OT: COVID-19 thread #2

[jmajew]

Good news...Today in Illinois we tested 17,688 people and of that we got 1,677 positive tests. This is the first time I have seen the percentage of positive tests below 10% in the state.

[moorhosj]

I tend to find extremely little value in studies where the subjects self select and self report things like that. And I'm extremely skeptical that biological and environmental differences yield the same function between reality ("happiness") and results cross culturally. People are not all the same other than differing public policy. They have different biology and different environments that can skew how they report their own feelings.

Again, though, happiness is a questionable all around metric anyways. And extremely poorly defined IMO.

Sounds like you find little value in things that challenge your pre-determined bias.

[Dresden]

dr. steven sample, emergency physician in jasper, IN:

“about 2 weeks ago about half of people here were wearing masks. I was out today and it was probably 10%. i’ve been extremely frustrated. we have a shared purpose – a common enemy – and in the past when we’ve had a common enemy we’ve risen together as a people, and we’ve accomplished things that we shouldn’t have been able to accomplish. and now for some reason over the last couple of weeks, asking someone to wear a mask in public has become a step too far. now it’s communism, it’s fascism, we’re part of a secret cabal to take down the president. i felt that we were coming together a few weeks back. i spend 90% of my online time now not learning how to take care of patients with this virus but shooting down conspiracy theories. doctors all over the country are having to spend their time and energy begging people to listen to those who actually know what they’re talking about”



people bristling at being asked to wear masks in public to protect the public health. where's their indignity at being asked to wear clothes?

The government can’t make people wear masks. It should be a choice. In a business though like a market it’s different, if they want you to wear a mask then you have to respect that rule and wear a mask.

Outside in public it’s a choice. If people don’t want to wear one they shouldn’t be forced to by anyone and if people get offended or scared by them then they shouldn’t go out in public. I will never wear a mask to just go for a walk at the park or around the block, that’s ridiculous.

I believe they do have that power, in times of a public health crisis. They can absolutely pass a regulation or an order that requires you to wear a mask wherever and whenever not doing so will put the public at risk. Just like they can pass shelter in place orders, and anyone that violates it can be fined.

[Dresden]

Because cultural phenomenon could change the average answers to the questions in a way that is not a good indicator of what they're trying to get at. Basically, imagine an american and a swede who both would be an "8" for happiness if it could magically be measured accurately (not self reported). Cultural differences may, for example, trend such that the average swede who is objectively an 8 actually rates themselves a 9, while the average american who is objectively an 8 actually rates themself a 5.

A big part of all of this is knowing that virtually any subset of a group will skew away from all group characteristics. Essentially ANY division of people (in this case by national boundary) will yield a sample that is different from the overall population it was drawn from, and different from any other subset drawn by the same criteria.

Most people perceive humans to be indistinguishable on a population level no matter how you divide then, but that's really an anti-science perspective IMO.

Just not sure why you think that can't be measured and accounted for. That's really pretty standard practice in the world of statistics.

I'm not really familiar with what studies were done, how many people were polled, how they analyzed and normalized the data across cultures and to know whether the results are good.

I'm familiar enough with statistics to know that it's pretty common to solve these problems, there are methods for doing so, and there's no reason why a good study that yields reasonable results cannot be performed.

I would assume that based on the fact that it's definitely possible and based on the fact that there is probably a high level of interest in the topic that such a study that delivers accurate results probably has been done and is statistically sound/valid.

I agree with Doug's point. It sounds like it would be hard to quantify, but people in the social sciences create tests or polls like this all the time. If you've ever looked at a test to see if you are depressed or not, they ask you to rate your feelings on a number of questions, with either a number, or answers like "some of the time", "most of the time", "seldom", etc. You'd think that wouldn't produce very precise results, but when you compare how one person answers to how a million others have answered, you can more or less accurately judge that person's level of depression.

[dice]

i'm sure there's some truth to that. i'm also sure that much of it has to do with the economic elites, with interests to protect, effectively marketing any shift to a more just economic structure as a threat to the white middle class

OECD nations ranked by cultural diversity (most to least) along with median wealth per adult (in thousands):

high diversity

0.499 canada ($107)
0.492 estonia ($25)
0.462 belgium ($117)
0.441 latvia ($13)
0.434 mexico ($10)
0.418 switzerland ($228)
0.382 australia ($181)
0.363 new zealand ($116)

moderate diversity

0.299 turkey ($7)
0.293 slovakia ($40)
0.271 USA ($66)
0.263 spain ($95)
0.259 lithuania ($22)
0.251 france ($102)
0.246 israel ($58)

low diversity

0.185 hungary ($18)
0.184 UK ($97)
0.170 slovenia ($50)
0.167 chile ($19)
0.157 ireland ($105)
0.132 finland ($56)
0.128 denmark ($59)
0.100 austria ($94)
0.098 norway ($71)
0.090 germany ($35)
0.077 netherlands ($31)
0.064 czech ($21)
0.050 greece ($40)
0.041 poland ($23)
0.040 italy ($92)
0.040 portugal ($44)
0.020 colombia ($5)
0.012 japan ($110)
0.004 s korea ($72)

countries in bold have greater median wealth than the USA. there simply doesn't seem to be much if any correlation between a nation's diversity and the well-being of the average resident

also note that despite our great national wealth, the average american's wealth is pretty middle-of-the-pack as compared to those in other nations

Just curious where you get the numbers from and where the US falls on the diversity scale?

