2020 Offseason Speculation, free agency, summer trades (keep draft prospect talk in draft thread)

[ImNotMcDiSwear]

Why are we talking about trading Rubio? He was our best player this season.

[Ghost of Kleine]

Why are we talking about trading Rubio? He was our best player this season.

I think it was only mentioned as a proposal off of what someone may have heard from the John Hollinger/ Gina Mizell discussion that was shared yesterday. But aside from the obligatory exploratory discussions as to his potential trade value, IF the situation arose, For my part, I'm in agreement that we should keep him. He does need to recondition and improve upon his shot mechanics if at all possible, But he absolutely has been great for us as a facilitator and as a leader to our young team too. Also, as I mentioned above, It's really hard to find fair value I think given his age, contract amount, and shooting inconsistencies.

So it'd be best to let him stay with our team to finish out his contract, Whilst developing a skilled young replacement guard behind him either through the draft or in a trade or in free agency.

[Wilber85]

Why are we talking about trading Rubio? He was our best player this season.

I like Rubio. Dude made our offense look fluid. I don't think people realize and are just looking at our record

Without Ayton being suspended those 25 games. We probably would be racing for 8th seed. Less injuries since we would have had depth, and didn't have to depend on Baynes , Kaminsky for 30 + Minutes (Or whatever they were playing).

Big needs in offseason

-Back Up PG ... potential draft?
-PF - Do we ride with Saric (He showed flashes and didn't get much time next to ayton to flow with him) or do we trade , sign, etc.

[Ghost of Kleine]

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Discussion on Kelly Oubres' future in Phoenix?
- Plans for power forward.
- what to make of Ty Jerome.
- A great many more things discussed as well.

[bwgood77]

Why are we talking about trading Rubio? He was our best player this season.

I think it was only mentioned as a proposal off of what someone may have heard from the John Hollinger/ Gina Mizell discussion that was shared yesterday. But aside from the obligatory exploratory discussions as to his potential trade value, IF the situation arose, For my part, I'm in agreement that we should keep him. He does need to recondition and improve upon his shot mechanics if at all possible, But he absolutely has been great for us as a facilitator and as a leader to our young team too. Also, as I mentioned above, It's really hard to find fair value I think given his age, contract amount, and shooting inconsistencies.

So it'd be best to let him stay with our team to finish out his contract, Whilst developing a skilled young replacement guard behind him either through the draft or in a trade or in free agency.

And it was in the specific scenario in that piece that we would go hard after Fred VanVleet. I think there is very little chance Toronto would even entertain letting him go, regardless of cost though.

And then ignoring the FVV part, Rubio was very important for our team and made an enormous impact while on the court, and would be a nice leader and bridge for a new PG if we were to draft one like Halliburton or someone else.

[Ghost of Kleine]

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[lilfishi22]

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This new arrangement where the NBA have set up a GL "exhibition" team that plays maybe 10 games is not all that useful for prospects aside from being able to make money imo. The tried and true route going through college and with the relaxed rules around endorsements just makes the going to the GL all the less attractive IMO.

[Ghost of Kleine]

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This new arrangement where the NBA have set up a GL "exhibition" team that plays maybe 10 games is not all that useful for prospects aside from being able to make money imo. The tried and true route going through college and with the relaxed rules around endorsements just makes the going to the GL all the less attractive IMO.

I'd also prefer they stay in college and get a good education for themselves to fall back on, also to secure more life experience in a safe, stable environment, and especially to more fully develope their basketball IQ, understanding, awareness and overall fundamentals as a 4 yr college prospect. But I can also see where the allure of all that money, marketing, etc. could be really enticing to a young, inexperienced prospect with a "soon to be a millionaire" mentality, But also with very little true/ tangible life experience.

[lilfishi22]

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This new arrangement where the NBA have set up a GL "exhibition" team that plays maybe 10 games is not all that useful for prospects aside from being able to make money imo. The tried and true route going through college and with the relaxed rules around endorsements just makes the going to the GL all the less attractive IMO.

I'd also prefer they stay in college and get a good education for themselves to fall back on, also to secure more life experience in a safe, stable environment, and especially to more fully develope their basketball IQ, understanding, awareness and overall fundamentals as a 4 yr college prospect. But I can also see where the allure of all that money, marketing, etc. could be really enticing to a young, inexperienced prospect with a "soon to be a millionaire" mentality, But also with very little true/ tangible life experience.

100%

The college experience by all accounts is the best experience for many who has gone through it and even some NBA champions have mentioned that winning an NCAA championship feels bigger and more memorable. The whole allure around marketing and making money is certainly attractive and education at college for most is always put on the back foot while basketball is priorities anyway so I see why it is a decent option for some.

