Davis Bertans "the Latvian Laser"

[payitforward]

PIF, I get your point about how you ranked players. It’s pretty clear that you’re not suggesting that Payton was the Zards best player...or that he's a better player than Beal.

But I disagree with your conclusion that Payton's play showed that he was someone the Zards should try to keep. (I believe that’s what you’re suggesting. Correct me if I’m wrong.)

Yes, Payton was good, at times, but in limited minutes and with a limited role and responsibility—playing defense. GPII doesn’t bring enough to the table as a ballhandler, distributor or shooter to make me want to keep him....

TBH, the impulse behind my words about Payton -- aside from simply recognizing that "in limited minutes and with a limited role and responsibility" he put up very solid numbers -- was not so much about our keeping him as to recognize that he's outlined a role for himself in the NBA. He can make something out of those limits, by staying within those limits, & I hope he does.

That said, he's inconsequential to us. A little bit the way McRae was inconsequential to us -- too old for a team that's at our stage of development to care much about. In principle, you'd rather have guys near the back of the bench who are young & have development potential. Not always possible, but definitely to be desired.

...over, say, a guy like Jerome Robinson. Robinson showed me a lot more a potential and upside than Payton. While clearly not the defender that Payton is, Robinson proved, at least to me, that he’s a pretty good (and hardworking) man-to-man defender. And, unlike Payton, Robinson can actually shoot and is a threat to score. Plus Payton is 27 years old while Robinson just turned 23....

But, the 2 guys don't present an obvious choice: a decision of "on the one hand" vs. "on the other hand." Robinson is guaranteed for next year, & given how soon his 2021-22 extension decision has to be made (1st day of the coming season, I believe) I won't be surprised to see him extended before we have the chance to see whether he'll ever play well.

So far, however, there is nothing at all that indicates he can be an effective NBA player of any kind. Tho, sure, he's an adequate defender. Robinson wasn't even particularly good in college (he did score the ball efficiently his final year). OTOH, for the reason I cited above, I agree that it makes more sense to have him on the team than GP II.

Agree that Bonga played above expectations for the most part. While some here were skeptical of Bonga’s future as an NBA player (and understandably so), I was one of those who found his potential intriguing (especially given his length, handle and ability to play D)…and argued that the Zards should hang on to Bonga to see what they had. (I believe you wanted the Zards to waive Bonga and keep Jemerrio Jones. (Again, correct me if I'm wrong about that.)

I wanted us to keep Jemerrio Jones, yes -- but not to waive Bonga! By no means. I would have preferred Jones over McRae.

Of course, we got Napier for McRae, so you can argue that Jordan turned out to be pretty useful after all! If we keep Napier, that is (we'd be fools not to).

Bonga didn't just play above expectations -- especially given how low the expectations were! He played very well.

[nate33]

...So... have I addressed your concerns with what I wrote?

No. Your take is still hot garbage. Beal was easily much better than Gary Payton II or anyone else on the roster this season. The idea that anyone else was even close is ludicrous.

Well, first off, I'd appreciate it if you'd cool your jets a little, nate -- I don't call your words "garbage."

Fair enough. I shouldn't have called it garbage.

But I do think you are being over-the-top in trying to have a hot take with your rankings. Any ranking that doesn't have Beal as the best player (or player who played the best this season, or whatever semantic distinction you are trying to make) is just silly. Maybe you want to say Payton and Bonga surprised you the most, or outplayed their salary level and expectations the most, or something like that. But it's just not credible to say that they were better, or played better, or played better in the minutes allotted than Beal.

[payitforward]

Maybe it's a little like horse racing, where the best horses carry the most extra weight. &, then, of course, as a more a lightly-loaded horse starts to win races, he carries more weight in the races that follow. So, in the end, things do find the right level.

Similarly, only someone as good as Brad would be asked to carry the load he did this year. & I attribute to that load the quite small efficiency dip in Brad's numbers.

It wasn't much of a dip at all. In fact, if we look at his non-scoring stats per 40 minutes there was virtually no dip overall with one exception -- he turned the ball over .75 more times per 40 minutes. & that, naturally, is the result of the increase in his usage (which was already very high). All the other stuff (rebounds, assists, steals, blocks, fouls) more or less balances out with his numbers last year.

