OT: COVID-19 thread #2

[Dresden]

I just hope the election results don't turn into a mess. Most states are going towards allowing mail in voting for anyone who wants to. Studies indicate that most likely, this won't favor either party, however, it could produce an inundation of the postal service, and it could make tallying the votes take longer than usual. So election results might not come out in the same time frame as we're used to, which could cause a lot of accusations of foul play, or result in a lot of disputes as to when results can be finalized. Mail in voting probably is the wave of the future though, so states should all be getting prepared for this.

[Dresden]

Another, much larger study shows Trump's favorite drug does more harm than good:

Antimalarial drug touted by Trump linked to increased risk of death in coronavirus patients, study says

Ariana Eunjung Cha and Laurie McGinley, The Washington Post Published 5:38 am PDT, Friday, May 22, 2020


A study of 96,000 hospitalized coronavirus patients on six continents found that those who received an antimalarial drug promoted by President Donald Trump as a "game changer" in the fight against the virus had a significantly higher risk of death compared with those who did not.

People treated with hydroxychloroquine, or the closely related drug chloroquine, were also more likely to develop a type of irregular heart rhythm, or arrhythmia, that can lead to sudden cardiac death, it concluded.

The study, obtained early by The Washington Post and published Friday in the medical journal the Lancet, is the largest analysis to date of the risks and benefits of treating covid-19 patients with antimalarial drugs. It is based on a retrospective analysis of medical records, not a controlled study in which patients are divided randomly into treatment groups - a method considered the gold standard of medicine. But the sheer size of the study was convincing to some scientists.

"It's one thing not to have benefit, but this shows distinct harm," said Eric Topol, a cardiologist and director of the Scripps Research Translational Institute. "If there was ever was hope for this drug, this is the death of it."

[MrSparkle]

well, that's never going to happen unless it's a centrist party that roughly splits the ideological difference between the democrats and the birthers. because the introduction of a 3rd party in a presidential race only serves to throw the election to the party with the most differing ideology. a right wing 3rd party would ensure victory for democrats. a left wing 3rd party would ensure victory for the birthers. there's a reason why we've never maintained more than 2 parties in the long term in the nation's history. there's a reason why bernie sanders and "the squad" run as a democrats. it's because of the constitution and our winner-take-all election system

4 party system with green/socialist, classic liberals, conservative and libertarian parties. Would fix alot of issues in the federal government. Would require a huge movement which isn't happening anytime soon I agree.

Multi-party systems open the door to dangerous minority parties getting elected, though like in Germany and UK, you have coalitions which ultimately cause the politics to ultimately function as a two-party system unless **** really hits the fan. When it does, and you have a lot of 'spark-plugs' from every direction, it opens the door to crazy rash and politically unstable moves like the Brexit referendum.

There are pros and cons, but the way our presidency/executive-branch works, we are worlds apart from European parliaments. Hell I hold an EU passport and I couldn't even remember the name of the German president. The fact is that European presidents hardly hold any power over PMs.

Our executive branch is an ultra powerful check on the government. So what do we do? Have presidential candidates with 27% voting numbers take control of the most powerful house in the world? No thanks.

Re-write the constitution? No thanks. At the present, both parties should figure out how to prevent people like Trump and McConnell from sabotaging a government and constitution that was very functional and relatively well-balanced for over 200 years.

[moorhosj]

Swap Trump for Obama, similar results, similar outcome. Maybe Obama would have done better, maybe he wouldn't have. America in general from the government to the people were not prepared for this. In the end, conservatives and the moderates are likely not going to fault Trump for any of this despite media and the liberal side pushing hard to point the finger at Trump and Trump alone for this mess.

This is absolute wish-casting. With an added shot at the "media and liberal side" just for good measure.

We have data that shows citizens like the job their respective Governor is doing a lot more than the job Trump is doing. Americans can make their own decisions on how he has handled the crisis and they have. The election is a long way off, but this is the state of things today. If you have data or polling to prove otherwise, please present it:

49 of 50 governors have better coronavirus poll numbers than Trump

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/05/19/49-50-governors-have-better-coronavirus-numbers-than-trump/

Donald Trump Trails Governors By Almost 30 Points in Coronavirus Approval Poll

https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-trails-governors-30-points-coronavirus-approval-poll-1503705

Recent survey data from Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin shows that majorities of voters in the states disapprove of the president's response to the COVID-19 pandemic.

https://www.newsweek.com/key-swing-state-voters-disapprove-donald-trump-coronavirus-polls-1504759

[Jcool0]

Read on Twitter

[MrSparkle]

This thing is only ramping up. Small wave hit a group of family friends who got back to working in the last week. Checked the numbers - we’re a day or two away from 100k while looking at soft re-opening.

