OT: COVID-19 thread #2

[Ccwatercraft]

Side note: We opened up our beaches officially so that was todays adventure, perfect day had to hit 3 spots to find a parking spot.

shocking number of boats on the water as well, sailboats, powerboats, Jetskis, lots of grins on faces today.

So glad I'm not in Michigan.

I’m glad my governor cares about keeping people alive.

We know Florida had multiple Super Spreader events when they initially failed to close their beaches [1]. Those cases fanned all over the country, killing Americans from coast to coast. But at least beaches are open!!! Woohooo!!!

[1] https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/11/us/florida-spring-break-coronavirus.html

Social distancing is absolutely not a problem on our beaches right now 6ft, 10ft. 30ft, with hotels closed and no tourists it was wide open. 10x safter than going to the grocery store or hardware store, maybe more considering that we are outside and in bright sun.

The first thing that popped into my mind when we took a walk down the shore was that we could have done this earlier, but the population was patient and well behaved knowing that May 1 was our target date and in general we all agreed that the circumstances and timeline made sense.

I guess if you like we can scroll back 80 pages and just copy paste some discussions about spring break, mardi gras, etc and dozens of other examples but I dont see the point.

[Dresden]

Pompeo says 'enormous evidence' virus came from Wuhan lab

US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said Sunday that there was "enormous evidence" that the coronavirus pandemic originated in a laboratory in Wuhan, China.

"There is enormous evidence that this is where it began," he said on ABC's "This Week."

But while highly critical of China's handling of the matter, Pompeo declined to say whether he thought the virus had been intentionally released.

President Donald Trump has been increasingly critical of China's role in the pandemic, which has infected nearly 3.5 million people and killed more than 240,000 around the world.

He has insisted that Beijing recklessly concealed important information about the outbreak and demanded that Beijing be held "accountable."

News reports say Trump has tasked US spies to find out more about the origins of the virus, at first blamed on a Wuhan market selling exotic animals like bats, but now thought possibly to be from a virus research laboratory nearby.

Pompeo, a former director of the Central Intelligence Agency, told ABC that he agreed with a statement Thursday from the US intelligence community in which it concurred "with the wide scientific consensus that the COVID-19 virus was not man-made or genetically modified."

But he went further than Trump, in citing "significant" and "enormous" evidence that the virus originated in a Wuhan laboratory.

"I think the whole world can see now, remember, China has a history of infecting the world and running substandard laboratories," Pompeo said.

He said early Chinese efforts to downplay the coronavirus amounted to "a classic Communist disinformation effort. That created enormous risk."

"President Trump is very clear: we'll hold those responsible accountable."

https://www.yahoo.com/news/pompeo-says-enormous-evidence-virus-came-wuhan-lab-143808685.html

[Dresden]

It looks like they are going to play this out to the end. If you make a claim that bold, you better be able to back it up. And the evidence better be stronger than the evidence about Saddam and WMD's. This could turn out to be true- even some epidemiologists have said as much. But others strongly disagree, based on the hard science of what we know so far about the genetic makeup of the virus, and the much greater likelihood that the critical mutations and initial leap to humans occurred outside a lab setting. But we'll see. The close proximity of this lab to the epicenter of the outbreak certain gives it some plausibility. But it also makes it easy to spread lies about it, too. In time, the truth will likely come out.

In either case, it's criminal to suggest China somehow unleashed this one the world on purpose. Or that they should be help responsible financially. Were we ever made to pay for the lasting damage and all the deaths, disease, and permanent disabilities we caused in Iraq by our reckless and illegal invasion there?

[TheEndIsNigh]

It looks like they are going to play this out to the end. If you make a claim that bold, you better be able to back it up. And the evidence better be stronger than the evidence about Saddam and WMD's. This could turn out to be true- even some epidemiologists have said as much. But others strongly disagree, based on the hard science of what we know so far about the genetic makeup of the virus, and the much greater likelihood that the critical mutations and initial leap to humans occurred outside a lab setting. But we'll see. The close proximity of this lab to the epicenter of the outbreak certain gives it some plausibility. But it also makes it easy to spread lies about it, too. In time, the truth will likely come out.

