2020 free agent targets and draft picks

[BlazersBroncos]

Given our lack of guys that can create their own offense, I pretty easily would take Hassan over Marc, Baynes and Favors.

I think a Nurkic / Whiteside duo for 48 would give Portland the best center play in the league, the best rim protection and the best post scoring. That duo could average close to 30ppg IMHO. It all comes down to attitude on Whitesides end, and I think there is a good chance he has turned a corner. I really think 24mpg of Nurkic would be much more efficient than 30mpg. He just hasn't shown the ability to stay healthy at his size when playing big minutes.

Jerami Grant for the MLE would be our best offseason option but IMO he either stays in Denver or gets paid more than that. Guys with his skillset are in HUGE demand.

I think using our FRP and a lotto protected 2022 to move up for an instant rotation guy wouldn't be a bad option. I don't think he is good enough to be a top 3 option, but Deni is a plug and play SF who can give us a sort of 21st century Detlef Schrempf type contribution. I would think of dealing 14 + 2022 lotto protected to get up to 7 or so and draft him. He can pass, defend, his shot has developed a ton, he moves very well w/o the ball, has proven himself against men and is a + hustle guy. I can see 14ppg / 5rpg / 2apg with nice percentages and at least mediocre defense as a rookie. He is one of the few SF in this draft, maybe the only one, who I am confident can start as a rookie.

[BlazersBroncos]

I know we have a glut of SG, but if we are talking sleepers I am really liking Trevelin Queen:

https://youtu.be/qA2fIOstmmc

https://hoopshype.com/2020/04/12/2020-nba-draft-trevelin-queen-new-mexico-state-interview/

That's one of the more impressive highlight videos I have scene recently. Nice stroke, plus athleticism, great anticipation on steals and he would bring a swagger and moxie that we lack in a way right now. If he is there at 44, I would pull the trigger.

I also like the idea of using Simons to move up for Deni, then taking Queen at 44 to replace Simons in our rotation. Albeit that would leave CJ as the backup PG, but he is better there than Simons IMO and at this point I have become complacent to the fact Neil doesn't want a real backup PG.

But this kid seems to have 'it' in a way. He reminds me of Gerald Green, but much more mature coming out. We could use someone like that.

[d-train]

1st round picks might have good value for buyers. Many teams holding 1st round picks will be close to or over the tax level. Who is going to pay luxury taxes on a late 1st round pick? Especially, when veterans are cheaper and subsidized.

Blazers have a 2nd round pick. 2nd round picks might have more than usual value. Last year the value of 2nd round picks was ridiculously high compared to previous years. Maybe Blazers should look for opportunities to move up the draft with our 1st and/or 2nd round pick.

[HoopsFanAZ]

Deleted.

[GEE]

My thinking is that, Dame's playoff window is wide open, we already have a solid roster if we can just re-sign Whiteside and Ariza, so unless there's a rookie with such undeniable talent that he's sure to contribute in the next couple years, I say sell off some picks over the next few years. Use Little, TPE, #14 & #44. Could that get us one more solid contributor for the next few years? What kind of upgrade to Little could we get for that?

If we can resign Whiteside and Ariza, (Melo I'm 50/50 on, don't care either way) we could have a very scary group of 9. Dame/Simons/CJ/Trent/Ariza/Hood/Collins/Nurkic/Whiteside. I don't honestly have a clue who the player is, but I want to use all assets to add just one more meaningful player... But who?

[Goldbum]

What stinks to me is I really like the way Layman would fit with our bench....
PG Ant
SG Trent
SF Little
PF Layman
C Whiteside
Obviously Jake Sunshine isn't an All-Star but his smarts, positional defense, hight/length/mobility and ability to spread the floor and drive the ball would seem to be a great compliment to a lineup that features Whiteside and Little. Frustrating that we let him walk for so cheap.
If Deni falls he's a rich man's Layman without the plus athleticism. As it stands I believe in Little to develop but for now he's a limited guy with a lot of plus traits to go along with so limitations that make him difficult to play without a floor spreading PF who can make some plays.

[DeBlazerRiddem]

My thinking is that, Dame's playoff window is wide open, we already have a solid roster if we can just re-sign Whiteside and Ariza, so unless there's a rookie with such undeniable talent that he's sure to contribute in the next couple years, I say sell off some picks over the next few years. Use Little, TPE, #14 & #44. Could that get us one more solid contributor for the next few years? What kind of upgrade to Little could we get for that?

