Trevor Ariza

[d-train]

After the season, Blazers can keep Ariza by guaranteeing his salary of $11M; or, waive him and attempt to resign him using portion of $9.9M MLE; or, keep him and trade him; or, waive him and save $11M

If we take 4th option, we can replace Ariza using $9.9M MLE, $3.9M BAE, or $7M TPE.

[GEE]

Here's the thing... it's $11 million for one year, and unless there's a trade that Olshey is pretty sure he can pull to bring us a sizable upgrade at the SF position, which I think is possible considering our assets, but still unlikely to happen, Trevor Ariza will be our starting SF next year. Plus he's been nothing shy of a blessing for us.

I don't think Olshey will toy with him. He has extreme value to us now and next year with Hood out. I also think there's a good possibility, someway, that he's here in Portland beyond next year as Hood's backup. Would be smart IMO. Restructuring his deal would be best, but I choose #1 because it guarantees him being back.

If we over pay a little now with option #1, who cares? The window is WIDE OPEN these next few years. Time to make power moves!

[Norm2953]

Likely no final decisions on Ariza, Whiteside and Melo will be made until teams know final numbers
on the cap.

[d-train]

Likely no final decisions on Ariza, Whiteside and Melo will be made until teams know final numbers
on the cap.

Blazers payroll is $98M for 9 players including our 1st round pick. So, we need 5 more players. 2 players will have minimum contracts. 3 players will be rotation players, probably Whiteside, Ariza, and Melo. Whoever these 3 players end up being, the budget is between $20-24M.

[d-train]

Here's the thing... it's $11 million for one year, and unless there's a trade that Olshey is pretty sure he can pull to bring us a sizable upgrade at the SF position, which I think is possible considering our assets, but still unlikely to happen, Trevor Ariza will be our starting SF next year. Plus he's been nothing shy of a blessing for us.

I don't think Olshey will toy with him. He has extreme value to us now and next year with Hood out. I also think there's a good possibility, someway, that he's here in Portland beyond next year as Hood's backup. Would be smart IMO. Restructuring his deal would be best, but I choose #1 because it guarantees him being back.

If we over pay a little now with option #1, who cares? The window is WIDE OPEN these next few years. Time to make power moves!

Very strong arguments, not sure I agree, but I certainly will not bet against this outcome.

[Norm2953]

Likely no final decisions on Ariza, Whiteside and Melo will be made until teams know final numbers
on the cap.

Blazers payroll is $98M for 9 players including our 1st round pick. So, we need 5 more players. 2 players will have minimum contracts. 3 players will be rotation players, probably Whiteside, Ariza, and Melo. Whoever these 3 players end up being, the budget is between $20-24M.

The final numbers are the league's calculations for the luxury tax line with the loss of revenue from playing
games without the fans. Every team knows their committed salaries but no team knows what the final
luxury line will be.

[Myth]

I chose waiand attempt to resign, but typically waiving a player in such scenario means they are gone. But losing him proably makes more sense than paying him that full contract despite how well he fit.

[d-train]

Likely no final decisions on Ariza, Whiteside and Melo will be made until teams know final numbers
on the cap.

Blazers payroll is $98M for 9 players including our 1st round pick. So, we need 5 more players. 2 players will have minimum contracts. 3 players will be rotation players, probably Whiteside, Ariza, and Melo. Whoever these 3 players end up being, the budget is between $20-24M.

The final numbers are the league's calculations for the luxury tax line with the loss of revenue from playing
games without the fans. Every team knows their committed salaries but no team knows what the final
luxury line will be.

The luxury tax threshold will be somewhere around $120. Of course, this is a very rough estimate. The actual number could be $4M more or less. However, it doesn't really change anything. At least not for the Blazers. Say the number is $116M. That just means Whiteside, Ariza, Melo, and all similar players around the league are going to get a lot less money from Blazers or any team.

Edit: $120M

[DeBlazerRiddem]

Ariza is the toughest of the 3. I think it depends on where the salary cap falls. Most likely the cap falls a little bit such that cutting Ariza gives us less than the MLE in capspace but not enough that keeping Ariza and using our exceptions puts us back into the luxury tax. If that is the case then I think we keep Ariza rather then let him walk for nothing, as looking at the free agency options you cannot replace Ariza for less than the MLE. Ariza would get the MLE so I don't think we could renegotiate with him for less than that.

[d-train]

Ariza is the toughest of the 3. I think it depends on where the salary cap falls. Most likely the cap falls a little bit such that cutting Ariza gives us less than the MLE in capspace but not enough that keeping Ariza and using our exceptions puts us back into the luxury tax. If that is the case then I think we keep Ariza rather then let him walk for nothing, as looking at the free agency options you cannot replace Ariza for less than the MLE. Ariza would get the MLE so I don't think we could renegotiate with him for less than that.

I believe we can cut Ariza and still end up in luxury tax if we use all of our exceptions. I don't believe the Blazers are going to be a luxury tax team next year, this I will bet on.

The next 8 games can have an effect on our roster next year. If Blazers can play dominant basketball, we will try to keep our players. If we can't gel as a team, Ariza, Melo, and Whiteside are 35, 36, and 31. Olshey might use our MLE, BAE, and TPE to get younger.

[DeBlazerRiddem]

I believe we can cut Ariza and still end up in luxury tax if we use all of our exceptions. I don't believe the Blazers are going to be a luxury tax team next year, this I will bet on.