For guys like Jalen Green who's expected to be a top 3 pick anyway, I think both options are fine so it's just a personal thing whether he values the college experience or the early money. FOr others who might not be at that level, I think going through college would be more beneficial.

[bwgood77]

About the poll and moving it back, it would also be nice for the year round sports season to have the draft like the last week in August a couple of weeks before NFL kicks off and instead of after July 4th, free agency could start the week after Labor Day (NFL kicks off the following weekend)...that way once free agency kind of stalled, at least those of us who do like the NFL, would have that going on while we wait to see what happens in the later days of free agency throughout Sept.

[Ghost of Kleine]

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[Ghost of Kleine]

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[Ghost of Kleine]

If we end up deciding to trade Oubre rather than choosing to pay him 20+ million ( expected market value in 2021), Seeing as how we have both Bridges and Cam at that position too, Would you do this trade:

Phoenix/ New York
***( Trading Oubre for a 2021 first basically).
http://www.espn.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=y9lw7r3t .

Phoenix trades Oubre to New York for Wayne Ellington/ Frank Ntilikina/ Kenny Wooten/ 25th pick/ Dallas 2021 unprotected first round pick.

- Wayne Ellington.
Can provide extra shooting/ offense behind Booker.
- Frank Ntilikina.
Can play some backup minutes at guard. Not a fan, But he's a throw in for salary purposes.
- Kenny Wooten.
He's a shotblocking savant and could really help our post/ rim defense. Best of all, he's only on a two way contract. This shows why I'd have interest in him.

Watch on YouTube

-27th pick. Draft Jalen Smith. ***( We draft one of Hayes, Haliburton, Anthony, Lewis or Riller at 10. Depending upon whoever falls. ** IF all of Hayes, Haliburton, Anthony are already off of the board, We then draft Vassell or Saddiq Bey. Then trade Diallo/ Okobo and a future conditional 2nd to Utah for the 24th pick, And draft either Tre Jones or Malachi Flynn.

-Dallas 2021 unprotected first. *** The real prize in this trade. Giving us two first round picks in a ridiculously loaded draft, And a better chance at actually drafting another elite talent.

[bwgood77]

If we end up deciding to trade Oubre rather than choosing to pay him 20+ million ( expected market value in 2021), Seeing as how we have both Bridges and Cam at that position too, Would you do this trade:

Phoenix/ New York
***( Trading Oubre for a 2021 first basically).
http://www.espn.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=y9lw7r3t .

Phoenix trades Oubre to New York for Wayne Ellington/ Frank Ntilikina/ Kenny Wooten/ 25th pick/ Dallas 2021 unprotected first round pick.

- Wayne Ellington.
Can provide extra shooting/ offense behind Booker.
- Frank Ntilikina.
Can play some backup minutes at guard. Not a fan, But he's a throw in for salary purposes.
- Kenny Wooten.
He's a shotblocking savant and could really help our post/ rim defense. Best of all, he's only on a two way contract. This shows why I'd have interest in him.

Watch on YouTube

-27th pick. Draft Jalen Smith. ***( We draft one of Hayes, Haliburton, Anthony, Lewis or Riller at 10. Depending upon whoever falls. ** IF all of Hayes, Haliburton, Anthony are already off of the board, We then draft Vassell or Saddiq Bey. Then trade Diallo/ Okobo and a future conditional 2nd to Utah for the 24th pick, And draft either Tre Jones or Malachi Flynn.

-Dallas 2021 unprotected first. *** The real prize in this trade. Giving us two first round picks in a ridiculously loaded draft, And a better chance at actually drafting another elite talent.

No, we need to not give up productive players now for players who are well below average or guys we hope may produce later.

I don't think they should pay Oubre $20 million a year, but we would need to get a productive player, or clear the required space to sign one that we know will sign with us if we move on from him.

[Ghost of Kleine]

If we end up deciding to trade Oubre rather than choosing to pay him 20+ million ( expected market value in 2021), Seeing as how we have both Bridges and Cam at that position too, Would you do this trade:

Phoenix/ New York
***( Trading Oubre for a 2021 first basically).
http://www.espn.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=y9lw7r3t .

Phoenix trades Oubre to New York for Wayne Ellington/ Frank Ntilikina/ Kenny Wooten/ 25th pick/ Dallas 2021 unprotected first round pick.