If we can resign Whiteside and Ariza, (Melo I'm 50/50 on, don't care either way) we could have a very scary group of 9. Dame/Simons/CJ/Trent/Ariza/Hood/Collins/Nurkic/Whiteside. I don't honestly have a clue who the player is, but I want to use all assets to add just one more meaningful player... But who?

Most decent veterans who can contribute right away are going to require Ariza for salary matching.

Probably my top target in the "somewhat realistic" realm is Caris LeVert. He had an injury this year but has come back on fire (both a 50 point game and a triple double in the last 5 games) so might be out of our price range. Still Brooklyn sounds like they may be looking to deal him for a legit 3rd star next to Durant and Irving so maybe Portland could squeeze in a three team if that 3rd team is looking for rebuilding assets. Something like Gordon to Brooklyn, Caris to Portland, assets to Orlando (it would cost us Simons and some picks at least). If I were Brooklyn I would rather Caris than Gordon but you never know, if Durant doesn't want to play PF it may make them open to something like that.

Another realistic target is Kelly Oubre. The main problem is he makes a lot of sense for the Suns current lineup and their wish to be a good team around Booker. They do have Bridges and Johnson developing behind Oubre, so if we can convince the Suns to let those young guys get a chance and turn Oubre into multiple assets then he may be attainable. We also might help them attain a draft target, for example Toppin seems like he would be a potent offensive fit to address their PF position, or Okongwu if they want more defense next to Ayton. An example may be using our #14 to help them move up and swap picks with Chicago.

Going down my list, another guy in that sort of price/value range that may be attainable is TJ Warren from the Pacers. The problem with this is that like the Blazers, the Pacers SF position is a position of weakness for them. They don't have a first round pick this year so maybe they have someone they are targeting that they would give up Warren to get, but I would imagine in that scenario we would be targeting the same player and wouldn't throw in Ariza to make the finances work. So its tougher for me to see a scenario to get Warren to Portland.

At a much cheaper cost we have Duncan Robinson in Miami. To be honest I have no idea how the Heat value him. 26 year old rookie, 6'7 SF a bit undersized and not great defensively but a very good 3 point shooter. Maybe the Heat want to move up in the draft and so they use Robinson to swap #14 and #23, Blazers could still potentially get someone with potential like McDaniels, Pokusevski or Patrick Williams if they drop and at worst end up with a decent defensive role player like Paul Reed or Tyler Bey.

[d-train]

Most decent veterans who can contribute right away are going to require Ariza for salary matching.

Probably my top target in the "somewhat realistic" realm is Caris LeVert. He had an injury this year but has come back on fire (both a 50 point game and a triple double in the last 5 games) so might be out of our price range. Still Brooklyn sounds like they may be looking to deal him for a legit 3rd star next to Durant and Irving so maybe Portland could squeeze in a three team if that 3rd team is looking for rebuilding assets. Something like Gordon to Brooklyn, Caris to Portland, assets to Orlando (it would cost us Simons and some picks at least). If I were Brooklyn I would rather Caris than Gordon but you never know, if Durant doesn't want to play PF it may make them open to something like that.

Another realistic target is Kelly Oubre. The main problem is he makes a lot of sense for the Suns current lineup and their wish to be a good team around Booker. They do have Bridges and Johnson developing behind Oubre, so if we can convince the Suns to let those young guys get a chance and turn Oubre into multiple assets then he may be attainable. We also might help them attain a draft target, for example Toppin seems like he would be a potent offensive fit to address their PF position, or Okongwu if they want more defense next to Ayton. An example may be using our #14 to help them move up and swap picks with Chicago.

Going down my list, another guy in that sort of price/value range that may be attainable is TJ Warren from the Pacers. The problem with this is that like the Blazers, the Pacers SF position is a position of weakness for them. They don't have a first round pick this year so maybe they have someone they are targeting that they would give up Warren to get, but I would imagine in that scenario we would be targeting the same player and wouldn't throw in Ariza to make the finances work. So its tougher for me to see a scenario to get Warren to Portland.

At a much cheaper cost we have Duncan Robinson in Miami. To be honest I have no idea how the Heat value him. 26 year old rookie, 6'7 SF a bit undersized and not great defensively but a very good 3 point shooter. Maybe the Heat want to move up in the draft and so they use Robinson to swap #14 and #23, Blazers could still potentially get someone with potential like McDaniels, Pokusevski or Patrick Williams if they drop and at worst end up with a decent defensive role player like Paul Reed or Tyler Bey.