In either case, it's criminal to suggest China somehow unleashed this one the world on purpose. Or that they should be help responsible financially. Were we ever made to pay for the lasting damage and all the deaths, disease, and permanent disabilities we caused in Iraq by our reckless and illegal invasion there?

I find the fact that our government is run by a bunch of conspiracy theorists terrifying. It's very Putin-esque.

[DuckIII]

I’ll be very interested to see what the independent scientific consensus is on this. Because I trust the Trump administration on this issue even less than I trust China. And I don’t trust China at all.

Basically, without a scientifically validated determination or credible documentation, it will be a war of propaganda between two of the least credible governments on Earth.

[Nikola]

It looks like they are going to play this out to the end. If you make a claim that bold, you better be able to back it up. And the evidence better be stronger than the evidence about Saddam and WMD's. This could turn out to be true- even some epidemiologists have said as much. But others strongly disagree, based on the hard science of what we know so far about the genetic makeup of the virus, and the much greater likelihood that the critical mutations and initial leap to humans occurred outside a lab setting. But we'll see. The close proximity of this lab to the epicenter of the outbreak certain gives it some plausibility. But it also makes it easy to spread lies about it, too. In time, the truth will likely come out.

In either case, it's criminal to suggest China somehow unleashed this one the world on purpose. Or that they should be help responsible financially. Were we ever made to pay for the lasting damage and all the deaths, disease, and permanent disabilities we caused in Iraq by our reckless and illegal invasion there?

I find the fact that our government is run by a bunch of conspiracy theorists terrifying. It's very Putin-esque.

I'm curious how exactly anyone in government that is responsible for national security would not be a conspiracy theorist. National security and business require conspiracy. If you do not entertain theories when there is gaps in the information you are not much of a critical thinker. And if our government didn't game plan every conspiracy theory they can come up with that would be awfully irresponsible.

[Chi town]

I’ll be very interested to see what the independent scientific consensus is on this. Because I trust the Trump administration on this issue even less than I trust China. And I don’t trust China at all.

Basically, without a scientifically validated determination or credible documentation, it will be a war of propaganda between two of the least credible governments on Earth.

I think credibility will come from mutual agreement from many world governments believing the same thing.

What I completely believe is how China covered it up and that cost everyone... for a very long time.

[Dresden]

I’ll be very interested to see what the independent scientific consensus is on this. Because I trust the Trump administration on this issue even less than I trust China. And I don’t trust China at all.

Basically, without a scientifically validated determination or credible documentation, it will be a war of propaganda between two of the least credible governments on Earth.

From my understanding, what is needed are samples of the virus that the lab was working on, to know how closely it corresponds to the virus sequenced from the first cases that came from Wuhan. Whether or not the Chinese govt. will ever turn over those samples is questionable at this point. If they can also trace those first cases to viruses they can locate in the wild- from bats or pangolins, and the genetic sequences match, that will be pretty strong proof it came from the wild and not from the lab. Of course, those wild strains could have been under study at the labs, too. But right now, all the genetic evidence available points to a source outside of a lab.

I do hope the Trump admin either voluntarily turns over their evidence to the WHO, or is forced to reveal it to congress, so we can see if they are lying or not. If they are lying about this, and their "proof" turns out to bogus, like it was about Saddam's WMD, that should be a major story, and China would have every right to be very upset about it.

[TheEndIsNigh]

It looks like they are going to play this out to the end. If you make a claim that bold, you better be able to back it up. And the evidence better be stronger than the evidence about Saddam and WMD's. This could turn out to be true- even some epidemiologists have said as much. But others strongly disagree, based on the hard science of what we know so far about the genetic makeup of the virus, and the much greater likelihood that the critical mutations and initial leap to humans occurred outside a lab setting. But we'll see. The close proximity of this lab to the epicenter of the outbreak certain gives it some plausibility. But it also makes it easy to spread lies about it, too. In time, the truth will likely come out.

