Coronavirus/COVID-19, Thread 2

[Fencer reregistered]

People I know who are forced to send their parents to nursing homes don't usually do it until they absolutely have to, and their parents don't live long.

It's gone both ways in my family. Each of my grandmothers lived something like 7 years in nursing homes, depending on how one measures. My father in law lasted a couple of months. My mother lasted 7 or so. My mother in law was inbetween.

[claycarver]

People I know who are forced to send their parents to nursing homes don't usually do it until they absolutely have to, and their parents don't live long.

It's gone both ways in my family. Each of my grandmothers lived something like 7 years in nursing homes, depending on how one measures. My father in law lasted a couple of months. My mother lasted 7 or so. My mother in law was inbetween.

Yeah, I used to volunteer at a nursing home. The long term residents were the ones participating in community activities so I got to know them the best. Those are the ones that I'm thinking about. If possible, we need to get them visitation time with their friends, kids, and grandkids soon.

BTW, what got me thinking about it was the WaPo article that showed the sharp spike in overall weekly deaths at the early stages but it also captured a dramatic reduction in weekly deaths a few weeks later...that reduction didn't correspond with the increase in coronavirus death toll. That looked to me like some deaths were kind of pushed forward a few weeks, reducing some overall deaths in future weeks.

This makes sense since the virus is most deadly among the aged and sick, but how extensive is this effect?

[Parliament10]

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[sam_I_am]

Antibody testing in NYC showed 1/5 tested were positive for coronavirus. If one assumes testing is reasonably accurate and that population tested was representative (2 huge assumptions) then the following is likely to be true:

20% of NYC population of 8million = 1,700,000
17,000 deaths means 1% mortality so far (probably will double based on Italy and Spain after peak and 1-2 wk delay from test to death)

This is remarkably similar to Diamond Princess where passengers were stuck together in quarantine for a month.

3700 passengers
approx 725 tested positive (19%)
Most recent update is 14 deaths (1.9%)

I had always assumed Diamond Princess passengers were older and less healthy than general population so these similarities are disturbing to me.

What remains to be seen is what happens to the 80% who didn’t catch the virus in 1 month on the boat or after 1 month of raging outbreak in NYC. Will they never catch it or will they have their turn over the next 11 months of this year? For those who still insist this virus is no worse than the flu, consider that the flu has killed 170 people per month in NYC over past 5 years opposed to 17,000 in just 1 month from Covid-19.

Did the lockdown prevent this type of outbreak in Florida and Texas who responded weeks sooner than N.Y., NJ and MA relative to their first 100 cases or did it simply slow it down and delay the inevitable? Or are there other factors at play such as weather, population density and viral load? With more testing available it is my hope that aggressive measures like those seen in S. Korea will allow Florida, Georgia and Texas to reopen their businesses safely.....but I am not confident they are up to that task yet. If outbreak can be managed then there is hope that better treatments and a vaccine will arrive before maximum damage is done.

[Parliament10]

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That's like a 25% reduction in the recovery time.

[The_Ghost_of_JB]

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/30/nba-team-execs-agents-are-calling-on-the-league-to-cancel-season.html

Even if the NBA was green lighted to open June 1st just say we are talking a month of training camps, two months of playoffs which means the playoffs will be over around the end August. Since the players don't want to shift the season we are talking training camp about a month later. Does not hurt the teams that have been sitting for 6 month but hurts the teams that have a decent playoff run.

And no I don't want some half assed playoffs that includes empty arenas and single elimination games.

Plus I would assume this would go right to the playoffs which means the Celtics vs the sixers in round 1 which couldn't possibly be a worse match up for this team.

[jmr07019]

Sign me up for basketball in any form. I could care less about fans in the stands or the production value of the broadcast. Just give us something, anything to distract us. Young healthy individuals are at very low risk. Wealthy individuals are at low risk. Put 2+2 together. This could happen if they want it to. The article states is clearly. The NBA owners don't want it because they won't be making enough money.

