OT: COVID-19 thread #2

[DuckIII]

Ive been all over the place in terms of how serious covid-19 is and how aggressive we should continue to handle the situation. With that said i do hope the actual reality is closer to the reality that Elon Musk seems to believe.

Elon Musk’s opinion on this is medically idiotic on the one hand and driven by legitimate business concerns, on the other.

In other words, his frustration has caused him to adopt a view of the virus. Right before he went on his ignorant pseudo science tirade against the virus, he said this:

"I would call it forcibly imprisoning people in their homes against all their constitutional rights. That's my opinion, and breaking people's freedoms in ways that are horrible and wrong and not why people came to America or built this country — what the f---," he said.

Then he played doctor. The notion that the US is over-reporting COVID-19 deaths is fringe conspiracy crank nonsense. It’s virtually a 100% certainty that the deaths are underrepresented because not everyone sought or seeks formal medical care prior to expiring rendering their deaths non-classified.

And that’s just deaths. Given our putrid federal level response to testing (I.e. the only potentially real conspiracy) the number of infections generally also cannot possibly be reported at anywhere near complete accuracy.

I hate that it’s the case, but the reality is that COVID-19 is almost certainly worse than reported, not the opposite.

[coldfish]

Ive been all over the place in terms of how serious covid-19 is and how aggressive we should continue to handle the situation. With that said i do hope the actual reality is closer to the reality that Elon Musk seems to believe.

Elon Musk’s opinion on this is medically idiotic on the one hand and driven by legitimate business concerns, on the other.

In other words, his frustration has caused him to adopt a view of the virus. Right before he went on his ignorant pseudo science tirade against the virus, he said this:

"I would call it forcibly imprisoning people in their homes against all their constitutional rights. That's my opinion, and breaking people's freedoms in ways that are horrible and wrong and not why people came to America or built this country — what the f---," he said.

Then he played doctor. The notion that the US is over-reporting COVID-19 deaths is fringe conspiracy crank nonsense. It’s virtually a 100% certainty that the deaths are underrepresented because not everyone sought or seeks formal medical care prior to expiring rendering their deaths non-classified.

And that’s just deaths. Given our putrid federal level response to testing (I.e. the only potentially real conspiracy) the number of infections generally also cannot possibly be reported at anywhere near complete accuracy.

I hate that it’s the case, but the reality is that COVID-19 is almost certainly worse than reported, not the opposite.

They can do population studies and compare deaths over a certain period to past years. Almost invariably, deaths are 130 to 150% greater than reported.

OTOH, the cases are wildly underreported. Its either 10x to 50x what is reported. I can make a case that 40 million americans are or have been infected. The true death rate was calculated at 0.37% in Germany and that's before we figure any treatments out.

As a summary, this is much, much, much worse than the flu. Its significantly more infectious, significantly more deadly and no one is immune to it. OTOH, its not as bad as the numbers say where 3 to 10% of the people who get it die.

[Dresden]

Ive been all over the place in terms of how serious covid-19 is and how aggressive we should continue to handle the situation. With that said i do hope the actual reality is closer to the reality that Elon Musk seems to believe.

Elon Musk’s opinion on this is medically idiotic on the one hand and driven by legitimate business concerns, on the other.

In other words, his frustration has caused him to adopt a view of the virus. Right before he went on his ignorant pseudo science tirade against the virus, he said this:

"I would call it forcibly imprisoning people in their homes against all their constitutional rights. That's my opinion, and breaking people's freedoms in ways that are horrible and wrong and not why people came to America or built this country — what the f---," he said.

Then he played doctor. The notion that the US is over-reporting COVID-19 deaths is fringe conspiracy crank nonsense. It’s virtually a 100% certainty that the deaths are underrepresented because not everyone sought or seeks formal medical care prior to expiring rendering their deaths non-classified.

And that’s just deaths. Given our putrid federal level response to testing (I.e. the only potentially real conspiracy) the number of infections generally also cannot possibly be reported at anywhere near complete accuracy.

I hate that it’s the case, but the reality is that COVID-19 is almost certainly worse than reported, not the opposite.

Does he think that drafting young men and women and forcing them to fight in wars is also enslaving people? That's also a violation of their freedoms, too- a much more severe one than just telling them to stay home. Sometimes, you have to make some sacrifices for the good of your country. He seems to not understand this.

[Dresden]

Ive been all over the place in terms of how serious covid-19 is and how aggressive we should continue to handle the situation. With that said i do hope the actual reality is closer to the reality that Elon Musk seems to believe.

Elon Musk’s opinion on this is medically idiotic on the one hand and driven by legitimate business concerns, on the other.

