Cuban Pete wrote: That said, NEVER look at 3pt% at the college level. If you want to accurately judge shooting among wing prospects, look for FT% and 3pt attempts per 100 pos (min of 8). All of the best shooters in the NBA have great FT% and lots of 3pt attempts. College 3s are different from NCAA and 3pt% alone doesn't translate into the NBA. IMO, shooting is 90% of the sport in the NBA. Team eFG% has a strong correlation to winning in the NBA.
The best three point shooters also tend to be good if not elite free throw shooters, but it doesn't always work the other way around, and there are always exceptions. Paul Pierce for example was a 60% FT shooter his freshman year. Joe Harris shot 64% from the line his senior year, 72% over his four years. Paul George, Kawhi, Kerry Kittles, Jason Kapono? Around 70% freshman year. Marvin Williams, Francisco Garcia, Ben McLemore, Robbie Hummel, Salim Stoudamire, Melo Trimble, and lots of other fringe prospects - they all shot 85% or better freshman year.
Logic follows that a player's ability to hit non-defended shots in practice or from the free throw line speaks little to his ability to hit shots in real game situations.
If I am going to nitpick you more - three pointers made per minute or possession tells us more than three pointer taken. Obviously. 3 Point % is clearly meaningful too, even if it means little without quantity. And while the college 3 might be shorter than the NBA 3, many if not most underclassmen lack the lower body strength they need to hit consistently hit the NBA three.
Lessons I've learned in NCAA statistical analysis: upperclassmen who can drain the trey are dime a dozen, underclassmens' stats mean more, particularly where they lack an NBA body; three point shooting is a skill that players often continue to develop throughout their twenties, as long as a prospect meets a minimal threshold, there is always the potential to become a good or at least serviceable three point shooter; and in between minimal and elite thresholds, I would actually look to rebounding (relative to size and context) to better determine a player's prospects as a shooter, for the simple reason that it tends to speak to a player's true potential.
Elaborating, there are skills, like shooting for example, that players continue to develop and refine throughout their careers. But rebounding is much simpler, it merely requires effort, focus, fundamentals, instincts, awareness, etc. A player who has those things is more likely to maximize his potential across the board.
