Next year: how much better can we be?

[payitforward]

Life is a bit boring right now....

...So, I just looked all our players' minutes totals & productivity. My goal was to assess how much better we could have been if the worst among those players hadn't played, but instead their minutes had been taken by other guys on the roster -- especially guys who came to us late (e.g. Napier) or who obviously didn't play enough, given their productivity (e.g. Garrison Mathews).

It's an interesting picture, & it's quite useful in thinking about how much improvement we might see next year.

By far our worst player this year was Isaiah Thomas. I think we were all hoping to see IT re-establish himself in the league after his injuries & time away from the game, but it didn't happen.

OTOH, Shabazz Napier came over when Isaiah was dealt, & he played very well. In fact, had Napier played his own minutes plus all of IT's minutes, the numbers say that we'd have had almost 4 more wins. Now, that's a little unrealistic, because had we started the season with Ish & Shabazz rather than Ish & IT, some of those IT minutes would have gone to Ish. Still, even taking Ish to 30 minutes a game, we are likely to have been 3.5 wins to the good.

Had Thomas Bryant played Pasecniks's minutes plus his own, we'd likely have been 1.85 wins better according to the numbers.

Finally, had Garrison Mathews played the 726 minutes which were played by C.J. Miles, Admiral Schofield & Jerome Robinson, once again we see a big improvement in results: we are up by @2.25 wins.

Overall, that's a huge difference: just under 8 wins better than we were: a record of either 31-33 or 32-32.

Now... it's obvious that this is pretty abstract; there's no point in criticizing it -- I know it's not a reality but rather is simply a model. But, it's still useful for several reasons:

1. IT won't be with us next year -- right away we are a better team!
2. We should by no means extend Pasecniks, & we should definitely re-sign Shabazz.
3. Give Mathews a regular contract & at least 1000 minutes next year. Let's see if he can maintain or improve. At the same time, back-burner Schofield.

Above all, what the above tells us (at whatever level of confidence, given it's -- as I say -- pretty abstract) is that we have reason to hope to be quite a bit better team next year! a) Instead of IT, we'll have John Wall, b) instead of Miles we'll have a R1 pick, c) instead of Mahinmi, who was also a weak performer overall (tho a bit better towards the season's "end") we'll hope to have another better performer (younger too).

This analysis surprised me; I hope it feels like a positive to you guys as well.

[dckingsfan]

Hey PIF, it seems like you could measure improvement on record, position in the east or how far we go in the playoffs?

I liked your assessment.

[dckingsfan]

Just under contract

PG: Wall, Smith is an improvement
SG: Beal (with less minutes), Mathews is an improvement
SF: Bonga, Brown, Robinson, Schofield are going to be better just with another season
PF: Rui
C: Bryant, Wagner is an improvement with just another season if they stay healthy.

[payitforward]

Just under contract

PG: Wall, Smith is an improvement
SG: Beal (with less minutes), Mathews is an improvement
SF: Bonga, Brown, Robinson, Schofield are going to be better just with another season
PF: Rui
C: Bryant, Wagner is an improvement with just another season if they stay healthy.

Won't get much push back if I agree with you & say explicitly that the place where the most team improvement should be expected is in Wall's return. Doh....

But, I am not in favor of predicting improvement from Robinson, Schofield, Rui or Wagner. Obviously, we hope for improvement, & one can find pro-forma reasons for improvement as you do ("just with another season") -- but, that doesn't mean it's gonna happen.

In the case of Bonga, Brown & Bryant, we've seen these guys play really well & improve a lot from rookie season to 2d year (maybe one should also say that of Wagner, come to think of it).

We should certainly hope for it in Rui's case -- absolutely!

But, Robinson & Schofield? I'll be surprised if either of those guys ever amounts to anything. Happily surprised, of course! But, I didn't think Admiral was an NBA player to begin with, & Robinson... let's just say that I don't get him, don't even get why anyone would have rated him high coming out of college.

