Coronavirus/COVID-19, Thread 2

[Parliament10]

Louder for the folks in the back.

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This isn't Live, is it?
I see No Masks, and No Social Distancing.

This must be from before the COVID-19 Lockdown. Right?

From yesterday or the other day.

Markazi is there reporting.

https://sports.yahoo.com/markazi-las-vegas-open-again-033004631.html

This is Morons-ville.
I see why we're playing in Orlando, and NOT Las Vegas.

[canman1971]

This isn't Live, is it?
I see No Masks, and No Social Distancing.

This must be from before the COVID-19 Lockdown. Right?

From yesterday or the other day.

Markazi is there reporting.

https://sports.yahoo.com/markazi-las-vegas-open-again-033004631.html

This is Morons-ville.
I see why we're playing in Orlando, and NOT Las Vegas.

And another reason why this isn't going away anytime soon. People are too self-involved. Sad state of affairs.

[ConstableGeneva]

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[claycarver]

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please, dear God, don't post ish like this. I've got to figure out how to sleep with this in my head.

[ConstableGeneva]

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See thread: Mentioned California, Texas, Arizona, and a couple of other states being in the same boat.

[djFan71]

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See thread: Mentioned California, Texas, Arizona, and a couple of other states being in the same boat.

I think graphs of deaths are more reliable than testing, though they obviously lag a few weeks. But they aren't influenced by amount of testing done. They seem to be creeping up as well, though the magnitude is tough to say.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/florida/

The biggest day in the weekly cycle is clearly trending upwards - starting pretty much 2-3 weeks after reopening. But the other days seems mostly flat, maybe a slightly upward trend on the 2nd highest day. Overall death rate seem to be on the rise. Unfortunately, if the testing graph holds true, those spikes seem like they'll keep going up and look pretty bad in another week or 2.

[soxfan2003]

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See thread: Mentioned California, Texas, Arizona, and a couple of other states being in the same boat.

I think graphs of deaths are more reliable than testing, though they obviously lag a few weeks. But they aren't influenced by amount of testing done. They seem to be creeping up as well, though the magnitude is tough to say.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/florida/

The biggest day in the weekly cycle is clearly trending upwards - starting pretty much 2-3 weeks after reopening. But the other days seems mostly flat, maybe a slightly upward trend on the 2nd highest day. Overall death rate seem to be on the rise. Unfortunately, if the testing graph holds true, those spikes seem like they'll keep going up and look pretty bad in another week or 2.

I read the infection rate has been either going down or holding steady which is a good sign for Florida. Increased cases may be a result from the fact that Florida has continued to open up more testing facilities and is testing more than ever before.

The deaths in Florida over the past month are modestly down from their peak but are not changing that much in the last 3 weeks or so. While not great news, this is relatively good news for Florida considering the size of the population and age of the population and the obesity epidemic in America and the fact that they never really came close to experiencing what NY/NJ/MA experienced.

A key for Florida may be deaths/infections in other parts of USA heading down rather drastically...less imported cases for them.

The next two months should give epidemiologist even more data of how seasonal this virus is.

[djFan71]

Spoiler:

Read on Twitter

See thread: Mentioned California, Texas, Arizona, and a couple of other states being in the same boat.

I think graphs of deaths are more reliable than testing, though they obviously lag a few weeks. But they aren't influenced by amount of testing done. They seem to be creeping up as well, though the magnitude is tough to say.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/florida/

The biggest day in the weekly cycle is clearly trending upwards - starting pretty much 2-3 weeks after reopening. But the other days seems mostly flat, maybe a slightly upward trend on the 2nd highest day. Overall death rate seem to be on the rise. Unfortunately, if the testing graph holds true, those spikes seem like they'll keep going up and look pretty bad in another week or 2.

I read the infection rate has been either going down or holding steady which is a good sign for Florida. Increased cases may be a result from the fact that Florida has continued to open up more testing facilities and is testing more than ever before.

The deaths in Florida over the past month are modestly down from their peak but are not changing that much in the last 3 weeks or so. While not great news, this is relatively good news for Florida considering the size of the population and age of the population and the obesity epidemic in America and the fact that they never really came close to experiencing what NY/NJ/MA experienced.

A key for Florida may be deaths/infections in other parts of USA heading down rather drastically...less imported cases for them.

