2019-2020 College/Draft thread (Part 4)

[3toheadmelo]

that is you to a tea for sure

gotta respect it

How is it relevant tho?

whats the chances that low ranked/recruited player from the NCAA making it to the NBA? I'm not saying he can't, Im just wondering the odds that a guy even gets a shot on an NBA roster.

1 star 2 star 3 star 4 star 5 star idc. Plenty of low ranked guys made it into the NBA such as CJ McCollum, Isaiah Thomas, Ja Morant, Courtney Lee, Matthew Delladova, George Hill, Damian Lillard, Stephen Curry, etc. Plenty of guys get overlooked. You know he's a real good prospect when the only thing to nitpick about him is if he's a 5 star or not

[RHODEY]

I mean those are mostly raw stats for a guy that played 24 minutes a night on a professional team. While most of the guys you are comparing him too played starter roles in college.

If you want to use that logic than Luka Doncic avg 12.8 ppg in his last year at real madrid shouldn't have been considered a top prospect?

Wouldnt it be more beneficial to compare his possessions and his efficiency in those possessions rather that comparing him with accumulating stats like ppg?

Luka showed his worth by carrying his team to the title. Luka's talents were on full display throughout the entire year. Killian Hayes is not Luka Doncic. Luka showed he was a killer before coming to the NBA, he was clutch and he was made for big moments and that's his worth in the NBA. Even now in the NBA Luka is not an efficient scorer but he is a high volume scorer, something that Hayes will not be. Luka barely cracks the top 50 in efficiency and that is acceptable because he's such an impact player. That won't be acceptable from Killian Hayes who just won't provide that type of impact and not even close to it. I mean by your logic Hayes is a better prospect than Luka and we both know that aint the truth. So that's why I'm saying these efficiency stats aren't going to hold weight when looking at the big picture and evaluating these guys properly.

no one is comparing him to Luka Doncic but my point still holds true. When evaluating overseas prospects that play professionally usually they don't get the keys to run the entire show or the minutes that college players get. Its just the way it is.

So my point of comparing PPG vs a US college player and a overseas young euro are not the same.

Luka also can be ineffecient because he is a great passer/playmarker. So he rightfully is given more opportunities with the ball because while his scoring is relatively inefficient his playmaking is off the charts.

Back to Hayes, he still had a 60% TS% so this idea that he isn't effecient seems a little crazy to me. And considering he is a plus playmaker is also a good sign.

Does he need to improve his spot up jumper shooting? YES
Does he need to cut down on turnovers? YES

no prospect in this class is flawless.

Repetition makes a fact seem more true, regardless of whether it is or not. Understanding this effect can help you avoid falling for propaganda, says psychologist Tom Stafford.

[HEZI]

Yea, agree. Efficiency can/will change with volume and def against better competition.

I just like how as Hayes has moved up, gotten more volume, etc, he has stayed pretty efficient. He has gotten much better overall. Nothing really to say he is an inefficient player.

I don't know if he'll be a high volume player in the NBA. I don't really see that so i think he can do a good job of picking spots, not forcing it, but be pretty efficient. Still score a decent amount though. I am buying his 3 point shooting.
Plays well in pnrs, run a team. Be a solid all around pg.

He will probably take a little more time but i am ok with that.

Here's what I'm looking at with him and it's not the numbers because it's hard to project numbers when talking about transition to the league. He's not quick, not super athletic, not very strong and relies more on finesse than power on his drives, very left hand dominant and nothing elite in the ball handling category either. He has one specific go to move for creating separation and that is planting left and stepping back with the right and moving right to shoot. That's his one go to move for creating separation and you don't need advanced scouting to know how to just take that play away. He is going to need a lot better combo moves to create separation on the next level. Then there is the shooting aspect, again he isn't reliable from NBA 3 point range, so whatever comfort level he has shooting is from the mid range. Not only off the dribble but on the catch also. Not to mention the energy he will have to spend trying to keep up with the elite NBA guards and there will be plenty of them on a nightly basis so what will his shot and efficiency look like then? Those are all things that don't give me confidence in believing he is going to be efficient in the NBA for a while.