In either case, it's criminal to suggest China somehow unleashed this one the world on purpose. Or that they should be help responsible financially. Were we ever made to pay for the lasting damage and all the deaths, disease, and permanent disabilities we caused in Iraq by our reckless and illegal invasion there?

I find the fact that our government is run by a bunch of conspiracy theorists terrifying. It's very Putin-esque.

I'm curious how exactly anyone in government that is responsible for national security would not be a conspiracy theorist. National security and business require conspiracy. If you do not entertain theories when there is gaps in the information you are not much of a critical thinker. And if our government didn't game plan every conspiracy theory they can come up with that would be awfully irresponsible.

There is an enormous difference between entertaining theories when there are gaps in the information and claiming garbage like Ukraine has a DNC server. Our executive branch is currently run by a group whom pushes nonsense conspiracies such as that.

[molepharmer]

I’ll be very interested to see what the independent scientific consensus is on this. Because I trust the Trump administration on this issue even less than I trust China. And I don’t trust China at all.

Basically, without a scientifically validated determination or credible documentation, it will be a war of propaganda between two of the least credible governments on Earth.

From my understanding, what is needed are samples of the virus that the lab was working on, to know how closely it corresponds to the virus sequenced from the first cases that came from Wuhan. Whether or not the Chinese govt. will ever turn over those samples is questionable at this point. If they can also trace those first cases to viruses they can locate in the wild- from bats or pangolins, and the genetic sequences match, that will be pretty strong proof it came from the wild and not from the lab. Of course, those wild strains could have been under study at the labs, too. But right now, all the genetic evidence available points to a source outside of a lab.

I do hope the Trump admin either voluntarily turns over their evidence to the WHO, or is forced to reveal it to congress, so we can see if they are lying or not. If they are lying about this, and their "proof" turns out to bogus, like it was about Saddam's WMD, that should be a major story, and China would have every right to be very upset about it.

from a week old Science article https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/04/nih-s-axing-bat-coronavirus-grant-horrible-precedent-and-might-break-rules-critics-say

"...The virologist, Shi Zhengli, is based at the Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV), located in the city where researchers first identified SARS-CoV-2.....Shi and colleagues have collected some 15,000 biological samples in the field from bats, some of which harbor coronaviruses...."

Not sure what US spies could have discovered in the last week to do a 180 degree turn on their initial statement “concurs with the wide scientific consensus that the COVID-19 virus was not manmade or genetically modified.” I doubt the spies are coronavirus experts or proficient in BSL-3/4 lab safety procedures.

[Dresden]

I don't think there is a debate anymore about whether the virus was manmade or modified- just whether or not it escaped from the lab.

[Dresden]

Argument against the using the Swedish model here- in part because Americans are far less healthy than the Swedes:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/04/opinion/coronavirus-sweden-herd-immunity.html?action=click&module=Opinion&pgtype=Homepage

[jmajew]

Do I think the government went about how to help the economy in the proper method? No I do not, and don't feel like typing a 10,000 word dissertation on what should have happened. .

I understand your point about banks (and the economy) potentially have more to lose if a company like yours goes out of business than a corner store market. And I also think the govt. should have created programs to help any business that needed it to stay solvent. But the purpose of the PPP was specifically to help small businesses, and most importantly, the banks should not have been the ones deciding whose application gets processed first. They should not have been given that discretion. If the govt. wanted to say "look we have to help this kind of business first because it is bigger, and more important to the economy, and creates more jobs" then fine, that would be a different program. But this particular initiative was geared towards small businesses who don't have access to other lines of credit. The self interest of the banking industry should not have played a part in who gets the loan.

