Marks: Dunn to receive higher QO because he was deemed a starter

[dougthonus]

IMO, Shaq and Mokoka are resignable on vet min or near vet min deals. Can someone explain what Dunn gives us that those guys don't? Also, I don't think either of those two would belly ache about sitting on the bench, where Dunn is more likely to make noise.

Comparison of those guys

If you could count on Harrison to play like he did last season with 3-4x as many minutes, then he clearly looks like the best of those three guys. I can't say I'm really convinced Harrison's three point shooting is legit and will scale to more minutes/time, but even if not, he seems like a similar player to Dunn.

Mokoka isn't really comparable to me, he's much younger and less developed and skilled overall at this point. He'd really be about whether you think he's got good growth in his game or not. Not sure he's the same level athlete as Dunn/Harrison either.

I think if you could lock up Harrison to an Arci like deal, that you wouldn't regret it.

[sco]

IMO, Shaq and Mokoka are resignable on vet min or near vet min deals. Can someone explain what Dunn gives us that those guys don't? Also, I don't think either of those two would belly ache about sitting on the bench, where Dunn is more likely to make noise.

Comparison of those guys

If you could count on Harrison to play like he did last season with 3-4x as many minutes, then he clearly looks like the best of those three guys. I can't say I'm really convinced Harrison's three point shooting is legit and will scale to more minutes/time, but even if not, he seems like a similar player to Dunn.

Mokoka isn't really comparable to me, he's much younger and less developed and skilled overall at this point. He'd really be about whether you think he's got good growth in his game or not. Not sure he's the same level athlete as Dunn/Harrison either.

I think if you could lock up Harrison to an Arci like deal, that you wouldn't regret it.

Thanks Doug!

I think one key point is that we don't want Dunn or Shaq to play the minutes Dunn played last season (only out of injury based necessity and only after we were out of the playoff race). Despite his age, I think I'd bet on more of an improvement trajectory on Shaq than I would for Dunn to even get back to his "best self" next season in a reserve role.

[TeamMan]

IMO, Shaq and Mokoka are resignable on vet min or near vet min deals. Can someone explain what Dunn gives us that those guys don't? Also, I don't think either of those two would belly ache about sitting on the bench, where Dunn is more likely to make noise.

Looking at the roster next season, barring trades, we have

White/Arci
Zach/Sato
Otto/Hutch
Lauri/Thad
WCJ/Gafford/Kornet/Felicio

Plus our picks. That's 14. I could them doing a draft and stash with our 2nd rounder. So I would think they only keep one of Shaq, Mokoka, Dunn or Valentine and try to bring in a decent vet min forward.

Let's go with 3P %:
-------------------------
Dunn - 26%
Shaq - 38%
Mokoka - 40%

In today's NBA players that can't shoot a 3Pointer are being flushed out of the league. The one thing that can compensate is a high 2P%:

Dunn - 54%
Shaq - 50%
Mokoka - 46%

And to round out the whole comparison is the Effective FG% (combining 2P% with 3P%):

Dunn - 49%
Shaq - 52%
Mokoka - 54%

And if you look at this from a purely mathematical view, if Dunn had taken no 3P shots at all, then he would have tied with Mokoka for eFG%.

The last comparison is their performance as perimeter defenders, and IMO the difference is not enough to decide between the three.

So, for the money that you would have to pay each player, which one would you chose?

IMO Dunn comes in at a distant 3rd.

[dougthonus]

Let's go with 3P %:
-------------------------
Dunn - 26%
Shaq - 38%
Mokoka - 40%

If Harrison could shoot this well over a season, he'd be a very highly paid player. His 38% is on a total of 42 attempts last year though, and he's sub 30% for his career. I don't think anyone believes this percentage is representative of what he could do over the course of the season.

Mokoka's 40% is on 15 total attempts. I have no idea if he's a good three point shooter or not, but the total volume there is low enough that you shouldn't count on it being representative of anything. Others might be able to tell you that he is or is not a good shooter.

In today's NBA players that can't shoot a 3Pointer are being flushed out of the league. The one thing that can compensate is a high 2P%:

Dunn - 54%
Shaq - 50%
Mokoka - 46%

Well there is certainly a lot more than just eFG% and TS%. Ability to create, pass, handle, limit turnovers, etc, I'd say Dunn is probably best in most of those categories you didn't name over a high volume of attempts and Mokoka is probably worst. Mokoka isn't a ball handling guard like Harrison and Dunn are to an extent. Dunn clearly being the best in those categories.