Hes not super quick/athletic, but plenty of non super athletic/quick pgs have been good. He has good size and craftiness to help make up for it.

Every player in the draft has the same question about keeping up with nba players. If anything, playing against older pros gives Killian an edge in that one.

In general, Hayes shoots well off the dribble...
The step back, off screens, etc. That helps set him up for other moves with his size and craftiness. Its a translatable nba skill that he has really improved on. He can work really well in pnrs. Good passer off the dribble. They are pretty key skills for nba pgs.

He is def a work in progress and he needs to keep working (like everyone else). But he has made really nice strides in all of his game. Has a nice feel. Imo, worth banking on that he can keep getting better. Even if hes more of a 15ppg/8apg solid pg with decent percentages i would take that

I think we can do better and if that's what we will be content with when it comes to Hayes then isn't it better taking Haliburton who is a much safer bet to reach that type of production? This is what I'm saying, Hayes is nothing special and projects to be an average NBA guard with maybe slightly above average production if everything works out for him. Meh

[mpharris36]

How is it relevant tho?

whats the chances that low ranked/recruited player from the NCAA making it to the NBA? I'm not saying he can't, Im just wondering the odds that a guy even gets a shot on an NBA roster.

1 star 2 star 3 star 4 star 5 star idc. Plenty of low ranked guys made it into the NBA such as CJ McCollum, Isaiah Thomas, Ja Morant, Courtney Lee, Matthew Delladova, George Hill, Damian Lillard, Stephen Curry, etc. Plenty of guys get overlooked. You know he's a real good prospect when the only thing to nitpick about him is if he's a 5 star or not

Nitpick? Is it even worth evaluating him? There is a good chance he might still go to college especially if he doesn't get a guaruntee he gets drafted. He didn't even play that much due to an injury. I mean I'm being real the only reason I know he existed as a player is because you have posted his highlight videos...

He probaly would benifit from a year at college to see if he can improve his stock.

[HEZI]

Randle may very well be not on the team he should be no reason to not pick a prospect haha

Unfortunately he's on the team until further notice.

fair...but no draft decision will be based on Julius Randle

Indeed but it will make next season tough to watch again especially when all 3 guys are going to be looking to go to the same spots on the floor. But even when you take Randle out the picture, it's still bad with Hayes as lead guard because he's basically the guard version of Randle when it comes to shooting.

[RHODEY]

that same mental approach will fail you like a timmy or a dennis smith jr if your efficiency never improves but that's the risk you take. that it will improve and the player will also learn to pick his spots better.

that mental approah as a PG can be callenging if you aren't an overally effecient scorer because if you aren't a good playmaker (which Cole is not)...you really have to be effecient to warrant that USG.

Right there is a reason why cole is a consensus ~10th picks at best and dropping like a meteor... He' got crappy PG skills, kinda old. a bad decision maker , bad passer, shot happy/selfish, he's 's smallish with no length, cant finsh inside and is possibly injury prone. Not sure why someone would put "DSJ lite" on Hayes' level....

[3toheadmelo]

whats the chances that low ranked/recruited player from the NCAA making it to the NBA? I'm not saying he can't, Im just wondering the odds that a guy even gets a shot on an NBA roster.

1 star 2 star 3 star 4 star 5 star idc. Plenty of low ranked guys made it into the NBA such as CJ McCollum, Isaiah Thomas, Ja Morant, Courtney Lee, Matthew Delladova, George Hill, Damian Lillard, Stephen Curry, etc. Plenty of guys get overlooked. You know he's a real good prospect when the only thing to nitpick about him is if he's a 5 star or not

Nitpick? Is it even worth evaluating him? There is a good chance he might still go to college especially if he doesn't get a guaruntee he gets drafted. He didn't even play that much due to an injury.

He probaly would benifit from a year at college to see if he can improve his stock.

DX thinks he is the 2nd best international prospect for 2000 born players .. so yeah I would say he is def worth evaluating him. Plus he has all the tools and skills we want in a point guard. So why not? If he goes go college then oh well. We get him next year

[mpharris36]

Unfortunately he's on the team until further notice.

fair...but no draft decision will be based on Julius Randle

Indeed but it will make next season tough to watch again especially when all 3 guys are going to be looking to go to the same spots on the floor. But even when you take Randle out the picture, it's still bad with Hayes as lead guard because he's basically the guard version of Randle when it comes to shooting.

are we assuming he's going to be a sub 30% 3 pt shooter in the NBA?