For businesses whose main expense is labor, such as mine and many others in the contracting field, we will be able to use up almost all the loan amount on labor. That extra 20% that is designated towards rent, utilities, and mortgage interest can also be applied towards labor. So many of us will just gear up a bit more in the coming two months (if we have the work). And if we have to give back 20%, no problem. I think the ones that will be hurt are the businesses that have big rents, such as restaurants in big cities.

The businesses that get into trouble, as you point out, are the ones that will "recklessly" spend that amount that won't be forgiven in other ways, and I'm sure many of them will get pinched down the road when that money has to be repaid.

I'm going to give a little bit of my dissertation here. Government should have done the following things. 1) Stop all rent/mortgage payments personal and business for the entire time the country is shut down. 2) Pay all utilities for every house and business in the country. 3) Guarantee every employee in the country 60% of their pay during this crisis. 4) Cover all health insurance costs during the crisis.

There would be more detail that needs to go into this but this is the basics You do it this way because the government would only have had to directly pay mainly payroll, utility, and health insurance companies. This would have been much fewer companies and ones better equipped to do this than going to banks and asking them to distribute to every small business that files Basically you have the payroll companies continue to pay everyone at 60% even if terminated. The government would just pay them. Same with utilities and healthcare.

If a company is still working and they make extra money because of it is just becomes taxable income. I know it isn't ideal, but it would have been the best way to keep businesses afloat. The nail salon and bar wouldn't have any bills during this time, a restaurant would only have to pay food costs and payroll for those still working, etc.

The PPP is what they went with. I think it created a more complex issue than they needed to create. But I think they did it this way to make it seem like thy were directly helping small business more than big business. They didn't want to be seen helping United Healthcare or ComEd...it was an optics decision.

[Dresden]

New estimate for death toll in the US: 135,000. That takes into account the easing of restrictions. I would hope we could prevent it from going that high, but I do think that with states re-opening their economies, people are going to start behaving as if it's back to normal.

[dice]

I don't think there is a debate anymore about whether the virus was manmade or modified- just whether or not it escaped from the lab.

yeah, even pompeo said yesterday that he doesn't doubt the scientific consensus that COVID-19 was a natural occurrence. the administration just wants to push the narrative that it "escaped" from a lab so that they can blame the chinese government. which is somewhat ironic given that it would be much more valid to blame the chinese government for refusing to shut down wildlife wet labs than to blame them for a lab worker accidentally getting infected in an effort to research coronaviruses...partly funded by trump's NIH

[dice]

New estimate for death toll in the US: 135,000. That takes into account the easing of restrictions. I would hope we could prevent it from going that high, but I do think that with states re-opening their economies, people are going to start behaving as if it's back to normal.

also more people inevitably outside due to warmer weather. how much the increased risk due to that is countered by the beneficial weather effects remains to be seen. more context:

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/05/04/cdc-daily-deaths-coronavirus-234377

[dice]

iraq war vet and front liner in NYC says "this is a lot harder":

https://www.yahoo.com/news/er-doctor-infuriating-walk-central-084824373.html

[dice]

states that have eased restrictions to some degree while in-state cases on the rise:

CO IN IA KS MN NE TN NC AZ IL NM WI

minnesota and wisconsin eased up a couple of weeks ago and have already seen a spike in new cases

states that have eased while cases in DECLINE, none of which has yet seen a resultant uptick:

AK CO MS MT SD MI HI VT WA

[musiqsoulchild]

I’ll be very interested to see what the independent scientific consensus is on this. Because I trust the Trump administration on this issue even less than I trust China. And I don’t trust China at all.

Basically, without a scientifically validated determination or credible documentation, it will be a war of propaganda between two of the least credible governments on Earth.

Two of the least credible and the most powerful...that's a bad combo.

Power with an absolute lack of a moral compass is a terrifying concoction

[Nikola]

I don't think there is a debate anymore about whether the virus was manmade or modified- just whether or not it escaped from the lab.

Just like there was no debate about it being from the lab. I don't know what constitutes manmade. But certainly they were doing selective breeding for lack of a viral term.