naught, I think it's called. She mentioned that specifically in the interview from yesterday I cited.

And I get why that is, now. Because if you know the thing is super transmissible, you go to hard mitigation faster. Because mitigation is intended to reduce spread. But if you don't think the thing is very transmissible, you don't worry about hard mitigation as much, possibly.

What seems to have taken place here, as Birx says, is that the lack of information (hard data) from China combined with the good success of South Korea, Taiwan and other Asian nations lulled the USA experts into a false sense of security (or, to be fair, they were in the dark and did not know) about what the virus really was. That's what Fauci seems to be suggesting in his later remarks in the video I posted. You can see he had one concept of the virus, then that got shattered and replaced with another concept. And the "true" nature of the beast, so to speak, only really showed itself when it hit Europe. At least for experts who didn't have the China hard data.

There are quotes from Fauci saying on March 9 that it's ok to go on cruises if you're young and healthy. And he said on March 10 that not all schools in the USA needed to be shut. These don't seem to be the comments of someone who fully appreciated what the virus was at that time. But the carnage in Europe soon after apparently altered his mind considerably. If you look at the death curve in Italy, it began in earnest around March 11:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/

Just so you know, I do not, as an American, see China as some Epitome Of Evil Enemy or anything like that. Same on the WHO. Accidents happen, disasters happen, and things can domino from there. Sometimes people have no bad intentions and things just get out of hand. When they do, sometimes people don't react well in the moment. But that doesn't mean they're "evil" or any of that stuff. Look, the USA CDC botched the early testing kits. Were they trying to do so? No. But it still happened. Things can and do happen, in negative ways, sometimes. Hopefully people handle them well when they happen.

REFERENCES:

Fauci on March 9: "I think if you’re a healthy young person that there is no reason; if you want to go on a cruise ship, to go on a cruise ship"
https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/04/13/nolte-fauci-okayed-campaign-rallies-cruise-ships-healthy-march-9/

Fauci on March 10: Don't need to close all USA schools
https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/486910-fauci-to-public-you-have-to-start-taking-seriously-steps-to-slow

Thanks for the long answer w/ references. I'll respond quoting the whole post to reference more easily.

Peter Navarro is not a medical expert. He is known as someone who dislikes China. If Navarro can say something bad about China or make doomsday predictions about China, he will. That's just his reputation. He's a "China hawk." But no one is going to Navarro for advice on medical matters. He's simply not qualified to give that advice. Navarro is a Ph.D. in economics and has a Masters of Public Affairs

True he's not a medical expert. He's Assistant to the President, Director of Trade and Manufacturing Policy, and the national Defense Production Act policy coordinator. But isn't the intersection of health and economics the de-facto issue at hand in America at the moment? From his memo he outlines the economic impact of how America would be affected by a pandemic. Excepts from his report are prophetic about the damage to the US.








Whether or not someone is pro-China or anti-China or somewhere in between, an epidemic is not a partisan issue. Viral disease closer to a natural disaster, like a hurricane or earthquake, than anything else. When someone notifies an authority there's a nearby wildfire, the appropriate response can't be "how could you know, you're not a fireman".

Alex Azar serves in the current administration's cabinet as the United States Secretary of Health and Human Services. He's an attorney by trade, but that's not his position. I would think the "Health and Human Service" official with a cabinet position is extremely relevant to the President's information pipeline. Especially if he's able to do the following:

Azar called Trump on January 18 while the president was at his Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida to brief him about the severity of the novel coronavirus.

source: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8190167/Donald-Trump-dismissed-Health-Secretary-Alex-Azars-January-coronavirus-warning-alarmist.html (conversation confirmed in other articles as well)

The president dismissed this as "alarmist" in subsequent media appearances. This was a one-on-one phone call. It's also worth noting is that Azar, who was appointed by Trump, has been under intense scrutiny for not pushing the issue harder around this time.