As to scoring itself, Brad took over 25 shots & almost 9 FTAs every 40 minutes --@ a 23% jump from last year. Yet, his TS% was virtually the same as last year (57.9% vs. 58.1% -- effectively no difference at all).

So, on the one hand, you take note of it, but on the other hand it's fair to argue that what it really tells you is that Brad was even better this year than last -- i.e. that he is continuing to grow & develop -- precisely b/c of how much he was asked to do & how little the dip was.

That's a perfectly valid way to look at it. But, it's not how I was looking at the roster in the original post you objected to.

I was looking for what every player's numbers told us. That's important to do as well. The numbers are data. When you pay attention to them, they give you information. That helps you learn more about your team -- giving you knowledge that helps you to make better decisions about the team going forward.

Data > Information > Knowledge: that's a classic triad in the technology industry, as you no doubt know. Here are 3 obvious particular cases of what emerges from this kind of look at numbers.

1. Beal -- you put more on this guy, & he does not break. He doesn't even really bend! Wow...!
2. Bonga -- huh! This kid is incredibly young, sometimes he looks awkward, but... look at those numbers. This is a player with a future.
3. Bertans -- the numbers say that there are very few guys in the league, maybe none, who will score the 3-ball at the scale & efficiency he produces. But, they also show you things you have to watch out for & that affect what you should be willing to pay to retain him.

Now, nate... have I finally addressed your concerns?

[nate33]

Data > Information > Knowledge: that's a classic triad in the technology industry, as you no doubt know. Here are 3 obvious particular cases of what emerges from this kind of look at numbers.

1. Beal -- you put more on this guy, & he does not break. He doesn't even really bend! Wow...!
2. Bonga -- huh! This kid is incredibly young, sometimes he looks awkward, but... look at those numbers. This is a player with a future.
3. Bertans -- the numbers say that there are very few guys in the league, maybe none, who will score the 3-ball at the scale & efficiency he produces. But, they also show you things you have to watch out for & that affect what you should be willing to pay to retain him.

Now, nate... have I finally addressed your concerns?

Sure. Because that post is pretty far removed from this one:

Note: this is not "best player;" this is "who played best this year." That distinction is all the more important in that guys will be on the list w/ relatively few minutes. For example, to start with...

1. Gary Payton II
He was pretty terrific, so I have to give him credit. He didn't score, but his excellent rebounding, lots of steals, good number of assists & paltry turnovers meant that he posted numbers with very high impact. If I were running the Wizards (hah!) I'd sign him for two years for as little over the minimum as was legal under the CBA. Those who know me well will understand when I say that I am giving him the Sam Dekker Award for the 2019-20 season.

2. Troy Brown
Troy Brown is 20 & just completed his 2d season. He improved in every way that mattered. He improved a lot! & he was good as a rookie too. If he were to take an equivalent jump from season 2 to season 3 (not saying he will), he'd be on the verge of stardom.

3. Thomas Bryant
After a slow start, Bryant got better & better as the season went along. He was never going to have enough time to pull the season up to the stellar level of last year, but it was really reassuring to see him take hold.

4. Bradley Beal
Again, this is not a list by "best player" but by "played best." If a guy is carrying an anvil, you don't make any judgments about his time in the 100 yard dash! Under the pressure of what he was asked to do, Brad was unable to post the kind of numbers he posted last year. He still had a very good season. NBD.

5. Isaac Bonga
Everybody seems to underrate Bonga -- I don't mean his future, his upside, I mean what he got done on the court. This was essentially his rookie year (played 100 minutes for the Lakers last year) -- yet, he shot 40% on 3-pointers, 57.4% on 2's, & 81% from the line. Plus, he got a lot of offensive boards, rebounded well, had almost as many steals as turnovers. He was a revelation! Oh, & Isaac Bonga might have been the youngest player in the league this year! He didn't turn 20 until last November.

[payitforward]

In fairness, your critique did make me look at Beal's numbers in a little more detail arithmetically than I had. But, I didn't think anything different about Brad or anyone else when writing the one you prefer from what I thought when writing the first post. I did write more thoughtfully, however, & in greater detail.

Yet, in the first post: "If a guy is carrying an anvil, you don't make any judgments about his time in the 100 yard dash!" To me that says "this description does not contain a judgment about 'how good' Brad is." I used a metaphor, to be sure ("carrying an anvil").