I’m baffled at anybody who claims Trump has done a great job. 3 months of warnings/prep and 2 months of lockdown have been largely squandered while peddling fake cures.

[Dresden]

Trump announced he wants churches opened for this weekend, and will override any governor's orders to the contrary (which he doesn't actually have the power to do, and said so himself a month ago). I haven't heard a single doctor or public health expert who thinks this is a good idea, except Dr. Brix. She said that "I'm sure anyone who is sick will not go to church", minutes after talking about how people can be highly infectious yet not show any symptoms. People are going to get sick because of this, and most likely die.

[Dresden]

BTW, I wonder how AK and his dad are doing. Haven't heard from him in a week. Hope you're doing ok!

[pduh01]

There are some ignorant people out there I have even see on twitter still thinks this virus is fake unreal

[dice]

This thing is only ramping up. Small wave hit a group of family friends who got back to working in the last week. Checked the numbers - we’re a day or two away from 100k while looking at soft re-opening.

I’m baffled at anybody who claims Trump has done a great job. 3 months of warnings/prep and 2 months of lockdown have been largely squandered while peddling fake cures.

fake cures and fake curves. a month ago stuff like this was happening based on junk predictions that we would fall short of the 100K minimum that the scientists had projected:

[DuckIII]

Trump announced he wants churches opened for this weekend, and will override any governor's orders to the contrary (which he doesn't actually have the power to do, and said so himself a month ago). I haven't heard a single doctor or public health expert who thinks this is a good idea, except Dr. Brix. She said that "I'm sure anyone who is sick will not go to church", minutes after talking about how people can be highly infectious yet not show any symptoms. People are going to get sick because of this, and most likely die.

It’s hard for him to do anything that is the “most blatant” version of despicable things he does, but this is the most blatant example yet of him dangerously politicizing the pandemic to pander to voters.

As an aside, if you go back and look at my posts the day after he retracted his statement that he he could force the governors to follow his plans, I said then that his playbook could not be more transparent. He will claim he does not have control over the national response specifically so that he can use governors as punching bags to drum up votes. This is one of many examples of his so obvious plan to politically weaponize the pandemic.

I sincerely hope that the people who foolishly return to church at the behest of Trump (which is exactly what this is) stay healthy. But I expect churches to be at the heart of pop up hot spots in the coming weeks. It’s truly disgusting using people’s faith to endanger them in the name of political expediency.

Every day presents a new reason to lose faith in America.

[dice]

If there's one silver lining to this pandemic:

Trump could suffer ‘historic defeat’ in November: Oxford Economics

"The key variable in the Oxford model is a sharp economic contraction in swing states that fuels dissatisfaction with Trump and his fellow Republicans, and bolsters Democratic turnout. In the model, Biden, the former vice president, wins all the usual Democratic states plus seven states Trump won in 2016: Iowa, Michigan, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

The outcome would give Biden 65% of the popular vote, and Trump just 35%. Biden would win the electoral vote 328 – 210, the worst womping of an incumbent president since Jimmy Carter lost to Ronald Reagan in 1980. In 2016, Trump lost the popular vote to Hillary Clinton, 48% to 46%, but swing state victories gave him a 306-232 electoral college win. The Oxford model predicted Hillary Clinton’s popular vote win, but not Trump’s electoral college margin. In 18 presidential elections dating to 1948, the Oxford model got the popular vote winner wrong only twice, in 1968 and 1976."