There's a specter of qualification here that impedes accountability. Fauci/Birx can't have known: WHO didn't share information (a warning was not sufficient). Azar is jumping the gun. Navarro is out of his depth, even with a detailed (on the money) fallout analysis. I get if the public or the media dismisses warning signs-- we're not supposed to be experts. But decision-makers downplayed fellow officials and a global World Health Organization notice.

I mean on January 30th WHO declared the public health emergency. You're correct, the coronavirus task force was formed on the 29th. But big motions didn't happen that needed to early in February. The late response became a "too-late" response. There are questions about the US waiting for Europe to take the virus as a threat to the nation. Uncomfortable ones. Is it possible someone upstairs truly believed developed Western countries were superiorly equipped to handle what Eastern nations couldn't?

If the leaders of our country's egos are too cumbersome to investigate risk, I think we have to start taking a second look at the way we define experts.

Also disclaimer: I don't have a political opinion for or against any organization/nation. My responses in all the COVID-19 threads are attempts to place all the info together to find out what happened wrong and to examine if history had to happen the way it did.

[michaelm]

I would never question Dr. Birx's expertise. But her expertise clearly aren't numbers. I realize I'm probably not going to change your mind, so I'm not even going to try.

Ha ha. Fair enough, we can agree to disagree!

Birx actually seems quite good with numbers, IMO. Between her and Fauci, she's the "data wonk" or at least the person who seems to be handling the data on a day-to-day basis.nb

I'm sure both of them are very, very good at medical data tasks.

And I'm not dissing the Harvard recommendation or that of the former FDA guys. But it's the old saying -- too many cooks spoil the broth. You need to have your lead chefs, and let them do their thing.

On Germany -- last I saw, Germany was doing around 50,000 tests per day. And I think they're starting to re-open. I checked on their testing capacity awhile ago, but it may have changed since then. I know they want to do at least 200,000 per day, but wanting to and being able to are not the same thing.

If it was obvious to them they no doubt would have done something earlier. It was obvious to places which had experienced the SARS epidemic, admittedly in Taiwan’s case at least partly because they didn’t trust China. As I have said I don’t know what people thought was happening in China once they imposed the Wuhan lockdown including welding doors shut, I think there was some attribution of that to strange authoritarian behaviour in the opposite direction. The pattern has been similar in many places, the initial concern/focus for people is keeping their individual jobs, for businessmen keeping their businesses going, and for governments keeping the economies of their countries going, until stark reality intrudes and people start becoming ill and dying in significant numbers. Melbourne is located in the state of Victoria where the authorities went from insisting they could hold the Australian F1 GP which involved teams based in northern Italy to stage 3 lockdown and being criticised for being more draconian in some respects than in other states in a couple of weeks.

As has been said though what is harder to defend both in regard to both China and the WHO is the initial objection to travel bans. An ex politician in Australia I normally consider to be incapable of rational thought has also raised the point of why they allowed international flights from Wuhan to continue while draconian internal measures were in place, although this cuts both ways of course. I don’t think anyone including me believes China’s numbers either.

[DowJones]

I don't really understand the protesters who are lobbying to Governors to open their respective economies back up. Public confidence plays a big role in the economy. It's all domino effect too in almost every industry is affected by another. There's no protester that is going to change the mind of PEOPLE who want to stay home and safe until the health/science people tell us otherwise. And without that, it doesn't really matter what any governor does. I think some of these protesters are pretty naive if they think they can rush this by protesting.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/20/us/protests-coronavirus-stay-at-home-orders/index.html

These posters are repeating political talking points and let’s just say these protests aren’t all on the level. I honestly wonder how posters that what to open up the economy actually picture life operating? It’s crazy to risk the virus spreading for what will definitely not be a return to pre corona economic situation.

So are you advocating for shelter in place to continue over the next 18-36 months until we find a vaccine? It's not like this virus is just going to disappear. It will always be out there until a vaccine is found. There is no way to prevent the risk of spreading the virus until a vaccine is found.

[DowJones]

I think it's important to remember what the original intent of shelter in place was. It was never to prevent as many people from getting the disease as possible. It was about spreading the rate at which people got infected so as to not put maximum pressure on our healthcare system.

