Mock Off-Season

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From the trades/transactions board -- it'is interesting -- might stimulate some conversation here:

https://sircharlesincharge.com/2020/04/26/nba-mock-offseason-clippers-win-beal-traded/

What if the NBA regular season was never interrupted? What would the offseason look like as a result?

Sadly, there is a very real possibility the NBA does not return this year. Having said that, there are a website Playoff Predictors provides the chance (based on tier rankings using current games behind in sets of every 5) that allowed me to simulate the standings. This article takes the basic premise of the season having no interruption, the offseason starting on time and the salary cap/luxury tax not being affected by the virus.

In the current format, the Pelicans wouldn’t have a chance to sneak past the Grizzlies, we may not know how the playoff results which could impact the way teams such as Philadelphia and Houston run their offseason and all the various things we’re missing out on as a result. This article assumes the season finished as usual and brings us to the opening night rosters for the following 2020-21 regular season including the draft, every free agent signing, and every trade that I see coming.
The final rosters do not include the two-way contracts as those are so unrealistic to even predict, but the final 15-man rosters are provided.

...I’m using a $117 million salary cap and $142 million luxury tax threshold (shout out to www.shamsports.com/capulator) which as a result of the shortened season is expected to possibly be much lower. I took into account where each team is and where they will be looking to improve based on their direction this offseason.

This isn’t to just make the best team possible for all 30 teams or even what I think each team SHOULD do this offseason. This is more so what I expect to see each team do. I hope you enjoy the remaining 2019-20 regular season, playoffs, 2020 NBA Draft, and 2020 offseason.

The whole thing is pretty well done (independent of whether you agree...). Here's the page on the Wizards:

https://sircharlesincharge.com/2020/04/26/nba-mock-offseason-clippers-win-beal-traded/7/

Thoughts?

[Shoe]

With Covid-19 uncertainty this isn't too realistic. Brooks already has the keys to the building and knows where everything is; he'll navigate the team through whatever this season looks like and they'll amicably part ways after his contract expires (assuming they don't extend him). Beal won't be traded before the season and unlikely to be traded during a shortened season as the Wizards will be in contention for the 8th spot.

[long suffrin' boulez fan]

That would be a dream scenario. Hard to understand why Jazz would give up Mitchell for Beal. He’s better, cheaper and younger,

Nonetheless, D’Antoni, Favors, Mitchell, Wall, Bey and Fournier instead of Brooks, Beal, Bertans and Wagner... yes, I’ll take it.

[nate33]

That would be a dream scenario. Hard to understand why Jazz would give up Mitchell for Beal. He’s better, cheaper and younger,

Nonetheless, D’Antoni, Favors, Mitchell, Wall, Bey and Fournier instead of Brooks, Beal, Bertans and Wagner... yes, I’ll take it.

Mitchell is not better than Beal, but I agree with you that his value may be higher because he is cheaper and younger.

This is a good scenario. The only disappointing part is that we should have traded Bertans for Boston's Memphis pick if the alternative was letting him walk in free agency.

[Ruzious]

Nice job by Charles - though I think it's unlikely Haliburton and Bey will be there when the Wiz pick, and the trade - as said - is a bit optimistic for the Wiz. Favors and Bey improve the Wiz frontcourt defense.

[payitforward]

I don't think that trade is at all optimistic for the Wizards! Here's what I wrote in the thread:

Trade 1:
Utah trades: Donovan Mitchell, Mike Conley, Ed Davis, 2020 UTA 1st (24)
Washington trades: Bradley Beal, Ish Smith, Mo Wagner
Utah gets a star shooting guard in his prime, a nice backup point guard, and a stretchy 4/5. Washington gets a first and a young star....

The Wizards would have zero interest in this trade. Yes, Donovan Mitchell is 3 years younger than Beal. But, so far at least, he isn't nearly as good a player. Nor was he as good in college (&, yes, that tells you something).

Now -- don't get me wrong -- I don't doubt that Mitchell is going to be a very good player long-term. But, would we trade Brad for Mitchell & the #24 pick? Of course not.

& the rest of the trade is ridiculously slanted in Utah's favor:

1. Why ever would we want Mike Conley at this stage of his career? Ish isn't much, but he was better than Conley this year. He costs 1/6 as much. IOW, at his salary, he's reasonable value as an NBA player. Unlike Conley.

2. I have liked Ed Davis over the years, plus his Father played for Washington, so there's a connection. But... come on! Davis earned 268 minutes w/ Utah, & he posted a .424 TS% on 5 shots per 40 minutes. He had the worst season of his career by a lot, & he is about to turn 31. Ed Davis has no trade value whatever. Now... Moe Wagner isn't much either, but at least he's young & cheap & on a rookie contract.

So... if your complex series of moves depends on this one, time to start again.

I'm not sure I understand what people like so much about Mitchell. If you compare him to Beal on their per-40-minute numbers, Beal is better if you leave out scoring -- & he's better as a scorer too!

Plus, because Mitchell will get a max a year after the trade, he's not even cheaper -- this trade has us paying $34m to the corpse of Michael Conley.