The last comparison is their performance as perimeter defenders, and IMO the difference is not enough to decide between the three.

Think Dunn is the best here, Shaq isn't so far off Dunn, and Mokoka isn't in the picture. Dunn is actually big defensive positive and very disruptive. Harrison is similar, but harder to say if he could scale to more minutes. Mokoka isn't a net positive defensively yet, though obviously very young in his career.

So, for the money that you would have to pay each player, which one would you chose?

IMO Dunn comes in at a distant 3rd.

The money isn't really relevant except for profits, because none of the guys will prevent other signings by being her or not being here since they'll all be bird rights players. There might be reasons to take any of them. Dunn is the most proven and most expensive. Harrison looks like a potentially similar player to Dunn if given the same opportunity and will cost much less. Mokoka is a guy who has a better than 50/50 chance of not even being an NBA caliber player and is in a totally different bucket.

I'm not sure I'd want Mokoka even on the roster. Harrison is a guy I'd definitely keep if he's cheap (potentially vet min). Dunn is a guy I might keep if failed to pick up someone better in the off-season, but would probably let walk.

[Ccwatercraft]

IMO, Shaq and Mokoka are resignable on vet min or near vet min deals. Can someone explain what Dunn gives us that those guys don't? Also, I don't think either of those two would belly ache about sitting on the bench, where Dunn is more likely to make noise.

Looking at the roster next season, barring trades, we have

White/Arci
Zach/Sato
Otto/Hutch
Lauri/Thad
WCJ/Gafford/Kornet/Felicio

Plus our picks. That's 14. I could them doing a draft and stash with our 2nd rounder. So I would think they only keep one of Shaq, Mokoka, Dunn or Valentine and try to bring in a decent vet min forward.

Let's go with 3P %:
-------------------------
Dunn - 26%
Shaq - 38%
Mokoka - 40%

In today's NBA players that can't shoot a 3Pointer are being flushed out of the league. The one thing that can compensate is a high 2P%:

Dunn - 54%
Shaq - 50%
Mokoka - 46%

And to round out the whole comparison is the Effective FG% (combining 2P% with 3P%):

Dunn - 49%
Shaq - 52%
Mokoka - 54%

And if you look at this from a purely mathematical view, if Dunn had taken no 3P shots at all, then he would have tied with Mokoka for eFG%.

The last comparison is their performance as perimeter defenders, and IMO the difference is not enough to decide between the three.

So, for the money that you would have to pay each player, which one would you chose?

IMO Dunn comes in at a distant 3rd.

FYI, Dunn had shown improvement in 3p% before this season's regression.
16 .288
17 .321
18 .354
19 .259
Its one of the reasons that going into this season that I had high hopes for him.
Overall I agree with your assesment, its not a cap issue, its a profit issue, but also its a roster issue, we only have so many spots and at some point we need to clear space for improvement either by consolidation trade or just letting someone walk.

[sco]

IMO, Shaq and Mokoka are resignable on vet min or near vet min deals. Can someone explain what Dunn gives us that those guys don't? Also, I don't think either of those two would belly ache about sitting on the bench, where Dunn is more likely to make noise.

Looking at the roster next season, barring trades, we have

White/Arci
Zach/Sato
Otto/Hutch
Lauri/Thad
WCJ/Gafford/Kornet/Felicio

Plus our picks. That's 14. I could them doing a draft and stash with our 2nd rounder. So I would think they only keep one of Shaq, Mokoka, Dunn or Valentine and try to bring in a decent vet min forward.

Let's go with 3P %:
-------------------------
Dunn - 26%
Shaq - 38%
Mokoka - 40%

In today's NBA players that can't shoot a 3Pointer are being flushed out of the league. The one thing that can compensate is a high 2P%:

Dunn - 54%
Shaq - 50%
Mokoka - 46%

And to round out the whole comparison is the Effective FG% (combining 2P% with 3P%):

Dunn - 49%
Shaq - 52%
Mokoka - 54%

And if you look at this from a purely mathematical view, if Dunn had taken no 3P shots at all, then he would have tied with Mokoka for eFG%.