[Kabookalu]

I don't really understand the protesters who are lobbying to Governors to open their respective economies back up. Public confidence plays a big role in the economy. It's all domino effect too in almost every industry is affected by another. There's no protester that is going to change the mind of PEOPLE who want to stay home and safe until the health/science people tell us otherwise. And without that, it doesn't really matter what any governor does. I think some of these protesters are pretty naive if they think they can rush this by protesting.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/20/us/protests-coronavirus-stay-at-home-orders/index.html

These posters are repeating political talking points and let’s just say these protests aren’t all on the level. I honestly wonder how posters that what to open up the economy actually picture life operating? It’s crazy to risk the virus spreading for what will definitely not be a return to pre corona economic situation.

So are you advocating for shelter in place to continue over the next 18-36 months until we find a vaccine? It's not like this virus is just going to disappear. It will always be out there until a vaccine is found. There is no way to prevent the risk of spreading the virus until a vaccine is found.

Having a 2 year quarantine was never realistic. There are measures that can take place to mitigate the risk of infection, like there are measures to prevent all other sorts of fatalities. However the federal government has left all the states to figure this out for themselves instead of trying to come up with a universal guideline to try and reopen the economy. Just stating that the economy should be reopened does nothing to help us.

[NBAFan93]

I don't really understand the protesters who are lobbying to Governors to open their respective economies back up. Public confidence plays a big role in the economy. It's all domino effect too in almost every industry is affected by another. There's no protester that is going to change the mind of PEOPLE who want to stay home and safe until the health/science people tell us otherwise. And without that, it doesn't really matter what any governor does. I think some of these protesters are pretty naive if they think they can rush this by protesting.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/20/us/protests-coronavirus-stay-at-home-orders/index.html

These posters are repeating political talking points and let’s just say these protests aren’t all on the level. I honestly wonder how posters that what to open up the economy actually picture life operating? It’s crazy to risk the virus spreading for what will definitely not be a return to pre corona economic situation.

So are you advocating for shelter in place to continue over the next 18-36 months until we find a vaccine? It's not like this virus is just going to disappear. It will always be out there until a vaccine is found. There is no way to prevent the risk of spreading the virus until a vaccine is found.

From the reactions I see to these people protesting, I literally think people want that now - indefinite lockdown until some higher authority tells us it’s 100% safe and there is absolutely zero chance anyone will catch the virus. Anyone who disobeys should be locked in jail and injected w/ the virus and left to suffer and die.

They want to stay away from all others and live a life where the only social contact there is is through a computer screen or the once a week trip to the grocery store wearing masks (that you can’t even breathe in!) and a pair of gloves like we’re heading into a surgery or something. Seems like people want this.

[michaelm]

Meanwhile, over in China, they have newscasters telling the population that Covid-19 escaped an American lab and came from America over to China.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8237179/Beijings-state-anchor-tells-Arabic-world-coronavirus-pandemic-started-US.html

I think that alternate US origin conspiracy theory is nonsensical for a number of reasons, but the evidence for the China lab error theory is not all that much less circumstantial imo, and I am not sure which was first.

[NBAFan93]

I think it's important to remember what the original intent of shelter in place was. It was never to prevent as many people from getting the disease as possible. It was about spreading the rate at which people got infected so as to not put maximum pressure on our healthcare system.

People have clearly lost that message/intent. If that was the reason, any area w/ empty hospitals should be okay to open some things and allow people to gather within reason. No one feels that way though.

Perhaps these numbers should inciude a tallies for hospital capacities along w/ the confirmed cases and deaths. May give a better understanding of what’s going on and how close an area is to being able to open.

