Semi-OT: Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread

[76ciology]

https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/lab-made-coronavirus-triggers-debate-34502/amp
This was back in 2015.

Watch on YouTube

This was Bill Gates talking about the pandemic back in 2015

Watch on YouTube

This is a chinese program explaining how the corona virus started from US based from its genealogy tree. And how the june to oct “vaping incidents” that lead to 200 deaths can’t be linked to vaping

[TheRealKaboom]

If the death rate for this thing is under 1%, I think we need to start considering opening things back up. It doesn't appear as deadly as once thought. I don't think you collapse society over this.

The study that predicted 1.5 million to 2.2 million deaths in the US without social distancing assumed that the death rate is 0.9%. The numbers out of New York are very much in line with that assumption.

What about the numbers out of California? 40,000,000+ people in the state and 900 dead. How are those numbers?

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[nymets1]

Haven't read the article here, just the headline. Still, it sounds good.

Read on Twitter

What's the difference between Chadox1 and this control vaccine? Do they think the control vaccine works as good as Chadox1?

[bidde]

If the death rate for this thing is under 1%, I think we need to start considering opening things back up. It doesn't appear as deadly as once thought. I don't think you collapse society over this.

The study that predicted 1.5 million to 2.2 million deaths in the US without social distancing assumed that the death rate is 0.9%. The numbers out of New York are very much in line with that assumption.

What about the numbers out of California? 40,000,000+ people in the state and 900 dead. How are those numbers?

Sent from my SM-G973U using RealGM mobile app

Wrong.

[NBAFan93]

Big news out of New York from Cuomo's presser today. Video here:

Watch on YouTube

They just got the first results of their 3,000-person state antibody test. In the video you can see all the data, including race and age and region breakdowns. Results are preliminary and I think the study is still going on (or results still being worked on). Tests were taken of random (pretty sure they were random) people out at grocery stores and "big box" stores in 19 counties and 40 localities. Seems much better in the screening process than like the Stanford test.

Presentation of the antibody info starts about 35:30 into the above video.

Preliminary results:

- 13.9% of those tested were positive for Covid antibodies. This equates to 2.7 million people in the state having had the virus
- NYC had a positive antibody rate of 21.2%, highest in the state
- Initial IFR = 0.5% (15.5K/2.7M)

The IFR, as Cuomo says, will change (get higher) because it does not include at-home deaths or nursing home deaths, which will be counted later. And there will just be, overall, more fatalities to come in the days ahead, as well. From hospitals.

Let's say that the NY fatality number gets to 25,000. Divide that by 2.7M apparent infections (although this number probably also will go up) and you get around a 0.9% IFR. Still a very serious virus, but better than the current CFR for New York which is about 15.5K/257,217 cases = 6.0%.

The big headline for the study is the massive percent positive for the state and for NYC, as well as this equating to around 2.7M infected in the state. This changes the picture of things dramatically.

Virus probably was spreading around NYC much earlier than people thought. I wonder if they took a better look at some of the flu/pneumonia related deaths from Dec-Feb if they find that they were actually COVID?

[nymets1]

The USA has to figure out how to get Chadox1 to the USA. It appears it's only in the UK right now.

[TunaFish]

There is a discussion about vaccines and the various platforms being used:

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/03/record-setting-speed-vaccine-makers-take-their-first-shots-new-coronavirus

There are a lot of options and just like the Oxford group (from MERS research), the Chinese are also in clinical trials as well with a vaccine. Baby steps but important.

[TheRealKaboom]

The study that predicted 1.5 million to 2.2 million deaths in the US without social distancing assumed that the death rate is 0.9%. The numbers out of New York are very much in line with that assumption.

What about the numbers out of California? 40,000,000+ people in the state and 900 dead. How are those numbers?

Sent from my SM-G973U using RealGM mobile app

Wrong.

Which part of my post is wrong? I'll wait.

Sent from my SM-G973U using RealGM mobile app

[SFour]

Haven't read the article here, just the headline. Still, it sounds good.