LaVert is a pipedream. If Nets were dumb enough to trade LeVert for Gordon, Magic would keep him. LeVert is the best thing Nets have going for them other than hoping for the return of a healthy Durant. Nets will be deep into luxury tax. I wonder how aggressive Nets can be re-signing Joe Harris. Harris is better than the other players you list and Nets would let Harris go 10x before they let go of LeVert.

Oubre is talented, no question about that. I don't know how good of a win now player he would be for the Blazers. Blazers need system players around Lillard, CJ, Nurk, and Melo. I'm not sure Oubre is a system player. Plus, he has a rich contract from a market that had more money than this summer. Why trade into expensive players if we can tap a historically inexpensive market instead? And, I am concerned about Oubre's knees. I think I would pass here.

Warren just isn't that good and his contract is too much. No thanks.

Robinson is an intriguing shooter. He can really hit open shots. The operative word is "open." I like Joe Harris better. Harris can shoot and is an all-around good player.

Realistically, Blazers have no way to get Harris either. Harris is going to get well over the MLE even in a tight market. I doubt Nets will let him go even if they have a huge tax bill for 1 season.

[GEE]

Our SF position could be just fine IMO.

I said before that Ariza was a blessing. I really like what he brings, and would love to have him here longer-term. I could see him as an insurance policy as our starter next year, but really envision him as our backup for years to come, as he could spend the last few years playing short but meaningful minutes, on a playoff contender.

Rodney Hood's recovery seems to be going really well, so I don't see any reason to replace him at this time. If he looks lame after 25+ games next year, then I'll start thinking of bigger trades, but he's been great for us. Love the guy, and not giving up on him!

With all that said, what I'm really focused on is a back-up wing, SF/PF, that can give us 8-12 mpg. A 10th man! Melo could be it, but I'd like to think we can and will do better.

[d-train]

I agree about Hood's recovery. The recent news sounds very promising. It would be so great if Hood is ready to play at the beginning of 20-21. Anything is better than having additional $6M of dead money on an already tight budget.

[BlazersBroncos]

I really like what I see from Abdoulaye N'Doye. He is already 22, but is a late bloomer going from 6'3 to 6'7 with an insane 7'2 wingspan. He has great handles and good vision from his time as a guard prospect and hits a great 44% 3PT on low volume (0.6 of 1.4). I am not convinced Little is more than a small ball PF, which is fine if he can become a Jerami Grant caliber guy there. But N'Doye is a much better prospect for the offense we run IMO. He has great touch on floaters attacking the rim and can C&S, but is just not an NBA player if asked to pull up or shoot on the move.

Here is a very long scouting video on him:

Watch on YouTube

I would love to snag him in R2.

I like the idea of running it back with the same squad, shooting for the moon at 14 with Pokusevski (Using him as a stretch 5 at first, likely he sees little PT, basically Wang ZhiZhi as a rookie) and snagging the arguably NBA ready N'Doye in R2.

Many will disagree with Poku, but to me this team doesn't need another solid but unspectacular rotation guy. The only way we take the next step is to hit a home run and to me, Poku is the only guy available around where we are likely to pick that has that potential. His mobility is unreal for his size, his shot is smooth albeit inconsistent and his handle and passing skills are already elite for someone his size/age. I don't know if he becomes a PF, C or even SF but to me, he has the tools to be a big time player if his development goes correctly. We don't need singles, doubles or even triples. To really elevate we need a home run. It may work, like Giannis, or it may fail, like Dragan, but regardless we need to make a big swing.

G - Damian Lillard / Anfernee Simons / (CJ McCollum)
G - CJ McCollum / Gary Trent Jr / (Rodney Hood)
F - Trevor Ariza / Rodney Hood / Abdoulaye N'Doye
F - Zach Collins / Carmelo Anthony / Nassir Little
C - Jusuf Nurkic / Hassan Whiteside / Aleksej Pokusevski

[BlazersBroncos]

Sorta off the cuff, but as we speak about having Nurkic and Hassan as a 2 headed monster for the full 48 at Center moving forward, here is what their adjusted statistics, and cumulative statistics, would be if each was handed 24mpg to ravage the competition (Obviously used Nurkic's 18/19 season for projection)

Jusuf Nurkic - 24mpg - 13.6 PPG / 2.9 ORB / 6.1 DRB / 9 TRB / 2.8 APG / 0.8 SPG / 1.2 BPG / 2 TO / 3 PF
Hassan Whiteside - 24mpg - 12.5 PPG / 3.1 ORB / 7.8 DRB / 10.9 TRB / 0.9 APG / 0.3 SPG / 2.4 BPG / 1.4 TO / 2.2 PF

2 Headed Beast 48 MPG - 26.1 PPG / 6 ORB / 13.9 DRB / 19.9 TRB / 3.6 APB / 1.1 SPG / 3.6 BPG / 3.4 TO / 5.5 PF

Considering the limited avenues we have to improve, its very hard to think we can be a better team without resining Hassan. Assuming he and Nurkic can be copasetic about a minutes restriction, and if any team culture can pull that off its ours IMO, the two headed beast is almost certainly the best option for this team.