US is middle of the pack in cultural diversity:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_ranked_by_ethnic_and_cultural_diversity_level

I think population size is another factor that can work against you. The larger the population the less efficient things become. You certainly see that at a corporate level anyway.

probably so. i would also guess that that reduced efficiency levels off when you get to the level of millions of people, though. e.g. scaling from 5K to 100K presents more new issues than scaling from 5 million to 100 million

[League Circles]

Because cultural phenomenon could change the average answers to the questions in a way that is not a good indicator of what they're trying to get at. Basically, imagine an american and a swede who both would be an "8" for happiness if it could magically be measured accurately (not self reported). Cultural differences may, for example, trend such that the average swede who is objectively an 8 actually rates themselves a 9, while the average american who is objectively an 8 actually rates themself a 5.

A big part of all of this is knowing that virtually any subset of a group will skew away from all group characteristics. Essentially ANY division of people (in this case by national boundary) will yield a sample that is different from the overall population it was drawn from, and different from any other subset drawn by the same criteria.

Most people perceive humans to be indistinguishable on a population level no matter how you divide then, but that's really an anti-science perspective IMO.

Just not sure why you think that can't be measured and accounted for. That's really pretty standard practice in the world of statistics.

I'm not really familiar with what studies were done, how many people were polled, how they analyzed and normalized the data across cultures and to know whether the results are good.

I'm familiar enough with statistics to know that it's pretty common to solve these problems, there are methods for doing so, and there's no reason why a good study that yields reasonable results cannot be performed.

I would assume that based on the fact that it's definitely possible and based on the fact that there is probably a high level of interest in the topic that such a study that delivers accurate results probably has been done and is statistically sound/valid.

I agree with Doug's point. It sounds like it would be hard to quantify, but people in the social sciences create tests or polls like this all the time. If you've ever looked at a test to see if you are depressed or not, they ask you to rate your feelings on a number of questions, with either a number, or answers like "some of the time", "most of the time", "seldom", etc. You'd think that wouldn't produce very precise results, but when you compare how one person answers to how a million others have answered, you can more or less accurately judge that person's level of depression.

Social sciences often produce extremely flawed studies, IMO.

[League Circles]

I tend to find extremely little value in studies where the subjects self select and self report things like that. And I'm extremely skeptical that biological and environmental differences yield the same function between reality ("happiness") and results cross culturally. People are not all the same other than differing public policy. They have different biology and different environments that can skew how they report their own feelings.

Again, though, happiness is a questionable all around metric anyways. And extremely poorly defined IMO.

Sounds like you find little value in things that challenge your pre-determined bias.

What in the world are you talking about? What bias? I'm discussing a specific methodological problem. Do you disagree that non-randomized samples are inherently problematic in studying populations?

[dice]

state-wide stay at home order by WI governor deemed unconstitutional by conservative WI supreme court

[DuckIII]

dr. steven sample, emergency physician in jasper, IN:

“about 2 weeks ago about half of people here were wearing masks. I was out today and it was probably 10%. i’ve been extremely frustrated. we have a shared purpose – a common enemy – and in the past when we’ve had a common enemy we’ve risen together as a people, and we’ve accomplished things that we shouldn’t have been able to accomplish. and now for some reason over the last couple of weeks, asking someone to wear a mask in public has become a step too far. now it’s communism, it’s fascism, we’re part of a secret cabal to take down the president. i felt that we were coming together a few weeks back. i spend 90% of my online time now not learning how to take care of patients with this virus but shooting down conspiracy theories. doctors all over the country are having to spend their time and energy begging people to listen to those who actually know what they’re talking about”



people bristling at being asked to wear masks in public to protect the public health. where's their indignity at being asked to wear clothes?

The government can’t make people wear masks. It should be a choice. In a business though like a market it’s different, if they want you to wear a mask then you have to respect that rule and wear a mask.

Outside in public it’s a choice. If people don’t want to wear one they shouldn’t be forced to by anyone and if people get offended or scared by them then they shouldn’t go out in public. I will never wear a mask to just go for a walk at the park or around the block, that’s ridiculous.