Whatever.... In any case, we're good....

[payitforward]

Ok, maybe we should discuss what kind of deal the Wizards should be ready to give Davis Bertans: how much $$ per year & for how long.

Aside from the somewhat abstract question of what Davis is worth, there are at least two other key factors -- what we can afford, given the constraints of the cap, the tax, & the salaries of other players going forward (tons of uncertainty in that -- but it is still something to consider, a factor we need to keep in mind).

For context, what are our other financial parameters/issues for the upcoming season:

1. $100.1m for the guaranteed salaries of 9 players (Wall, Beal, Bryant, Ish, Rui, Jerome Robinson, Brown, Wagner, & Schofield).
2. Options of $1.66m for Bonga (but we may wish instead to sign him to a new multi-year contract) & $1.5m for Pasecniks.
3. Decisions about whether to retain, & how much to pay, Shabazz Napier, Garrison Mathews & Gary Payton II.
4. Salary obligations to the #9 pick next year &, very likely, $$ for at least 1 R2 pick.

One possible picture to emerge from the above might see us sign Bonga for 3+ years starting at, say, $2.3m, sign Shabazz Napier for @$3m (hopefully w/ an option for a second season that would include a small raise), & sign Garrison Mathews for 3+ years as well (starting at @$1.2m - & w/ a team option for the 2d year), while declining Pasecniks's option & letting Payton go. To this would be added $4.5m for the #9 guy & $1m for a R2 pick.

That would take us to 14 players & $112m. Obviously, under this scenario, we'd have no problem re-signing Davis. Even if didn't re-sign Napier (though I don't see why we wouldn't) & instead signed a FA using the MLE, we'd still be under $120m & have plenty of room under the tax to sign Davis.

Given all that -- & given the fact that there'll be competition for him (after all, at least 1 team offered a R1 pick for him at the deadline), what should be the terms of the contract we give Davis Bertans????

[nate33]

I think it will cost a bit more to lock up Bonga on a 3-year deal. Probably more like $4M per year. Switchy wings who aren't horrible shooters have value in this league. And I think Bonga's agent will bet that he's worth at least $5M per year on his next contract. So an extension now would have to be comparable (factoring the raise he gets this year).

I think Mathews will only cost the vet minimum. I worry about injury risk with him. The way he jumps forward on his 3-point shot, he's going to roll his ankle routinely.

I don't know what Napier will cost. I suspect someone else will pay him more to be their 2nd string backup than we will pay him to be our 3rd string. I like Napier though. If we could trade Ish for cap relief or useful forward depth then we could pay Napier more.

None of this affects your larger point though. We're going to have plenty of salary wiggle room this year and next year. Luxtax flexibility won't become a factor until Bertans' 3rd year (when it will be a massive problem).

In the abstract, I think Bertans is worth a bit more than the MLE. I'm sure teams with the MLE available would be willing to offer a full MLE deal so we will need to outbid them. I'd be very mindful of that third year salary, though. I wouldn't want to see the third year above $12M or so. Ideally, we'd sign him to a 3-year or a 4-year deal paying him a declining salary - something like $14M, $12.8M, $11.6M over 3 years respectively. If he wants more than that, then I'd start looking at 2-year deals whereby we can pay him virtually any amount: even a 2-year, $16M per year deal wouldn't really hurt our long term salary structure much.

[payitforward]

Interesting. The 3-year deal amounts to $38.4m, the 2-year deal, that's $32m -- in 2 years.

I think Davis & his agent would prefer the 2-year deal, don't you? I'll be interested to see whether anyone comes in higher than the 3-year offer.

[FAH1223]

The salary cap isn't going to go up this year, it may actually decline as does the luxury tax threshold.

The NBA may end the CBA too but Adam Silver has pushed it back...

[Ruzious]

The salary cap isn't going to go up this year, it may actually decline as does the luxury tax threshold.

The NBA may end the CBA too but Adam Silver has pushed it back...

The NFL is projecting a 70 to 80 million drop in their salary cap after this season, so I wouldn't be surprised to see a significant drop in the NBA's caps. This could end up limiting what the Wiz do - particularly in re-signing Bertans.

[payitforward]

Good point -- of course!

