Report: Orlando the frontrunner for NBA return (Update: and Vegas?)

[basketballRob]

There are waaaaaaay to many variables/scenarios that could play out that would just end it.

What if Lebron gets it in the first round and infects the whole Lakers squad? Boom, they're out.

What if we get to the finals and 5+ players from one team get it? No finals.

People bringing up the KD injury from last year and thinking it's the same when it's not. If one guy gets it, there is such a high probability that the team will get it. They'll be living, eating, training, playing in close quarters. It's inevitable if 1 gets it then multiple will and that is not the same as an injury.

We'll probably get to a point where the cases are near 0 for a while. Plus a good percentage the players may have antibodies.

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[basketballRob]

There are waaaaaaay to many variables/scenarios that could play out that would just end it.

What if Lebron gets it in the first round and infects the whole Lakers squad? Boom, they're out.

What if we get to the finals and 5+ players from one team get it? No finals.

People bringing up the KD injury from last year and thinking it's the same when it's not. If one guy gets it, there is such a high probability that the team will get it. They'll be living, eating, training, playing in close quarters. It's inevitable if 1 gets it then multiple will and that is not the same as an injury.

It's possible a good percentage of them have antibodies. Also it's no guarantee they'll have a vaccine for the next year or so. I can't imagine them cancelling this year and next year.

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[celtics543]

There are waaaaaaay to many variables/scenarios that could play out that would just end it.

What if Lebron gets it in the first round and infects the whole Lakers squad? Boom, they're out.

What if we get to the finals and 5+ players from one team get it? No finals.

People bringing up the KD injury from last year and thinking it's the same when it's not. If one guy gets it, there is such a high probability that the team will get it. They'll be living, eating, training, playing in close quarters. It's inevitable if 1 gets it then multiple will and that is not the same as an injury.

Is it inevitable though? Rudy Gobert got it and only gave it to Donovan Mitchell and he probably had it for a while before he was tested and people found out.

[AussieCeltic]

There are waaaaaaay to many variables/scenarios that could play out that would just end it.

What if Lebron gets it in the first round and infects the whole Lakers squad? Boom, they're out.

What if we get to the finals and 5+ players from one team get it? No finals.

People bringing up the KD injury from last year and thinking it's the same when it's not. If one guy gets it, there is such a high probability that the team will get it. They'll be living, eating, training, playing in close quarters. It's inevitable if 1 gets it then multiple will and that is not the same as an injury.

Is it inevitable though? Rudy Gobert got it and only gave it to Donovan Mitchell and he probably had it for a while before he was tested and people found out.

Christian Wood also had and they played the Jazz a few nights earlier. We are talking about all these guys living close together in the one spot for an extended period of time. Apparently these guys will be able to come and go as they please as well. I just find it hard to believe if one guy in a team gets it, he doesn't pass it on.

[basketballRob]

There are waaaaaaay to many variables/scenarios that could play out that would just end it.

What if Lebron gets it in the first round and infects the whole Lakers squad? Boom, they're out.

What if we get to the finals and 5+ players from one team get it? No finals.

People bringing up the KD injury from last year and thinking it's the same when it's not. If one guy gets it, there is such a high probability that the team will get it. They'll be living, eating, training, playing in close quarters. It's inevitable if 1 gets it then multiple will and that is not the same as an injury.

Is it inevitable though? Rudy Gobert got it and only gave it to Donovan Mitchell and he probably had it for a while before he was tested and people found out.

I think the NBA said many more tested positive but they didn't disclose who. It's possible half the league had it.

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[jason bourne]

Nah, they'll be swept by Milwaukee.

Unless you know who gets sent home.

[Nuntius]

I agree that this the kind of thing that the NBA and its health consultants are looking at. The NBA has generally responded well in this pandemic so I do expect them to do their due diligence. I also obviously agree that the situation in the two suggested places is better than it is in a hard-hit area like New Jersey.

That said, I don't believe that the situation in these two areas is good enough for games to be held there. According to your math, Nevada is in a worse situation than Germany. If we were to use Germany as the litmus test here, Nevada doesn't make the cut. Florida does make that cut but, as you mentioned yourself, there is controversy around their reporting of deaths from Covid-19. You decided to double their numbers due to this controversy but are we sure that this is enough? No, I don't think that we are. To be sure about something like that we'd need to do a comprehensive breakdown of the total deaths from Covid-19 in the US and see how many of these deaths have tested positive and how many are classified as probable deaths from Covid-19 (since it is those probable deaths that Florida doesn't count). We then could use that percentage to extrapolate Florida's actual number. Barring all that, though, we just can't be sure. As long as Florida doesn't use the CDC standard then their numbers are just untrustworthy.

But even if the numbers were comparable there is another issue at hand. The epidemiological curve isn't the same between the two countries. Germany's curve has been in a steady decline for more than a month now (closing in on a month and a half). That's not the case for the US as a whole and it's not the case for Florida or Nevada either. Active cases are either on the rise (Florida) or plateauing (Nevada). I simply don't think that it's safe to hold sporting events without a steady period of decline in active cases.