The government absolutely can require citizens to wear masks during a pandemic. You have no idea what you are talking about.

I’m starting to feel like an epidemiologist lately, reading all these whackadoo statements by newly minted constitutional scholars going on about liberty and their rights and with each word proving they know nothing about the constitution.

[DuckIII]

state-wide stay at home order by WI governor deemed unconstitutional by conservative WI supreme court

Brought to you by the court that made at-risk citizens and volunteer poll workers gather in tight confines to cast votes in person in the middle of a pandemic.

The Chief Justice of the court compared shelter orders to the Japanese Internment Camps. Wisconsin is a partisan hell hole right now.

[Dresden]

Just not sure why you think that can't be measured and accounted for. That's really pretty standard practice in the world of statistics.

I'm not really familiar with what studies were done, how many people were polled, how they analyzed and normalized the data across cultures and to know whether the results are good.

I'm familiar enough with statistics to know that it's pretty common to solve these problems, there are methods for doing so, and there's no reason why a good study that yields reasonable results cannot be performed.

I would assume that based on the fact that it's definitely possible and based on the fact that there is probably a high level of interest in the topic that such a study that delivers accurate results probably has been done and is statistically sound/valid.

I agree with Doug's point. It sounds like it would be hard to quantify, but people in the social sciences create tests or polls like this all the time. If you've ever looked at a test to see if you are depressed or not, they ask you to rate your feelings on a number of questions, with either a number, or answers like "some of the time", "most of the time", "seldom", etc. You'd think that wouldn't produce very precise results, but when you compare how one person answers to how a million others have answered, you can more or less accurately judge that person's level of depression.

Social sciences often produce extremely flawed studies, IMO.

Nice of you to dismiss a whole branch of academics. Wouldn't have anything to do with the fact that they tend to be liberal/progressive would it?

[dice]

Good news...Today in Illinois we tested 17,688 people and of that we got 1,677 positive tests. This is the first time I have seen the percentage of positive tests below 10% in the state.

more available testing means that the symptoms don't have to be as bad in order for a person to get tested, though. it's difficult to suss out what's actually going on right now in terms of infection rates

[johnnyvann840]

dr. steven sample, emergency physician in jasper, IN:

“about 2 weeks ago about half of people here were wearing masks. I was out today and it was probably 10%. i’ve been extremely frustrated. we have a shared purpose – a common enemy – and in the past when we’ve had a common enemy we’ve risen together as a people, and we’ve accomplished things that we shouldn’t have been able to accomplish. and now for some reason over the last couple of weeks, asking someone to wear a mask in public has become a step too far. now it’s communism, it’s fascism, we’re part of a secret cabal to take down the president. i felt that we were coming together a few weeks back. i spend 90% of my online time now not learning how to take care of patients with this virus but shooting down conspiracy theories. doctors all over the country are having to spend their time and energy begging people to listen to those who actually know what they’re talking about”



people bristling at being asked to wear masks in public to protect the public health. where's their indignity at being asked to wear clothes?

The government can’t make people wear masks. It should be a choice. In a business though like a market it’s different, if they want you to wear a mask then you have to respect that rule and wear a mask.

Outside in public it’s a choice. If people don’t want to wear one they shouldn’t be forced to by anyone and if people get offended or scared by them then they shouldn’t go out in public. I will never wear a mask to just go for a walk at the park or around the block, that’s ridiculous.

The government absolutely can require citizens to wear masks during a pandemic. You have no idea what you are talking about.

I’m starting to feel like an epidemiologist lately, reading all these whackadoo statements by newly minted constitutional scholars going on about liberty and their rights and with each word proving they know nothing about the constitution.

Thank you

[dougthonus]

US is middle of the pack in cultural diversity:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_ranked_by_ethnic_and_cultural_diversity_level

The US appears much less diverse than I would have thought, but maybe my opinion is skewed from living in a far more diverse area of the US.

Also, it wasn't clear to me if 'white' is lumped in one category, and if you have say Polish, Italian, and Germans living in Chicago if they count as one non diverse group, or 3 diverse groups, or when someone shifts from being Polish to being American in the US.

probably so. i would also guess that that reduced efficiency levels off when you get to the level of millions of people, though. e.g. scaling from 5K to 100K presents more new issues than scaling from 5 million to 100 million

Orders of magnitude, in my experience, always make a difference. Both would cause real problems. I think China and India have huge, huge problems for that reason. The US would be next on the list with orders of magnitude problems, but wouldn't be as bad as those two.