I don't mean to be criticizing your take here -- after all, I could say more or less the same things about what I wrote. Yes, Shabazz played extremely well for us, but do I know that he would have played equally well for the whole season? Obviously, I don't.

Still... I'm pleased to have a sense that we could improve meaningfully next year. Of course, if we want to contend for a title, it'll take a lot more growth on the young end of the roster. Better have a good draft. If & when there is one!

[payitforward]

Related to this subject, the more I think about our trade of IT for Robinson, the less sense it makes to me.

Obviously, the Clippers had zero interest in Robinson -- they traded him for IT, then they waived IT. The trade saved them having to pay the rest of his salary this year. Instead, they took on the rest of IT's smaller salary.

So, why did we do them that favor -- & effectively take on an extra $9+m in guaranteed salary (we have to decide on his 2021 option by this October; I assume we'll pick it up)?

Why not waive IT & let them waive Robinson. They'd have had to pay his salary next year.

Whereupon, since apparently we really wanted a look at him, we could have signed him for the rest of this season with an option for next season -- at the @$1.5m > $2m that one could justify for a guy that had managed to wash out in less than 2 seasons.

Obviously, there was no competition for Jerome Robinson! If there had been, the Clippers would have gotten something for him. They didn't.

Tommy's made a bunch of terrific moves. This was very un-terrific!

[dckingsfan]

Just under contract

PG: Wall, Smith is an improvement
SG: Beal (with less minutes), Mathews is an improvement
SF: Bonga, Brown, Robinson, Schofield are going to be better just with another season
PF: Rui
C: Bryant, Wagner is an improvement with just another season if they stay healthy.

Won't get much push back if I agree with you & say explicitly that the place where the most team improvement should be expected is in Wall's return. Doh....

But, I am not in favor of predicting improvement from Robinson, Schofield, Rui or Wagner. Obviously, we hope for improvement, & one can find pro-forma reasons for improvement as you do ("just with another season") -- but, that doesn't mean it's gonna happen.

In the case of Bonga, Brown & Bryant, we've seen these guys play really well & improve a lot from rookie season to 2d year (maybe one should also say that of Wagner, come to think of it).

We should certainly hope for it in Rui's case -- absolutely!

But, Robinson & Schofield? I'll be surprised if either of those guys ever amounts to anything. Happily surprised, of course! But, I didn't think Admiral was an NBA player to begin with, & Robinson... let's just say that I don't get him, don't even get why anyone would have rated him high coming out of college.

I don't mean to be criticizing your take here -- after all, I could say more or less the same things about what I wrote. Yes, Shabazz played extremely well for us, but do I know that he would have played equally well for the whole season? Obviously, I don't.

Still... I'm pleased to have a sense that we could improve meaningfully next year. Of course, if we want to contend for a title, it'll take a lot more growth on the young end of the roster. Better have a good draft. If & when there is one!

I can't really disagree with any of this. I guess it would be "my hope" is that the young guys improve just with one more season under their belt. But one could also say that Brown, Bonga, Bryant and Wagner are what they are now... But I am a trajectory/momentum and a belief guy. I think that all four have positive trajectories and now believe they can play in the league. Those are powerful trends. So (a bit irrationally), I think one or two of them will have nice improvements next year.

I also agree with your assessment on Robinson and Admiral, one could even say that having Robinson on the roster is a bit of a negative if he gets PT over Bonga/Brown - but if I were to say that, it might erupt a storm - so I am not saying that. But I do think it would have been nice not to have either of them on the payroll. $5.25M is a nice piece of change. Our payroll would have been at $96M. That would be a bit more flexibility to address our needs.

If I were to look at a weakness/needs with this team as constructed, it would still be on the defensive end with a lack of defensive rebounding and rim protection. And also just general athleticism.

The draft is going to be interesting as will free agency.