But, it's hard to imagine the league dropping the luxury tax line. You can't suddenly start taxing people who have made plans based on a totally different scenario. Alternatively, they could drop it in name -- but then somehow arrange a lower tax for the teams who are caught but could never have planned for the problem.

In any case, unless the rules change, we can re-sign our own FA even if it takes us over the cap. &, given we'd be add Bertans to a $112m salary load, it's likely we would not be forced by all the above to lower our offer.

Now... if there's less competition for Davis, then the price goes down.

One thing for sure: the Celtics won't be competing with us for Davis! Whatever interest they had will be impossible for them to follow up on. Once Hayward & Kanter pick up their player options, they are at $134m for 11 guys (plus 4 team options that total @$10m).

[payitforward]

Off topic --

At the close of the 2017-18 season, we had 1 guy under contract out of the previous 3 drafts, Kelly Oubre. Plus Devin Robinson on a 2-way & Chris McCullough's option which was declined promptly.

A year later, after 2018-19, it was 2 from the last 3: Troy Brown & Thomas Bryant, plus Robinson dropped immediately.

Another year later, i.e. right now, 9 of the 12 guys who are either signed or under option for next year or (in one case) signed as a 2-way are from the last 3 drafts: 2 from 2017 (Bryant & Pasecniks), 4 from 2018 (Brown, Robinson, Wagner & Bonga), & 3 from 2019 (Rui, Schofield & Mathews).

Only Wall, Beal & Ish are veterans. Assuming we re-sign Davis & Napier, then make our 2 picks, that'll be 11 out of 16 guys under contract who are from 2017 or later.

Talk about turning a team over in a hurry! Wow!

[80sballboy]

Just saw that Bertans will be sitting out Orlando due to his pending free agency. Understandable.

Read on Twitter

?s=20

[WallStar]

Just saw that Bertans will be sitting out Orlando due to his pending free agency. Understandable.

Read on Twitter

?s=20

I understand his precaution but this pretty much tells me he's not resigning with us.

[Jstock12]

Just saw that Bertans will be sitting out Orlando due to his pending free agency. Understandable.

Read on Twitter

?s=20

I understand his precaution but this pretty much tells me he's not resigning with us.

I think if a player from a contending team did this, I'd react differently, but this doesn't really hurt anyone. In fact, it gives more playing time (and potentially some playoff experience) for the younger guys.

[Wizardspride]

Just saw that Bertans will be sitting out Orlando due to his pending free agency. Understandable.

Read on Twitter

?s=20

I understand his precaution but this pretty much tells me he's not resigning with us.

Not necessarily.....

[badinage]

This is boo-sheeyit

Why would the team be ok with this?

If I were GM, I would say, Look, you can do this — it’s weaselly, and we have lost respect for you, but you can do it, we’ll allow it ... but only if you re-sign.

[WallStar]

Just saw that Bertans will be sitting out Orlando due to his pending free agency. Understandable.

Read on Twitter

?s=20

I understand his precaution but this pretty much tells me he's not resigning with us.

Not necessarily.....

Obviously nothing is guaranteed. But if I'm a player and I want to be a part of this team's future, I'd never sit out given that there is a chance to compete for the trophy. It's a brotherhood and he just detached himself from the team.

[80sballboy]

This is the best thing to happen in the long run. They can still re-sign him. Hopefully, they don't make the playoffs or play-in game and wind up with a better pick than nine or at least nine. Because who the hell wants to make the playoffs, get your a-s-s kicked by Milwaukee in four and get another 15ish pick in the first round.

[DCZards]

This is from a Clutchpoints article. Link to full story is below

“When the NBA announced that players who sit out wouldn’t face consequences and would just lose 1 percent of their salary for each game missed, we sat down to discuss this,” Kalnitis told HoopsHype. “Davis is about to sign the biggest deal of his life, so he would be taking a big risk by playing. It wasn’t a tough decision..If the Wizards were in the fifth or sixth seed (or maybe even the eighth seed), it would be completely different.”

“The Wizards have known about Davis’ decision for a few days, and Davis told his teammates before it was reported too. They have been so supportive. [GM] Tommy [Sheppard] is the best..and he and Davis have a special connection…Davis told me that they had a pleasant conversation and they were very supportive,” Bertans’ agent furthered.

https://clutchpoints.com/wizards-news-davis-bertans-real-reason-for-sitting-out-nba-restart-revealed/