OT: COVID-19 thread #2

[dice]

He needs more than just his base to get re-elected though. Older folks, suburbanites- he's vulnerable in both demographics. The event at the FLA bar last week saw 12 of 15 friends come down with COVID. So multiple that by 1,000. That's what could result from packing in 20K people inside an arena, yelling and shouting for several hours, hardly any of them wearing masks. It could be a millstone around his presidency if say, we see 1,000 new infections from this event. It could turn the tide against him among a lot of people.

IMO, the election is over as far as Potus. The only person who can beat Biden right now is Biden. People act like Trump was this political juggernaut. The dude barely won in 2016 after Hillary ran a terrible campaign.

The real question is if the Dems can get 60 in the senate.

Hope you are right, but after 2016, I won't rest easy until it's over.

betting markets have biden w/ only a 53-42 advantage right now (hillary had a 70-30 advantage heading into election day by the most conservative estimates). trump had a slight lead before COVID-19. after well over 100,000 deaths nationwide and perhaps double that by election day, whatever happens at his OK rally will be just a blip on the radar. as for the senate, the democrats have only a 59% chance of taking the chamber. given that only 1/3 of senate seats are up for election every 2 years, there is virtually no chance that there will be 60+ democratic senators come 2021:

there are currently 47 senators caucusing w/ the dems. let's make the bold assumption that they retain all 12 seats they currently control that are up for election this year (5 of which are considered in play - AL, MI, MN, NH, NM). the democrats would then have to wrestle away 13 of the 23 birther party-held seats up for re-election. but 10 of them are considered safe seats: WY, WV, TN, OK, NE, MS, LA, ID and AR

so the democrats would have to sweep all 18 strongly contested senate contests in order to get to 60. talk about a blue wave

[Dresden]

IMO, the election is over as far as Potus. The only person who can beat Biden right now is Biden. People act like Trump was this political juggernaut. The dude barely won in 2016 after Hillary ran a terrible campaign.

The real question is if the Dems can get 60 in the senate.

Hope you are right, but after 2016, I won't rest easy until it's over.

betting markets have biden w/ only a 53-42 advantage right now (hillary had a 70-30 advantage heading into election day by the most conservative estimates). trump had a slight lead before COVID-19. after well over 100,000 deaths nationwide and perhaps double that by election day, whatever happens at his OK rally will be just a blip on the radar. as for the senate, the democrats have only a 59% chance of taking the chamber. given that only 1/3 of senate seats are up for election every 2 years, there is virtually no chance that there will be 60+ democratic senators come 2021:

there are currently 47 senators caucusing w/ the dems. let's make the bold assumption that they retain all 12 seats they currently control that are up for election this year (5 of which are considered in play - AL, MI, MN, NH, NM). the democrats would then have to wrestle away 13 of the 23 birther party-held seats up for re-election. but 10 of them are considered safe seats: WY, WV, TN, OK, NE, MS, LA, ID and AR

so the democrats would have to sweep all 18 strongly contested senate contests in order to get to 60. talk about a blue wave

So why a 59% chance of them doing it?

[dice]

Hope you are right, but after 2016, I won't rest easy until it's over.

betting markets have biden w/ only a 53-42 advantage right now (hillary had a 70-30 advantage heading into election day by the most conservative estimates). trump had a slight lead before COVID-19. after well over 100,000 deaths nationwide and perhaps double that by election day, whatever happens at his OK rally will be just a blip on the radar. as for the senate, the democrats have only a 59% chance of taking the chamber. given that only 1/3 of senate seats are up for election every 2 years, there is virtually no chance that there will be 60+ democratic senators come 2021:

there are currently 47 senators caucusing w/ the dems. let's make the bold assumption that they retain all 12 seats they currently control that are up for election this year (5 of which are considered in play - AL, MI, MN, NH, NM). the democrats would then have to wrestle away 13 of the 23 birther party-held seats up for re-election. but 10 of them are considered safe seats: WY, WV, TN, OK, NE, MS, LA, ID and AR

so the democrats would have to sweep all 18 strongly contested senate contests in order to get to 60. talk about a blue wave

So why a 59% chance of them doing it?