[michaelm]

I don't really understand the protesters who are lobbying to Governors to open their respective economies back up. Public confidence plays a big role in the economy. It's all domino effect too in almost every industry is affected by another. There's no protester that is going to change the mind of PEOPLE who want to stay home and safe until the health/science people tell us otherwise. And without that, it doesn't really matter what any governor does. I think some of these protesters are pretty naive if they think they can rush this by protesting.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/20/us/protests-coronavirus-stay-at-home-orders/index.html

These posters are repeating political talking points and let’s just say these protests aren’t all on the level. I honestly wonder how posters that what to open up the economy actually picture life operating? It’s crazy to risk the virus spreading for what will definitely not be a return to pre corona economic situation.

So are you advocating for shelter in place to continue over the next 18-36 months until we find a vaccine? It's not like this virus is just going to disappear. It will always be out there until a vaccine is found. There is no way to prevent the risk of spreading the virus until a vaccine is found.

I agree except that a proven anti-viral therapy might also be game changing, and perhaps more likely to be achieved and if an existing therapy like remdesivir much more quickly achievable.

[Topofthekey]

Meanwhile, over in China, they have newscasters telling the population that Covid-19 escaped an American lab and came from America over to China.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8237179/Beijings-state-anchor-tells-Arabic-world-coronavirus-pandemic-started-US.html

I think that alternate US origin conspiracy theory is nonsensical for a number of reasons, but the evidence for the China lab error theory is not all that much less circumstantial imo, and I am not sure which was first.

Ok, assuming that I buy Trump's argument, that the reason why the pandemic is wreaking havoc in the US and the west now is because of China's lies, that it's all China's fault, and that things wouldn't be so bad in the US if China didn't lie

How do you explain other Asian countries?

Japan, South Korea, Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore, etc

So far, as of April 20th, the death toll in those countries are 236, 236, 47, 89, and 11, respectively.
(source: https://www.statista.com/statistics/1093256/novel-coronavirus-2019ncov-deaths-worldwide-by-country/)

Did China not lie to them as well?

[HotRocks34]

(snip)

Unfortunately for Navarro, my guess is that his reputation (and lack of subject expertise) likely killed any chance to be taken seriously on the subject. It's a boy who cried wolf matter, I think. If you've ever seen the author Gordon Chang it's a similar thing. Any chance there is to take a shot at China is not missed. And anything bad in the world seems to have some relationship to (bad) China.

I don't know who saw Navarro's letter and whether it ever made it to people like Fauci. I don't think it would have had any effect had it made it to Fauci. It's simply someone speculating beyond their depth, regardless of how accurate or inaccurate their claims may have been when examining them now.

It's as I mentioned in regards to the intelligence community. The intelligence community might witness something (like an outbreak in a nation) and tell you it took place, but they may not be able to tell you what the IFR/CFR of the disease is or what the R-naught transmissibility factor is. So unless they can give hard details, the report may not mean much to someone like Fauci.



Whatever one thinks of Trump, like him or not like him, I think we can all agree he's no infectious disease expert. Navarro (whose memo apparently never made it to Trump), Azar, etc telling him things isn't likely to mean a whole lot, because it's the kind of call you leave up to people like Fauci. He did do the China travel restriction on the same day (or maybe the day after) that the WHO declared the disease a global health emergency. So maybe that announcement had some effect.



With Azar, I don't know the details as I have not read the articles in question. Did Azar tell Fauci this information? Did Trump tell Fauci what Azar told him? Don't know.

So, regardless of whatever Azar said or did not say, and who he did or did not say it to, the Virus Task Force was created on January 29 to specifically and exclusively deal with the issue. The list of people on the task force when it started is here:

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/statement-press-secretary-regarding-presidents-coronavirus-task-force/

Secretary Alex Azar, Department of Health and Human Services

Robert O’Brien, Assistant to the President for National Security Affairs

Dr. Robert Redfield, Director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

Dr. Anthony Fauci, Director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases at the National Institutes of Health

Deputy Secretary Stephen Biegun, Department of State

Ken Cuccinelli, Acting Deputy Secretary, Department of Homeland Security

Joel Szabat, Acting Under Secretary for Policy, Department of Transportation

Matthew Pottinger, Assistant to the President and Deputy National Security Advisor

Rob Blair, Assistant to the President and Senior Advisor to the Chief of Staff

Joseph Grogan, Assistant to the President and Director of the Domestic Policy Council

Christopher Liddell, Assistant to the President and Deputy Chief of Staff for Policy Coordination

Derek Kan, Executive Associate Director, Office of Management and Budget

If Azar wanted to share his concern with the task force similar to how he supposedly did with Trump on the phone, he could have done so then. And he probably did do that. And my guess is that Fauci and Redfield likely thought or said "we got this, Alex" and took over from there.