In other words, his frustration has caused him to adopt a view of the virus. Right before he went on his ignorant pseudo science tirade against the virus, he said this:

"I would call it forcibly imprisoning people in their homes against all their constitutional rights. That's my opinion, and breaking people's freedoms in ways that are horrible and wrong and not why people came to America or built this country — what the f---," he said.

Then he played doctor. The notion that the US is over-reporting COVID-19 deaths is fringe conspiracy crank nonsense. It’s virtually a 100% certainty that the deaths are underrepresented because not everyone sought or seeks formal medical care prior to expiring rendering their deaths non-classified.

And that’s just deaths. Given our putrid federal level response to testing (I.e. the only potentially real conspiracy) the number of infections generally also cannot possibly be reported at anywhere near complete accuracy.

I hate that it’s the case, but the reality is that COVID-19 is almost certainly worse than reported, not the opposite.

They can do population studies and compare deaths over a certain period to past years. Almost invariably, deaths are 130 to 150% greater than reported.

OTOH, the cases are wildly underreported. Its either 10x to 50x what is reported. I can make a case that 40 million americans are or have been infected. The true death rate was calculated at 0.37% in Germany and that's before we figure any treatments out.

As a summary, this is much, much, much worse than the flu. Its significantly more infectious, significantly more deadly and no one is immune to it. OTOH, its not as bad as the numbers say where 3 to 10% of the people who get it die.

Just as an aside, using that same population method, an academic team estimated that the true death toll in Iraq in the immediate aftermath of our invasion was from 2 to 3 million extra deaths.

[dice]

the guy who brings trump his diet cokes tests positive:

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/white-house/military-official-working-white-house-tests-positive-coronavirus-n1202061

[dice]

Yes, republicans are so worried that people will abuse food stamps, yet they have complete confidence that giving huge tax breaks to the rich will result in those upper 1% using that extra money to create more jobs! Or that pumping up the military budget will not result in waste (the $500 hammer) and fraud (the Bradley fighting vehicle).

there is gobs of waste in the military budget, but the $500 hammer isn't necessarily part of it:

Watch on YouTube

[dice]

Ive been all over the place in terms of how serious covid-19 is and how aggressive we should continue to handle the situation. With that said i do hope the actual reality is closer to the reality that Elon Musk seems to believe.

Elon Musk’s opinion on this is medically idiotic on the one hand and driven by legitimate business concerns, on the other.

In other words, his frustration has caused him to adopt a view of the virus. Right before he went on his ignorant pseudo science tirade against the virus, he said this:

"I would call it forcibly imprisoning people in their homes against all their constitutional rights. That's my opinion, and breaking people's freedoms in ways that are horrible and wrong and not why people came to America or built this country — what the f---," he said.

Then he played doctor. The notion that the US is over-reporting COVID-19 deaths is fringe conspiracy crank nonsense. It’s virtually a 100% certainty that the deaths are underrepresented because not everyone sought or seeks formal medical care prior to expiring rendering their deaths non-classified.

And that’s just deaths. Given our putrid federal level response to testing (I.e. the only potentially real conspiracy) the number of infections generally also cannot possibly be reported at anywhere near complete accuracy.

I hate that it’s the case, but the reality is that COVID-19 is almost certainly worse than reported, not the opposite.

word is, trump is about to start publicly disputing the death totals, suggesting that hospitals are over-reporting in order to get additional payment through medicare

[The Box Office]

Here’s a question to my philosophy scholars... assuming talks continue to NOT be about putting emergency $$ in families hands, and NOT looking into or pushing UBI currently, does anyone feel we could be close to a unique revolt by the poor and middle class? Could be a bit scary to think of, but IMO, many of the indicators of a potential societal revolt are present, and I feel it could be close.

Again I’m not trying to doom and gloom, just posing some outside the box questions which I think should be considered.

I'm not a UBI proponent personally. I think the whole UBI movement has been caused by globalization. America made a massive mistake by allowing global supply chains. Globalization allowed the US to keep inflation low artificially. The best way to keep inflation low is via productivity increases and innovation. What we did in the late 90s and 00s was to outsource our work to keep inflation low. These large companies then increased their profits without having to actually invest in their businesses. They then gave share buybacks with easy money and increased the wealth of the richest while globalization held down the wages of the lower to middle class.

Inflation is only high in industries that cannot be outsourced. Healthcare, housing, restaurants, defense, etc. What we need to do is stop the global supply chains. We need a new world order where we build regional supply chains. North America will pay North American prices, Asia will pay Asian prices, etc. This will increase inflation in this country, but it will also create more good paying jobs.