Also, if sporting events have to happen then I'd rather choose a state that is as safe as possible. States like Idaho, West Virginia, Arkansas, Oregon, Utah, Wyoming and Montana are all below the world average in deaths per 1 million (44.1 is the world average, Idaho is at 44, all the rest are lower with Montana being the lowest at 15). Obviously, I realize that not all of these states have the infrastructure to hold a month-long event like the NBA envisions but I'm pretty sure that some of them do (especially Oregon and Utah).

I personally wish the season would be cancelled, as I have lost interest with 2 months away. So I'm totally ok with things not continuing this year.

You're right -- a place like Montana might be ideal as regards the virus, but perhaps it's not so ideal as regards player comfort or media access.

Ultimately, the NBA will have to make the call on things. I'll watch if they play, even if, as I said, I'd be fine if they waited until next season to resume.

Yeah, I'll watch too, I'm not gonna lie. And you are right that it's the NBA's call at the end of the day. I hope that they make the right call. They have generally done a good job with Covid-19 so far so let's hope that they continue to do so.

[cold5]

Several people have mentioned concern about Florida but Disney world is removed from Orlando, and is a large private property with intensive security, tunnels, and intricate transportation. Also massive resort space. Orlando has not been hit very hard itself and my understanding is that it has greater access to testing as well. Disney could shut off about any traffic they needed to and reserve hotels exclusively for the NBA. It’s about as safe a place that they could logistically do this at, and Orlando is also removed from Miami and Tampa, which is where, I think the worst outbreaks have been (or are starting). So Disney world is really not the same thing as the state of Florida as a whole.

[Courtside]

Yeah, Disney can become a "campus in a bubble" logistically, which is what is needed. Players will NOT be free to to cone and go in terms of leaving the bubble, but would have freedom within the bubble itself, which after a quarantine period, would essentially be a virus free zone. If no one has it, and can't get it, then it can't spread among teams. They just have to be very strict about the bubble... no late night visitors, no exits... just buckle down and play and make everyone their money.

[basketballRob]

Shams was saying if a player gets it, they'll only quarantine that player, not the whole team.

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[HotRocks34]

Looks like the Vegas concept isn't dead quite yet. Remarks from Barkley yesterday on the radio:

https://sports.yahoo.com/charles-barkley-citing-tnt-bosses-is-100-percent-sure-nba-season-will-resume-003430625.html

“I do know this, talking to my bosses at Turner,” Barkley said. “We're going to play basketball. It's gonna be in Florida and (Las) Vegas, or just Florida.”

[celtics543]

There are waaaaaaay to many variables/scenarios that could play out that would just end it.

What if Lebron gets it in the first round and infects the whole Lakers squad? Boom, they're out.

What if we get to the finals and 5+ players from one team get it? No finals.

People bringing up the KD injury from last year and thinking it's the same when it's not. If one guy gets it, there is such a high probability that the team will get it. They'll be living, eating, training, playing in close quarters. It's inevitable if 1 gets it then multiple will and that is not the same as an injury.

Is it inevitable though? Rudy Gobert got it and only gave it to Donovan Mitchell and he probably had it for a while before he was tested and people found out.

I think the NBA said many more tested positive but they didn't disclose who. It's possible half the league had it.

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Oh, I hadn't read that. If that's the case though then that makes it even tougher to envision getting all the way through the rest of the season without anyone getting diagnosed.

[HotRocks34]

There was some talk earlier in this thread about whether or not the Disney World park, itself, would be open if and when the NBA sends its teams there (Orlando area).

Disney announced today that they want to re-open the park on July 11 (2 portions of it), with two other portions opening on July 15.

https://www.wxyz.com/news/national/coronavirus/disney-world-hopes-to-open-some-parks-on-july-11-says-it-will-require-masks-and-temperature-checks

Safety modifications for the virus will be made (social distancing, no large crowds, etc).

SeaWorld Orlando and Walt Disney World's plans were approved by Orange County and will now head to the desk of Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis.

So as long as the governor signs off on the plans (I guess), and if the NBA plays in Orlando starting in late July, then it looks like the Disney World parks will be open at that time.

[HotRocks34]

Also, Nevada's governor announced yesterday that the state was headed towards Phase 2 of its re-opening beginning this Friday, May 29:

https://www.fox5vegas.com/coronavirus/gyms-bars-places-of-worship-can-reopen-in-nevadas-phase-2-beginning-friday/article_7947d286-9fc8-11ea-a80e-d3dbb7f89da2.html

So if the NBA wants to have teams in Vegas, it probably can do that.

As I mentioned earlier in the thread, the UFC is having an event in Vegas this Saturday. And I believe several boxing events will be held in the city in early June.

[the sea duck]

There are waaaaaaay to many variables/scenarios that could play out that would just end it.

What if Lebron gets it in the first round and infects the whole Lakers squad? Boom, they're out.

What if we get to the finals and 5+ players from one team get it? No finals.

People bringing up the KD injury from last year and thinking it's the same when it's not. If one guy gets it, there is such a high probability that the team will get it. They'll be living, eating, training, playing in close quarters. It's inevitable if 1 gets it then multiple will and that is not the same as an injury.

Is it inevitable though? Rudy Gobert got it and only gave it to Donovan Mitchell and he probably had it for a while before he was tested and people found out.

I think the NBA said many more tested positive but they didn't disclose who. It's possible half the league had it.

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I heard that too after I questioned how few players tested positive. It's fair to say the nba is operating on much better info than we have. Perhaps they have relatively high immunity within their community at this point.