2020 Draft Thread

Scoots1994 · Post #1481 » by **Scoots1994** » Mon Jun 15, 2020 10:03 pm

The reason so many teams project shooting into the games of the elite athletes is because they have been good enough to get here athletically that they have not had to spend the time to maximize the skill in shooting. It's the main reason so many elite college shooters are small ... it's the only way they could get there.

Predicting who can/will put in the work AND has the ability to develop a reliable outside shot is the challenge that is failed more often that not.

wco81 · Post #1482 » by **wco81** » Mon Jun 15, 2020 10:07 pm

Franchise history with top 3 picks isn't great:

2002 - Dunleavy (#3)
1995 - Smith (#1)
1993 - Anfernee Hardaway (#3), traded for Weber
1986 - Washburn (#3)
1980 - JB Carroll (#1) - part of that infamous trade with the Celtics.

Any chance they can draw #4 or later? Or can they only trade for #4 or later?

azwfan · Post #1483 » by **azwfan** » Mon Jun 15, 2020 10:15 pm

wco81 wrote:Franchise history with top 3 picks isn't great:

2002 - Dunleavy (#3)
1995 - Smith (#1)
1993 - Anfernee Hardaway (#3), traded for Weber
1986 - Washburn (#3)
1980 - JB Carroll (#1) - part of that infamous trade with the Celtics.

Any chance they can draw #4 or later? Or can they only trade for #4 or later?

Forget what the odds are exactly, i looked it up at some point... but the odds are something like...

#1 pick: 14%
#2 pick: 13%
#3 pick: 12%
#4 pick: 12%
#5 pick: 49%

So yeah, there's a better chance we get 4/5 than 1/2/3.

azwfan · Post #1484 » by **azwfan** » Mon Jun 15, 2020 10:23 pm

ShayDee wrote:
CaliWG wrote:
ShayDee wrote:https://www.sfchronicle.com/warriors/article/6-potential-sleepers-for-the-Warriors-in-a-15334612.php

This seems interesting. Not sure how credible or how much of a smoke screen but I like this list of players if we trade back.

Bey and Vassell obviously no-brainer, I prefer them (closer towards Bey because he has a higher floor and can help almost immediately) over some of the other guys in the lottery (like Okoro, Okongwu, Toppin). Not sure about Jalen Smith although I like his upside? Just pick Wiseman. I like Patrick Williams ahead of Okoro, if we are going to pick a defense only guy hoping for offense to come later, I think he has a higher ceiling imo. The last two seem ok if we picking in the 2nd round

I prefer Nesmith over all of them. He has a high level NBA skill right now (shooting) and he has the size & athleticism to be a quality defender. He could very well be the next Klay Thompson with his ability to catch & shoot, come off screens, pin downs, curls, etc. I’d take him as high as 3rd if I really had to choose between prospects straight up. 52% from 3 is an absolutely ridiculous number, and his advanced stats are off the charts offensively. A lot of teams will regret passing on him a few years from now.

There's probably a reason Nesmith isn't mentioned. I think Connor probably asked the FO about sleepers and most likely these guys are on their board, but there's still some other guys I think the warriors want, Nesmith included. So most probably The FO told him the only names he was allowed to publish and hide some of the guys they really actually want. Or I might be wrong and they actually don't like Nesmith and see some flags with him regarding his injury/defense/fit/upside with the team? I've done a lot of research on this draft and see like 3 guys that would fit the team really well that Connor didn't mention as trade back/2nd round targets

With no in-person workouts having taken place, a shortened NCAA season, and no tournament, I find the information from Connor not very useful even assuming its from a legit source. The Warriors do not have a final or even close to final draft board. These "likes" and "dislikes" are most likely the "likes" and "dislikes" of a single coach or scout (not a decision maker) and far from a consensus among the team as a whole. That said, its fun to read and speculate.

Quazza · Post #1485 » by **Quazza** » Tue Jun 16, 2020 3:44 am

wco81 wrote:Franchise history with top 3 picks isn't great:

2002 - Dunleavy (#3)
1995 - Smith (#1)
1993 - Anfernee Hardaway (#3), traded for Weber
1986 - Washburn (#3)
1980 - JB Carroll (#1) - part of that infamous trade with the Celtics.

cdubbz · Post #1486 » by **cdubbz** » Tue Jun 16, 2020 12:53 pm

azwfan wrote:
wco81 wrote:Franchise history with top 3 picks isn't great:

2002 - Dunleavy (#3)
1995 - Smith (#1)
1993 - Anfernee Hardaway (#3), traded for Weber
1986 - Washburn (#3)
1980 - JB Carroll (#1) - part of that infamous trade with the Celtics.