[HEZI]

fair...but no draft decision will be based on Julius Randle

Indeed but it will make next season tough to watch again especially when all 3 guys are going to be looking to go to the same spots on the floor. But even when you take Randle out the picture, it's still bad with Hayes as lead guard because he's basically the guard version of Randle when it comes to shooting.

are we assuming he's going to be a sub 30% 3 pt shooter in the NBA?

Yes!

I don't think he even beats Frank for starters minutes next season. Frank is going to lock him up and cook him up in training camp, I'm confident in that and you know I'm not even that high on Frank

[mpharris36]

1 star 2 star 3 star 4 star 5 star idc. Plenty of low ranked guys made it into the NBA such as CJ McCollum, Isaiah Thomas, Ja Morant, Courtney Lee, Matthew Delladova, George Hill, Damian Lillard, Stephen Curry, etc. Plenty of guys get overlooked. You know he's a real good prospect when the only thing to nitpick about him is if he's a 5 star or not

Nitpick? Is it even worth evaluating him? There is a good chance he might still go to college especially if he doesn't get a guaruntee he gets drafted. He didn't even play that much due to an injury.

He probaly would benifit from a year at college to see if he can improve his stock.

DX thinks he is the 2nd best international prospect for 2000 born players .. so yeah I would say he is def worth evaluating him. Plus he has all the tools and skills we want in a point guard. So why not? If he goes go college then oh well. We get him next year

based on canadian high school basketball highlights?

[RHODEY]

fair...but no draft decision will be based on Julius Randle

Indeed but it will make next season tough to watch again especially when all 3 guys are going to be looking to go to the same spots on the floor. But even when you take Randle out the picture, it's still bad with Hayes as lead guard because he's basically the guard version of Randle when it comes to shooting.

are we assuming he's going to be a sub 30% 3 pt shooter in the NBA?

If it fits the narrative why not?

[mpharris36]

Indeed but it will make next season tough to watch again especially when all 3 guys are going to be looking to go to the same spots on the floor. But even when you take Randle out the picture, it's still bad with Hayes as lead guard because he's basically the guard version of Randle when it comes to shooting.

are we assuming he's going to be a sub 30% 3 pt shooter in the NBA?

Yes!

I don't think he even beats Frank for starters minutes next season. Frank is going to lock him up and cook him up in training camp, I'm confident in that and you know I'm not even that high on Frank

he literally shot 29.4% last year at 18 years old. You think he is going to get worse as he get older?

Usually shooting goes in the other direction.

[3toheadmelo]

Nitpick? Is it even worth evaluating him? There is a good chance he might still go to college especially if he doesn't get a guaruntee he gets drafted. He didn't even play that much due to an injury.

He probaly would benifit from a year at college to see if he can improve his stock.

DX thinks he is the 2nd best international prospect for 2000 born players .. so yeah I would say he is def worth evaluating him. Plus he has all the tools and skills we want in a point guard. So why not? If he goes go college then oh well. We get him next year

based on canadian high school basketball highlights?

High school footage, U19 footage, scouting reports, etc. Sounds to me you have nothing to debate about him besides nitpicking if he's a 3rd or 5 star recruit

[HEZI]

are we assuming he's going to be a sub 30% 3 pt shooter in the NBA?

Yes!

I don't think he even beats Frank for starters minutes next season. Frank is going to lock him up and cook him up in training camp, I'm confident in that and you know I'm not even that high on Frank

he literally shot 29.4% last year at 18 years old. You think he is going to get worse as he get older?

Usually shooting goes in the other direction.

Those are "Lance Thomas" 3's

He's gotta step back a foot in the NBA. You can't assume guys are going to be getting better from outside, look at DSJ and Mudiay

[mpharris36]

Yes!

I don't think he even beats Frank for starters minutes next season. Frank is going to lock him up and cook him up in training camp, I'm confident in that and you know I'm not even that high on Frank

he literally shot 29.4% last year at 18 years old. You think he is going to get worse as he get older?