59% chance of them getting to 50 or 51 to take control of the senate and be able to set the agenda/get biden court appointees through. i'm sure it's a less than 1% chance of them getting to 60 for a filibuster-proof majority and being able to pass virtually any laws that conservative democrats will accept. the democrats only had 60 for a matter of weeks in 2009 after obama was elected. it's hard to imagine biden having the opportunity to wield that level of power when obama never really got the chance

[Dresden]

Ah, I see, I didn't notice that you meant 60, not 50. In any case, it will be a strong repudiation of Trumpism if the GOP goes from holding the presidency and both chambers, to losing all 3 in a matter of 4 years.

[dice]

“My suspicion,” Susan Dynarski, a University of Michigan economist, wrote on Twitter, is that “colleges are holding out hope of in-person classes in order to keep up enrollments.” She added: “If they tell the difficult truth now, many students will decide to take a year off,” which “will send college finances into a tailspin.”

[stl705]

“My suspicion,” Susan Dynarski, a University of Michigan economist, wrote on Twitter, is that “colleges are holding out hope of in-person classes in order to keep up enrollments.” She added: “If they tell the difficult truth now, many students will decide to take a year off,” which “will send college finances into a tailspin.”

No doubt, I don’t know why anyone wouldn’t recommend taking a gap year, in fact seems foolish not to at least consider it. Graduating as far away from a recession as possible is a good thing.

[PlayerUp]

IMO, the election is over as far as Potus. The only person who can beat Biden right now is Biden.

You're correct that what Biden does over the next 4+ months could determine the race but this presidential race in general is the biggest unknown ever. There are so many issues going on domestically that we just don't know where the moderates, silent voters, and voters who care little about politics stand and those are who determine every election.

People act like Trump was this political juggernaut. The dude barely won in 2016 after Hillary ran a terrible campaign.

Bush barely won both his elections as well coming down to just FLA for 2000. The only real lopsided win was Reagen in 1984. Since then, most have been pretty close except with the exception of Obama in 2008. You could argue as well Clinton in 1992 and 1996 but that determines how you view Ross Perot impact on that election. As seen in 2016, Trump does not need to win the popular vote to win this election.

The real question is if the Dems can get 60 in the senate.

1 in a million chance?

This is not going to happen. Statistically the republicans have a greater chance to keep control of the senate than the democrats.

==========================================================

https://www.vox.com/2020/5/18/21243174/most-competitive-senate-races-2020

As mentioned by vox, Democrats’ four biggest opportunities: Colorado, Arizona, Maine, and North Carolina

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From another sources standpoint

Republican senators representing left-leaning states or states that are shifting demographically — Susan Collins (Maine), Cory Gardner (Colo.) and John Cornyn (Texas) — are considered among the Democrats’ clearest 2020 targets. Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) is also potentially at risk after Democrats scored wins in some key state elections in 2018.

As Democrats from Trump-won states, Sen. Gary Peters (D-Mich.) and Sen. Doug Jones (D-Ala.) are also vulnerable.

==========================================================

Now you have early reports of problems for the Colorado Senate Seat

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/hot-mess-hickenlooper-s-senate-bid-runs-big-trouble-primary-n1231435

==========================================================

Lastly lets look at Washington Post viewpoint



There is just no realistic chance democrats can win 60 but there is an uphill battle for republicans to retain the senate and likewise the same will apply for democrats in 2022. Conclusion here is democrats winning 60 seats is not going to happen.

==========================================================

At this point I have ruled out listening to experts and polls here. None of them are likely accurate and I myself am not going to make any predictions. Whatever happens just be grateful to be an American yourself and live your life knowing you have a life of privilege. I have been different parts of the world recently seeing people in extreme poverty countries. These people don't deserve this. Any of them would be grateful to have the chance you do to be an american. Be positive, be open minded, and be proud to be an American.

[DuckIII]

I’m not gonna sugar coat it. I know I’m very fortunate to be an American, but I haven’t been particularly proud to be one for awhile now. There’s a difference.

But I see some hopeful signs lately.

[KissedByaRose1]

as is the pattern with his base of support, unless they are directly negatively affected by his actions, they'll ignore it. and oklahoma is in the bag for him regardless of how many people get sick due to that event. hell, farmers have been badly impacted by his trade wars, but aside from possibly iowa it won't cost him any states. and iowa's not going to swing the election. if he loses there it'll be because it's a wide electoral college victory for biden

He needs more than just his base to get re-elected though. Older folks, suburbanites- he's vulnerable in both demographics. The event at the FLA bar last week saw 12 of 15 friends come down with COVID. So multiple that by 1,000. That's what could result from packing in 20K people inside an arena, yelling and shouting for several hours, hardly any of them wearing masks. It could be a millstone around his presidency if say, we see 1,000 new infections from this event. It could turn the tide against him among a lot of people.