Click bait garbage. Stop listening to so called experts and polls. They have no clue as seen with the 2016 election.

false. campaigns employ pollsters for a reason. the national polling was pretty close to actual results in 2016 and the state polling was at least close to the margin of error. fivethirtyeight weighted polling average going into election:

clinton +3.9 nationwide projection, won popular vote by 2.1

+5.3 in WI (lost by 0.8)
+4.2 in MI (lost by 0.2)
+3.7 in PA (lost by 0.7)
+3.6 in NH (won by 0.4)
+0.6 in FL (lost by 1.2)
+1.2 in NV (won by 1.5)

polling being off by 6.1 in WI is quite a large discrepancy. makes it more understandable why clinton didn't choose to campaign there

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-fivethirtyeight-gave-trump-a-better-chance-than-almost-anyone-else/

and even if the polling WAS way off the mark in 2016, you're basing your entire argument on ONE data point. why not reference all the prior election projections that were correct? i.e. pretty much all of 'em

when the weather forecaster says there's a 20% chance of rain and it rains, do you say "stop listening to these so-called experts. they have no clue. as evidenced by my dog being wet"? 'cause that's exactly what you're doing when you disparage polling experts based on trump winning despite having 20% or so projection that he would do so

Here are the facts:

- Every election is decided by the moderates

that's not what a fact is. and you're wrong on multiple levels. first of all, elections are determined by a number of factors, including BASE TURNOUT. secondly, based on how people self-identify ('liberal', 'moderate', 'conservative'), the last time moderates went for the republican was 1984. why? because the democratic party has significantly more members who identify as moderate! which is reflected in congress by the democratic party being being significantly more ideologically diverse than the republican party

now, you might say, "well, i meant that elections are determined by INDEPENDENT voters." also untrue. amongst independents:

-romney beat obama 50-45. obama won because democrats constituted 38% of turnout vs. 32% for republicans
-kerry beat bush 49-48
-ford beat carter 54-43

- A good % of moderates have not made a decision who they will vote for yes
- Everything could change before November

now those are effectively facts!

[MrSparkle]

There are some ignorant people out there I have even see on twitter still thinks this virus is fake unreal

Absolutely. The new trend is entering stores without a mask "cause it's your freedom."

[wolffy]

How does any reasonable person make sense of churches being able to reopen before everything else. Trump is really disappointing beyond even what little opinion i had of him already. Time and time again he takes advantage of his, quite frankly, dumb voter base, to their own harm. This exemption really defies logic.

[coldfish]

The south koreans have been excellent on covid-19. From a scientific perspective, they have lapped the rest of the world. Their publications are objective and are honest attempts to understand the disease and improve outcomes. When you look at western stuff, its often low quality, politicized or just plain stupid.

Regardless, we have learned a lot about how the virus spreads and the initial information was just . . . completely wrong. How this virus spreads is you get a group of people in an enclosed area for an extended period of time. One infected person is talking / yelling / singing / exercising and that is filling the room with virus particles carried by microdroplets. A large percentage of people end up getting it from that encounter. Those people then go home and give it to their family, who is also in an enclosed environment for an extended period of time. The whole 6 foot thing probably doesn't make much difference as being 15 feet away in an enclosed room is more dangerous than 3 feet away in open air.

The virus doesn't actually spread that easily. You probably aren't getting it from touching a door knob.

There are several takeaways from this:
- An environment where everyone is wearing a mask is probably very effective at slowing viral spread. Anyone who wears one knows how wet your mask gets when talking. If you were infected, those would be virus particles someone else is inhaling. This really needs to get published. If everyone in the US wore masks in public everytime, this would go away in a matter of months as the r0 number would be below zero (IMO, needs to be studied more).
- Encouraging people to congregate in enclosed rooms is a horrible idea. Restaurants, schools and churches should not be open. Neither should gyms.

What Trump is doing is mind blowing. Its not even politics. The policies of the last few weeks are political suicide. This is going to take off and the more you listen to Trump (ie go to church, don't wear a mask) the more at risk you are. He is basically going to hammer his own constituency. I'm stunned at the overwhelming stupidity. He might as well be telling his voters to take cyanide to stop the virus.

The next 8 to 12 weeks are going to be brutal. The spikes will likely start to show up in late June. It takes a few weeks for things to percolate.

The only good news is that a massive percentage of the population is ignoring Trump. This isn't a 50/50 thing and the media is sensationalizing it by reporting the data in a misleading fashion. People like Whitmer have very high approval ratings. Restaurant attendance is down 90% in places where it is open. The population will flatten this spike because it sure in hell will not be the feds.

[molepharmer]

...Regardless, we have learned a lot about how the virus spreads and the initial information was just . . . completely wrong. How this virus spreads is you get a group of people in an enclosed area for an extended period of time. One infected person is talking / yelling / singing / exercising and that is filling the room with virus particles carried by microdroplets. A large percentage of people end up getting it from that encounter. Those people then go home and give it to their family, who is also in an enclosed environment for an extended period of time. The whole 6 foot thing probably doesn't make much difference as being 15 feet away in an enclosed room is more dangerous than 3 feet away in open air.