[dckingsfan]

Code: Select all

Season   Age    MP     TS%    AST%   TOV%    3P%    FT%     DRB%   STL%   BLK%   WS/48   VORP
Brown
2018-19   19    730   0.487   14.9   10.5   0.319   0.681   16.6   1.4    0.6    0.039   -0.1
2019-20   20   1519   0.534   13.0   10.5   0.345   0.754   19.6   2.3    0.3    0.069    0.3
Bryant
2018-19   21   1496   0.674    9.3    9.6   0.333   0.781   25.1   0.8    3.8    0.178    1.5
2019-20   22    901   0.659   11.9   12.1   0.407   0.737   23.4   0.7    3.2    0.153    0.7
Wagner
2018-19   21    446   0.533    7.4   16.7   0.286   0.811   15.4   1.1    2.4    0.020   -0.3
2019-20   22    707   0.666   10.1   17.2   0.343   0.817   22.8   1.5    2.1    0.122    0.1
Bonga
2018-19   19    120   0.240   14.9   13.2   0.000   0.600   13.5   3.5    2.7   -0.059   -0.1
2019-20   20   1025   0.627    7.7   16.2   0.400   0.813   13.6   1.7    1.8    0.081   -0.1

[dckingsfan]

My case to be made with all 4 now is that none are a liability at the FT line. All can shoot the 3. None of them is a terrible rebounder (Brown is actually very good for his position). But if my point is that they are going to improve - what aspect of their game would improve (without another part becoming worse).

For Brown it would be a continued improvement in his 3 point shot and an increase in his ability to pass the ball.

For Bryant, it would be his defensive rebounding and shot blocking.

For Wagner it would be his 3 point shooting and cutting down on TOs (and not foul as much, not listed here).

For Bonga it would be defensive rebounding (he can't rebound like a guard and play SF or PF (especially next to Rui)).

[payitforward]

...I guess it would be "my hope" is that the young guys improve just with one more season under their belt. But one could also say that Brown, Bonga, Bryant and Wagner are what they are now... But I am a trajectory/momentum and a belief guy. I think that all four have positive trajectories and now believe they can play in the league. Those are powerful trends. So (a bit irrationally), I think one or two of them will have nice improvements next year....

I don't think you're being irrational at all in these cases. Brown, Bonga & Wagner were all better this year than their rookie years. That's evidence of the ability to improve. In the case of the first two, they are only 20 years old! There is solid reason to think they'll get better -- a lot better. Wagner too improved from his rookie minutes with LA to his first season as a Wizard.

In fact, taking another look at his numbers he may have improved the most of any of them! & that's despite committing 50% more fouls per 40 minutes. I'll post details in his thread.

...I also agree with your assessment on Robinson and Admiral, one could even say that having Robinson on the roster is a bit of a negative if he gets PT over Bonga/Brown - but if I were to say that, it might erupt a storm - so I am not saying that. But I do think it would have been nice not to have either of them on the payroll. $5.25M is a nice piece of change. Our payroll would have been at $96M. That would be a bit more flexibility to address our needs.

If I were to look at a weakness/needs with this team as constructed, it would still be on the defensive end with a lack of defensive rebounding and rim protection. And also just general athleticism.

The draft is going to be interesting as will free agency.

Robinson is definitely a negative -- & not "a bit" of one but a big one. Now... I'm sure someone will chime in with something good he did ("hit a game-winner; is a pretty good one-on-one defender"). Thing is that no one gets to play in the NBA who isn't a tremendous basketball player in some sense. So what? There 400+ NBA players who are more tremendous! Which makes him a bad NBA player.

As to Admiral, the coming season will be his one shot. I bet he is working his a$$ off right now -- he seems that kind of guy. He'd better come back able to hit an open 3, make his FTs, & foul a whole lot less. If so, he'll have a shot to stick in the league as a journeyman... maybe.

Other than re-signing Davis, I can't see how we'll be in the FA market -- I sure hope we aren't! It would be self-defeating. But, we do need to have an outstanding draft.

[Ruzious]

Notice - even in his less than 1 year as GM, Tommy's built an identity as being able to get something for nothing. But... some of those trades seem to cost money that didn't need to - Robinson and Miles.

Deep down, we know Beal and Wall won't be traded before next season, and we could be somewhat better than this season with the draft pick - but we don't even know where we're picking. Realistically at this point, we'll be trying to reach .500.