IMO, the election is over as far as Potus. The only person who can beat Biden right now is Biden. People act like Trump was this political juggernaut. The dude barely won in 2016 after Hillary ran a terrible campaign.

The real question is if the Dems can get 60 in the senate.

God i hope you're right but not sure after these last 4 years how you can say that with any degree of confidence. He may not be a political juggernaut but the dude has proven to be indestructible with any issue he faces and i feel like his base's resolve is as strong as ever. I agree with what you said a few weeks ago about not having faith in your fellow man. I've been shook to my core and if i had to gamble on it i'd bet he repeats..

[coldfish]

He needs more than just his base to get re-elected though. Older folks, suburbanites- he's vulnerable in both demographics. The event at the FLA bar last week saw 12 of 15 friends come down with COVID. So multiple that by 1,000. That's what could result from packing in 20K people inside an arena, yelling and shouting for several hours, hardly any of them wearing masks. It could be a millstone around his presidency if say, we see 1,000 new infections from this event. It could turn the tide against him among a lot of people.

IMO, the election is over as far as Potus. The only person who can beat Biden right now is Biden. People act like Trump was this political juggernaut. The dude barely won in 2016 after Hillary ran a terrible campaign.

The real question is if the Dems can get 60 in the senate.

God i hope you're right but not sure after these last 4 years how you can say that with any degree of confidence. He may not be a political juggernaut but the dude has proven to be indestructible with any issue he faces and i feel like his base's resolve is as strong as ever. I agree with what you said a few weeks ago about not having faith in your fellow man. I've been shook to my core and if i had to gamble on it i'd bet he repeats..

Back during the "open up" protests, there were surveys done and something like 80% or more of people agreed with the lockdowns. The media profits off of making it look like there are two equal sides but there largely isn't. We are in a depression level contraction with a 100 year pandemic. I'm in Ohio and I know republicans who refused to vote for Obama who fully intend on voting for Biden. Trump is going to lose this by an epic Mondale like manner as long as Biden doesn't go hard left and scare off the middle.

[Dresden]

"Florida added another 3,207 coronavirus cases Thursday, shattering the previous daily record as the state emerges as an alarming hot spot among places grappling with a resurgence of the disease."

[Dresden]

Here in CA, our cases are rising, too, so the governor has issued a state wide order for people to wear masks when outside your home. San Francisco did that a few weeks ago. I think it's a sensible precaution, which the science is showing is one of the surest ways to slow the spread.

[PlayerUp]

Back during the "open up" protests, there were surveys done and something like 80% or more of people agreed with the lockdowns. The media profits off of making it look like there are two equal sides but there largely isn't. We are in a depression level contraction with a 100 year pandemic. I'm in Ohio and I know republicans who refused to vote for Obama who fully intend on voting for Biden. Trump is going to lose this by an epic Mondale like manner as long as Biden doesn't go hard left and scare off the middle.

The last couple months before an election really does determine the outcome. You need momentum going in to get voters to get out and vote and undecided voters to swing your way.

Biden showing that he is fit to be president and isn't going to cave into the far left is key to his campaign. If he can convince the rest of the nation this, he should win all the battleground states. Majority including myself concerned with these far left policies which is why Bloomberg jumped into the race as well concerned that was the direction the party is going which as he said will not win a presidential election. Picking Elizabeth Warren to be your VP for example would be disastrous. If we can get back to the days of a smaller government with bipartisan policies, things should go back to normal in the US and be somewhat stable again.

On a side note, lets say Biden does win. He'll be 82 in 2024. Do you go with Biden in 2024 when there are some upcoming more promising options? Republicans as well as some good options as well. Should be interesting.

[Dresden]

I'd be surprised if Biden does not pick a woman of color for his VP. The mayor of Atlanta, or the congresswoman from Orlando. Either one should solidify his support among AA's, and possibly give him a big leg up in either one of those states. I think Val Demmings would be the safer option, as she isn't involved in the controversy in ATL, and also if that secures FLA, it would virtually put a lock on the election.