Only if we keep Whiteside which I am not at all expecting us to do.

We are currently at 114 million next year if we keep Ariza. If we let him walk we have $103 million. If we use our MLE ($9.75) and our BAE ($4 million) we would be at $116.75 million.

The cap will drop but I don't think it will drop that much.

I think it depends on where the salary cap falls. Most likely the cap falls a little bit such that cutting Ariza gives us less than the MLE in capspace but not enough that keeping Ariza and using our exceptions puts us back into the luxury tax

My prediction was basically for a cap between 96.5 million and 112.75 million. Above that and we can cut Ariza and use the MLE or greater money to replace him, below that we would run into luxury tax by keeping Ariza and using our exceptions. But I am doubtful the cap falls below 96.5 million or many other teams would also be in trouble.

[skoharry]

I say we waive him and then sign someone cheaper who can do some of the same things. Some names that come to mind are Crowder, j.johnson, harkless, Batum, bembry, jamychael green, j.grant, t.craig, and Roberson. If I had to pick it would be between Crowder, Johnson, and Roberson.

[d-train]

Update on Ariza, he has revealed himself to be a player not committed to winning basketball. I suppose this should be no surprise about a player that played for 11 teams, including 2 stops with Wizards. Good people with Azria's talent don't bounce around that much. Blazers will waive him and make no attempt to resign him. We will use our MLE or TPE to get a player committed to helping the Blazers win.

[DeBlazerRiddem]

Update on Ariza, he has revealed himself to be a player not committed to winning basketball. I suppose this should be no surprise about a player that played for 11 teams, including 2 stops with Wizards. Good people with Azria's talent don't bounce around that much. Blazers will waive him and make no attempt to resign him. We will use our MLE or TPE to get a player committed to helping the Blazers win.

Lol, someone's coffee was a little bitter this morning.

Ariza is a veteran who has been around and knows his craft. It's useful to have those players if you want to win. While I would trade him at the drop of a hat for an upgrade and long-term solution at SF, if you don't have a long-term solution the next best thing is an experienced vet like Ariza.

Yeah it sucks he wont help us win in Orlando but lets not hurt ourselves out of spite. If Ariza will help us win next year then bring him back.

[d-train]

I always drink my coffee black and bitter. I'm too cheap to buy good coffee.

[d-train]

Ariza is done as a Blazer. He will probably sign with LeBron, Kawhi, Giannis, Harden, Joker, or Doncic for veterans minimum. Blazers probably would sign him for veterans minimum because that's no risk. He won't sign here.

[skoharry]

So we have MLE, BAE, and VM. I think these are our options for replacing Ariza, melo, Whiteside, and we need a legit backup PG. So we here are replacement options.
Replace Ariza with Crowder, James Johnson, Batum, Harkless, Carroll, or Craig
Replace Whiteside with Plumlee, Baynes, Biyombo, Noel, Robin Lopez, or O'Quinn
Replace Melo with Porter, Burks, Justin Holiday, Tim Hardaway JR, or Semi Ojeleye
To address an actual pass first backup PG who can score too, then we go with Dunn, Teague, Augustin, Reggie Jackson, or Shabazz Napier.
If I had a choice our team would look like this next year
Dame/Napier
CJ/Simons
Hood/Trent/Hezonja/Carroll
Collins/Johnson/Little
Nurkic/Biyombo/O'Quinn
Then we just fill in the rest with 2 ways and draft picks.

[d-train]

So we have MLE, BAE, and VM.

We also have $7M TPE, $2.34M TPE, $1.8M TPE, bird rights to re-sign Whiteside, and an exception to sign our 1st round pick and every 1st round pick we acquire. We will be hard capped at the Apron if we use our non-taxpayer MLE, BAE, or do a sign & trade.

[GEE]

I really liked our chances in these playoffs... until I heard that Ariza is one of the few that won't participate in Orlando. I honestly don't care why. The fact is that we are NOW in HUGE need of a short-term (or long) SF, because not having him this year WILL affect the likelihood of his $11 million getting picked up. Too bad. I really hoped to have him here long-term. I thought he was the perfect fit at SF both short-term, and long-term as the backup, but, again, I don't think we'll ever see him in the Red & Black again.

[GEE]

So we have MLE, BAE, and VM.

We also have $7M TPE, $2.34M TPE, $1.8M TPE, bird rights to re-sign Whiteside, and an exception to sign our 1st round pick and every 1st round pick we acquire. We will be hard capped at the Apron if we use our non-taxpayer MLE, BAE, or do a sign & trade.

D .... I have no idea what we do now, but I know we have tons of options.

First, we better resign Whiteside with a Nurkic-like contract. He's easily the best FA if you added him to that list of scrubs previously mentioned. Next is replacing Ariza. Interesting that you mention S&T. I wonder if Ariza is an option for this? Can you combine an S&T, (for instance: to the Lakers for Kuzma), and use a TPE? I would also consider one of, Trent or Little as a trade chip. Likely Little, as Trent seems perfect as a 6th-man. I also like the idea of Melo alot more now with Ariza likely sent packing.

A slimmed-down Kuzma could be that perfect addition, that I hope we add long-term, to the group we already have. If it were up to me, this seems very achievable in the real world. A scary, ferocious pack of Dogs. DOGS I tell ya!

Dame / Simons
CJ / Trent
Hood / Kuzma
Collins / Melo
Nurkic / Whiteside