mtcan wrote:
Would I implement measures to keep 5000 more people from getting the virus and keep 1400 more people from dying...absolutely. Of those 1400 lives saved...it could be you or someone you know that could otherwise not be here right now.
If the measures saved 1,400 lives in Ontario, I don't think many people would argue, there are just too many variables to know if that is the case. We probably won't know which was the better course of action until at least a couple years down the line (if ever).
Just looking at the size of the two areas, Ontario has 14.5 Million people spread over 1 million square kms. Sweden has 10.2 Million people within 450 thousand square kms.
Regardless of the different social distancing policies, or which contagious virus we are talking about, you would expect the area with a much higher population density to have more cases.
There's also the fact Ontario and Canada's whole idea behind flattening the curve is that the number of deaths and cases will be spread out over a longer time. Just because sweden has a higher number of deaths now, doesn't mean they will by the end of it.
After that, there is the "collateral damage" of the decisions. The release the other day from UHN projects that dozens of people that had their heart surgeries delayed could die within the next month or so alone that otherwise wouldn't have (I forget their exact timeframe offhand). Does it make sense that any cancer or heart surgeries were delayed when ICUs or hospitals in general haven't been near capacity at any point? How many extra deaths will that cause by the end?
How many people are going to die directly or indirectly from losing their jobs and businesses? How many people that were already struggling with mental health are going to be pushed over the edge by isolation and lack of any possible routine?
None of these are easy decisions to make, and there are no answers right now. My only point is you can't look at one snap shot and say Sweden has a few hundred more deaths right now, so they were wrong.
I do think what is happening in Sweden suggests that the Canadian/Ontario government projections of hundreds of thousands of deaths and millions of cases if we didn't shut everything down were way off base. Don't get me wrong, I'm not someone who thinks do nothing was the best answer----I just think there's a decent chance the best course of action was something similar to Sweden's, shut down major events, put some social distancing rules in place (limit number of people in stores, parks, etc.), isolate the high risk portion of the population, but don't shut everything down.
What is happening there also suggests to me that if we start methodically opening up today, it isn't going to result in a flood of tens of thousands of cases cases and thousands of deaths like some are saying.