[payitforward]

We won 32 last year & (effectively) went 30-52 this year. If we won 41 games next year, that'd be a 37% improvement! A lot!

[payitforward]

...For Bonga it would be defensive rebounding (he can't rebound like a guard and play SF or PF (especially next to Rui)).

?
Bonga is slightly below average in defensive rebounds per 40 minutes. But, he's way above average in offensive rebounding -- overall he's a significantly above average rebounder for an NBA 3.

He also shoots 2s, 3s & FTs extremely well. His problem, like Wagner's (but not as bad) is that he fouls too much. To me at least, that would be the easiest thing for him to correct -- he's only 20.

He also has to be able to handle more usage without giving up much in efficiency. We don't need him to be a volume shooter, but right now he's taking just over 7 shots per 40 minutes. Need him to work up that part of his game.

Still... so far so very very very good out of Isaac Bonga!

[dckingsfan]

We won 32 last year & (effectively) went 30-52 this year. If we won 41 games next year, that'd be a 37% improvement! A lot!

I am going to choose the path of irrational optimism and say that the key indicator this season was our -4.0 differential.

I am going to say that by having Wall in the lineup vs. IT that -4.0 differential evaporates especially given that we have Ish coming off the bench and don't have to overplay him.

I am going to say that Beal won't have to play near the minutes that he was playing (primary ball handler) and that will also add to the positive differential.

And I will add that a couple of the youngsters will improve and that will also add to the positive side of the point differential.

Given that - and given that any positive differential would have put us into the 7th or 8th slots in the east (in 2020), I am guessing:

1) Playoffs
2) 5th - 8th seed
3) First round exit

[DCZards]

But, I am not in favor of predicting improvement from Robinson, Schofield, Rui or Wagner. Obviously, we hope for improvement, & one can find pro-forma reasons for improvement as you do ("just with another season") -- but, that doesn't mean it's gonna happen.

In the case of Bonga, Brown & Bryant, we've seen these guys play really well & improve a lot from rookie season to 2d year (maybe one should also say that of Wagner, come to think of it).

We should certainly hope for it in Rui's case -- absolutely!

I think there's every reason to predict improvement from Rui. As you point out, we saw it from Bonga, Brown and Bryant in their second year. Why not Rui?

I thought Rui played very differently after his return from injury. He played with much more toughness and physicality. It didn't always show up in the boxscore but it was there, and it was a good sign, imo. Rui may have grown a little less intimidated, a little less in awe of other NBA players at that point in the season.

I listened to a recent interview with Beal where he talked about was how impressed he was by Rui's work ethic. Hopefully, that will show up on the court next season.

The other guy who I'm eager to see get better is Brown. I see he and Rui as two of the key linchpins to Zards future. Troy needs to get physically stronger and improve his 3pt shooting. He also needs to make better decisions as a passer. In an effort to show off his slick passing skills, Troy made an awful lot of ill-advised passes last season. Troy often plays like he's a little unsure of himself. So I’d add self-confidence to those needs.

But, Robinson & Schofield? I'll be surprised if either of those guys ever amounts to anything. Happily surprised, of course! But, I didn't think Admiral was an NBA player to begin with, & Robinson... let's just say that I don't get him, don't even get why anyone would have rated him high coming out of college.

I’m for giving Robinson another year before deciding he’s a bust. (I'm sure you saw that coming, PIF.) And, yes, I’m going to say it: Robinson played solid man-to-man D in his short stint with the Zards...and on a team as defensively challenged as the Zards that counts for something. Where Robinson struggled was with his shooting, which was supposed to be a strength coming out of college.

While they are two very different players, I think Robinson has just as much upside as Mathews, and deserves a chance to prove it given the team's weakness at backup SG.

[nate33]

I am going to choose the path of irrational optimism and say that the key indicator this season was our -4.0 differential.

I am going to say that by having Wall in the lineup vs. IT that -4.0 differential evaporates especially given that we have Ish coming off the bench and don't have to overplay him.