[Ccwatercraft]

I'd be surprised if Biden does not pick a woman of color for his VP. The mayor of Atlanta, or the congresswoman from Orlando. Either one should solidify his support among AA's, and possibly give him a big leg up in either one of those states. I think Val Demmings would be the safer option, as she isn't involved in the controversy in ATL, and also if that secures FLA, it would virtually put a lock on the election.

Demmings, a former cop? Ok.

[2018C3]

At this point, I think Biden has a advantage.

I actually prefer Trumps policies, but admit he tends to put his foot in his mouth way too often. He does not think before he speaks, and just blurts out whatever might be on his mind at any given moment.

Biden, is different, I don't agree as much with his policies, but he is much more strategic in thought process. He has years of experience in being a politician, and it shows in his presentation.

For a win, Bidden just needs to keep quiet, and not say or do anything really stupid. Trump will just continue being Trump, and if he wins again, it will mostly be due to people not wanting Bidden, rather than 100% behind Trump just like it was with Hillary.

I wish we could go back to a political era where we had candidates running that people generally liked both as people, and on policies. But with today's insane split party media coverage, I don't think we will see this same level of acceptance ever again.

I have idealistic view points, and the rules are simple.

1. Treat everyone, how you would like to be treated yourself.
2. Limit your mistakes in life, and stay out of trouble.
3. Work hard, and honestly peruse what ever you want to accomplish in life without screwing other people over.

I was lucky to have good (not rich) parents, but several of my friends were not as lucky. My dad was Ex-Military Corporal, who became a VA counselor and dealt heavily with both alcohol and drug abuse patients, He and two other guys ran a outdoors program who took Military Veteran adults out on outdoor camping trips for counseling. My Mom was a stay at home mom with three kids. Dad was always the enforcer of any rules, and allowed no nonsense behavior at all.

Up until 2010 Germany used to require all men to attend Compulsory military service, maybe we should do the same! I have met several German friends / coworkers who participated in this program back when I worked for a large worldwide German owned company.

The friends I keep in touch with today overcame these struggles. Two of my closest friends today had parents that were not well off, and the parents struggled with drug abuse. Both were able to put these problems behind them. (One toughed it out and worked hard, the other joined the army and is now also doing well).

One of my ex girlfriends father was a alcoholic and tried to rape her at 16, she ran away. (Note: She was not white, and grew up in circumstances that were pretty poor). I met her when I worked at IBM, and she also had a successful career. Prior to this Her parents got divorced, and the children were split up. She and her younger brother went to live with the dad, and her youngest sister who was just a baby went to her mom. The mother was a immigrant and not fluent in English, and may not have known her rights. She said after the divorce her jerk dad told her mom to pick "one" kid.

Things are not always as easy on the other side of the fence as people may think.

[transplant]

Gotta close loose ends.

Several weeks ago, I shared that my 83 year-old brother-in-law got Covid. They sent him to the hospital where he recovered and they sent him back to the rehab center he had contracted the virus. Then they sent him home...where he infected my 84 year-old sister, my niece and her husband. He then had a pneumonia relapse and died on June 10. My sister, niece and her husband are recovering well. This Thursday, we'll have a "drive by" burial ceremony with everyone staying in their cars. A celebration of his life will be held at some date in the future when it's safe for us to gather.

I won't be hypocritical, I've taken advantage of the loosening of restrictions, most notably by playing golf a couple times each week. This said, I encourage everyone to continue to respect the very real danger this virus still holds particularly for older people with whom you regularly interact. Masks, distance, hand-washing...you know the drill. Maintain your discipline. You can do it. Please do it.

[Dan Z]

Gotta close loose ends.

Several weeks ago, I shared that my 83 year-old brother-in-law got Covid. They sent him to the hospital where he recovered and they sent him back to the rehab center he had contracted the virus. Then they sent him home...where he infected my 84 year-old sister, my niece and her husband. He then had a pneumonia relapse and died on June 10. My sister, niece and her husband are recovering well. This Thursday, we'll have a "drive by" burial ceremony with everyone staying in their cars. A celebration of his life will be held at some date in the future when it's safe for us to gather.

I won't be hypocritical, I've taken advantage of the loosening of restrictions, most notably by playing golf a couple times each week. This said, I encourage everyone to continue to respect the very real danger this virus still holds particularly for older people with whom you regularly interact. Masks, distance, hand-washing...you know the drill. Maintain your discipline. You can do it. Please do it.

I'm sorry for your loss. My condolences.