If we can get inflation up to 3% for a couple of years by doing this it will drastically help the countries fiscal situation. This will allow us to spend more on Universal Healthcare, Free childcare, etc. I'm a big believer in the economic policies of the current administration. I disagree with everything else. I believe what the administration is doing will in the long run help our financial situation which will allow us to do a lot of the things that the liberals wants.

Think of inflation like this. If we can get inflation to 3% for the next 10 years it will cover all the interest payments we have on our current debt. If we get 2% growth on top of that each year the government will get 5% more revenue without raising taxes. That is the way it used to be, but as soon as we started globalizing supply chains that stopped.

Not sure if I explained it all well.

Don't respond with insults about people's political beliefs and straight up politics bashing, please keep the thread about covid, and to the extent you are going to talk about politics where it is relevant please at least speak with some thought and level headedness like above and not just bashing someone's opinion because you disagree with it. - doug

[dougthonus]

I'm not a UBI proponent personally. I think the whole UBI movement has been caused by globalization. America made a massive mistake by allowing global supply chains. Globalization allowed the US to keep inflation low artificially. The best way to keep inflation low is via productivity increases and innovation. What we did in the late 90s and 00s was to outsource our work to keep inflation low. These large companies then increased their profits without having to actually invest in their businesses. They then gave share buybacks with easy money and increased the wealth of the richest while globalization held down the wages of the lower to middle class.

Inflation is only high in industries that cannot be outsourced. Healthcare, housing, restaurants, defense, etc. What we need to do is stop the global supply chains. We need a new world order where we build regional supply chains. North America will pay North American prices, Asia will pay Asian prices, etc. This will increase inflation in this country, but it will also create more good paying jobs.

If we can get inflation up to 3% for a couple of years by doing this it will drastically help the countries fiscal situation. This will allow us to spend more on Universal Healthcare, Free childcare, etc. I'm a big believer in the economic policies of the current administration. I disagree with everything else. I believe what the administration is doing will in the long run help our financial situation which will allow us to do a lot of the things that the liberals wants.

Think of inflation like this. If we can get inflation to 3% for the next 10 years it will cover all the interest payments we have on our current debt. If we get 2% growth on top of that each year the government will get 5% more revenue without raising taxes. That is the way it used to be, but as soon as we started globalizing supply chains that stopped.

Not sure if I explained it all well.

We can always pay down our debt by just printing money. We don't need inflation to do anything to do that. We can just print the money we need to pay the debt. What that does to our future credit rating and ability to get new debt at favorable interest rates is the problem, so if you get to that point, you'd better have solved the deficit problem, because your new interest rate is going to be much worse.

Creating local supply chains and more jobs isn't necessarily useful in that way, because you are now also massively increasing costs of all things people need. The jobs created would be good with teh current cost structures, but afterward the price of everything doubles those jobs will no longer necessarily be good. It also ignores the impacts of automation which is just cutting jobs regardless of whether or not you have a global supply chain or that there are likely some resources you simply can't get enough quantity reasonably locally to not have a global supply chain.

In the end, the problem is our society rewards capital more than labor. A lot of this is due to tax code. This situation means the rich will tend to always become richer and the poor/middle class will tend to become poorer. I don't know how you could swing the pendulum correctly in this technological era even if the politicians wanted to (which they clearly do not as they would be hurting themselves).

[stl705]

In basketball, we always like to discuss how “eras” change. What used to be a Big Man dominant NBA is now completely reversed towards a 3-Ball dominant league.

I just don’t see how we can sit here and expect the politics and current economic structures we’ve had in place for how many decades to work in 2020 moving forward?

Maybe it worked 50 years ago, maybe it worked 75 years ago.. just like the NBA, the world changes, and its time for us to start making changes to how our govt and economic infrastructure works. Whatever we are doing now, clearly it isn’t working.

I don’t know if UBI is the answer but it’s far worth a shot with current unemployment numbers and no guarantee the lost jobs are coming back.

https://www.yahoo.com/huffpost/coronavirus-stimulus-checks-irs-090000037.html

[Dresden]

Here's another example for those who don't seen any difference between how democrats and republicans are responding to this crisis:

"A new bill seeks to dramatically increase financial relief for struggling American families amid the ongoing coronavirus pandemic by extending the government’s stimulus checks months after the crisis is over.

The Monthly Economic Crisis Support Act, introduced Friday by Sens. Kamala Harris (D-Calif.), Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and Ed Markey (D-Mass.), would provide a monthly $2,000 check to every person with an income below $120,000 throughout the public health crisis and for three months after it officially ends."

