Community Thread LXI: The President We Deserve

[Gervin]

also we teamed up with a star wars vfx guy for these shows... man i think we could reinvent concerts.

Good to see there's still some OGs around here

[Danny Darko]

also we teamed up with a star wars vfx guy for these shows... man i think we could reinvent concerts.

Good to see there's still some OGs around here

Nice to see you bud! How's the 'Rona Off working in your neck of the woods?

Ventura County just because the first in CA to open and LA showed up in force... day 1 and people are already spilling out of breweries.

[Landsberger]

So....as the data starts to trickle out COVID is proving to have a death rate of .24% (CDC numbers). The Stanford researchers who were soundly discredited 12 weeks ago with their predictions were right is turns out with an estimate of .23%

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html

So if you test positive you have a .4% chance of dying from it. If you include the estimate of 35% of people who have no symptoms at all which might turn out to be low, that number drops to .24%. Testing of raw sewage at treatment plants around the US is showing that number may be as high as 50% that are carriers which would reduce the .24% to something like .15% or so. It also includes dubious State death numbers that have been found to have hundreds of deaths not related to COVID in them.

The initial projections that were used by the WHO and CDC have been predicting anywhere from 3.4% to 4.2% death rate. Orders of magnitude off.

It's not over by a long shot but the "experts" were wrong spectacularly it seems. Well... not in many cases actually. There were many out there who showed that the original models were too simple to be accurate but they weren't the experts that got listened to. My guess is that the effort now will be to still discredit them rather than recognize their work.

We put 35 million out of work and crushed about 150,000 small businesses for something about as deadly as the flu so far which in 2018 had a rate of death of .21% (about 64,000 deaths). COVID appears to be more communicable but keep in mind that an estimated 20% of Influenza positive tests aren't reported to the CDC and many of the deaths from the flu are categorized as Pneumonia. Every COVID test has been reported and many deaths attributed to it are showing to be mis-reported or even fraudulently reported because we made a COVID death more profitable than a non-COVID death.

In about a year we'll see that this was a truly bad thing but the overreaction to it was much worse. Already suicides, domestic abuse, drug overdoses, rape and child molestation have spiked anywhere from 30% to 80% above average. Families crushed by the economic outcomes will forever be changed and the trajectory of their kids lives will be changed as well.

[Dr Aki]

Wowsers

The point isn't that the disease doesn't kill as originally forecast.

The point is that the hospital systems doesn't get overwhelmed due to lack of ICU beds/quarantine rooms/PPE that could be going to other sickly persons suffering from other non-coronavirus issues.

Things like heart attacks, strokes, organ failures don't suddenly stop happening. The hospital system only has limited capacity to address all issues, when it overflows, then you get bodies piling up in the hallways being covered by hospital sheets like those early footages of Wuhan hospitals being overwhelmed.

Measures that work will look like we did all this bullsh*t for nothing.

People dying or hurting as a result of the economic downturn shouldn't be a reason to decry the health safety measures, rather a good reason to look at why social health is dependent on the flawed economy in the first place.

[Landsberger]

^^ No... the disease does't kill as originally forecasted. The CDC and WHO along with the UK used predictions that had between 3.4% and 4.2% death rates. What we're seeing now is .24%.... about 20 times lower.

Not sure about where you are but 85% of the hospital systems in the US have laid off staff over the last 12 weeks. Over 20 hospitals have closed. We built mash style hospitals in NY, Seattle, Houston and many other cities that never saw a patient. The hospital ships we sent to NY and LA barely saw anyone. The healthcare sector in the US is losing money at a $36B a month clip right now.

Why? Because all elective cases were canceled under an order from the Feds. Further when you scare the population literally to death no one will go to a hospital because there are COVID cases there. What's an elective case? Anything that you could walk in for including heart stress tests, diabetes testing, vascular testing for stroke... not a coincidence that all 3 of these are seeing higher death rates either.

Canada released their total numbers with demography and location of cases.... 80% of the deaths were in Nursing Homes. Further 82% of the deaths were in people over 78 with multiple existing conditions. NY actually forced Nursing Homes to accept COVID cases! They weren't alone either 32 States did. They actually put people sick with COVID in a place containing immunosuppressed people over the age of 75 who cannot leave. Think that one through....

[Dr Aki]

Well here's some food for thought, how were authorities to know whether it was a 3-4% death rate disease or a 0.2% death rate disease? In hindsight it's easy to say but at the time and it looked like the curve looked like it going to exponentially explode, would you err on the side of caution or do you listen to the best case scenario in an ocean of conflicting information and say, nah "it'll be fine?"