I respect Azar quite a bit, think he's a solid guy (at least in terms of public presentation). But he, like Navarro, is not someone who can navigate the terrain of an infectious disease outbreak in the way you would expect Fauci, Redfield or Birx to be able to do so. Just as I'm sure Azar would not presume that Fauci could tell him how to write a legal brief.

This is all I know, from not reading the articles in question. From what I've heard in the briefings the Navarro memo never made it to Trump and, if I had to guess, never made it very far, period. But it didn't need to; Fauci and Redfield (and Birx) don't need an economist Ph.D. to tell them how to handle a pandemic.

As mentioned above, Fauci on March 9-10 was not acting like someone who thought the virus was an existential threat, IMO. He, and I guess Birx, just didn't seem to view the virus in that manner at the time. But they soon changed their tune, and that subsequently led to the 15 Days start of the social distancing/shutdown we are in the midst of now.

As Birx mentioned in one of her interviews yesterday, once things are over in handling the pandemic in the USA, then a more complete review of what took place can be had. It should be interesting. Given the statements of Fauci and Birx, it seems relatively evident what they are going to say in regards to the question "what happened?"

[michaelm]

Meanwhile, over in China, they have newscasters telling the population that Covid-19 escaped an American lab and came from America over to China.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8237179/Beijings-state-anchor-tells-Arabic-world-coronavirus-pandemic-started-US.html

I think that alternate US origin conspiracy theory is nonsensical for a number of reasons, but the evidence for the China lab error theory is not all that much less circumstantial imo, and I am not sure which was first.

Ok, assuming that I buy Trump's argument, that the reason why the pandemic is wreaking havoc in the US and the west now is because of China's lies, that it's all China's fault, and that things wouldn't be so bad in the US if China didn't lie

How do you explain other Asian countries?

Japan, South Korea, Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore, etc

So far, as of April 20th, the death toll in those countries are 236, 236, 47, 89, and 11, respectively.
(source: https://www.statista.com/statistics/1093256/novel-coronavirus-2019ncov-deaths-worldwide-by-country/)

Did China not lie to them as well?

I was not intending to support Trump or his approach, just stating that imo both the China lab origin theory and the US lab origin theory are based on circumstantial evidence.

[HotRocks34]

If it was obvious to them they no doubt would have done something earlier. It was obvious to places which had experienced the SARS epidemic, admittedly in Taiwan’s case at least partly because they didn’t trust China.

I agree with you on both points.

As I said to DoubleLintendree above, whatever Azar said to Trump on the phone in mid-January he could (and I would guess did) have repeated to Fauci and Redfield in late January when the task force was first assembled.

Thus, the only piece of "information" that Fauci may have been missing, if you want to call it that, were Navarro's thoughts. And that's a non-starter in my book. I don't know who had access to what Navarro wrote, or what they did with it (kept it away from Trump?, kept away from the task force?, etc), but it seems to have come out at the same time that the task force was formed. Whatever Navarro knows about infectious diseases and strategies to contain them, his knowledge doesn't compare with what Fauci, Redfield and Birx know. Or to put it a different way, there's nothing Navarro said (if useful on the subject of managing a pandemic) that wouldn't already be in their thoughts (except perhaps the economic effect of a pandemic in the USA, which is not in their wheelhouse).

The concept of Fauci or Birx or Redfield hesitating to act on a mitigation strategy while knowing the virus was so damaging seems unconscionable to me. It would be beyond professional neglect and going deep into, IMO, the criminal and immoral. Given Birx's comments regarding moral obligations in a pandemic, I just cannot see any way in which she and the medical experts acted any later than when they realized what they were facing. So yeah, I'm with you, I think they made their move as soon as things became obvious to them. And they seem to feel that if they had more hard data up front, they would have realized things sooner.