Let's see how many republicans support this idea.....

[Ccwatercraft]

Here's another example for those who don't seen any difference between how democrats and republicans are responding to this crisis:

"A new bill seeks to dramatically increase financial relief for struggling American families amid the ongoing coronavirus pandemic by extending the government’s stimulus checks months after the crisis is over.

The Monthly Economic Crisis Support Act, introduced Friday by Sens. Kamala Harris (D-Calif.), Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and Ed Markey (D-Mass.), would provide a monthly $2,000 check to every person with an income below $120,000 throughout the public health crisis and for three months after it officially ends."

Let's see how many republicans support this idea.....

jesus that seems like a lot of money being tossed around.

Not that I complained that I received a stimulus check but it wasn't needed, it just made April a more profitable month, same goes for my siblings, coworkers, and my extended family my parents and inlaws who have been retired for 10+ years. UI seems to be covering the vast majority of those that lost their jobs pretty well, especially with the $600 bonus. My concern is that it would reduce incentive to go back to work.

So personally, i'm not clamoring for more stimulus checks, but if they deposit more into my account i'll hold onto it because by the end of the year i'll be likely be seeing partial income loss in the household (recession related) An extra 4K a month for say 4 months would be a 16k windfall.

[dougthonus]

Here's another example for those who don't seen any difference between how democrats and republicans are responding to this crisis:

"A new bill seeks to dramatically increase financial relief for struggling American families amid the ongoing coronavirus pandemic by extending the government’s stimulus checks months after the crisis is over.

The Monthly Economic Crisis Support Act, introduced Friday by Sens. Kamala Harris (D-Calif.), Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and Ed Markey (D-Mass.), would provide a monthly $2,000 check to every person with an income below $120,000 throughout the public health crisis and for three months after it officially ends."

Let's see how many republicans support this idea.....

I don't even like that idea. Too much hand out to people who don't need it. Money should go to:
1: Essential workers making below ~50-60k a year as a bump for the extra work they're doing and aren't making less by actually working than getting unemployment checks.

2: Unemployed people.

What is the merit in giving someone working from home at 70k a year a 12k in stimulus?

[dougthonus]

I don’t know if UBI is the answer but it’s far worth a shot with current unemployment numbers and no guarantee the lost jobs are coming back.

Eventually, UBI (or a huge amount of free standard services like housing, food, utilities, and health care and anything else viewed as a necessity) will be the answer for society as a whole if the human race doesn't kill itself off. Technology will simply remove the need for most jobs.

We will have to move away from capitalism to something else, because the individual effort of human labor will be devalued. We already see that with earnings today. Labor is not that valuable relative to capital in terms of how we reward people. While this is particularly true about physical labor, intellectual labor will be coming under charge next.

[Ccwatercraft]

Here's another example for those who don't seen any difference between how democrats and republicans are responding to this crisis:

"A new bill seeks to dramatically increase financial relief for struggling American families amid the ongoing coronavirus pandemic by extending the government’s stimulus checks months after the crisis is over.

The Monthly Economic Crisis Support Act, introduced Friday by Sens. Kamala Harris (D-Calif.), Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and Ed Markey (D-Mass.), would provide a monthly $2,000 check to every person with an income below $120,000 throughout the public health crisis and for three months after it officially ends."

Let's see how many republicans support this idea.....

I don't even like that idea. Too much hand out to people who don't need it. Money should go to:
1: Essential workers making below ~50-60k a year as a bump for the extra work they're doing and aren't making less by actually working than getting unemployment checks.

2: Unemployed people.

What is the merit in giving someone working from home at 70k a year a 12k in stimulus?

Agree. FWIW I'd at least argue harder for the 70k guy than retired people or those on disability, at least theres a chance that they will lose income.

[dougthonus]

Agree. FWIW I'd at least argue harder for the 70k guy than retired people or those on disability, at least theres a chance that they will lose income.

The cutoffs I named were certainly arbitrary and not something I feel strongly about without doing some real research or data mining. I'm sure you'd have to factor in different caps for those whom are married vs non married as well.

My goal with stimulus would be to help workers impacted:
1: The unemployed
2: The people whom would make more money if they were unemployed.
3: The people forced to work for low wages in a high risk environment.

I want to help small business of course too, but that's a whole different program not related to this and should be managed under SBA.

[Dresden]

Here's another example for those who don't seen any difference between how democrats and republicans are responding to this crisis:

"A new bill seeks to dramatically increase financial relief for struggling American families amid the ongoing coronavirus pandemic by extending the government’s stimulus checks months after the crisis is over.