Read on Twitter

what sounds good? being the test mule for a rushed vaccine? on top of that it's funded by Bill Gates who has been pushing vaccines very hard in the main stream media. you need to ask yourself who is going to patent and make money off these rushed vaccines.

source
https://www.gatesfoundation.org/Media-Center/Press-Releases/2020/03/COVID-19-Therapeutics-Accelerator-Awards-$20-Million-in-Initial-Grants-to-Fund-Clinical-Trials

March 30, 2020 – Today, the partners in the COVID-19 Therapeutics Accelerator announced grants of $20 million to three institutions—the University of Washington, University of Oxford, and La Jolla Institute for Immunology—to fund clinical trials in order to identify highly potent immunotherapies for the COVID-19 pandemic. These grants mark the first investments to come from the COVID-19 Therapeutics Accelerator, a large-scale initiative launched by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

[TunaFish]

The USA has to figure out how to get Chadox1 to the USA. It appears it's only in the UK right now.

It doesn't work that way and there is also a candidate in China. At this point they have an early vaccine candidate that has been tested in animals at best. Human clinical trials are just beginning and that will take time. By comparison, the United States’s HIV Vaccine Trials Network, went through candidate vaccines and failed many times.

[bidde]

What about the numbers out of California? 40,000,000+ people in the state and 900 dead. How are those numbers?

Sent from my SM-G973U using RealGM mobile app

Wrong.

Which part of my post is wrong? I'll wait.

Sent from my SM-G973U using RealGM mobile app

I was answering your question. Those numbers are wrong.

[NoDopeOnSundays]

Focusing on the CFR potentially being lower isn't what people should be doing, that is exactly why we're in the situation we are now. I remember so many people in here constantly talking about the CFR from China and how we'd never see a fatality rate that high in the US. We also had govt officials using that same line of reasoning, which is probably one of the reasons we had such a lax approach to responding to the virus. Don't tell the idiots in this country that the virus isn't as deadly as thought, even though it's still many multiple times more dangerous than the flu.

By the time this is over we'll have a better idea of what the fatality rate is, now isn't the time to dwell on what it could be, based on incomplete data ie. hypothetically there could be as many as 2.7 million infected NYers and using deaths at this moment which are still increasing.

[DowJones]

The world is just far too interconnected for these things to be a surprise to anyone. I work in a relatively small office, about 300 people in the two buildings that we occupy and just in january and frebruary we had over 200 visitors from outside the US in the office. My boss alone was in southern asia and europe (multiple trips) for about 3 weeks out of the first 9 weeks of the year. Her boss travels more, and so on.

Anyone who didn't see this coming doesn't understand 2020 and how connected business and pleasure are with the rest of the world.

You are asking us to believe that you knew more about the spread of this virus in January and February than Anthony Fauci. Towards the end of February Fauci said the threat of Covid19 to Americans was "minuscule" compared to the flu.

BTW--if you really did see this coming, as you claim, you would have made millions in the stock market. That is the easiest way to tell that nobody saw this coming because if they had then the market would have sold off long before it did.

LOL, I actually did pull out of the market around this time (and let me tell you, i got some KILLER whisky deals when the GBP dropped to ~1.15 was like a Springbank Christmas). Understanding there is risk is not the same as knowing you can beat the market. Sen. Richard Burr was giving speeches on this topic at the end of February and he wasn't speculating as if it were a CHANCE. I never said I knew for a fact it would be this bad or that we'd be seeing this absolute insanity. But all the details and facts were out there to know there was reason for concern.

Just like I can 100% assure you Fauci knew there was reason for concern and was following this topic VERY closely back in January. Just because he chose not to be alarmist when speaking in public is by no means a reasonable argument for you here.

Ok, which one is it. First you said that everyone saw this coming, then you said simply there was reason for concern. Reason for concern is vague and everybody had that regarding the Coronavirus. Heck, Trump restricted travel from China due to concern over the Coronavirus. That is a far cry from "seeing this coming".

There are about 10 exits between "There was reason for concern" and "Everybody should have seen this coming".

[nymets1]

So it appears the top vaccine treatments are:

1.Chadox1
2. Remdesivir
3. Moderna
4. Novavax
5. Inovio
6.VBI
7. Prevnar 13

https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/04/22/will-johnson-johnsons-coronavirus-vaccine-dominate.aspx

That website says there's up to 70 candidates but those are the top 7.

[dhsilv2]

You are asking us to believe that you knew more about the spread of this virus in January and February than Anthony Fauci. Towards the end of February Fauci said the threat of Covid19 to Americans was "minuscule" compared to the flu.

BTW--if you really did see this coming, as you claim, you would have made millions in the stock market. That is the easiest way to tell that nobody saw this coming because if they had then the market would have sold off long before it did.