[mtron929]

I don't really understand the protesters who are lobbying to Governors to open their respective economies back up. Public confidence plays a big role in the economy. It's all domino effect too in almost every industry is affected by another. There's no protester that is going to change the mind of PEOPLE who want to stay home and safe until the health/science people tell us otherwise. And without that, it doesn't really matter what any governor does. I think some of these protesters are pretty naive if they think they can rush this by protesting.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/20/us/protests-coronavirus-stay-at-home-orders/index.html

These posters are repeating political talking points and let’s just say these protests aren’t all on the level. I honestly wonder how posters that what to open up the economy actually picture life operating? It’s crazy to risk the virus spreading for what will definitely not be a return to pre corona economic situation.

So are you advocating for shelter in place to continue over the next 18-36 months until we find a vaccine? It's not like this virus is just going to disappear. It will always be out there until a vaccine is found. There is no way to prevent the risk of spreading the virus until a vaccine is found.

I don't think many (probably less than 1% of people) are advocating that people stay quarantined for 18-36 months. However, I think you just need to be patient because the short-term trend does look good. There are really two possible outcomes: (1) the number of cases keeps on going up - in which you would probably agree that we should stay until it stabilizes and (2) the number of cases keeps on going down (which you would probably bet on since you are eager to come out) - in which we can just wait 7-10 days for the trend to be established and then come out. So I think at most, if the downward trend persists for a week or so, then more people will be inclined to open up the economy and it will happen naturally.

Remember, most people have very flexible stances here. I can be saying that people should quarantine today but two weeks from now, I might be saying that everyone should come out now based on the data. No one has a strong stance here. It is all about observing the data and acting accordingly.

[nymets1]

Last night's numbers as of 9pm from bing.com/covid

USA- 764,177 confirmed cases(+20,921 increase), Recoveries- 70,172(+4767 increase), Deaths- 40,591(+1674 increase)
New York- 242,786 confimed cases (+6054 increase)
New Jersey- 85,301 confirmed cases (+3881 increase)
Mass- 38,077 confirmed cases(+1705 increase)
Penn- 32,284 confirmed cases(+2843 increase)
Michigan- 31,424 confirmed cases(+633 increase)
Illinois- 30,357 confirmed cases(+1197 increase)
California- 28,963 confirmed cases(+64 increase)
Florida- 26,314 confirmed cases(+822 increase)
Louisana- 23,928 confirmed cases(+810 increase)
Texas- 18,923 confirmed cases(+663 increase)
Georgia- 18,391 confirmed cases(+722 increase)
Connecticut- 17,962 confirmed cases(+412 increase)
Maryland- 12,830 confirmed cases(+379 increase)
Washington- 11,790 confirmed cases(+345 increase)
Ohio- 11,602 confirmed cases(+1380 increase)
Indiana- 11,510 confirmed cases(+569 increase)
Colorado- 9730 confirmed cases(+297 increase)

Spain- 198,674 confirmed cases(+3747 increase), Recoveries- 77,357(+2560 increase)
Italy- 178,972 confirmed cases(+917 increase)
Germany- 144,406 confirmed cases(+1296 increase)
United Kingdom- 120,067 confirmed cases(+5850 increase)

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

USA- 764,303 confirmed cases, Recoveries- 71,003, Deaths- 40,548
New York- 247,215 confirmed cases(+6174 increase)
New Jersey- 85,301 confirmed cases(+3881 increase)
Mass- 38,077 confirmed cases(+1705 increase)
Penn- 32,734 confirmed cases(+1003 increase)
California- 31,430 confirmed cases(+712 increase)
Michigan- 31,424 confirmed cases(+633 increase)
Illinois- 30,357 confirmed cases(+1197 increase)
Florida- 26,314 confirmed cases(+822 increase)
Louisana- 23,928 confirmed cases(+348 increase)
Texas- 19,317 confirmed cases(+638 increase)
Georgia- 18,157 confirmed cases(+316 increase)
Connecticut- 17,962 confirmed cases(+412 increase)
Maryland- 12,830 confirmed cases(+522 increase)
Washington- 12,261 confirmed cases(+459 increase)
Ohio- 11,602 confirmed cases(+1380 increase)
Indiana-11,210 confirmed cases(+569 increase)
Colorado- 9730 confirmed cases(+297 increase)