Now... Beal wasn't all that good either when he was 23. But, the fact that he got better is not evidence that Mitchell will follow the same path.

[payitforward]

OTOH, it was nice of him to give us Haliburton & Bey in the draft.

Only... wait a minute: I conflated two threads from the trades/transaction board -- both of them involve Beal for Mitchell, etc. The one in the mock draft thread has us acquiring James Johnson from Orlando -- except he doesn't play there!

[Ruzious]

I don't think that trade is at all optimistic for the Wizards! Here's what I wrote in the thread:

Trade 1:
Utah trades: Donovan Mitchell, Mike Conley, Ed Davis, 2020 UTA 1st (24)
Washington trades: Bradley Beal, Ish Smith, Mo Wagner
Utah gets a star shooting guard in his prime, a nice backup point guard, and a stretchy 4/5. Washington gets a first and a young star....

The Wizards would have zero interest in this trade. Yes, Donovan Mitchell is 3 years younger than Beal. But, so far at least, he isn't nearly as good a player. Nor was he as good in college (&, yes, that tells you something).

Now -- don't get me wrong -- I don't doubt that Mitchell is going to be a very good player long-term. But, would we trade Brad for Mitchell & the #24 pick? Of course not.

& the rest of the trade is ridiculously slanted in Utah's favor:

1. Why ever would we want Mike Conley at this stage of his career? Ish isn't much, but he was better than Conley this year. He costs 1/6 as much. IOW, at his salary, he's reasonable value as an NBA player. Unlike Conley.

2. I have liked Ed Davis over the years, plus his Father played for Washington, so there's a connection. But... come on! Davis earned 268 minutes w/ Utah, & he posted a .424 TS% on 5 shots per 40 minutes. He had the worst season of his career by a lot, & he is about to turn 31. Ed Davis has no trade value whatever. Now... Moe Wagner isn't much either, but at least he's young & cheap & on a rookie contract.

So... if your complex series of moves depends on this one, time to start again.

I'm not sure I understand what people like so much about Mitchell. If you compare him to Beal on their per-40-minute numbers, Beal is better if you leave out scoring -- & he's better as a scorer too!

Plus, because Mitchell will get a max a year after the trade, he's not even cheaper -- this trade has us paying $34m to the corpse of Michael Conley.

Now... Beal wasn't all that good either when he was 23. But, the fact that he got better is not evidence that Mitchell will follow the same path.

I know why you like Beal so much better - he's got a better assist/to ratio.

Actually Mitchell's been really good in his 1st 2 and a fraction seasons - including being in the top 20 in the NBA in Defensive Winshares both of his first 2 seasons. I don't how they calculate that, but I'm guessing it has to do with... how well they defend.

[wall_glizzy]

Actually Mitchell's been really good in his 1st 2 and a fraction seasons - including being in the top 20 in the NBA in Defensive Winshares both of his first 2 seasons. I don't how they calculate that, but I'm guessing it has to do with... how well they defend.

Meh, I don't hate DWS but a lot of this can be attributed to the presence of Gobert. DWS varies directly with DRtg (points allowed per 100 possessions), which will be heavily correlated for Gobert and Mitchell since so many of their minutes overlap (I don't know exactly what the Jazz rotations look like, but they each start and play about 34.5 minutes a game).

Looking at different configurations of Jazz lineups, their defensive numbers are as follows:

Gobert on, Mitchell off: 1.046 points allowed per possession (i.e. 104.6 DRtg)
Mitchell on, Gobert off: 1.144 points allowed per possession (i.e. 114.4 DRtg)
Both Mitchell and Gobert on: 1.093 points allowed per possession (i.e. 109.3 DRtg)

So while I think most people would agree that Mitchell's quite good on defense - certainly above-average, possibly better - the waters are a little muddier for DWS in particular given the effective of the significant number of minutes Mitchell spends playing alongside Gobert. This is without getting into the relative impact on team defense that a player can provide from the center position as opposed to guards; taking that into account, DRtg-based metrics will generally be less instructive for perimeter defenders even for teams without a Gobert-like paint presence. Useful (public) defensive metrics for perimeter players are kind of the million-dollar question right now, but the most useful are probably things like STL%, the player's impact on DRB%, the player's effect on the FG% of shots they contest, or, relying more on the eye test, the ability of the player to maintain their numbers in each of these areas when switching up or down a position on defense.

[payitforward]

I haven't watched Mitchell enough to comment on his defense. But, he's a volume scorer because he's a volume shooter: his TS% is very slightly above average. & he's below average on the rest of his stats.

Now, Brad took some years to become good. But... he had an outstanding season when he was 23, far better than Mitchell has been.

I do think he'll turn out to be an excellent player, but I can't imagine making the trades I referenced.

[DCZards]

The thing I like about Mitchell is that he has the ability (and moxie) to take over games offensively when the game is on the line. There's something to be said for that. Oftentimes it's not how much you score but when you score.

No, I'm not suggesting he's better than Beal or that the Zards should trade BB for Mitchell.