LOL, I actually did pull out of the market around this time (and let me tell you, i got some KILLER whisky deals when the GBP dropped to ~1.15 was like a Springbank Christmas). Understanding there is risk is not the same as knowing you can beat the market. Sen. Richard Burr was giving speeches on this topic at the end of February and he wasn't speculating as if it were a CHANCE. I never said I knew for a fact it would be this bad or that we'd be seeing this absolute insanity. But all the details and facts were out there to know there was reason for concern.

Just like I can 100% assure you Fauci knew there was reason for concern and was following this topic VERY closely back in January. Just because he chose not to be alarmist when speaking in public is by no means a reasonable argument for you here.

Ok, which one is it. First you said that everyone saw this coming, then you said simply there was reason for concern. Reason for concern is vague and everybody had that regarding the Coronavirus. Heck, Trump restricted travel from China due to concern over the Coronavirus. That is a far cry from "seeing this coming".

There are about 10 exits between "There was reason for concern" and "Everybody should have seen this coming".

Reasonable probability to take actions. Nothing is ever 100%. But the context of this discussion was the inaction of really government's world wide and more directly the US government.

So lets go back to knowing that there have been warnings about a pandemic and the lack of preparedness for years. Not months, years. So as soon as this became a concern which was from the WHO in January, as already cited earlier, that is time to take emergency actions. Again because we already knew we weren't ready and now there's a real threat.

Now to your point, if there was enough risk to restrict travel from China and the rest of the world didn't follow us, then we know it's not going to actually stop it's spread. We know the world is too small a place and that travel between countries is too wide spread.

If this was only a 1% chance, that was FAR more than enough to lead to action from any country knowing they did not have the infrastructure in place to handle an outbreak like this. This kind of thing would never happen in terms of military. If bad meat was being spread, we'd have seen a complete crackdown far earlier. For some reason on infectious disease, it was either dismissed or worse, you forgot the whole world is inter connected.

[TunaFish]

You are asking us to believe that you knew more about the spread of this virus in January and February than Anthony Fauci. Towards the end of February Fauci said the threat of Covid19 to Americans was "minuscule" compared to the flu.

BTW--if you really did see this coming, as you claim, you would have made millions in the stock market. That is the easiest way to tell that nobody saw this coming because if they had then the market would have sold off long before it did.

LOL, I actually did pull out of the market around this time (and let me tell you, i got some KILLER whisky deals when the GBP dropped to ~1.15 was like a Springbank Christmas). Understanding there is risk is not the same as knowing you can beat the market. Sen. Richard Burr was giving speeches on this topic at the end of February and he wasn't speculating as if it were a CHANCE. I never said I knew for a fact it would be this bad or that we'd be seeing this absolute insanity. But all the details and facts were out there to know there was reason for concern.

Just like I can 100% assure you Fauci knew there was reason for concern and was following this topic VERY closely back in January. Just because he chose not to be alarmist when speaking in public is by no means a reasonable argument for you here.

Ok, which one is it. First you said that everyone saw this coming, then you said simply there was reason for concern. Reason for concern is vague and everybody had that regarding the Coronavirus. Heck, Trump restricted travel from China due to concern over the Coronavirus. That is a far cry from "seeing this coming".

You can't see it coming, if you don't look.

There are about 10 exits between "There was reason for concern" and "Everybody should have seen this coming".

You can't see it coming, if you don't look.

[MrGrim]

Big news out of New York from Cuomo's presser today. Video here:

Watch on YouTube

(cut some)

Preliminary results:

- 13.9% of those tested were positive for Covid antibodies. This equates to 2.7 million people in the state having had the virus
- NYC had a positive antibody rate of 21.2%, highest in the state
- Initial IFR = 0.5% (15.5K/2.7M)

The IFR, as Cuomo says, will change (get higher) because it does not include at-home deaths or nursing home deaths, which will be counted later. And there will just be, overall, more fatalities to come in the days ahead, as well. From hospitals.

Let's say that the NY fatality number gets to 25,000. Divide that by 2.7M apparent infections (although this number probably also will go up) and you get around a 0.9% IFR. Still a very serious virus, but better than the current CFR for New York which is about 15.5K/257,217 cases = 6.0%.

The big headline for the study is the massive percent positive for the state and for NYC, as well as this equating to around 2.7M infected in the state. This changes the picture of things dramatically.

Just to add a few things:

The antibodies the NY test detects can take between 3 to 4 weeks to develop post infection; although, the exact time-frame for COVID isn't known yet. Nevertheless, these tests give a snapshot of prevalence at some point in the past. Current prevalence is greater.