The virus doesn't actually spread that easily. You probably aren't getting it from touching a door knob.

There are several takeaways from this:
- An environment where everyone is wearing a mask is probably very effective at slowing viral spread. Anyone who wears one knows how wet your mask gets when talking. If you were infected, those would be virus particles someone else is inhaling. This really needs to get published. If everyone in the US wore masks in public everytime, this would go away in a matter of months as the r0 number would be below zero (IMO, needs to be studied more).
- Encouraging people to congregate in enclosed rooms is a horrible idea. Restaurants, schools and churches should not be open. Neither should gyms....

fwiw - A few pages back I posted a link to an article which may be of interest. It describes a "dispersion factor" (i.e. clustering, superspreaders) with regards to Covid-19; cases occurring indoors vs outdoors, etc

Why do some COVID-19 patients infect many others, whereas most don’t spread the virus at all?
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/05/why-do-some-covid-19-patients-infect-many-others-whereas-most-don-t-spread-virus-all?utm_source=Nature+Briefing&utm_campaign=0f2156291a-briefing-dy-20200520&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_c9dfd39373-0f2156291a-45255538

Hopefully if they can minimize the clustering, retirement/assisted living and noscomial infections we wont see a huge uptick in cases. We may see spikes but not the dreaded second wave.

[jmajew]

The virus doesn't actually spread that easily. You probably aren't getting it from touching a door knob.

There are several takeaways from this:
- An environment where everyone is wearing a mask is probably very effective at slowing viral spread. Anyone who wears one knows how wet your mask gets when talking. If you were infected, those would be virus particles someone else is inhaling. This really needs to get published. If everyone in the US wore masks in public everytime, this would go away in a matter of months as the r0 number would be below zero (IMO, needs to be studied more).
- Encouraging people to congregate in enclosed rooms is a horrible idea. Restaurants, schools and churches should not be open. Neither should gyms.

What Trump is doing is mind blowing. Its not even politics. The policies of the last few weeks are political suicide. This is going to take off and the more you listen to Trump (ie go to church, don't wear a mask) the more at risk you are. He is basically going to hammer his own constituency. I'm stunned at the overwhelming stupidity. He might as well be telling his voters to take cyanide to stop the virus.

The next 8 to 12 weeks are going to be brutal. The spikes will likely start to show up in late June. It takes a few weeks for things to percolate.

The only good news is that a massive percentage of the population is ignoring Trump. This isn't a 50/50 thing and the media is sensationalizing it by reporting the data in a misleading fashion. People like Whitmer have very high approval ratings. Restaurant attendance is down 90% in places where it is open. The population will flatten this spike because it sure in hell will not be the feds.

My hope is that we don't see a spike and I still think that it is entirely possible that we don't. The goal of the entire flatten the curve was to keep hospitals from reach capacity. We have clearly done that throughout the entire country, with the exception of NYC area.

If we get lucky with the summer slowing the spread and the very optimistic tone coming from Moderna and the vaccine out of the UK happens, this could all be eliminated by next February. I heard a report that if the vaccine just has 40% efficacy with the amount of people that already had the virus we would be at herd immunity. I'm getting more optimistic by the day.

[coldfish]

The virus doesn't actually spread that easily. You probably aren't getting it from touching a door knob.

There are several takeaways from this:
- An environment where everyone is wearing a mask is probably very effective at slowing viral spread. Anyone who wears one knows how wet your mask gets when talking. If you were infected, those would be virus particles someone else is inhaling. This really needs to get published. If everyone in the US wore masks in public everytime, this would go away in a matter of months as the r0 number would be below zero (IMO, needs to be studied more).
- Encouraging people to congregate in enclosed rooms is a horrible idea. Restaurants, schools and churches should not be open. Neither should gyms.

What Trump is doing is mind blowing. Its not even politics. The policies of the last few weeks are political suicide. This is going to take off and the more you listen to Trump (ie go to church, don't wear a mask) the more at risk you are. He is basically going to hammer his own constituency. I'm stunned at the overwhelming stupidity. He might as well be telling his voters to take cyanide to stop the virus.

The next 8 to 12 weeks are going to be brutal. The spikes will likely start to show up in late June. It takes a few weeks for things to percolate.