1. New Jersey is less than 15,000 new cases away from potentially reaching 100,000 confirmed cases
2. Connecticut is right behind Texas in total confimed cases and Texas is the 2nd largest US state but Texas is the worst or 2nd to worst US state in testing.
3. Louisana is now 9 straight days of low increase in new confirmed cases each day
4. Washington has had a small increase in new confirmed cases over 2 full weeks now, Now just have to watch their active cases left which is 9854
5. Texas now 8 straight days of low increase in new confirmed cases each day(full week)
6. Michigan, Florida and Georgia are among the top 11 states with the most confirmed cases and all 3 states now have 2 straight days of keeping their new confirmed cases under 1000 for the day.
7. USA had nearly 5000 recoveries today GREAT JOB
8. Ohio had a big jump today in new confirmed cases with 1380 increase, That's a small state

Today's numbers as of 9pm from bing.com/covid

USA- 795,898 confirmed cases(+29,718 increase), Recoveries- 72,715(+2003 increase), Deaths- 42,560(+1969 increase)

New York- 247,512 confirmed cases(+4726 increase)
New jersey- 88,806 confirmed cases(+3505 increase)
Mass- 39,643 confirmed cases(+1566 increase)
California- 33,404 confirmed cases(+4441 increase)
Penn- 33,232 confirmed cases(+948 increase)
Michigan- 32,000 confirmed cases(+1209 increase)
Illinois- 31,508 confirmed cases(+2348 increase)
Florida- 27,058 confirmed cases(+744 increase)
Louisana- 24,523 confirmed cases(+595 increase)
Connecticut- 19,815 confirmed cases(+1853 increase)
Texas- 19,458 confirmed cases(+535 increase)
Georgia- 19,399 confirmed cases(+1008 increase)
Maryland- 13,684 confirmed cases(+1230 increase)
Ohio- 12,919 confirmed cases(+2697 increase)
Washington- 11,934 confirmed cases(+132 increase)
Indiana- 11,686 confirmed cases(+1045 increase)
Colorado- 10,106 confirmed cases(+376 increase)
Virginia- 8990 confirmed cases(+2101 increase)

Spain- 200,210 confirmed cases, Recoveries- 80,587(+3230 increase)
Italy- 182,228 confirmed cases(+434 increase)
Germany- 147,139 confirmed cases(+2733 increase), Recoveries- 87,500
United Kingdom- 124,743 confirmed cases(+4676 increase)

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

USA- 792,759 confirmed cases, Recoveries- 72,389, Deaths- 42,514

New York-252,094 confirmed cases(+4879 increase)
New Jersey- 88,806 confirmed cases(+3505 increase)
Mass- 39,643 confirmed cases(+1566 increase)
Penn- 39,914 confirmed cases(+1180 increase)
California- 33,686 confirmed cases(+2256 increase)
Michigan- 32,000 confirmed cases(+576 increase)
Illinois- 31,508 confirmed cases(+1151 increase)
Florida- 27,058 confirmed cases(+744 increase)
Louisana- 24,523 confirmed cases(+595 increase)
Texas- 19,822 confirmed cases(+505 increase)
Connecticut- 19,815 confirmed cases(+1853 increase)
Georgia- 19,399 confirmed cases(+1242 increase)
Maryland- 13,284 confirmed cases(+854 increase)
Ohio- 12,919 confirmed cases(+1317 increase)
Washington- 12,085 confirmed cases(+295 increase)
Indiana- 11,686 confirmed cases(+476 increase)
Colorado- 10,106 confirmed cases(+376 increase)