Any chance they can draw #4 or later? Or can they only trade for #4 or later?

Forget what the odds are exactly, i looked it up at some point... but the odds are something like...

#1 pick: 14%
#2 pick: 13%
#3 pick: 12%
#4 pick: 12%
#5 pick: 49%

So yeah, there's a better chance we get 4/5 than 1/2/3.

Yeah I kind of like the odds m.

61% chance we get 4/5
39% chance we get top 3.

Would be nice is the worst team had more of a 50/50 chance of top3. But yeah the current odds really help tanking.

KevinMcreynolds · Post #1487 » by **KevinMcreynolds** » Tue Jun 16, 2020 2:06 pm

New lottery odds are straight up doo doo brown

Scoots1994 · Post #1488 » by **Scoots1994** » Tue Jun 16, 2020 2:22 pm

wco81 wrote:Franchise history with top 3 picks isn't great:

2002 - Dunleavy (#3)
1995 - Smith (#1)
1993 - Anfernee Hardaway (#3), traded for Weber
1986 - Washburn (#3)
1980 - JB Carroll (#1) - part of that infamous trade with the Celtics.

Any chance they can draw #4 or later? Or can they only trade for #4 or later?

I don't really think that history matters. None of the people involved with any of those picks (other than Dunleavy in a round about way) is with the franchise anymore.

Scoots1994 · Post #1489 » by **Scoots1994** » Tue Jun 16, 2020 2:24 pm

cdubbz wrote:Yeah I kind of like the odds m.

61% chance we get 4/5
39% chance we get top 3.

Would be nice is the worst team had more of a 50/50 chance of top3. But yeah the current odds really help tanking.

Not sure teams that need to tank are really giving up tanking. It just means that race to the bottom right at the end of the season is a little less likely than it used to be. But teams are still going in to seasons with a plan to lose.

clyde21 · Post #1490 » by **clyde21** » Tue Jun 16, 2020 4:39 pm

Scoots1994 wrote:
cdubbz wrote:Yeah I kind of like the odds m.

61% chance we get 4/5
39% chance we get top 3.

Would be nice is the worst team had more of a 50/50 chance of top3. But yeah the current odds really help tanking.

Not sure teams that need to tank are really giving up tanking. It just means that race to the bottom right at the end of the season is a little less likely than it used to be. But teams are still going in to seasons with a plan to lose.

not really, teams don't decide whether to tank usually until like 25-30 games into the season at least, no team goes into the season with their 3rd units trying to lose games

Scoots1994 · Post #1491 » by **Scoots1994** » Tue Jun 16, 2020 6:25 pm

clyde21 wrote:
Scoots1994 wrote:
cdubbz wrote:Yeah I kind of like the odds m.

61% chance we get 4/5
39% chance we get top 3.

Would be nice is the worst team had more of a 50/50 chance of top3. But yeah the current odds really help tanking.

Not sure teams that need to tank are really giving up tanking. It just means that race to the bottom right at the end of the season is a little less likely than it used to be. But teams are still going in to seasons with a plan to lose.

not really, teams don't decide whether to tank usually until like 25-30 games into the season at least, no team goes into the season with their 3rd units trying to lose games

I think it's a little bold to claim no teams are going to do that. Let's take a not too out there hypothetical ... your team is bad once you get past the vets who are late in their career and too expensive, and to get one of those vets you traded a first round pick with protection on the top 3 picks. Your top player is injured and you know you are fully into rebuild mode. That team is going to go into the season making roster moves to maximize their development and data gathering on their roster, and maximize their flexibility for the next offseason, while also knowing that that will increase their chances of getting a top 3 pick and thus keeping their pick at or near the top of the draft.

The flattening of the lottery made it less attractive, but it absolutely didn't "solve" it. Mostly what it did was reduce the chances of multiple teams tanking for a singular talent in the next draft, but it's still going to happen. Like if Bronny was the 2nd coming in 3 years I could see the Lakers tanking to maximize their chances to get him with an old LeBron cheering the whole time.

wco81 · Post #1492 » by **wco81** » Tue Jun 16, 2020 6:35 pm

Yeah if there is a deep draft class, teams are going to be tempted.