I can't say too much about hospital ships etc... But those were obviously sent to those cities, because that's where population centres are. Just because it turns out they weren't needed in hindsight, does it mean that the potential unknown of how the disease would propagate through the general population, that move was therefore unwarranted?

I'm not going to speak on NY because I'm not familiar with the situation there, but if they were, then that's something they need to look at as something they did wrong in the post mortem

Sure the health industry is losing a **** of money due to loss of elective cases, but that's just arguing for not suffering economic pain as opposed to limiting the spread of COVID-19. Current US stats is 1.7 million (5% of US) infected and 100k dead, even if some of those dead were mislabeled as COVID-19, what would be the death toll if it was just 2x the number infected? 10x the infected (50% of the US population)?

It just appears that you're arguing that shutting down the economy to prevent the spread of the disease isn't worth the economic pain. Tell us, what number of dead is acceptable to keep the economy going?

Again, if the measures end up working, it'll look like we all overreacted big time. Here in Australia, we have 7.1k cases with 102 confirmed dead. That's 0.14% and our government threw a Jobkeeper payment to 3.5 million people who lost their jobs to keep them afloat for 6 months, so that we're not all so desperate as to start offing ourselves/others. Australia shutdown on March 23rd.

Restrictions have semi lifted here in Sydney last week and some hospitality industries are allowed to see patrons again. Do I think it was worth it in hindsight? I work in a public hospital with immunocompromised populations and I very much do. I'm praying we don't get complacent and a second wave happens because with historical plagues, that's when the other 90% of deaths occur.

[Danny Darko]

I'm with Haseltine on this... Too many people gone in NY, Italy, and the world to not understand this thing is no joke and the people going full spring break mode this weekend are taking a lot of risks. Sweden is realizing herd immunity isn't happening either and meanwhile one of the most esteemed viral researchers in the world is saying 6 weeks of sanity and protocol and this thing goes away.

Read on Twitter

[Slava]

We're down to a 100 active cases here in Denmark thanks to four weeks of restrictions and then some common sense. Outside of the capital, the rest of the country is almost back to normal. The only issue is if they open the land border with Germany who also have it under control, they also have to do so with Sweden.

[Landsberger]

It just appears that you're arguing that shutting down the economy to prevent the spread of the disease isn't worth the economic pain. Tell us, what number of dead is acceptable to keep the economy going?

I'll just respond to this one.

My concern is for deaths... not just COVID deaths. The shutdown is proving to have had nominal effect and will most likely delay the natural spread and make it last longer than otherwise would have been the case. Data being released is trending in this direction.

Suicide deaths have spiked here in the US by about 40% since March 15th. The murder and violent crime rates are up. Molestations of children are up in some areas 80%. Domestic violence is spiking. Tell me, does this mean nothing to you?

Every time there is an economic break death rates jump dramatically.

Don't twist my words into a money thing.

Here are a couple facts in the latest data that I'll bet few know or understand.

Fact #1: 1.7% of the population in the US resides in long-term medical care facilities (LTMCFs) and total 5.7 million.

Fact #2: The residents of LTMCFs accounted for 38,800 or 53% of all COVID-19 deaths. The rest of the country, the 98.3%, have experienced approximately 34,600 deaths, or 47% of the nation’s total COVID-19 deaths. Of those deaths 72% are over the age of 75.

This data is about 2 weeks old. I'm sure it's still trending similarly. I'm also pretty sure that it's trending that way everywhere. When you overlay the average age of countries on the death rates you see a pretty strong correlation.

The "economic pain" results is deaths.... it's a proven fact that just about every economic downturn does... even small ones. Further, it effects children the most. The trajectory of lives is forever changed and families break up.

I think we'll see in a year that up to 50% of the population was exposed and that the death rate of those exposed will be in line with most other viral outbreaks. The data at this point is showing that.

What's truly chilling however is the power of fear. Apparently, It can make one death seem more important than others.

[Dr Aki]

It just appears that you're arguing that shutting down the economy to prevent the spread of the disease isn't worth the economic pain. Tell us, what number of dead is acceptable to keep the economy going?

I'll just respond to this one.

My concern is for deaths... not just COVID deaths. The shutdown is proving to have had nominal effect and will most likely delay the natural spread and make it last longer than otherwise would have been the case. Data being released is trending in this direction.