The only good news is that a massive percentage of the population is ignoring Trump. This isn't a 50/50 thing and the media is sensationalizing it by reporting the data in a misleading fashion. People like Whitmer have very high approval ratings. Restaurant attendance is down 90% in places where it is open. The population will flatten this spike because it sure in hell will not be the feds.

My hope is that we don't see a spike and I still think that it is entirely possible that we don't. The goal of the entire flatten the curve was to keep hospitals from reach capacity. We have clearly done that throughout the entire country, with the exception of NYC area.

If we get lucky with the summer slowing the spread and the very optimistic tone coming from Moderna and the vaccine out of the UK happens, this could all be eliminated by next February. I heard a report that if the vaccine just has 40% efficacy with the amount of people that already had the virus we would be at herd immunity. I'm getting more optimistic by the day.

IMHO, what happened in NY is never going to happen again. You had a unique set of circumstances which are completely impossible to replicate. No testing, no masks, no awareness, densely packed city with lots of public transportation, etc.

What I see happening is a slow burn. We will see a wave of small spikes. 50 cases here, 100 there. Its going to get worse and then slowly better as more people get immunity and the impact of masks and social distancing slow it down. I don't see some huge second wave, barring a major mutation.

The whole thing was just so . . . unnecessary. By opening up a little too early and a little to irresponsibly, we are effectively wasting the months we spent huddled in our houses. A few more weeks and the virus would have been mostly gone and very controllable.

[Dresden]

The virus doesn't actually spread that easily. You probably aren't getting it from touching a door knob.

There are several takeaways from this:
- An environment where everyone is wearing a mask is probably very effective at slowing viral spread. Anyone who wears one knows how wet your mask gets when talking. If you were infected, those would be virus particles someone else is inhaling. This really needs to get published. If everyone in the US wore masks in public everytime, this would go away in a matter of months as the r0 number would be below zero (IMO, needs to be studied more).
- Encouraging people to congregate in enclosed rooms is a horrible idea. Restaurants, schools and churches should not be open. Neither should gyms.

What Trump is doing is mind blowing. Its not even politics. The policies of the last few weeks are political suicide. This is going to take off and the more you listen to Trump (ie go to church, don't wear a mask) the more at risk you are. He is basically going to hammer his own constituency. I'm stunned at the overwhelming stupidity. He might as well be telling his voters to take cyanide to stop the virus.

The next 8 to 12 weeks are going to be brutal. The spikes will likely start to show up in late June. It takes a few weeks for things to percolate.

The only good news is that a massive percentage of the population is ignoring Trump. This isn't a 50/50 thing and the media is sensationalizing it by reporting the data in a misleading fashion. People like Whitmer have very high approval ratings. Restaurant attendance is down 90% in places where it is open. The population will flatten this spike because it sure in hell will not be the feds.

My hope is that we don't see a spike and I still think that it is entirely possible that we don't. The goal of the entire flatten the curve was to keep hospitals from reach capacity. We have clearly done that throughout the entire country, with the exception of NYC area.

If we get lucky with the summer slowing the spread and the very optimistic tone coming from Moderna and the vaccine out of the UK happens, this could all be eliminated by next February. I heard a report that if the vaccine just has 40% efficacy with the amount of people that already had the virus we would be at herd immunity. I'm getting more optimistic by the day.

IMHO, what happened in NY is never going to happen again. You had a unique set of circumstances which are completely impossible to replicate. No testing, no masks, no awareness, densely packed city with lots of public transportation, etc.

What I see happening is a slow burn. We will see a wave of small spikes. 50 cases here, 100 there. Its going to get worse and then slowly better as more people get immunity and the impact of masks and social distancing slow it down. I don't see some huge second wave, barring a major mutation.

The whole thing was just so . . . unnecessary. By opening up a little too early and a little to irresponsibly, we are effectively wasting the months we spent huddled in our houses. A few more weeks and the virus would have been mostly gone and very controllable.

From my understanding, a few more weeks of isolation would not have eliminated the pandemic. Just to take CA as an example- our cases were slowly coming down in isolation- the curve was flattening and even moving slightly down- but they weren't taking a nose dive. People were still being infected, even during the shutdown. And as soon as things opened up, they were bound to spike again, whenever that was.

The key to stopping things was to test and trace. Testing (at least where I live, in SF) has gotten a lot better, but tracing is still almost non existent, as far as I know. that's what S. Korea did so well. They traced the hell out of the disease, and made sure anyone who was in contact with an infected person was isolated for 2 weeks.