I think this is the strongest reason for optimism. It is impossible to overstate how bad IT was for us. Replacing all of his minutes (and a handful of Ish's) with Wall will be a massive improvement, particularly if Sheppard is to believed when he says how much Wall has improved his outside shot. Having a defensively competent guard with size will make a massive difference because we can now switch defensively from 1 through 4.

The team had a point differential of just -0.7 in the 15 games after IT's departure.

Beyond swapping Wall for IT, I think it's reasonable to assume significant improvement from Hachimura and Bonga who have played just 1217 and 1145 career minutes respectively. Bonga in particular has plenty of room to grow not just due to skill development and basketball IQ, but because he can get much stronger and more agile. And Hachimura seemed to get better defensively (by eye test, anyway) as the season progressed, which is a good sign. Wagner also has played very few minutes and could improve significantly, but I'm a little worried that his extraordinary shooting this year was a fluke and whatever improvement he makes will be offset by regression to the mean on his shooting.

I think it's also reasonable to expect minor improvement from Troy Brown and Thomas Bryant. Both are pretty physically robust, so they don't have much upside on that end, but with just 2500 and 2300 minutes under their belts, they'll likely get incrementally better on skills and bball IQ.

We might lose a little bit with McRae gone. I don't think Robinson will replace his production. Mathews showed some promise, but in such a small sample size I'm not going to put much stock in it yet. He didn't really face the Scouting Report. Schofield is just a guy.

Beal and Bertans will probably stay the same. Ish might decline a bit, but if Napier is retained, it won't matter.

[nate33]

It'll be interesting to see what Sheppard does with respect to our lack of front court size and depth. With Mahinmi gone, they're going to want a veteran big to soak up minutes and get a few boards at the PF or C position. That guy can either be a center or a power forward.

A cheap, defensive-minded power forward who can play some small ball center would be ideal - a Taj Gibson type of guy. There aren't many available though. John Henson maybe? Or Nerlens Noel?

There are a lot more true centers available and they may come real cheap - guys like Willie Cauley Stein or Bismack Biyombo.

There's also the possibility that they will use the full MLE to go after a more expensive guy who will challenge Bryant for the starting role - a guy like Tristan Thompson or Serge Ibaka.

Nerlens Noel would be my target. He's really productive when on the floor, but not robust enough to log heavy minutes (which makes him affordable). And he can even play some PF in a pinch since we would be putting Bryant or Wagner alongside him and their outside shooting would compensate for Noel's lack thereof. Sign him to a 2-year deal for anything up to the MLE. Having that salary on the books will also be useful as ballast in a future trade.

[dckingsfan]

...We might lose a little bit with McRae gone...

...Mathews showed some promise, but in such a small sample size I'm not going to put much stock in it yet...

...Beal will probably stay the same...

Agreed with everything else - sorry about the cherry picking.

Agreed on McRae - he was a nice replacement for Beal for some minutes when he was healthy. Irrationally, I see the same from Mathews (sans the sample size).

And I think Beal improves a bit due to reduced minutes and having other scorer options on the floor (more energy to defend).

[payitforward]

...I am going to say that by having Wall in the lineup vs. IT that -4.0 differential evaporates especially given that we have Ish coming off the bench and don't have to overplay him.

I think this is the strongest reason for optimism. It is impossible to overstate how bad IT was for us. ...

Agree 100%. Not having IT -- all on it's own, forget about Wall for a moment -- would have made a significant difference in our +/- vs. the league.

But, I think the numbers I posted to open this thread are meaningful numbers: even without John, had Napier/Ish played all of IT's minutes, Bryant played all of Pasecniks's minutes, & Mathews played all of Miles's/Schofield's/Jer. Robinson's minutes -- at the level they all played in their actual minutes -- we'd have been @8 wins to the good. (...keeping in mind that whether that would have been practical & whether the better numbers would have stood up are separate questions).

Last year, going 32-50, we were -2.9 vs. the league. Wall played 1100 minutes & wasn't very good overall.