[dice]

IMO, the election is over as far as Potus. The only person who can beat Biden right now is Biden. People act like Trump was this political juggernaut. The dude barely won in 2016 after Hillary ran a terrible campaign.

The real question is if the Dems can get 60 in the senate.

God i hope you're right but not sure after these last 4 years how you can say that with any degree of confidence. He may not be a political juggernaut but the dude has proven to be indestructible with any issue he faces and i feel like his base's resolve is as strong as ever. I agree with what you said a few weeks ago about not having faith in your fellow man. I've been shook to my core and if i had to gamble on it i'd bet he repeats..

Back during the "open up" protests, there were surveys done and something like 80% or more of people agreed with the lockdowns. The media profits off of making it look like there are two equal sides but there largely isn't. We are in a depression level contraction with a 100 year pandemic. I'm in Ohio and I know republicans who refused to vote for Obama who fully intend on voting for Biden. Trump is going to lose this by an epic Mondale like manner as long as Biden doesn't go hard left and scare off the middle.

that is simply not a realistic outcome given how divided the nation has been starting in the '90s with the "gingrich revolution." the bare minimum electoral votes in the bag for trump is 68. with another 51 all but guaranteed. and trump would have to continue to double down on incompetence in the remaining months before the election to produce a result like that

reagan 525 mondale 13
bush 426 dukakis 111
obama 365 mccain 173
biden 332 trump 206 (current bettor projection)

trump would probably have to be viewed on election day as a significantly more unfavorable candidate than obama was a favorable one in order for biden to surpass obama's electoral total. getting to bush's 426 total is a tall order. again, the nation simply wasn't as polarized in 1988

biden won't go hard left. he's carefully positioned himself in the meaty center of the democratic party his entire career. for example, he's getting a ton of pressure to choose a black woman as his VP. so what i'm betting he'll do is pick the most mainstream black woman he can find: kamala harris. the far left will pitch a fit because she's a former prosecutor, which doesn't exactly jive with the mission of the BLM movement

[coldfish]

God i hope you're right but not sure after these last 4 years how you can say that with any degree of confidence. He may not be a political juggernaut but the dude has proven to be indestructible with any issue he faces and i feel like his base's resolve is as strong as ever. I agree with what you said a few weeks ago about not having faith in your fellow man. I've been shook to my core and if i had to gamble on it i'd bet he repeats..

Back during the "open up" protests, there were surveys done and something like 80% or more of people agreed with the lockdowns. The media profits off of making it look like there are two equal sides but there largely isn't. We are in a depression level contraction with a 100 year pandemic. I'm in Ohio and I know republicans who refused to vote for Obama who fully intend on voting for Biden. Trump is going to lose this by an epic Mondale like manner as long as Biden doesn't go hard left and scare off the middle.

that is simply not a realistic outcome given how divided the nation has been starting in the '90s with the "gingrich revolution." the bare minimum electoral votes in the bag for trump is 68. with another 51 all but guaranteed. and trump would have to continue to double down on incompetence in the remaining months before the election to produce a result like that

reagan 525 mondale 13
bush 426 dukakis 111
obama 365 mccain 173
biden 332 trump 206 (current bettor projection)

trump would probably have to be viewed on election day as a significantly more unfavorable candidate than obama was a favorable one in order for biden to surpass obama's electoral total. getting to bush's 426 total is a tall order. again, the nation simply wasn't as polarized in 1988

biden won't go hard left. he's carefully positioned himself in the meaty center of the democratic party his entire career. for example, he's getting a ton of pressure to choose a black woman as his VP. so what i'm betting he'll do is pick the most mainstream black woman he can find: kamala harris. the far left will pitch a fit because she's a former prosecutor, which doesn't exactly jive with the mission of the BLM movement

Kamala Harris is the type of pick that opens the door for Trump (even if its just a crack). Biden has to make this a referendum on the Donald, which he has done so far. IMO, Biden should pick an unknown rather bland candidate with no controversial past.

Obama ran against competent candidates, like them or not. Biden is going to be running against a person that a lot of people in his own party don't even like. As long as Biden can keep the far left from destroying his campaign, this really should be an epic blowout. There are a lot of states like Texas, Georgia, Ohio, Iowa, etc. that always go red which could go blue.

I do think he gets it. Him coming out and saying "if you make less than 400k, I won't raise your taxes" and other such comments are taking republican talking points off the table.