imperial college of london study shows that the following states almost certainly have the virus under control (for the time being), with infection rate of others <1 for each infected person:
MT, HI, WY, WV, VT, ID, ND, ME - mostly states w/ low population density
these states PROBABLY have things under control (again, for the time being):
AK, SD,
NY, DC, MI, NJ, CT, WA, GA, KY, KS, RI, UT, AR, OR, NH, NV, OK
these states probably don't have a handle on things:
NE, MD, LA, PA, CA, NC, MA, SC, DE, MO, NM, VA,
FL, TN, MS, WI, AL, IN
almost certainly don't have a handle on the virus:
IA, MN, OH, CO, IL, AZ, TXsee pg. 8:
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/mrc-gida/2020-05-21-COVID19-Report-23.pdfestimate of % of population infected as of last weekend:
16.6 NY
16.1 NJ
13.3 CT
13.0 MA
10.8 DC
8.0 LA
7.1 IL
also suggested that we would quickly be in big trouble if we return to even 20% of normal mobility (page 15)