Suicide deaths have spiked here in the US by about 40% since March 15th. The murder and violent crime rates are up. Molestations of children are up in some areas 80%. Domestic violence is spiking. Tell me, does this mean nothing to you?

Every time there is an economic break death rates jump dramatically.

Don't twist my words into a money thing.

Here are a couple facts in the latest data that I'll bet few know or understand.

Fact #1: 1.7% of the population in the US resides in long-term medical care facilities (LTMCFs) and total 5.7 million.

Fact #2: The residents of LTMCFs accounted for 38,800 or 53% of all COVID-19 deaths. The rest of the country, the 98.3%, have experienced approximately 34,600 deaths, or 47% of the nation’s total COVID-19 deaths. Of those deaths 72% are over the age of 75.

This data is about 2 weeks old. I'm sure it's still trending similarly. I'm also pretty sure that it's trending that way everywhere. When you overlay the average age of countries on the death rates you see a pretty strong correlation.

The "economic pain" results is deaths.... it's a proven fact that just about every economic downturn does... even small ones. Further, it effects children the most. The trajectory of lives is forever changed and families break up.

I think we'll see in a year that up to 50% of the population was exposed and that the death rate of those exposed will be in line with most other viral outbreaks. The data at this point is showing that.

What's truly chilling however is the power of fear. Apparently, It can make one death seem more important than others.

Economic pain resulting in suicides and other social problems is a fault of a flawed economic system.

At what point do you stop blaming the safety precautions and instead start blaming the lack of a proper social safety net designed to prevent these issues of despair. Why is the economy shutting down, a reason for why these sorts of issues increase?

Essentially what I'm asking is why do you find it acceptable that these types of cases are increasing as a byproduct of a shutdown economy when there are clearly ways to avert or treat the root cause of these issues?

That aside, looking at Sweden's approach as an example, it appears they probably won't be avoiding much of any economic pain as part of their long term outlook despite not shutting their economy down.

I still believe you're trying to argue that economic pain and associated human cost of despair (and btw, I'll like to see the actual numbers, not increases in percentages for these) is somehow preferable to the raw death count.

At the moment it's 1.7 million positive cases of COVID-19, with 100k deaths, and it's done that in less time than a normal flu season.

The CDC has its report out on the cumulative burden of the 2017-18 flu season (a particularly bad flu season, with higher rates of infection than normal), had an estimated total of 61k deaths out of an estimated 45 million cases of influenza like illness. That's with the flu vaccine readily available to blunt the flu. And as we all know, the flu impacts the elderly and immunocompromised more so than your normal healthy adult as well.

I feel like you're under the impression that COVID-19 is just another flu type illness or other viral outbreaks and we've shut down the economy for nothing leading to these rises in associated and other crimes/issues of despair, even when the raw numbers paint a much more grim picture worldwide. There's very likely not going to be a vaccine by the time flu season starts this year either.

[Landsberger]

It just appears that you're arguing that shutting down the economy to prevent the spread of the disease isn't worth the economic pain. Tell us, what number of dead is acceptable to keep the economy going?

I'll just respond to this one.

My concern is for deaths... not just COVID deaths. The shutdown is proving to have had nominal effect and will most likely delay the natural spread and make it last longer than otherwise would have been the case. Data being released is trending in this direction.

Suicide deaths have spiked here in the US by about 40% since March 15th. The murder and violent crime rates are up. Molestations of children are up in some areas 80%. Domestic violence is spiking. Tell me, does this mean nothing to you?

Every time there is an economic break death rates jump dramatically.

Don't twist my words into a money thing.

Here are a couple facts in the latest data that I'll bet few know or understand.

Fact #1: 1.7% of the population in the US resides in long-term medical care facilities (LTMCFs) and total 5.7 million.

Fact #2: The residents of LTMCFs accounted for 38,800 or 53% of all COVID-19 deaths. The rest of the country, the 98.3%, have experienced approximately 34,600 deaths, or 47% of the nation’s total COVID-19 deaths. Of those deaths 72% are over the age of 75.

This data is about 2 weeks old. I'm sure it's still trending similarly. I'm also pretty sure that it's trending that way everywhere. When you overlay the average age of countries on the death rates you see a pretty strong correlation.

The "economic pain" results is deaths.... it's a proven fact that just about every economic downturn does... even small ones. Further, it effects children the most. The trajectory of lives is forever changed and families break up.

I think we'll see in a year that up to 50% of the population was exposed and that the death rate of those exposed will be in line with most other viral outbreaks. The data at this point is showing that.