Here is a link to the test they seem to be using:

https://coronavirus.health.ny.gov/system/files/documents/2020/04/updated-13102-nysdoh-wadsworth-centers-assay-for-sars-cov-2-igg.pdf

Also, some people can become infected and not develop antibodies if their innate immune system handles the virus before it becomes serious. Such infections also likely confer some form of immunity of unknown efficacy and duration.

[michaelm]

https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/lab-made-coronavirus-triggers-debate-34502/amp
This was back in 2015.

Watch on YouTube

This was Bill Gates talking about the pandemic back in 2015

Watch on YouTube

This is a chinese program explaining how the corona virus started from US based from its genealogy tree. And how the june to oct “vaping incidents” that lead to 200 deaths can’t be linked to vaping

The US origin hypothesis/conspiracy theory is not new and has been around for 4 weeks or more.

Perhaps the USA is just the place where everyone flies to from everywhere and hence they ended up with all the variants. And is it being suggested the virus actually does listen to Donald Trump and he can tell it not to go rogue in the USA until a time of his choosing ?. The vaping pathology has also been well worked out, it is basically a chemical burn due to a constituent of what was being vaped, particularly vaping THC I believe.

[michaelm]

If the death rate for this thing is under 1%, I think we need to start considering opening things back up. It doesn't appear as deadly as once thought. I don't think you collapse society over this.

1% is a huge number.

As is the case except more so with the number of people affected by an America wide and hence worldwide recession/depression.

It seems they are considering in a week or two cautiously partially re-opening Australia, in a fortunate position with only 13 new cases nationwide in the last 24 hours, with maintenance of social distancing, high rates of testing, and aggressive chasing down of clusters. which an infectious diseases physician I once knew personally and who has consistently been right about most things including HIV and Hep C.where he raised alarms rather than the opposite supports. He believes the super aggressive shutdown measures added later in the course of things in Australia had little incremental benefit.

The problem is that the picture in America, a huge country with a large population is diverse, with such large numbers of infected people in places like NYC, and a uniform approach for the whole nation may not be sensible or perhaps even possible.

[nymets1]

Last night's numbers as of 9pm from bing.com/covid

USA- 852,703 confirmed cases(+25,845 increase), Recoveries- 77,210(+2160 increase), Deaths- 47,750(+2453 increase)
New York- 257,216 confirmed cases(+5526 increase)
New Jersey- 95,865 confirmed cases(+3478 increase)
Mass- 42,944 confirmed cases(+1745 increase)
California- 37,343 confirmed cases(+1893 increase)
Penn- 35,684 confirmed cases(+1156 increase)
Illinois- 35,108 confirmed cases(+2049 increase)
Michigan- 33,666 confirmed cases(+999 increase)
Florida- 28,576 confirmed cases(+707 increase)
Louisana- 25,258 confirmed cases(+404 increase)
Connecticut- 22,469 confirmed cases(+2109 increase)
Georgia- 21,102 confirmed cases(+1221 increase)
Texas- 21,069 confirmed cases(+18 increase)
Maryland- 14,775 confirmed cases(+531 increase)
Ohio- 14,117 confirmed cases(+392 increase)
Washington- 12,494 confirmed cases(+334 increase)

Spain- 208,389 confirmed cases(+810 increase), Recoveries- 85,915(+3401 increase)
Germany- 150,648 confirmed cases, Active cases- 53,721, Recoveries- 91,612(+4112 increase)

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

USA- 848,994 confirmed cases, Recoveries- 84,050, Deaths- 47,676
New York- 262,268 confirmed cases(+5713 increase)
New Jersey- 95,865 confirmed cases(+3478 increase)
Mass- 42,944 confirmed cases(+1745 increase)
California- 37,343 confirmed cases(+1700 increase)
Penn- 36,892 confirmed cases(+1599 increase)
Illinois- 35,108 confirmed cases(+2049 increase)
Michigan- 33,966 confirmed cases(+999 increase)
Florida- 28,576 confirmed cases(+707 increase)
Louisana- 25,258 confirmed cases(+404 increase)
Connecticut- 22,469 confirmed cases(+2109 increase)
Georgia- 21,102 confirmed cases(+936 increase)
Texas- 21,458 confirmed cases(+862 increase)
Maryland- 14,775 confirmed cases(+582 increase)
Ohio- 14,117 confirmed cases(+392 increase)
Washington- 12,494 confirmed cases(+212 increase)

