2020 free agent targets and draft picks

[Norm2953]

It will be interesting to see if the league will make any allowances for teams in light of the
losses in revenues. These revenue losses will only escalate if mayors and governors follow
the lead of LA and NYC in prohibiting games in front of large crowds with the NFL and MLB
being more impacted than the NBA which can delay the start of their regular season if they
necessary to January, 2021.

I would think in light of losses in team revenue, teams will be very frugal and opt to do everything
in their power to stay under the tax line. Guys like Whiteside and Ariza will have no place to go for
Portland will opt to replace them with the Moses Brown and Jaylen Hoard's of the world. There will
be a big market for the undrafted free agents who will be the next group of two way players.

[d-train]

It will be interesting to see if the league will make any allowances for teams in light of the
losses in revenues. These revenue losses will only escalate if mayors and governors follow
the lead of LA and NYC in prohibiting games in front of large crowds with the NFL and MLB
being more impacted than the NBA which can delay the start of their regular season if they
necessary to January, 2021.

I would think in light of losses in team revenue, teams will be very frugal and opt to do everything
in their power to stay under the tax line. Guys like Whiteside and Ariza will have no place to go for
Portland will opt to replace them with the Moses Brown and Jaylen Hoard's of the world. There will
be a big market for the undrafted free agents who will be the next group of two way players.

I don't know why the NBA would make significant changes to the cap and tax threshold. The CBA is an agreement between owners and players on how to divide revenues. Why would the NBA agree to give players more money? The tax payments between owners don't go directly to players, however taxes are an allocation of which owners pay the most to players. I don't see owners giving more money to players, and I don't see owners changing their split on which owners pay players more. I do think owners and players will cooperate to maximize the amount of revenues they have to split.

There absolutely will be less money in this free agent market for teams to spend on players, maybe tremendously less. There might not be a market for players like Whiteside and Ariza, add in Melo as well. This won't elevate the status of players like Hoard and Brown. Players like Whiteside, Ariza, and Melo will take less money. This will be a disincentive for teams to pay minimum salaries to develop project players when there are more good veterans available at or near the minimum. Especially, when minimum salaries to veterans are subsidized. The impact of this subsidy could become greater than intended.

[d-train]

Lillard's extension starts 21-22. The coronavirus may very well cost him some money. The first year of his extension is the basis for what he gets every year of his extension. He could be in for a haircut, not that he's hurting.

[d-train]

Read on Twitter

Edit:

The CBA maintains that players lose approximately 1% of salary per canceled game, based on the force majeure provision that covers several catastrophic circumstances, including epidemics and pandemics.

Once there is a cancellation of games, the force majeure is automatically triggered under the language of the CBA.

The force majeure is one more mechanism for the NBA to make the financial formula work on delivering the players the agreed-upon 51% share of the revenues with owners. Already, 10% of players' salaries is held in escrow by the league. The significant decline in Basketball Related Income would result in the projected $380 million of escrow returning to the 30 NBA teams after the season. The amount of projected revenue loss without the application of the force majeure would exceed the current amount of escrow available to teams. As a result, the NBA would need other means to offset the loss.

The 25% withholding also extends into part of 20-21. The players and owners agreement to increase the escrow withholding from 10% to 25%, and into next season as well, is an indication the financial details are being resolved. Noteworthy, is the fact that no games are officially cancelled. The NBA could resolve the issues unilaterally through force majeure and officially cancelling games, but owners and players have agreed on a mutually acceptable resolution.

[cdubbz]

Saddiq Bey is a nice wing pick up for the Blazers. Got Ariza to help mold him to replace him haha.

[DeBlazerRiddem]

Saddiq Bey is a nice wing pick up for the Blazers. Got Ariza to help mold him to replace him haha.

I like his offensive game, I think it should translate pretty well to the NBA. I worry about his defense tho, less than a steal and a block per game is one of those draft red flags for me. Sure he isn't a super athlete, but he he strong and long and has solid physical tools for that end of the court, how can a future NBA player like that just average 1.2 combined block/steals in college? Maybe it was is coach, the defensive scheme, I dunno, but its something that is tripping me up about him.

[Village Idiot]

Saddiq Bey is a nice wing pick up for the Blazers. Got Ariza to help mold him to replace him haha.