I'm not saying opening back up is a good thing. Not at all. Again, to use CA as an example, our governor has been pretty smart about using variable criteria to gauge how to slowly, and carefully open things back up again. And hopefully, that will prevent a real big second wave. But in states like GA, that just said, "the hell with this, we've had enough", and where people don't wear masks and social distance, etc., I'd be surprised if we didn't see a big rebound. Maybe the warm weather will save some places, esp. in the south.

The bottom line is, if people don't change the way they live, and adapt to this new reality of living with the pandemic, there will be more outbreaks. Especially next fall/winter.

And yes, to your earlier point about large groups of people in crowded spaces for extended periods of time- that should be the #1 thing to avoid. It is almost inevitable that we will see many church goers infected in the coming weeks and months, which is very sad.

[coldfish]

My hope is that we don't see a spike and I still think that it is entirely possible that we don't. The goal of the entire flatten the curve was to keep hospitals from reach capacity. We have clearly done that throughout the entire country, with the exception of NYC area.

If we get lucky with the summer slowing the spread and the very optimistic tone coming from Moderna and the vaccine out of the UK happens, this could all be eliminated by next February. I heard a report that if the vaccine just has 40% efficacy with the amount of people that already had the virus we would be at herd immunity. I'm getting more optimistic by the day.

IMHO, what happened in NY is never going to happen again. You had a unique set of circumstances which are completely impossible to replicate. No testing, no masks, no awareness, densely packed city with lots of public transportation, etc.

What I see happening is a slow burn. We will see a wave of small spikes. 50 cases here, 100 there. Its going to get worse and then slowly better as more people get immunity and the impact of masks and social distancing slow it down. I don't see some huge second wave, barring a major mutation.

The whole thing was just so . . . unnecessary. By opening up a little too early and a little to irresponsibly, we are effectively wasting the months we spent huddled in our houses. A few more weeks and the virus would have been mostly gone and very controllable.

From my understanding, a few more weeks of isolation would not have eliminated the pandemic. Just to take CA as an example- our cases were slowly coming down in isolation- the curve was flattening and even moving slightly down- but they weren't taking a nose dive. People were still being infected, even during the shutdown. And as soon as things opened up, they were bound to spike again, whenever that was.

The key to stopping things was to test and trace. Testing (at least where I live, in SF) has gotten a lot better, but tracing is still almost non existent, as far as I know. that's what S. Korea did so well. They traced the hell out of the disease, and made sure anyone who was in contact with an infected person was isolated for 2 weeks.

I'm not saying opening back up is a good thing. Not at all. Again, to use CA as an example, our governor has been pretty smart about using variable criteria to gauge how to slowly, and carefully open things back up again. And hopefully, that will prevent a real big second wave. But in states like GA, that just said, "the hell with this, we've had enough", and where people don't wear masks and social distance, etc., I'd be surprised if we didn't see a big rebound. Maybe the warm weather will save some places, esp. in the south.

The bottom line is, if people don't change the way they live, and adapt to this new reality of living with the pandemic, there will be more outbreaks. Especially next fall/winter.

And yes, to your earlier point about large groups of people in crowded spaces for extended periods of time- that should be the #1 thing to avoid. It is almost inevitable that we will see many church goers infected in the coming weeks and months, which is very sad.

I think you misunderstand my post:

"A few more weeks and the virus would have been mostly gone and very controllable" does not equal "eliminated"

The virus was really going down nationally. Our frontline data is terrible. Deaths are lagging. Testing was really low initially so its not an apples to apples comparison. That said, when you look at ER visit data and the deeper stuff, the rate of infection was markedly lower than before and going down.

If we had waited until June 1, we would have been to the point where we can do 500k tests per day with a pretty small amount circulating. Add in masks, social distancing and you had a recipe for this being driven into the ground.

By opening up a few weeks earlier, we had hundreds of thousands more infections being tracked by less testing. Its a less controllable situation asking for more problems.

Regardless, I think people are making a mistake on focusing on spikes like what happened in NY is going to happen again. It lets governors like the Georgia or Florida ones off easy. They could literally do nothing right and still avoid the epic spike. People are aware and we are testing now. The viral spread just isn't going to be as fast going forward. When people predict big second waves or NY like spikes, they are setting up a situation where those on the "open it up" side of the equation can point out how they were wrong later.