Usually shooting goes in the other direction.

Those are "Lance Thomas" 3's

He's gotta step back a foot in the NBA. You can't assume guys are going to be getting better from outside, look at DSJ and Mudiay

I mean mudiay shot 58% in China from the FT line he was never a good shooter.

I believe there is a better correlation of a guy that can shoot 88% from the FT line and very well on "lance thomas 3's" at 18. He needs gain a little range on the 3...a lot of young players need to adjust to the NBA 3 point line. He was playing at a longer 3 pt line then college players were too.

[mpharris36]

DX thinks he is the 2nd best international prospect for 2000 born players .. so yeah I would say he is def worth evaluating him. Plus he has all the tools and skills we want in a point guard. So why not? If he goes go college then oh well. We get him next year

based on canadian high school basketball highlights?

High school footage, U19 footage, scouting reports, etc. Sounds to me you have nothing to debate about him besides nitpicking if he's a 3rd or 5 star recruit

oh well, if DX has him as the 2nd highest international prospect who was 1?

[HEZI]

he literally shot 29.4% last year at 18 years old. You think he is going to get worse as he get older?

Usually shooting goes in the other direction.

Those are "Lance Thomas" 3's

He's gotta step back a foot in the NBA. You can't assume guys are going to be getting better from outside, look at DSJ and Mudiay

I mean mudiay shot 58% in China from the FT line he was never a good shooter.

I believe there is a better correlation of a guy that can shoot 88% from the FT line and very well on "lance thomas 3's" at 18. He needs gain a little range on the 3...a lot of young players need to adjust to the NBA 3 point line. He was playing at a longer 3 pt line then college players were too.

No the distance is the same in college. Hayes is bad from the outside. FT% Is pretty irrelevant to be honest. Some of the best free throw shooters in the league are not good 3 point shooters. Jimmy Butler, Derrick Rose, Demar DeRozan, Tomas Satoransky, Malcolm Brogdon, etc.

[3toheadmelo]

based on canadian high school basketball highlights?

High school footage, U19 footage, scouting reports, etc. Sounds to me you have nothing to debate about him besides nitpicking if he's a 3rd or 5 star recruit

oh well, if DX has him as the 2nd highest international prospect who was 1?

Idk I cant find it. But I did find this from DX

Mane, considered a five-star recruit by scouting services that include Canadian prospects

I take DX's word here

[mpharris36]

Those are "Lance Thomas" 3's

He's gotta step back a foot in the NBA. You can't assume guys are going to be getting better from outside, look at DSJ and Mudiay

I mean mudiay shot 58% in China from the FT line he was never a good shooter.

I believe there is a better correlation of a guy that can shoot 88% from the FT line and very well on "lance thomas 3's" at 18. He needs gain a little range on the 3...a lot of young players need to adjust to the NBA 3 point line. He was playing at a longer 3 pt line then college players were too.

No the distance is the same in college. Hayes is bad from the outside. FT% Is pretty irrelevant to be honest. Some of the best free throw shooters in the league are not good 3 point shooters. Jimmy Butler, Derrick Rose, Demar DeRozan, Tomas Satoransky, Malcolm Brogdon, etc.

Brogden has a down year from the 3 pt line but is a career 38% shooter from deep. And most of the top FT shooters are good from distance.

Redick
Bojan
CP3
Booker
Middelton

I'm not saying he is going to be a 40% 3 point shooter. But I think its a way to premature to believe he is going to shoot under 30% from 3.

In 10 games in the euro cup he shot 39% from 3 and 91% from the line. I do think you are being a bit to critical on his potential to shoot from outside.

[mpharris36]

High school footage, U19 footage, scouting reports, etc. Sounds to me you have nothing to debate about him besides nitpicking if he's a 3rd or 5 star recruit

oh well, if DX has him as the 2nd highest international prospect who was 1?

Idk I cant find it. But I did find this from DX

Mane, considered a five-star recruit by scouting services that include Canadian prospects

I take DX's word here

Did they say #2 ranked canadian prospect? Because if DX rated him #2 that would mean they would have him higher rated than Deni, Hayes, and Poku who are all considered lottery picks.