I like his offensive game, I think it should translate pretty well to the NBA. I worry about his defense tho, less than a steal and a block per game is one of those draft red flags for me. Sure he isn't a super athlete, but he he strong and long and has solid physical tools for that end of the court, how can a future NBA player like that just average 1.2 combined block/steals in college? Maybe it was is coach, the defensive scheme, I dunno, but its something that is tripping me up about him.

I don't see Bey having any more upside than Little. Nassir is a much better athlete and defender. His jumper was better than advertised and I felt he was aggressive in looking for easy points on cuts and crashing the glass.

To me there are really only two SFs with as much or more potential in this draft then Little.

- Okoro - worse wingspan and athleticism than Little but much better feel for the game. Fantastic motor too
- McDaniels - super weak body but great feel for the game on both sides of the ball

Combo forwards: I think Toppin is neither all that skilled nor athletic. Avidja really isn't all that great either. I don't think his skill level or athleticism are good enough. He has a nice feel for the game but that's it.

I don't see any PF's that I'd rather have than Zach.

[cdubbz]

I don't see Bey having any more upside than Little. Nassir is a much better athlete and defender. His jumper was better than advertised and I felt he was aggressive in looking for easy points on cuts and crashing the glass.

To me there are really only two SFs with as much or more potential in this draft then Little.

- Okoro - worse wingspan and athleticism than Little but much better feel for the game. Fantastic motor too
- McDaniels - super weak body but great feel for the game on both sides of the ball

Combo forwards: I think Toppin is neither all that skilled nor athletic. Avidja really isn't all that great either. I don't think his skill level or athleticism are good enough. He has a nice feel for the game but that's it.

I don't see any PF's that I'd rather have than Zach.

Ariza is only on the roster for one more year right? Wouldn’t be bad to have competition at SF this year to decide the future of that position. Little has potential, but a better 3point shooting wing that can also play defense would be ideal. Even having Little/Bey or Okoro or any of those guys adds depth for the next few years.

Also don’t mind grabbing a backup point guard/combo guard late lottery. Blazers already have guard depth but BPA in a draft like this won’t hurt.

Other guards I like late lottery:

Tyrese Haliburton
RJ Hampton
Josh Green

[DeBlazerRiddem]

Saddiq Bey is a nice wing pick up for the Blazers. Got Ariza to help mold him to replace him haha.

I like his offensive game, I think it should translate pretty well to the NBA. I worry about his defense tho, less than a steal and a block per game is one of those draft red flags for me. Sure he isn't a super athlete, but he he strong and long and has solid physical tools for that end of the court, how can a future NBA player like that just average 1.2 combined block/steals in college? Maybe it was is coach, the defensive scheme, I dunno, but its something that is tripping me up about him.

I don't see Bey having any more upside than Little. Nassir is a much better athlete and defender. His jumper was better than advertised and I felt he was aggressive in looking for easy points on cuts and crashing the glass.

To me there are really only two SFs with as much or more potential in this draft then Little.

- Okoro - worse wingspan and athleticism than Little but much better feel for the game. Fantastic motor too
- McDaniels - super weak body but great feel for the game on both sides of the ball

Combo forwards: I think Toppin is neither all that skilled nor athletic. Avidja really isn't all that great either. I don't think his skill level or athleticism are good enough. He has a nice feel for the game but that's it.

I don't see any PF's that I'd rather have than Zach.

Agree on Okoro and McDaniels as having a higher ceiling. I think Okoro has a higher floor but most mocks seem to have him off the board before our pick. McDaniels has inefficient chucker bust written all over him, but if he puts it together he could be a home run for a late lottery team. Olshey went for a similar type prospect in Simons and since that worked out maybe he makes a similar bet on his training staff to develop McDaniels.

Bey looks to be a better shooter than Little, and a more polished offensive game overall. He actually may be more similar to Hood than to Little as far as the type of player he will become, I see Little developing more into the type of defensive-minded SF/PF that we had in Harkless/Aminu. So I don't think there would be any problem having them compete for SF minutes as they bring different skillsets to the table. But I agree, I think I pass on him at our pick, tho he could end up being a good hit for someone around pick 20 if his defense isn't as bad as I worry it may be.