[jmajew]

Good news...Today in Illinois we tested 17,688 people and of that we got 1,677 positive tests. This is the first time I have seen the percentage of positive tests below 10% in the state.

more available testing means that the symptoms don't have to be as bad in order for a person to get tested, though. it's difficult to suss out what's actually going on right now in terms of infection rates

The lower that percentage is the better. If the test more and that percent goes down that means the spread is getting less and less. They talk about the r naught rate and we are currently at 1. That means one infected person infects one other. The goal is to get that as low as possible.

[League Circles]

Social sciences often produce extremely flawed studies, IMO.

Nice of you to dismiss a whole branch of academics. Wouldn't have anything to do with the fact that they tend to be liberal/progressive would it?

Ummm, I didn't dismiss a branch of academics. I pointed out that the reality of data collection is such that often, especially in psychology, randomized samples are impossible, which really limits what can be concluded from them. Why would you think I'd be dismissing it due to average political persuasion among those academics? Do you think I'm some kind of right wing ideologue? I voted for Jill **** Stein for president last election and my first degree was in social sciences.

[League Circles]

US is middle of the pack in cultural diversity:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_ranked_by_ethnic_and_cultural_diversity_level

The US appears much less diverse than I would have thought, but maybe my opinion is skewed from living in a far more diverse area of the US.

Also, it wasn't clear to me if 'white' is lumped in one category, and if you have say Polish, Italian, and Germans living in Chicago if they count as one non diverse group, or 3 diverse groups, or when someone shifts from being Polish to being American in the US.

probably so. i would also guess that that reduced efficiency levels off when you get to the level of millions of people, though. e.g. scaling from 5K to 100K presents more new issues than scaling from 5 million to 100 million

Orders of magnitude, in my experience, always make a difference. Both would cause real problems. I think China and India have huge, huge problems for that reason. The US would be next on the list with orders of magnitude problems, but wouldn't be as bad as those two.

I had previously pointed out that when people suggest that more cultural homogeneity within a country leads to less efficiency (other things being equal), language issues are probably the biggest reason. If you dig a little deeper into the wiki link rather than just glance at dice's cherry picked examples, you can see linguistic fractionalization, which gets more accurately at what at least I was suggesting. And there, while you can't sort the list by that column and I'm not going to take the time to re-order it manually (it's alphabetic), it's easy to see that all the magically great nordic paradise countries, as well as Germany, of course Japan, etc all have linguistic fractionalization numbers far lower than the US. Far, far lower. Usually no more than around 1/5 of the US number. Then, basically every country that I glanced at that was more linguistically fractionalized than the US was a very poor country.

[Shill]

I agree with Doug's point. It sounds like it would be hard to quantify, but people in the social sciences create tests or polls like this all the time. If you've ever looked at a test to see if you are depressed or not, they ask you to rate your feelings on a number of questions, with either a number, or answers like "some of the time", "most of the time", "seldom", etc. You'd think that wouldn't produce very precise results, but when you compare how one person answers to how a million others have answered, you can more or less accurately judge that person's level of depression.

Social sciences often produce extremely flawed studies, IMO.

Nice of you to dismiss a whole branch of academics. Wouldn't have anything to do with the fact that they tend to be liberal/progressive would it?

Earlier in this thread, you said education was on the decline and I agree, but I disagree with the premise that it’s due to creationism being taught.

Religiosity is on the decline and atheism/irreligiousness is at an all-time high.

The STEM fields are currently under assault from social scientists, and K-12 has a host of problems.

Academic performance is decreasing/stagnant despite a constant increase in funding.

One of the problems is standards have lowered.

I have high school teachers in my family. They said it’s almost impossible for students to fail these days. They get promoted to the next grade with minimal effort or attendance.

[Shill]

If someone wants to say they prefer the American system because they want to get rich, and this is the best place to do that, I can understand that, it's logical. But to say that they prefer the American system because one like Denmark's wouldn't work here, I find that just a rationalization to keep things the way they are, and to pretend there's no way correct the tremendous inequality that exists here, or to do a much better job of taking care of the less fortunate.

I don't think this is rocket science- these other nations are running the experiment right before our eyes, and have been doing so for the past 50 years or so, and the results are pretty clear.

IMO, the promotion of the Nordic countries is disingenuous.

The reason I say that is progressives in this country aren’t actually advocating for those policies.

They’re not arguing for lower corporate taxes, they’re arguing the opposite.

They’re not arguing for deregulation, they’re arguing the opposite.

They’re saying tax the rich, but everyone pays high taxes there.

They’re arguing for open borders and universal healthcare, while the Nordic countries have stricter border controls.

They’re not arguing for a VAT tax (as high as 100% on some items), which is regressive.

They’re not arguing for oil companies to provide dividends, they’re calling for divestment from fossil fuels and the Green New Deal.

IMO, people want current day Sweden with the policies of 1970s Sweden that almost crippled their economy.

[rtblues]

I'm going to have to starting blocking some users in here...
Mind-blowing...