1. New Jersey is less than 12,000 new cases away from potentially reaching 100,000 confirmed cases
2. Connecticut has just passed Texas in total confimed cases according to worldometers and Texas is the 2nd largest US state but Texas is the worst or 2nd to worst US state in testing.
3. Louisana is now 10 straight days of low increase in new confirmed cases each day
4. Washington has had a small increase in new confirmed cases over 2 full weeks now, Now just have to watch their active cases left which is 9651
5. Texas now 9 straight days of low increase in new confirmed cases each day
6. Michigan, Florida and Georgia are among the top 11 states with the most confirmed cases and Michigan and Florida now have 3 straight days of keeping their new confirmed cases under 1000 for the day. While Georgia had over 1000 new cases today
7. Ohio had a big jump today in new confirmed cases over 1000, different numbers from bing and worldometers as of 9pm eastern time. 2 straight days of increase in over 1000 cases each day.
8. New York is slowly bringing down their increase in new cases each day, They were increasing 7000 to almost 20,000 new cases each day but today they increased around +4800. Once New York gets a day that they only increase around 1000 per day or just under 1000 per day, Than New York would be under control.

[California Gold]

I don't really understand the protesters who are lobbying to Governors to open their respective economies back up. Public confidence plays a big role in the economy. It's all domino effect too in almost every industry is affected by another. There's no protester that is going to change the mind of PEOPLE who want to stay home and safe until the health/science people tell us otherwise. And without that, it doesn't really matter what any governor does. I think some of these protesters are pretty naive if they think they can rush this by protesting.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/20/us/protests-coronavirus-stay-at-home-orders/index.html

I think the argument is once things open, and you don't see a massive spike in death and overrun hospitals, then the people that are scared right now will feel more comfortable coming out.

I don't think it's going to be that clear cut. It's going to be a longer road to normalcy and that will affect the economy in terms of spending and jobs. Once stuff is back open, it's still going to be limited. You're going to have movie theaters at half capacity, restaurants at half capacity, etc. The people that used to have jobs but don't now will be spending less naturally. It's all a gradual thing. And a lot of how quick we get back to normalcy will depend on the Vaccine which isn't really coming until early next year from the sounds of it.

So all in all, the protests really aren't needed.

[NBAFan93]

These posters are repeating political talking points and let’s just say these protests aren’t all on the level. I honestly wonder how posters that what to open up the economy actually picture life operating? It’s crazy to risk the virus spreading for what will definitely not be a return to pre corona economic situation.

So are you advocating for shelter in place to continue over the next 18-36 months until we find a vaccine? It's not like this virus is just going to disappear. It will always be out there until a vaccine is found. There is no way to prevent the risk of spreading the virus until a vaccine is found.

I agree except that a proven anti-viral therapy might also be game changing, and perhaps more likely to be achieved and if an existing therapy like remdesivir much more quickly achievable.

Well if an antiviral therapy or a vaccine is the only acceptable end game, our leadership should tell us that along w/ an ETA on when those things will be ready so we can plan for and accept that situation. They owe us that so we aren’t sitting in limbo forever getting mad at each other for feeling the way we do and having different opinions.

If we are going to accept an opening (the three phases the WH released) before a therapy/vaccine is ready, they need to tell us what the specific criteria are to begin Phase 1, and give regular reports on where each area stands towards those criteria.

The above is how these types of things are handled in any well functioning organization, but what we have now is not that. It’s just a mixed bag of experts and political leaders spouting their opinions and, often partisan, attacks against those who feel differently, with no organized plan at all except for locking everything down to buy more time. It’s been over a month that we’ve been in this crisis/panic mode, and they still don’t have an organized plan or any answers for what we are going to do next. The inefficiencies of the US government’s structure are really showing right now.

It isn’t even clear who is in charge or who we should listen to? Is it Trump? Is it that Fauci guy? Is it the CDC? Is it the Governers? And who is advising the Governors? Do they all have their own advisors?