Especially if there attendance isn't that great to begin with.

It might be a tougher question for some tread milling teams. They can get into the playoffs but not advance beyond the second round yet they will win around 50 games every year, probably sell a lot of tickets.

clyde21 · Post #1493 » by **clyde21** » Tue Jun 16, 2020 6:39 pm

there isn't a single team that has ever tanked straight out of the gate, that doesn't happen, period.

azwfan · Post #1494 » by **azwfan** » Tue Jun 16, 2020 6:59 pm

clyde21 wrote:there isn't a single team that has ever tanked straight out of the gate, that doesn't happen, period.

Trust the process.

The Maestro · Post #1495 » by **The Maestro** » Tue Jun 16, 2020 7:02 pm

clyde21 wrote:there isn't a single team that has ever tanked straight out of the gate, that doesn't happen, period.

Sixers tanked multiple seasons from the opening tip.

They’re the main reason the league changed the rules.

clyde21 · Post #1496 » by **clyde21** » Tue Jun 16, 2020 7:04 pm

not really, Sixers just traded all their functional bball players for expiring contracts and picks, they were just terrible over the course of multiple seasons, but it's not a decision they made specifically for any season

and if even if we take the process as that, it was a huge anomaly, this doesn't really ever happen.

wco81 · Post #1497 » by **wco81** » Tue Jun 16, 2020 7:27 pm

If Zion becomes all star or all NBA and helps turn the fortunes of the Pelicans around or maybe Morant does the same for the Grizzlies, teams will be tempted to try to win the lottery.

As long as it's the best route to turning around the team, vs. say signing a max player in free agency or in trade, if a team starts out slow, they may be tempted to take their shot for a top 5 pick.

Scoots1994 · Post #1498 » by **Scoots1994** » Tue Jun 16, 2020 10:03 pm

clyde21 wrote:not really, Sixers just traded all their functional bball players for expiring contracts and picks, they were just terrible over the course of multiple seasons, but it's not a decision they made specifically for any season

and if even if we take the process as that, it was a huge anomaly, this doesn't really ever happen.

Are you under the impression that a front office trading away their vets and sitting their young players for "injury" isn't a method of tanking?

The Cavs tanked hard the whole year as the plan to get LeBron.

MOST tanking is a response to issues during the season tipping them over from trying to play to trying to lose, but the full season tank absolutely happens.

clyde21 · Post #1499 » by **clyde21** » Tue Jun 16, 2020 10:15 pm

Scoots1994 wrote:
clyde21 wrote:not really, Sixers just traded all their functional bball players for expiring contracts and picks, they were just terrible over the course of multiple seasons, but it's not a decision they made specifically for any season

and if even if we take the process as that, it was a huge anomaly, this doesn't really ever happen.

Are you under the impression that a front office trading away their vets and sitting their young players for "injury" isn't a method of tanking?

The Cavs tanked hard the whole year as the plan to get LeBron.

MOST tanking is a response to issues during the season tipping them over from trying to play to trying to lose, but the full season tank absolutely happens.

name a full season tank other than Philly...as in teams literally went into the season trading away or not playing their best players

also no, trading players you don't need any more for draft picks is not tanking, it's the right move.

Scoots1994 · Post #1500 » by **Scoots1994** » Wed Jun 17, 2020 3:24 am

clyde21 wrote:
Scoots1994 wrote:
clyde21 wrote:not really, Sixers just traded all their functional bball players for expiring contracts and picks, they were just terrible over the course of multiple seasons, but it's not a decision they made specifically for any season

and if even if we take the process as that, it was a huge anomaly, this doesn't really ever happen.

Are you under the impression that a front office trading away their vets and sitting their young players for "injury" isn't a method of tanking?

The Cavs tanked hard the whole year as the plan to get LeBron.

MOST tanking is a response to issues during the season tipping them over from trying to play to trying to lose, but the full season tank absolutely happens.

name a full season tank other than Philly...as in teams literally went into the season trading away or not playing their best players

also no, trading players you don't need any more for draft picks is not tanking, it's the right move.

I already mentioned the Cavs tank for LeBron.

If the front office trades away players for lesser players who are younger knowing the result will be a good shot at a top pick that is tanking.

I know there are people out there who don't think tanking is real and it's not really possible to convince them otherwise so let's end it here with me being right and you thinking you are right