- Wayne Ellington.
Can provide extra shooting/ offense behind Booker.
- Frank Ntilikina.
Can play some backup minutes at guard. Not a fan, But he's a throw in for salary purposes.
- Kenny Wooten.
He's a shotblocking savant and could really help our post/ rim defense. Best of all, he's only on a two way contract. This shows why I'd have interest in him.

Watch on YouTube

-27th pick. Draft Jalen Smith. ***( We draft one of Hayes, Haliburton, Anthony, Lewis or Riller at 10. Depending upon whoever falls. ** IF all of Hayes, Haliburton, Anthony are already off of the board, We then draft Vassell or Saddiq Bey. Then trade Diallo/ Okobo and a future conditional 2nd to Utah for the 24th pick, And draft either Tre Jones or Malachi Flynn.

-Dallas 2021 unprotected first. *** The real prize in this trade. Giving us two first round picks in a ridiculously loaded draft, And a better chance at actually drafting another elite talent.

No, we need to not give up productive players now for players who are well below average or guys we hope may produce later.

I don't think they should pay Oubre $20 million a year, but we would need to get a productive player, or clear the required space to sign one that we know will sign with us if we move on from him.

That's a solid idea man, IF we can actually clear space to do that in spite of a descending cap over the next couple of seasons), AND IF there'll actually be a player that we know will be willing to choose to sign with us. So I have a couple of considerations with respect to that.

1- Even if we are able to clear cap space by renouncing the majority of our roster, That would still leave multiple positional holes that we'd then need to address. Also, with the obviously significant loss of revenue, We can't really be sure how much cap space renouncing everyone would even give us. The cap reduction might even reduce our available space by upwards of 10 million or more. So what big name veteran could we even pursue at that point in 2020? And then in 2021, Oubre reaches the free agency market anyways as an unrestricted free agent. So unless we're willing to tie up a large chunk of our cap 20+ million potentially, Then we'd very likely lose him for nothing anyways. So that only leaves us to consider viable trade options this coming season! But for who exactly? Which teams actually would be willing to give near equal value for a recently injured player, Who happens to be an expiring contract. But is also gonna command around 20+ million in a years time. Which teams would be excited about the proposition of potentially tying up their cap space to resign him, without seeing him play for a whole season first?

Maybe only a contending team with a load of cap space to offer? But again, who would that be? Maybe a Denver perhaps? Or maybe the 76ers, Or the Thunder? But for who again that would be considered equal value? And that we'd be happy to trade for? The only good fit that I'm seeing right now is Orlando! And Oubre for Gordon if possible. But would they really entertain that now, with their own cap implications and a descending restrictive cap?


Or maybe a really poor team with a ton of cap space, Only looking to make a splash?...............

Maybe a New York, Or maybe a Charlotte perhaps? But who else, And at that point, What equal value do we really expect to get back for a recently injured potential one year rental anyways???

2- We plan to resign him, But due to the restrictive cap over the next few seasons, Our plans to resign both Ayton and Bridges, As well as our ability to improve other areas of our roster are now greatly impacted by Oubres' contract matching in the area of 20- 25 million. So which other member of our core or starting rotation do we now decide to trade or simply let go, due to resigning Oubre to that amount?

Now at least with the 2021 draft, it's ridiculously deep and loaded with premium talent. Also with Eprospects with elite all star caliber potential in the lottery. And the beauty of going that route is in the increased cap cushion it would afford us towards our immenent core extensions, As well as allowing us more options to upgrade our roster in 2021. Again, My choice would be to move him for additional assets/picks in next summer's LOADED draft class. And to give us more cap space to address our other positionsal needs/ extensions accordingly. Also it's important to remember that we also have both Bridges and Cam that could very likely replace the majority of what Oubre currently gives us in the short term. So it's not like it'd be all that devastating to our overall production as a team.

Now IF we could pull of a trade for a highly productive veteran at a position of need, who additionally has a cost effective contract (** Aaron Gordon)!!! Then we should absolutely do it. But again, I just can't see how we'll be able to clear up the necessary cap space ( without creating additional roster holes) to actually sign any significant free agent unless we either move Oubre, Or move Rubio? Again, with respect to the restrictive cap implications of a lost season!

Lastly, Perhaps we could move our 10th pick for Gordon, And intend to keep Oubre. But with only the one pick, And then with Gordon making around 18 million for this season, How much of our roster would we actually need to lose, In order to be able to absorb Gordon whilst keeping Oubre interchangeably at the 3 and 4? And then how would we also be able to upgrade our backup guard position as well?