In 2017-18, we went 43-39. We were +0.6 vs. the league. John played 1400 minutes &, though he was better than he was last year, nonetheless he wasn't all that good -- nowhere near his level of the previous few years.

That year gives us an interesting data point indicating that the team might be able to be pretty good w/o John. Except that we had almost 8000 quite good minutes from 5 guys who are no longer here (Sato, Porter, Gortat, Frazier & Sessions). Porter's level of performance that year (& the previous one) will be the hardest to get from our current roster.

It would take a huge year from John to post 43 wins. But, I don't think a .500 season, or pretty close, is entirely out of reach if everything breaks well.

[payitforward]

...I am not in favor of predicting improvement from... Rui. ...
We should certainly hope for it in Rui's case -- absolutely!

I think there's every reason to predict improvement from Rui. As you point out, we saw it from Bonga, Brown and Bryant in their second year. Why not Rui?...

I meant to be specific about the word "predict" but probably didn't quite make myself clear. We don't have a "reason to predict." What other guys do can't give us that. But, it can give us reasons to hope that he'll improve.

I.e. it's not just that we hope he'll get better -- we hope everyone will get better! -- but that we have "reasons to hope." As a rookie, neither Rui nor anyone can know what he's going to face in the NBA. But, now he does. Rui wasn't particularly good as a rookie, but he showed that he can play in the league. & he has shown that he's a hard worker, he wants to get better, cares about it. Those are all important facts. & they give us reasons to hope he'll get better -- maybe much better.

...I thought Rui played very differently after his return from injury. He played with much more toughness and physicality.... Rui may have grown a little less intimidated, a little less in awe of other NBA players at that point in the season. ...

Maybe. In honesty, I didn't see a meaningful difference in his play. Above all, the things he has to get a lot better at didn't seem different. Court awareness, passing, 3-point shooting. Those are areas (along with others) where he has to improve.

The other guy who I'm eager to see get better is Brown. I see he and Rui as two of the key linchpins to Zards future. Troy needs to get physically stronger and improve his 3pt shooting. He also needs to make better decisions as a passer. In an effort to show off his slick passing skills, Troy made an awful lot of ill-advised passes last season. Troy often plays like he's a little unsure of himself. So I’d add self-confidence to those needs....

You will remember that I didn't think Troy was a very good pick -- I thought we could have gotten him (or someone as good as him) plus another player with potential.

That opinion didn't mean that I thought he was a bad player or going to be one. But... he's turned out to be better than I expected & more quickly than I could have predicted -- he's still only 20! So, I have to eat my words at least to some degree. Maybe there were better moves to make, but... there were also some that could have been a lot worse!

Troy was good as a rookie (didn't get enough PT, IMO), but he was a whole lot better this year. A whole lot. He scored more points, got more rebounds, & had more steals. His 2pt% went up, his 3pt% went up, his FT% went up, & his usage went up. He had a terrific year, and -- did I mention? -- he's only 20 years old! A child.

...I’m for giving Robinson another year before deciding he’s a bust. (I'm sure you saw that coming, PIF.) And, yes, I’m going to say it: Robinson played solid man-to-man D in his short stint with the Zards... I think Robinson has just as much upside as Mathews, and deserves a chance to prove it given the team's weakness at backup SG.

He is bound to get every possible "chance to prove it!"! The Clippers got nothing whatsoever, zero-zip-nada, for a guy they had picked in the lottery only 1 draft ago! But they dumped his cost. Now we're on the hook for the coming year, & it'll take a brave GM to let his cable slip this October, so we're almost certainly on the hook for 21-22 as well.

As to Mathews, I have no idea how much upside he has. What I do know is that he actually gave the team a reason to play him more. Robinson didn't really do that. OTOH, I hope he surprises me!

[Dat2U]

Who's our starting C next season?

If its Bryant with Wagner as the main backup were 35-40 win team even if Wall is at his best and healthy. Maybe could squeeze out a playoff spot in the East in that scenario.

For the Wizards to make any type of significant jump, the upgrade has to come defensively at the C position.