The Monthly Economic Crisis Support Act, introduced Friday by Sens. Kamala Harris (D-Calif.), Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and Ed Markey (D-Mass.), would provide a monthly $2,000 check to every person with an income below $120,000 throughout the public health crisis and for three months after it officially ends."

Let's see how many republicans support this idea.....

I don't even like that idea. Too much hand out to people who don't need it. Money should go to:
1: Essential workers making below ~50-60k a year as a bump for the extra work they're doing and aren't making less by actually working than getting unemployment checks.

2: Unemployed people.

What is the merit in giving someone working from home at 70k a year a 12k in stimulus?

That's fine if you want to argue for a different cut off point for the aid. Although you can also argue that pumping more money into the economy right now will help bring jobs back sooner. But at least democrats are out there putting together some ideas and suggestions to help people who are suffering and in need. While meanwhile, republicans will veto anything of the sort, including expanding the food stamp program.

[johnnyvann840]

I don’t know if UBI is the answer but it’s far worth a shot with current unemployment numbers and no guarantee the lost jobs are coming back.

Eventually, UBI (or a huge amount of free standard services like housing, food, utilities, and health care and anything else viewed as a necessity) will be the answer for society as a whole if the human race doesn't kill itself off. Technology will simply remove the need for most jobs.

We will have to move away from capitalism to something else, because the individual effort of human labor will be devalued. We already see that with earnings today. Labor is not that valuable relative to capital in terms of how we reward people. While this is particularly true about physical labor, intellectual labor will be coming under charge next.

I think that half the jobs lost are permanent. And I think a lot of the people who will still have jobs won't be going back to the office they're going to work from home. Ultimately, this is going to cause major vacancies in commercial real estate which is going to drive prices down to the dirt which is going to carry over to the housing market. I think we're going to have a bigger housing market crash than we did when the housing bubble burst. All those office vacancies are also going to have a ripple effect what about the deli around the corner that used to serve the people that worked in those Office Buildings what about the secretaries doormen, etc. The peripheral losses could be extraordinary.

If we have another wave of the virus in the fall, after things are opened up , things will be even worse. If a vaccine or some treatment that works unbelievably well it will help a lot, but unfortunately I think a lot of the damage will either be irreversible or it could take a couple of decades to get back to where we were before this started.

[johnnyvann840]

Have a good friend who lives in Brooklyn and he says New York City is just toast. It will never be the same. Forest City that rely so heavily on public transportation when are people going to be willing to get back on the subway? He said people are moving out of New York and droves anyone with money is already gone out in the Hamptons or in Connecticut. My friend said he didn't pay rent for last month and he's not going to pay rent and just wait until they start evicting people again. He's a touring musician and also owns a production company that puts on festivals so his income is completely shot right now.

[Dresden]

I don’t know if UBI is the answer but it’s far worth a shot with current unemployment numbers and no guarantee the lost jobs are coming back.

Eventually, UBI (or a huge amount of free standard services like housing, food, utilities, and health care and anything else viewed as a necessity) will be the answer for society as a whole if the human race doesn't kill itself off. Technology will simply remove the need for most jobs.

We will have to move away from capitalism to something else, because the individual effort of human labor will be devalued. We already see that with earnings today. Labor is not that valuable relative to capital in terms of how we reward people. While this is particularly true about physical labor, intellectual labor will be coming under charge next.

I think that half the jobs lost are permanent. And I think a lot of the people who will still have jobs won't be going back to the office they're going to work from home. Ultimately, this is going to cause major vacancies in commercial real estate which is going to drive prices down to the dirt which is going to carry over to the housing market. I think we're going to have a bigger housing market crash than we did when the housing bubble burst. All those office vacancies are also going to have a ripple effect what about the deli around the corner that used to serve the people that worked in those Office Buildings what about the secretaries doormen, etc. The peripheral losses could be extraordinary.

If we have another wave of the virus in the fall, after things are opened up , things will be even worse. If a vaccine or some treatment that works unbelievably well it will help a lot, but unfortunately I think a lot of the damage will either be irreversible or it could take a couple of decades to get back to where we were before this started.

If a vaccine is developed, and it's effective, why would these changes be permanent?

OTH, I heard a report about the air travel industry today- they predict by end of the year they'll see air traffic back to about 50% of what it was pre-pandemic, and that it could take 3 years to be at 2019 levels again.

I do agree that in the short term, commercial real estate is going to suffer greatly. Maybe not so much office buildings, because they probably will come up with solutions to make them relatively safe to work in again, but all the spaces that house small retail shops, or food places, and the like.

Another big problem is public transport. How will they make that safe again? A lot more people will want to drive now, which will put more stress on the roadways.