Also, in next year's draft, Do you really think that we couldn't find sufficient talent to replace Oubres' production of 18/6/ 1. With the ELITE talent throughout. Even in this percieved mediocre draft, You have prospects with 20 point per game averages as well as prospects that specialize in stuffing the stat sheets to comparable averages of what Oubre currently offers, But again, at only a fraction of the contractual cost. We need to consider moving Oubre whilst his value is at it's highest point, But we also need to remain realistic as to what options are best for our long term future as well.

[Blonde]

My preference would be to put all chips on the table this summer. That may involve trading Oubre, but if he remains then the following year we would be able to retain him with a negligible opportunity cost. What “all chips on the table” looks like I have no clue. The goal should be adding a star level talent to the core, and if that’s not possible then wait until it is. The worst thing we can do is chip into our cap space for 2021 without making any meaningful improvements. No guaranteed money beyond the 2020 season for players not in the long term plans, otherwise we cripple ourselves moving forward.

No Suns player is untradeable, BUT we’re no longer in a position to pursue trades where we don’t get the best player in the deal. Cannot be trading rotation players for a pile of fringe assets anymore.

Continue building around Booker, Bridges, Ayton. Everyone else continues to be expendable. Cam and Oubre are guys I’d love to remain on the team but if we can turn them into A tier talent I’ll pack their bags myself. Our draft pick means nothing to me. I like several prospects (big board coming soon) but if you can turn the 10th pick into a current player who fits the core you definitely do that.

The COVID offseason throws a wrench in everything. Teams are more likely to be conservative with moving players around because they never got a fair chance to see how the season played out and due to the uncertain cap. I’ve fantasized about a Ben Simmons trade for a long time but that seems totally unrealistic this offseason now that Philly never got to see their new roster in the playoffs. I predict very little movement but I hope I’m wrong. Most new contracts will probably be 1 or 2 year deals. We might take advantage of that with Millsap, Gallinari, or Ibaka.

[JDLAW]

Agree with most of what you said. No trades for expirings, fringe players and draft choice long shots (which is what most of this draft is made up of). Some posters are suggesting (stating) that there are a bunch of players in this draft that could replace Oubre's production, which is ridiculous. Even the highly touted RJ Barrett in a superior draft class came nowhere near what Oubre did last year. Also, don't see Oubre at the kind of salary some are suggesting. The only 2 players on this team that "untouchable" are Booker and Ayton. Not saying the rest of the players are on the block, but it is going to take a clearly superior player to grab Oubre, Bridges or Rubio. This year's 1st is far more likely to be traded for something of value than a rotational player.

[Ghost of Kleine]

Agree with most of what you said. No trades for expirings, fringe players and draft choice long shots (which is what most of this draft is made up of). Some posters are suggesting (stating) that there are a bunch of players in this draft that could replace Oubre's production, which is ridiculous. Even the highly touted RJ Barrett in a superior draft class came nowhere near what Oubre did last year. Also, don't see Oubre at the kind of salary some are suggesting. The only 2 players on this team that "untouchable" are Booker and Ayton. Not saying the rest of the players are on the block, but it is going to take a clearly superior player to grab Oubre, Bridges or Rubio. This year's 1st is far more likely to be traded for something of value than a rotational player.

That's cool man. Your opinion is duly noted, And I still respectfully disagree on your perspectives that there aren't any prospects in this draft that could potentially replicate similar/ equal production to that which Oubre has provided (** IF given the opportunity) And also your perspective that he ( Oubre) won't garner somewhere in the area of over 20+ million during his 2021 unrestricted free agency.

First point

Oubres' averages for this year, his (breakout season) were:
https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/o/oubreke01.html

18 / 6/ 1.5 assists. On 45% FG/ 35% 3PFG/ 78% Free throws/ And 51% EFG/ and 56% TS.

And this is of course with starters minutes, To the benefit of your argument, As most talented players with a decent jumpshot/ offensive skillset likely could put up around 18 points/ 6 assists with starters minutes. Now, When considering that this is currently a shooter's league, An offensive player with elite shooting skills/ scoring ability should again have little issues with enough shooting opportunities. For instance, You have a few prospects with already much better shooting efficiency than that of Oubre currently. When comparing a few prospects at the same positions from this draft I found this:

http://www.tankathon.com/players/compare?players=saddiq-bey--aaron-nesmith--devin-vassell--kelly-oubre .

Oubre gets beat in the majority of categories, With the exception of 2-3 more rebounds per average, 1 more steal per average, a better free throw rate, and DWS/40. And again, as for his current averages:

Oubre-
18 points/ 6 rebounds/ 1.5 assists/ 1.3 steals/ 0.7 blocks( 35% 3pt%/ 78% 45% Fg/ 51% EfG/ 56% TS. 21.9% usage rate.