[jmr07019]

I think we should be slowly re-opening here in MA (where I can see the data on cases / hospitalizations / deaths). I would leave Boston locked down. In fact I'm stunned we still have public transport running. That seems to be one thing that needs to be shutdown more than anything else and yet it isn't. In central and western MA you can open up certain businesses. Car dealerships, barbershops / salons, department stores, etc. You will need to make adjustments. Instead of waiting inside at the barbershop wait in your car. Limit number of people in the building at once. Etc. If liquor stores can remain open why do these other businesses have to close? What makes booze so essential? How about lottery tickets? Why are convenience stores more essential than a clothing store? The only logical answer is alcohol and lottery sales provide the state with a lot of money.

The elderly (70+) need to remain on lockdown. People with pre existing conditions should remain on lockdown. The 50-70 crowd is going to need to make a decision for themselves. 50 and younger crowd is in pretty good shape based on the data MA publishes. You still need to wear a mask and maintain social distance but staying inside isn't accomplishing anything at this point. Our hospitals are not in danger of being over run. They HOPE a vaccine is available in 12 months. What if it takes 4 years? What if we can't figure out a vaccine?

[Parliament10]

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/30/nba-team-execs-agents-are-calling-on-the-league-to-cancel-season.html

Even if the NBA was green lighted to open June 1st just say we are talking a month of training camps, two months of playoffs which means the playoffs will be over around the end August. Since the players don't want to shift the season we are talking training camp about a month later. Does not hurt the teams that have been sitting for 6 month but hurts the teams that have a decent playoff run.

And no I don't want some half assed playoffs that includes empty arenas and single elimination games.

Plus I would assume this would go right to the playoffs which means the Celtics vs the sixers in round 1 which couldn't possibly be a worse match up for this team.

NBA has been talking about permanently moving the Regular Season to December-June.
They'll likely get a trial-run for the 2020-21 Season.

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[jmr07019]

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Always having either basketball or football would be amazing Sign me up

[Parliament10]

I think we should be slowly re-opening here in MA (where I can see the data on cases / hospitalizations / deaths). I would leave Boston locked down. In fact I'm stunned we still have public transport running. That seems to be one thing that needs to be shutdown more than anything else and yet it isn't. In central and western MA you can open up certain businesses. Car dealerships, barbershops / salons, department stores, etc. You will need to make adjustments. Instead of waiting inside at the barbershop wait in your car. Limit number of people in the building at once. Etc. If liquor stores can remain open why do these other businesses have to close? What makes booze so essential? How about lottery tickets? Why are convenience stores more essential than a clothing store? The only logical answer is alcohol and lottery sales provide the state with a lot of money.

The elderly (70+) need to remain on lockdown. People with pre existing conditions should remain on lockdown. The 50-70 crowd is going to need to make a decision for themselves. 50 and younger crowd is in pretty good shape based on the data MA publishes. You still need to wear a mask and maintain social distance but staying inside isn't accomplishing anything at this point. Our hospitals are not in danger of being over run. They HOPE a vaccine is available in 12 months. What if it takes 4 years? What if we can't figure out a vaccine?

Nobody is on the Public Transportation these days. -- I risked it, and went to see 2 of my Grands on Easter.
There were little more than a handful of people, at any given time, on a 14-stop train ride.

Everyone is keeping their distance; also, wearing masks and gloves.
The trains and buses have even cordoned off contact with the operators.

It's by far and large, basically Essential Personnel (like Medical Staff) traveling.

[jmr07019]

I think we should be slowly re-opening here in MA (where I can see the data on cases / hospitalizations / deaths). I would leave Boston locked down. In fact I'm stunned we still have public transport running. That seems to be one thing that needs to be shutdown more than anything else and yet it isn't. In central and western MA you can open up certain businesses. Car dealerships, barbershops / salons, department stores, etc. You will need to make adjustments. Instead of waiting inside at the barbershop wait in your car. Limit number of people in the building at once. Etc. If liquor stores can remain open why do these other businesses have to close? What makes booze so essential? How about lottery tickets? Why are convenience stores more essential than a clothing store? The only logical answer is alcohol and lottery sales provide the state with a lot of money.

The elderly (70+) need to remain on lockdown. People with pre existing conditions should remain on lockdown. The 50-70 crowd is going to need to make a decision for themselves. 50 and younger crowd is in pretty good shape based on the data MA publishes. You still need to wear a mask and maintain social distance but staying inside isn't accomplishing anything at this point. Our hospitals are not in danger of being over run. They HOPE a vaccine is available in 12 months. What if it takes 4 years? What if we can't figure out a vaccine?