What's truly chilling however is the power of fear. Apparently, It can make one death seem more important than others.

Economic pain resulting in suicides and other social problems is a fault of a flawed economic system.

At what point do you stop blaming the safety precautions and instead start blaming the lack of a proper social safety net designed to prevent these issues of despair. Why is the economy shutting down, a reason for why these sorts of issues increase?

Essentially what I'm asking is why do you find it acceptable that these types of cases are increasing as a byproduct of a shutdown economy when there are clearly ways to avert or treat the root cause of these issues?

That aside, looking at Sweden's approach as an example, it appears they probably won't be avoiding much of any economic pain as part of their long term outlook despite not shutting their economy down.

I still believe you're trying to argue that economic pain and associated human cost of despair (and btw, I'll like to see the actual numbers, not increases in percentages for these) is somehow preferable to the raw death count.

At the moment it's 1.7 million positive cases of COVID-19, with 100k deaths, and it's done that in less time than a normal flu season.

The CDC has its report out on the cumulative burden of the 2017-18 flu season (a particularly bad flu season, with higher rates of infection than normal), had an estimated total of 61k deaths out of an estimated 45 million cases of influenza like illness. That's with the flu vaccine readily available to blunt the flu. And as we all know, the flu impacts the elderly and immunocompromised more so than your normal healthy adult as well.

I feel like you're under the impression that COVID-19 is just another flu type illness or other viral outbreaks and we've shut down the economy for nothing leading to these rises in associated and other crimes/issues of despair, even when the raw numbers paint a much more grim picture worldwide. There's very likely not going to be a vaccine by the time flu season starts this year either.

I really try to not go by "impressions" and always look at the math of just about any situation.

So... death due to economic distress isn't the same as death due to a disease? Why don't you ask the people who are dying to see if they agree. Sociopolitical discussions aside I feel just as bad for a mom who commits suicide as I do for a guy who caught COVID at the grocery store and died. To jump to sociopolitical conclusions seems irrelevant.

If you're looking for the raw numbers the CDC publishes a mortality report each week. The raw data is available in many formats including Excel if you're interested in digging beyond the top line reports which are typically in percentages. Top line numbers are really not the pertinent unless the underlying situations are also overlaid for context. Suicides are up in terms to total numbers and % in 7 of the top 9 cities in the US by population.

You keep making the same misrepresentations of the data that a lot in the media are making when comparing this to the flu. Confirmed Cases and exposed populations are not the same. A flu season's statistics include extrapolations of infected not just confirmed cases. To compare the without that context is intellectually dishonest.

COVID will probably infect 25% to 30% (CDC estimates are even higher in some models) of the US population. It will either do it slowly if the lockdowns continue or faster if they do not(the focus is on daily counts of infected and death but this isn't what's important). That's about 100M or so of the population who will have it and it's already showing a .24% death rate. You follow the math here... a disease that is highly communicable spreads fast. they may be off 5% or more on the estimates on that but we do know how many people are dying of it (actual deaths will be lower once we sift out the bad data). So that math is showing that if you catch it you have a .24% (based on 25% population penetration) chance of dying. Now when you overlay the demographics of the deaths you find that your chance of dying of it if you are below 75 years of age is .011%(under 35 and it's .003). What's interesting in this is that it's more deadly than the flu if over the age of 75 but far less so if you're under 75.

Does is spread faster than the flu? It appears that it does.
Is it more deadly than the flu? At this point is't not and the majority of the population has a much lower death rate than the flu.

So... wider populations will be effected and more deaths will occur than a typical flu season however it's not statistically out of correlation with a typical to severe flu season in terms of death rate. The focus is on total numbers(and daily numbers) and not probability. This is why people play the lottery btw.... Just because 200,000 die of COVID vs 100,000 from the Flu doesn't mean one is more deadly than the other. The rate of spread and who it kills are the keys to understanding your actually chances of death from it.

Stanford, MIT, Penn and a few others have been showing models for months that have proven to be very accurate. The researchers connected to these models are not hacks either. For some reason their research doesn't make the news cycles while the same people who missed this thing by 30X are still being consulted.

I get shutting down in many respects. People expect safety at all times. Combine that with the power of crowds and you get what we have. What I don't get is the lack of direct release of pertinent data. There is enough out there now to show that people over 75 need to be isolated. That same data also shows that people under 55 are in little danger in comparison to other causes for death. People under 35 can carry this with no symptoms more than not so their exposure to the high risk group should be limited. Meanwhile... it's "you're killing people" if you don't have a mask on crap all over the socials and TV.

