coldfish wrote:Dresden wrote:coldfish wrote:
IMHO, what happened in NY is never going to happen again. You had a unique set of circumstances which are completely impossible to replicate. No testing, no masks, no awareness, densely packed city with lots of public transportation, etc.
What I see happening is a slow burn. We will see a wave of small spikes. 50 cases here, 100 there. Its going to get worse and then slowly better as more people get immunity and the impact of masks and social distancing slow it down. I don't see some huge second wave, barring a major mutation.
The whole thing was just so . . . unnecessary. By opening up a little too early and a little to irresponsibly, we are effectively wasting the months we spent huddled in our houses. A few more weeks and the virus would have been mostly gone and very controllable.
From my understanding, a few more weeks of isolation would not have eliminated the pandemic. Just to take CA as an example- our cases were slowly coming down in isolation- the curve was flattening and even moving slightly down- but they weren't taking a nose dive. People were still being infected, even during the shutdown. And as soon as things opened up, they were bound to spike again, whenever that was.
The key to stopping things was to test and trace. Testing (at least where I live, in SF) has gotten a lot better, but tracing is still almost non existent, as far as I know. that's what S. Korea did so well. They traced the hell out of the disease, and made sure anyone who was in contact with an infected person was isolated for 2 weeks.
I'm not saying opening back up is a good thing. Not at all. Again, to use CA as an example, our governor has been pretty smart about using variable criteria to gauge how to slowly, and carefully open things back up again. And hopefully, that will prevent a real big second wave. But in states like GA, that just said, "the hell with this, we've had enough", and where people don't wear masks and social distance, etc., I'd be surprised if we didn't see a big rebound. Maybe the warm weather will save some places, esp. in the south.
The bottom line is, if people don't change the way they live, and adapt to this new reality of living with the pandemic, there will be more outbreaks. Especially next fall/winter.
And yes, to your earlier point about large groups of people in crowded spaces for extended periods of time- that should be the #1 thing to avoid. It is almost inevitable that we will see many church goers infected in the coming weeks and months, which is very sad.
I think you misunderstand my post:
"A few more weeks and the virus would have been mostly gone and very controllable" does not equal "eliminated"
The virus was really going down nationally. Our frontline data is terrible. Deaths are lagging. Testing was really low initially so its not an apples to apples comparison. That said, when you look at ER visit data and the deeper stuff, the rate of infection was markedly lower than before and going down.
If we had waited until June 1, we would have been to the point where we can do 500k tests per day with a pretty small amount circulating. Add in masks, social distancing and you had a recipe for this being driven into the ground.
By opening up a few weeks earlier, we had hundreds of thousands more infections being tracked by less testing. Its a less controllable situation asking for more problems.
Regardless, I think people are making a mistake on focusing on spikes like what happened in NY is going to happen again. It lets governors like the Georgia or Florida ones off easy. They could literally do nothing right and still avoid the epic spike. People are aware and we are testing now. The viral spread just isn't going to be as fast going forward. When people predict big second waves or NY like spikes, they are setting up a situation where those on the "open it up" side of the equation can point out how they were wrong later.
That's true, we won't see a situation like NY again. It's anyone's guess what this fall and winter will bring. We could very well see a big problem again in cold weather cities, unless precautions are taken. Masks are a key- hopefully they will be in good supply (really good ones, not just bandanas).
You are probably right about a couple more weeks being needed, in many places. These next few weeks and months will be very revealing about how opening up when we have is going to affect infection rates. Luckily the weather is in our favor. But here in SF, I can already hear people having parties (indoors), which is a terrible idea right now. And I'm sure that's going on all across the country. It could get really bad again, really fast. Not as bad as the initial wave, but enough to really cause a lot more illness and deaths.