Nobody is on the Public Transportation these days. -- I risked it, and went to see 2 of my Grands on Easter.
There were little more than a handful of people, at any given time, on a 14-stop train ride.

Everyone is keeping their distance; also, wearing masks and gloves.
The trains and buses have even cordoned off contact with the operators.

It's by far and large, basically Essential Personnel (like Medical Staff) traveling.

I'm glad to hear that. It seems like such an easy place to transfer the disease. Those drivers (along with all the first responders, medical personnel, grocery store employees, etc.) are heroes and deserve hazard pay.

[Bad-Thoma]

I'm sure by now most have seen the 2 doctors from Cali who have claimed that things should be reopened due to their extrapolation of the statistics, who of course appeared on Fox feeding misinformation to the public. Here is a video that debunks their methodology and if you watch it on Youtube rather than the link it has a couple of good source material links below it.

Watch on YouTube

[sam_I_am]

I'm sure by now most have seen the 2 doctors from Cali who have claimed that things should be reopened due to their extrapolation of the statistics, who of course appeared on Fox feeding misinformation to the public. Here is a video that debunks their methodology and if you watch it on Youtube rather than the link it has a couple of good source material links below it.

Watch on YouTube

Their blatant disregard for public health in order to serve their own self interest is shameful. There is plenty of room for debate as to whether to keep businesses shut down but there is no need to massage the data and deliberately mislead to make a point.

[jmr07019]

Extrapolating the 12% is dumb but so is using South Korea's data for the US given all the different circumstances. Seems like she had her own agenda to push. Couldn't make it through that video. Too much snark. Just say what you gotta say and get on with it. Would be nice if I could have seen the original video but youtube, censorship and all that.

[C-West]

Once again, from the guy who actually thought he invented the phrase “Taco Tuesday,” it’s all about him . . .

https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/29118635/lebron-james-retorts-shutdown-chatter-to-finish-our-season

[SuperDeluxe]

Once again, from the guy who actually thought he invented the phrase “Taco Tuesday,” it’s all about him . . .

https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/29118635/lebron-james-retorts-shutdown-chatter-to-finish-our-season

Poor little creature, his last window may be closing.

[C-West]

Once again, from the guy who actually thought he invented the phrase “Taco Tuesday,” it’s all about him . . .

https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/29118635/lebron-james-retorts-shutdown-chatter-to-finish-our-season

Poor little creature, his last window may be closing.

He’s always been a bit small and tone-deaf. I did grow to respect him a great deal, to be honest. His play and work with communities dictate that. But then in the last year or so with his atrocious reaction to the China situation and his “Taco Tuesday” thing . . . True colors. It is really all about him.

Note: I may be in the minority, but “Taco Tuesday” angers and baffles me so much. What a window to someone’s mind. “I made a YouTube video where I yell that to my friends . . . It must be my phrase. Let’s get a trademark!” Dude lives in LA, where even Chinese and Persian restaurants have taco Tuesday.

[Fencer reregistered]

I don't know exactly how many people need to come into close proximity for a basketball team to train. Players, coaches, trainers, chefs, various kinds of grunts. I'd guess it's 50-100 per team. If ANY of those people are infected, should the team be allowed to participate in games? If the answer is "no", then we're not getting a restart any time soon.

[jmr07019]

I don't know exactly how many people need to come into close proximity for a basketball team to train. Players, coaches, trainers, chefs, various kinds of grunts. I'd guess it's 50-100 per team. If ANY of those people are infected, should the team be allowed to participate in games? If the answer is "no", then we're not getting a restart any time soon.

If the season resumes teams would have to accept that it isn't business as usual. Every star isn't going to be able to bring his own personal trainer, nutritionist, chef, etc. You might be looking at 1 chef for multiple teams. There's no reason a team needs 100 people to play a game. You need your 15 man roster, your coaches, and training staff. The training staff doesn't need to be more than 10 people. Owner and GM get to attend to. I know they're pampered millionaires but come onnnn. The rest of the country / world is sacrificing you're telling me NBA players can't?