The next two months should give epidemiologist even more data of how seasonal this virus is.

Yeah, It's just that weekly high day seems to be trending up again

5/12: 47
5/19: 55
5/27: 61
6/2: 70 - 3rd highest day recorded.

The non-peak days of the week seem pretty stable, or even lower, though. Makes it tough to really glean much from it. Could be blips in reporting the deaths, or whatever on those days. I think the only thing you can really say is the data doesn't show a huge disaster in re-opening after 3 weeks where it could have (starting 2 weeks after to account for lag). Just gotta hope that holds.

[claycarver]

I think graphs of deaths are more reliable than testing, though they obviously lag a few weeks. But they aren't influenced by amount of testing done. They seem to be creeping up as well, though the magnitude is tough to say.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/florida/

The biggest day in the weekly cycle is clearly trending upwards - starting pretty much 2-3 weeks after reopening. But the other days seems mostly flat, maybe a slightly upward trend on the 2nd highest day. Overall death rate seem to be on the rise. Unfortunately, if the testing graph holds true, those spikes seem like they'll keep going up and look pretty bad in another week or 2.

I read the infection rate has been either going down or holding steady which is a good sign for Florida. Increased cases may be a result from the fact that Florida has continued to open up more testing facilities and is testing more than ever before.

The deaths in Florida over the past month are modestly down from their peak but are not changing that much in the last 3 weeks or so. While not great news, this is relatively good news for Florida considering the size of the population and age of the population and the obesity epidemic in America and the fact that they never really came close to experiencing what NY/NJ/MA experienced.

A key for Florida may be deaths/infections in other parts of USA heading down rather drastically...less imported cases for them.

The next two months should give epidemiologist even more data of how seasonal this virus is.

Yeah, It's just that weekly high day seems to be trending up again

5/12: 47
5/19: 55
5/27: 61
6/2: 70 - 3rd highest day recorded.

The non-peak days of the week seem pretty stable, or even lower, though. Makes it tough to really glean much from it. Could be blips in reporting the deaths, or whatever on those days. I think the only thing you can really say is the data doesn't show a huge disaster in re-opening after 3 weeks where it could have (starting 2 weeks after to account for lag). Just gotta hope that holds.

Florida is a big state with a large elderly population...20% over age 65 compared to 15% nationwide. The fact that we're talking about a daily death toll holding steady under 40 a day is freaking remarkable.

I think a more more helpful trend for a state like Florida, though lagging a couple of weeks behind, is to stay on top of Florida's overall death toll. Because if 40 extra people in Florida are dying from covid but they're still experiencing 50 FEWER deaths daily from all causes than they should, then covid isn't really making a dent there...There's just a shift in causes. New data from the DCD for the week ending May 30 should come out tomorrow and I'm really interested to see if the dramatic decrease in deaths can continue.

[jmr07019]

Have you heard the joke about how to cure the pandemic? It’s a riot.

[threrf23]

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[floyd]

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/06/10/873473805/u-s-hits-2-million-coronavirus-cases-as-many-states-see-a-surge-of-patients

[ConstableGeneva]

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Is it really that big of an ask for some people?

[Big Joke Line]

The Florida thing is a complete fabrication. They literally opened up drive through testing all over the state. Use common sense people - week 1 has 1,000 tests and 100 people are positive. Week 2 has 100,000 tests of course more than 100 people are going to be positive. (Not actual numbers - just illustrating a point)

[Fencer reregistered]

This isn't Live, is it?
I see No Masks, and No Social Distancing.

This must be from before the COVID-19 Lockdown. Right?

From yesterday or the other day.

Markazi is there reporting.

https://sports.yahoo.com/markazi-las-vegas-open-again-033004631.html

This is Morons-ville.
I see why we're playing in Orlando, and NOT Las Vegas.

Customers in Las Vegas demonstrate poor understanding of risk and probabiity.

I'm shocked, shocked.

[ConstableGeneva]

The Florida thing is a complete fabrication. They literally opened up drive through testing all over the state. Use common sense people - week 1 has 1,000 tests and 100 people are positive. Week 2 has 100,000 tests of course more than 100 people are going to be positive. (Not actual numbers - just illustrating a point)

People saying cases are going up are not just basing it on raw data. Positive cases relative to total individuals tested have gone up since memorial day weekend. Obviously not as bad as in March and April but positivity rate is going up again and is worth monitoring.