1. New Jersey is less than 5000 new cases away from potentially reaching 100,000 confirmed cases on Thursday or Friday
2. Louisana is now 12 straight days of low increase in new confirmed cases each day, almost at 2 full weeks
3. Washington has had a small increase in new confirmed cases over 2 full weeks now
4. Texas now 11 straight days of low increase in new confirmed cases each day, almost at 2 full weeks
5. Michigan, Florida and Georgia are among the top 11 states with the most confirmed cases and Michigan and Florida now have 5 straight days of keeping their new confirmed cases under 1000 for the day.
6. New York is slowly bringing down their increase in new cases each day, They were increasing 7000 to almost 20,000 new cases each day but today they were still over 5000. Once New York gets a day that they only increase around 1000 per day or just under 1000 per day, Than New York would be under control.
7. Bing and worldometers have different numbers as of right now for USA total confirmed cases, USA recoveries and the number of confirmed cases for New York and Penn.
8. Spain had an increase of 810 new cases today, Are they really slowing down?
9. Germany doesn't show an increase of new cases today on either site, Germany has 53,721 active cases out of 150,648 total cases and 91,612 recoveries according to bing. But worldometers shows Germany has 150,648 total cases, 45,933 active cases and 99,400 recoveries. So both sites have the same number of total cases for Germany but their numbers are different for active cases and recoveries.

Today's numbers as of 8:30 pm from bing.com/covid

USA- 887,787 confirmed cases(+30,502 increase), Recoveries- 81,792(+4582 increase), Deaths- 50,177(+2427 increase)
New York- 263,632 confirmed cases(+6416 increase)
New Jersey- 99,989 confirmed cases(+4124 increase)
Mass- 46,023 confirmed cases(+4824 increase)
California- 39,009 confirmed cases(+1723 increase)
Penn- 37,069 confirmed cases(+1385 increase)
Illinois- 36,934 confirmed cases(+1826 increase)
Michigan- 35,291 confirmed cases(+1325 increase)
Florida- 29,648 confirmed cases(+1072 increase)
Louisana- 25,739 confirmed cases(+481 increase)
Connecticut- 23,100 confirmed cases(+631 increase)
Texas- 21,944 confirmed cases(+191 increase)
Georgia- 21,883 confirmed cases(+781 increase)
Maryland- 15,737 confirmed cases(+903 increase)
Ohio- 14,694 confirmed cases(+577 increase)
Indiana- 13,069 confirmed cases(+601 increase)
Washington- 12,494 confirmed cases(+133 increase)
Colorado- 11,262 confirmed cases(+384 increase)
Virginia- 10,988 confirmed cases(+732 increase)

Spain- 213,024 confirmed cases(+1300 increase), Recoveries- 89,250(+3335 increase)
Italy- 189,973 confirmed cases, Active cases- 106,648, Recoveries- 57,776(+6176 increase)
Germany- 152,663 confirmed cases, Active cases- 51,343, Recoveries- 95,817(+4105 increase)

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

USA- 879,430 confirmed cases, Recoveries- 85,624, Deaths- 49,769
New York- 268,581 confirmed cases(+6313 increase)
New Jersey- 99,989 confirmed cases(+4124 increase)
Mass- 46,023 confirmed cases(+3079 increase)
California- 39,009 confirmed cases(+1666 increase)
Penn- 37,053 confirmed cases(+1809 increase)
Illinois- 36,934 confirmed cases(+1826 increase)
Michigan- 35,291 confirmed cases(+1325 increase)
Florida- 29,648 confirmed cases(+1072 increase)
Louisana- 25,739 confirmed cases(+481 increase)
Connecticut- 23,100 confirmed cases(+631 increase)
Texas- 22,393 confirmed cases(+935 increase)
Georgia- 21,883 confirmed cases(+781 increase)
Maryland- 15,737 confirmed cases(+962 increase)
Ohio- 14,694 confirmed cases(+577 increase)
Indiana- 13,069 confirmed cases(+601 increase)

1. New Jersey is about to reach 100,000 confirmed cases on Friday
2. Louisana is now 13 straight days of low increase in new confirmed cases each day, Friday would be 2 full weeks
3. Washington has had a small increase in new confirmed cases over 2 full weeks now
4. Texas now 12 straight days of low increase in new confirmed cases each day, almost at 2 full weeks
5. USA, Spain, Italy and Germany all with their great recovery numbers today