Saddiq Bey-
17 points/ 5 rebounds/ 2.5 assists/ 0.8 steals/ 0.4 blocks. And 47% Fg/ 45% 3 ptFG/ 76% FT% / 58% EFG/ 60% True scoring%. 22% usage rate.

Devin Vassell- (*** Per 36)
15.9 points / 6.3 rebounds/ 2.0 assists/ 1.8 steals/ 1.2 blocks. And 49% FG/ 41%3ptFG/ 73% FT%/ 56% EFG/ 58% TS/ 20% usage rate.

Aaron Nesmith-
23 points/ 4.9 rebounds/ 0.9 assists/ 0.9 blocks/ 1.4 steals. And 51% FG%/ 52% 3pt%/ 82% FT%/ 65% EFG%/ 68% TS%/ 26% usage rate.

One last prospect to consider that is also a real stat stuffer, And is an advanced metrics beast!

Tyler Bey-
http://www.tankathon.com/players/tyler-bey

***(His per 36 to be fair). 17.2 points/ 11.2 rebounds/ 1.8 assists/ 1.9 steals/ 1.4 blocks/ 53% FG/ 74% FT%/ 55%EFG/ 61% TS/ 24% usage rate. And when you compare his metrics to that of Oubre:

http://www.tankathon.com/players/compare?players=tyler-bey--kelly-oubre

Tyler Bey beats him pretty handily across the board. Especially in Both defensive/ offensive win shares and BPM. Which would make him an absolute bargain for us at a contractual cost of around 1-2 million.

Bur even aside from that, Just those 3 prospects prior to Tyler Bey that I've mentioned have better shooting / scoring efficiency than Oubre does currently, are just as versatile, And most importantly are not anywhere near the same cost for projected production. And again, with it being a offense oriented/ shooters' league, And in seeing as how they're already quite comparable statistically in terms of what they put up, I just can't agree that the projection is all that ridiculous at all. Depending upon where they go, and their respective opportunities with that team. And especially not if they're given similar playing time or scoring opportunities. Not that this argument would even matter, As obviously, They'd be coming off the bench to add further depth off the bench, And Bridges/ and or Cam Johnson would be starting! Which in that case, Would you then also choose to dispute the possibility of Bridges and Cam averaging equal production as Oubre??? Even IF it was merely by combined effort?

2nd point

Oubres' " unrestricted " free agency will again be in 2021. This is a widely anticipated and highly coveted free agency by a great many teams in that summer, As it's well known that there'll be a number of all star/ franchise cornerstone players available then, As well as quite a few starter/ core level players to be had that same summer. Now a great many teams, in anticipation of this have and will continue to be clearing large portions of their cap space with the Hope's of signing one of these big names. And even though there will definitely be a potentialmeasurable impact over this season and the next, Due to loss of revenue from the lockdowns, There's still likely to be a great number of teams sitting on large chunks of cap space after missing out on their preferred star signings. And even though Oubre isn't viewed as a star himself at this point in his career, He will be widely viewed as a starter level young player just entering his prime, And will be expecting to recieve a starter level salary accordingly. So, maybe somewhere in the area of 20-25 million is the average pay scale currently for a productive starting level rotation player ........Yes? This will be further compounded by the desperation of those certain teams with large chunks of cap space that obviously will whiff on getting a big name, And as a result, much similar to a couple of summers ago.............

Will likely overpay for someone such as him to sell their fans on as an exciting consolation prize. There's always a few teams every summer that have a tendency to do this. And once the big names are gone, Then Oubres' value will escalate above the normal range. This will be due to non desirable destination teams bidding against each other for the best possible leftover scraps unfortunately. So in that respect, I disagree. But I guess we'll eventually see how it ultimately plays out man.

[Ghost of Kleine]

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[Jdiddy701]

I think we can all agree that Kelly Oubre is not worth over 20 million a year. His current contract is fair. If James Jones trades him this offseason it’s because he knows Oubre will get 20-25 million in his next contract with another team. If Oubre gets traded and signs around 15 million a year with another team, I’d be pissed.

I’m a huge Kelly Oubre fan and think this board doesn’t value him as much as we should. The Suns’ culture has changed in such a positive way and he has a lot to do with it. I worry if they trade him how the rest of the team would feel. He’s huge in the locker room.

I would trade Oubre if the Suns were getting GREAT value back, won’t do it just to do it. The most popular trade idea of Aaron Gordon for Oubre I would consider but ultimately pass. Should be an interesting offseason and decision to make going into next year’s deadline.


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