Source: https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/individual-states/florida

Florida is also among the states that have a reproduction rate of at least 1. Reproduction rate "lets us estimate how many secondary infections are likely to occur from a single infection in a specific area. Values over 1.0 mean we should expect more cases in that area, values under 1.0 mean we should expect fewer."

This model takes into account the amount of testing being done: https://rt.live/

[claycarver]

The Florida thing is a complete fabrication. They literally opened up drive through testing all over the state. Use common sense people - week 1 has 1,000 tests and 100 people are positive. Week 2 has 100,000 tests of course more than 100 people are going to be positive. (Not actual numbers - just illustrating a point)

People saying cases are going up are not just basing it on raw data. Positive cases relative to total individuals tested have gone up since memorial day weekend. Obviously not as bad as in March and April but positivity rate is going up again and is worth monitoring.



Source: https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/individual-states/florida

Florida is also among the states that have a reproduction rate of at least 1. Reproduction rate "lets us estimate how many secondary infections are likely to occur from a single infection in a specific area. Values over 1.0 mean we should expect more cases in that area, values under 1.0 mean we should expect fewer."

This model takes into account the amount of testing being done: https://rt.live/

Florida's been holding pretty stead for about 10 days now. The trend line doesn't look so great mostly because they've been under 5% going back to the end of April with a little dip at the end of May. Overall, pretty California-esque.

[threrf23]

I'll admit that I am a bit confounded that NYC, as one example, has yet to show any signs of a notable increase in cases as a result of two plus weeks worth of protests (plus reopening, although it is only minimally reopen).

Like, either masks are more effective than some give them credit for (myself included), NYC is closer to herd immunity than presumed (antibody testing could be inaccurate), and/or maybe there should no longer be any bans on large outdoor gatherings.

A quick search of the net, to see if anybody was sharing these questions, led me to this:

A new study projects that the Covid-19 herd immunity threshold could be as low as 10 percent.

The lower threshold immunity is caused by variability in the way people react to the virus. Because many people are asymptomatic and others get mild cases, this greatly lowers the herd immunity thresholds.

Past estimates of 70 percent herd immunity thresholds assumed homogeneous response to the virus, which is not the case.

Antibody tests in New York City have shown 20 percent of New Yorkers there have antibodies to Covid-19. If that's the case, and if the virus does produce heterogeneous responses, then New York City could have already reached herd immunity.

https://www.northsidesun.com/new-study-shows-covid-19-herd-immunity-threshold-could-be-low-10-percent

I don't really understand it nor would I take this finding for granted, but it would help to explain some curves and trends if the herd immunity threshold per community was a lot lower than presumed.

[floyd]

The Florida thing is a complete fabrication. They literally opened up drive through testing all over the state. Use common sense people - week 1 has 1,000 tests and 100 people are positive. Week 2 has 100,000 tests of course more than 100 people are going to be positive. (Not actual numbers - just illustrating a point)

People saying cases are going up are not just basing it on raw data. Positive cases relative to total individuals tested have gone up since memorial day weekend. Obviously not as bad as in March and April but positivity rate is going up again and is worth monitoring.



Source: https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/individual-states/florida

Florida is also among the states that have a reproduction rate of at least 1. Reproduction rate "lets us estimate how many secondary infections are likely to occur from a single infection in a specific area. Values over 1.0 mean we should expect more cases in that area, values under 1.0 mean we should expect fewer."

This model takes into account the amount of testing being done: https://rt.live/

As testing expands they are also testing a lot of people not exhibiting symptoms. So you’d assume your positive test rate would go down if infections were pretty constant as the prevalence in your testing population should be lower.

[Bad-Thoma]

The whole country is increasing testing and some states are still dropping or holding steady while others are on the rise. It's not just a result of increased testing no matter what people might hope. Keep taking this seriously.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa/record-spikes-in-new-coronavirus-cases-hospitalizations-sweep-parts-of-u-s-idUSKBN23L0JB

Nationally, there were over 25,000 new cases reported on Saturday, the highest tally for a Saturday since May 2, in part due to a significant increase in testing over the past six weeks.

Perhaps more troubling for health officials, many of these states are also seeing record hospitalizations - a metric not affected by increased testing.