The most troubling part to me is that there were many (hundreds in fact) of very reputable researchers who's modeling is proving to be orders of magnitude more accurate than what the shutdowns were based on yet they get no voice at the table. The central model to this from the UK turned out to be complete garbage. Even Microsoft coders tried to prop it up but it finally collapsed under its own weight. The

On a side note... the company I work for has been hired by a national class action legal entity to create a national data base on COVID deaths in senior living facilities and adult day cares. If you think things are interesting now... just wait until they go after the money using COVID as the new Asbestos. They are trying to get into courts before the governments indemnify themselves and the researchers.

[Slava]

Am I the only one who thinks baseball is not going to survive a lockdown?

[hermes]

Am I the only one who thinks baseball is not going to survive a lockdown?

if it comes back first then it might be ok, because all the sports fans are desperate for something to watch

[Landsberger]

Am I the only one who thinks baseball is not going to survive a lockdown?

Baseball has been on a death march for 2 decades IMHO. When they didn't institute a salary cap or similar system they relegated 2/3 of the league to AAAA teams. I followed one of those forever (Reds) but there is no way for them to compete in the fiscal environment they have created.

On top of that you know they are in trouble when they keep changing the game year in and year out. I love watching good baseball but with a 9 team league it's become difficult. I haven't been to a game in 15 years and TV coverage is all about those 9 teams.

[hermes]

What's truly chilling however is the power of fear.

reminded me of this:

Watch on YouTube

[Slava]

Am I the only one who thinks baseball is not going to survive a lockdown?

if it comes back first then it might be ok, because all the sports fans are desperate for something to watch

I can't imagine what the TV money is in comparison to NBA & NFL but the lack of gate receipts and stadium sales itself would put a big dent in their revenue. They were also giving out these insane 8 year deals in their CBA and at some point liquidity is going to become a problem unless players start taking wage cuts right out of the gate.

[Slava]

Am I the only one who thinks baseball is not going to survive a lockdown?

Baseball has been on a death march for 2 decades IMHO. When they didn't institute a salary cap or similar system they relegated 2/3 of the league to AAAA teams. I followed one of those forever (Reds) but there is no way for them to compete in the fiscal environment they have created.

On top of that you know they are in trouble when they keep changing the game year in and year out. I love watching good baseball but with a 9 team league it's become difficult. I haven't been to a game in 15 years and TV coverage is all about those 9 teams.

Its also the schedule, which renders most of the regular season meaningless. I can't think of a game I found exciting prior to the wild card round and playoffs even 8 years ago when I was actually following the league.

The changing demographic and limited international appeal also stifles the reach of the game these days whereas basketball has a global audience and even the NFL has managed to generate fan interest in Europe.

[Danny Darko]

Am I the only one who thinks baseball is not going to survive a lockdown?

Baseball has been on a death march for 2 decades IMHO. When they didn't institute a salary cap or similar system they relegated 2/3 of the league to AAAA teams. I followed one of those forever (Reds) but there is no way for them to compete in the fiscal environment they have created.

On top of that you know they are in trouble when they keep changing the game year in and year out. I love watching good baseball but with a 9 team league it's become difficult. I haven't been to a game in 15 years and TV coverage is all about those 9 teams.

Its also the schedule, which renders most of the regular season meaningless. I can't think of a game I found exciting prior to the wild card round and playoffs even 8 years ago when I was actually following the league.

The changing demographic and limited international appeal also stifles the reach of the game these days whereas basketball has a global audience and even the NFL has managed to generate fan interest in Europe.

I think some teams will fall away... hell even the NHL is talking contraction and when we think about anything concerts etc that require almost no social spacing...
until people can stop being sloppy and undisciplined (so not soon) I do think we'll see weather tv only can sustain things.

AND- I really want to see sports where you can hear all the player to player talk without the damn crowd at least for a while.

[Kilroy]

I think the MLB will be fine. Like indicated... It's a different demographic, and just a different pace. Everyone seems pretty level-headed in the MLB. Up until we start talking about the miserable reaction to the sign stealing cheating scandle... That really hurt MLB's relevance IMO... They said the Steroid scandal would kill the MLB but it didn't and i think the league is stronger today than it was then.

To me the NFL is the league looking for a reason to implode... They're lucky that the timing isn't hitting their season. I know those teams print money, but so many of them are so poorly run and Goodell is such an idiot.

[Mamba Mentality]

2020 is going to make for one hell of a documentary. Crazy, crazy times.