[DeBlazerRiddem]

This changes by the day but if the draft was today, I would probably pick Aaron Nesmith. Good NBA tools and you cannot fault his shooting percentages, probably the most analytics friendly prospect in the draft (shooting 50/50/80 on decent volume). As long as his foot injury is no long-term concern its hard not seeing this kid stick in the league for a long time. He wont ever be Steph Curry but he could be a Klay Thompson type player. In a draft that isn't particularly strong he not only has a good floor but he also has a good ceiling and is a pretty easy player to project for so he looks like a very safe option. As long as they can defend a bit you just cannot have too many 6'6 shooters IMO.

I would also have a hard time not picking Aleksej Pokusevski. He is just so productive in so many different categories at 18 in a professional league (even if it is the b squad). His 3 point percentages aren't great yet for how many he takes but I think that will come around and become an important part of his game. Its always a little harder to get a read on Euro prospects but it looks like he could be a unicorn big man, a 7 footer with a great feel for the game on both ends. Its possible we should just take him as BPA if he falls to us as he could end up being a top 5 player from this draft, even if he conflicts with Collins and Nurkic at the C spot. He could also bust pretty hard so he could make a GM look either brilliant or a sucker, its hard to say for sure, which is why I am hedging myself with Nesmith at the moment.

Right now my big board for the Blazers looks something like:

1. Hayes
2. Edwards
3. Okongwu
4. Toppin
5. Okoro
6. Haliburton
7. Avdija
8. Vassell
9. Hampton
---- Assuming all those guys are gone by our pick

10. Nesmith
11. Pokusevski
12. McDaniels
13. S. Bey
---- These are the 4 guys I am circling around at the moment

Maxey
Maledon
Bolmaro
Ramsey
T Bey
Green
Lewis Jr
Reed
Williams
---- List of players I am kind of keeping an eye on, don't read too much into the order here.

[HoopsFanAZ]

Deleted.

[DeBlazerRiddem]

If we let Whiteside walk and waive (or trade) Ariza, we could have 11 (or 12.5) million in capspace and 9.7 for an MLE.

Probably too old:
Millsap
Ibaka
Korver
Carter
Williams

Probably too expensive but worth a shot if their market is soft:
Gallinari
Harris
Harrell
Vanvleet
Favors
Grant
Bogdanovic
Fournier

So our list of possible FA signings:
Harkless
Stanley Johnson
Crowder
Marcus or Markieff Morris
Saric
Burks
Noel
Juan or Willy Hernangomez
Kid-Gilchrist
Hollis-Jefferson

Anyone have other names for this list?

[Village Idiot]

I have a feeling LaMarcus Aldridge is going to be a free agent. Of his 2020-21 salary of $24 million only $7 million is guaranteed. The Spurs were a lottery team this season and look to be on the decline so there is no reason to keep LMA, especially if DeRozen opts out of his deal as is rumored. Financially the Spurs end up not having any cap hit for Aldridge as long as we sign him to more than $7 million. Not a whole lot of teams will be eager to spend much on Aldridge so we should be able to get him with the MLE.

[HoopsFanAZ]

Deleted.

[d-train]

Ariza is only on the roster for one more year right? Wouldn’t be bad to have competition at SF this year to decide the future of that position. Little has potential, but a better 3point shooting wing that can also play defense would be ideal. Even having Little/Bey or Okoro or any of those guys adds depth for the next few years.

Ariza might not be back with the Blazers next year. It's Blazers option. Current salary tax threshold projections are worthless and Ariza might be too expensive to keep. We do need a veteran that defends the perimeter. I expect Olshey will explore alternatives.

[d-train]

http://heathoops.com/2020/03/potential-financial-implications-of-the-suspended-nba-season/

I just found this link. Haven't had a chance to fully read it. It looks like a gold mine of good information.

[Village Idiot]

Edited: Mark Stein reported back in October, confirmed by LMA's agent, that the Spurs have guaranteed Aldridge's contract for 2020-21. Looks like no LMA until 2021-22.

Thanks! I should have dug deeper in my research.

[cdubbz]

What are the odds Whiteside signs for cheap? Sign a 1 year deal and become a free agent in 2021 which is a bigger FA class.

Nurk, Whiteside, & Collins is a nice big man rotation. In the small ball era teams still need bigs for rim protection.

[HoopsFanAZ]

Deleted.

[HoopsFanAZ]

Deleted.