[Norm2953]

Assuming the NBA indeed starts up again on July 31, one thing this start does for Portland is to see
how well all the current pieces fit together. Team management and the coaching staff will get to
see if Nurk and Zach are indeed fully recovered and will get an idea how well Ariza and Hassan
will fit with Nurk and Zach and whether they should be kept for next season.

Team decisions on how to set themselves up for next season are going to be important for the off
season is not that far off if the 2020-21 season starts in December.

[d-train]

I like the idea of winning a championship right now in these playoffs. Next year is important as a secondary consideration.

[DaVoiceMaster]

Does anyone else like the idea of the bench having Hood, Ariza, Melo, and Whiteside, along with a veteran PG? I'd be happy with that lineup next year coming off the bench. That means your starters are Lillard, CJ, Collins, Nurkic, and a SF (what could a combination of Simon, Trent Jr., and Little get em???). That's a really nice team... assuming Nurk and Collins are healthy and back in form. That could be a big ask at this point.

[d-train]

I like our team with Nurkic and Collins back to compete this season in the playoffs. And, I like our players and financial flexibility to get ready to contend next year.

I appreciate the contributions by Ariza and maybe he will be a part of the team next year, but I believe Blazers are going to waive him to improve our financial flexibility even more by getting out of his $11M guarantee. We have plenty of good exceptions to build our roster up to the tax threshold without overpaying Ariza or having his bird rights. Our $7M TPE could be gold if we reduce our salary enough to use it and stay under the tax threshold. Additionally, our MLE and BAE are plenty to sign players like Ariza, Melo, or younger alternatives.

Edit: Our full MLE and BAE is going to get a lot better player than any past year would have yielded because most teams will have no money to use their exceptions because they are already against or over the tax threshold. And, some teams will need to make trades with teams under the tax to create more untaxed dollars to re-sign their own free agents. This is where our $7M TPE will be very useful. The Warriors have a $17M TPE, but they are well over the tax threshold before using any of their exceptions. Every dollar the Warriors spend using their exceptions is a taxed dollar.

[dunlop212]

Can you guys educate me on what I understand is a trade window later this month. Could teams going to Orlando trade assets that have no value for the games in Orlando for players with no value to a team not going to Orlando? For example, trade an injured player with a desirable contract for a UFA star?

[d-train]

the following types of transactions will be permitted during that week-long window: (June 23-30)

Players can be signed to rest-of-season contracts.
Substitute players can be signed for players opting not to report to Orlando.
Two-way contracts can be signed or converted to standard deals.
Players can be waived.
Trades won’t be permitted during the transaction window, since the season’s deadline has passed and the offseason hasn’t yet begun

[d-train]

Here are some dates I have found various places:

June 23 transaction window begins
June 30 transaction window ends
July 30 NBA plans a restart in a bubble isolation situation at the Walt Disney World sports complex
July 1 - mid August finish of "seeding" games, substitute players can be signed for players missing due to health issues and excused absences. Positive for COVID-19 players can be replaced after seeding games by someone with three years or less in the NBA.
August 17 Deadline Players seeking an early entry into the NBA Draft must declare by
August 17 playoffs will begin
August 25 for the NBA Draft Lottery
October 6 Last day players that declared for early entry into NBA draft can drop out
October 13 (game 7, if necessary) best-of-seven NBA Finals: This date has also been reported to be October 12
October 16 for the 2020 NBA Draft
October 18 for the start of free agency
October 23 signings can start (none prior)

[PDX MM]

Does anyone else like the idea of the bench having Hood, Ariza, Melo, and Whiteside, along with a veteran PG? I'd be happy with that lineup next year coming off the bench. That means your starters are Lillard, CJ, Collins, Nurkic, and a SF (what could a combination of Simon, Trent Jr., and Little get em???). That's a really nice team... assuming Nurk and Collins are healthy and back in form. That could be a big ask at this point.

The potential problem is two of those guys have been known as malcontents whose ego's wouldn't allow them to come off the bench in the past. Has that really changed I wonder.