2019-20 Offseason Thread

[Black Watch]

It'll be a gamechanger...in time. None of the epidemiologists I'm following (and man, the moment where I swapped out all of my sports follows for public health officials was a bleak one) seem to believe that it'll allow for a rapid return to normalcy. In the short term, it'll allow them to figure out the statistical parameters of COVID, as you say, but unless it turns out that the number of people who have recovered vastly exceeds even optimistic projections, we're still looking at a pretty substantial period of trying to get this contained before we can think about something as trivial as sports.

Epidemiologists are quoted in the press in order to help sound the alarms that will shock us out of our complacent obstinacy and into some timely panic. That's the job of the press and they're playing their role in that. They're speaking to a mob, and the mob only knows two modes: panic and complacency.

Any overt public discourse on serology tests being a gamechanger may detract from that much-needed panic right now.

[Schad]

For the sake of comparison, Wuhan's peak was in early/mid February; they're only tentatively lifting restrictions now. Italy's peak was in mid-March; they're still some time short of lifting restrictions.

If this proves to be the peak for the US, it'd still be optimistic if restrictions are lifted to some extent by the start of June. We're going to still be in the position of people dying in large numbers for at least a month, and then it'll be some time thereafter before attention shifts back to normalcy. Even off-peak, Italy is seeing thousands die per week, and will continue to see those numbers for some time. And their peak is well below what is or will be the peak in the US.

[Schad]

On the previous point about R0, yikes.

Read on Twitter

Per his thread, at that level you'd need over 80% of the population immunized to have effective herd immunity.

[BigLeagueChew]

What happens to the other %20?

[Black Watch]

What happens to the other %20?

[Black Watch]

For the sake of comparison, Wuhan's peak was in early/mid February; they're only tentatively lifting restrictions now. Italy's peak was in mid-March; they're still some time short of lifting restrictions.

If this proves to be the peak for the US, it'd still be optimistic if restrictions are lifted to some extent by the start of June. We're going to still be in the position of people dying in large numbers for at least a month, and then it'll be some time thereafter before attention shifts back to normalcy. Even off-peak, Italy is seeing thousands die per week, and will continue to see those numbers for some time. And their peak is well below what is or will be the peak in the US.

Wuhan's approach was to lockdown until the virus peters out locally, and then be very vigilant against re-importing it from travellers. It has been a constant state of tension, and that approach is probably not sustainable if applied to North America...

[Black Watch]

On the previous point about R0, yikes.

Read on Twitter

Per his thread, at that level you'd need over 80% of the population immunized to have effective herd immunity.

Remember that R0 is not set in stone, Schad. It is an average, and can also vary from place to place.

[BigLeagueChew]

What happens to the other %20?

Poorly worded question on my part. How many people pass away with %80 herd immunity?

We're seeing a lot of areas where obesity is a factor, smoking, age,race and underlying health conditions. Some of the reasons areas get hit harder than others. Half of the deaths in Ontario are from retirement homes.

[BigLeagueChew]

Fauci envisioned a scenario where indeed baseball is able to launch a season by the middle of the summer — sans live fans, of course. “If you could get on television, Major League Baseball, to start July 4,” Fauci suggested, ” … Well, I think you’d probably get enough buy-in from people who are dying to see a baseball game. Particularly me. I’m living in Washington. We have the World Champion Washington Nationals. You know, I want to see them play again.”

Getting there won’t be easy. Fauci spoke of “proposals” involving gathering and isolating players and others associated with putting on the sporting event “in big hotels” near playing sites. It would be necessary to utilize such isolation with frequent testing and other efforts to “make sure they don’t wind up infecting each other or their family.”

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2020/04/dr-anthony-fauci-on-possibility-of-2020-mlb-season.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=facebook

[Fairview4Life]

This was fun. 7th inning insanity around 1:05:00/1:06:00 or so.

Watch on YouTube

[LoveMyRaps]

Is the bluejaysmessageboard down for anyone else?

[Black Watch]

What happens to the other %20?

Poorly worded question on my part. How many people pass away with %80 herd immunity?

We're seeing a lot of areas where obesity is a factor, smoking, age,race and underlying health conditions. Some of the reasons areas get hit harder than others. Half of the deaths in Ontario are from retirement homes.

Ah, I understand your question now...

Well, not all of the remaining 20% would get the virus, and not all people who get the virus die. And the percentage of that remaining 20% who get the virus depends on where we are at that stage (of the peak).

Notice that the three boxes at the bottom of the image I linked have only a select few blue dots (unvaccinated persons), and as the herd immunity increases not every blue dot turns red (infected). It's a visual way of explaining that very few of the remaining 20% will become infected.

[SharoneWright]

Right. It's a double whammy.

1) Unvaccinated people bump into 80% fewer unvaccinated people.... and
2) Unvaccinated people are (up to) 80% less infected because of the vaccinated community.

Mutual unvaccinated contacts are less often and less risky.

But you can't put a percentage on "herd immunity". You can just say more or less. All you can quantify is %vaccinated and %infected. Herd immunity is a byproduct that just happens. It's the RO that makes this particular virus so tough to stamp out and requires such a high rate of inoculation.

[BigLeagueChew]

Roughly 1,558,959,747 would be the twenty percent, a number under that.

If the rates are correct:


https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus

Some countries have much more population in the 60+ range than others though.

[Schad]

Expected infection fatality rate seems to be in the 0.6-1.2% range...probably won't know for a good year or two, given that both cases and deaths are undercounted, and the serological testing has frankly been something of a complete cluster of **** to date.

So in a situation where 60% of the world's population got it, you'd expect 28-56m to die. There's still a hell of a lot we don't know however.

[TheDunc]

honestly what makes sports so uncertain is the possibility of player x getting the virus and the whole league having to take a pause again to determine who that player might have given it to or will this be treated like the flu where the season goes on as usual?

[Schad]

That's a significant part of it; unless the players, managers, team staff, support staff and umps are held in a hermetically-sealed bubble, you're almost definitely going to have to shut things back down after a further outbreak, unless you have dropped the public infection rate enough to have any real shot at keeping it out.

And sports have already proven to be a major vector. One of the biggest drivers of the early explosion of COVID in both Italy and Spain was the Valencia - Atalanta Champions League match. While most of the spread there was in the stands, a large number of players from both clubs (plus support staff) also fell ill. And I don't know how you go about the season if you have to quarantine an entire baseball team for weeks on end with any regularity.

As an example of where you'd need to get to, Japan has more than one-third the population of the US, but barely more than 1% of the confirmed cases, and about 0.7% of the deaths. They aren't expecting to start the season until the end of May, at the earliest. Taiwan is playing, with no fans, but they also have almost no active cases and have had 6 deaths total.

Alternatively, quarantine every player for three weeks and then play the season in New Brunswick.

[BigLeagueChew]

What challenges do Blue Jays face as only non-American team in MLB?

Major League Baseball seems to be getting closer to a return but what could the league and fans expect once play resumes? TSN Baseball Insider Steve Phillips discusses the logistical issues, including duration of the season, divisional formats, protocols for positive COVID-19 tests in the future and how the Blue Jays could be impacted being the only team outside the United States.

https://www.tsn.ca/mlb/video/~1956145?fbclid=IwAR1KEbDkLsZYQAHVmmuoe1wCKG7v8I3X3KR85nBY3wd-ivvbhAj6MC6Gv7w

[polo007]

Read on Twitter

[Fairview4Life]

......gonna go ahead and skip that one