The last comparison is their performance as perimeter defenders, and IMO the difference is not enough to decide between the three.

So, for the money that you would have to pay each player, which one would you chose?

IMO Dunn comes in at a distant 3rd.

FYI, Dunn had shown improvement in 3p% before this season's regression.
16 .288
17 .321
18 .354
19 .259
Its one of the reasons that going into this season that I had high hopes for him.
Overall I agree with your assesment, its not a cap issue, its a profit issue, but also its a roster issue, we only have so many spots and at some point we need to clear space for improvement either by consolidation trade or just letting someone walk.

I think the decision is also dependent on the role/position we are asking these guys to play. IMO, it is defensive specialist against opposing wings. As such, I am largely discounting Dunn as a PG next season. From an offensive perspective, I think you go with the guy least likely to hurt you (i.e. someone who can be somewhat efficient if doubled-off). I think that given the roster composition, the only mistake is keeping more than one of them (unless you take Mokoka on a 2-way deal again).

[MrFortune3]

I believe Dunn has more to his offensive game than he's shown. I want to see where he is with a coach who is keen on development. Damn near everyone regressed last year except LaVine.

[TeamMan]

I believe Dunn has more to his offensive game than he's shown. I want to see where he is with a coach who is keen on development. Damn near everyone regressed last year except LaVine.

Not tying to contradict you just for the hell of it but...

Both Coby and Gafford were coming on stronger and stronger as the season went on.

I'm extremely positive on both players, and regret most of all that I didn't get to see them finish the season.

The new FO must be overjoyed to get two players coming off their rookie year that look so good.

And remember, even though Gafford was a 2n-round pick, after watching him in a few game, Gar/Pax locked him up for 4 years.

It was the last best thing that they did.

[Andi Obst]

I believe Dunn has more to his offensive game than he's shown. I want to see where he is with a coach who is keen on development. Damn near everyone regressed last year except LaVine.

I would love to agree, but I don't see it. He's a horrible shooter and not someone you want with the ball in his hands a lot. I don't see a way to become a positive player on offense for him.

[dougthonus]

Not tying to contradict you just for the hell of it but...

Both Coby and Gafford were coming on stronger and stronger as the season went on.

That's not the same type of comparison though, because they are rookies, they are expected to improve quickly as time goes on.

The new FO must be overjoyed to get two players coming off their rookie year that look so good.

I don't know that Coby looks particularly good for a 7th pick in the draft. I think they are probably psyched with Gafford. Coby had flashes, but his overall efficiency was absolutely awful, and he was a pretty huge net negative statistically on both ends of the floor. This isn't to say Coby is a bust, but he clearly has a lot of work to do.

And remember, even though Gafford was a 2n-round pick, after watching him in a few game, Gar/Pax locked him up for 4 years.

It was the last best thing that they did.

Good news, 4 years on a cheap deal seems like a steal.
Bad news, 3 years is the cut off for 2nd round picks to be RFAs, Gafford will be a UFA when his contract is done which is fairly unusual for a rookie deal.

[MrFortune3]

I believe Dunn has more to his offensive game than he's shown. I want to see where he is with a coach who is keen on development. Damn near everyone regressed last year except LaVine.

Not tying to contradict you just for the hell of it but...

Both Coby and Gafford were coming on stronger and stronger as the season went on.

I'm extremely positive on both players, and regret most of all that I didn't get to see them finish the season.

The new FO must be overjoyed to get two players coming off their rookie year that look so good.

And remember, even though Gafford was a 2n-round pick, after watching him in a few game, Gar/Pax locked him up for 4 years.

It was the last best thing that they did.

Some of it was due to injury and others just seemed to fall off a cliff but the regression for the team was noticeable.

Rookie are supposed to improve in the NBA, as the season wears on in theory they should improve with more exposure to the NBA game and training.

[TeamMan]

Not tying to contradict you just for the hell of it but...

Both Coby and Gafford were coming on stronger and stronger as the season went on.

That's not the same type of comparison though, because they are rookies, they are expected to improve quickly as time goes on.

The new FO must be overjoyed to get two players coming off their rookie year that look so good.

I don't know that Coby looks particularly good for a 7th pick in the draft. I think they are probably psyched with Gafford. Coby had flashes, but his overall efficiency was absolutely awful, and he was a pretty huge net negative statistically on both ends of the floor. This isn't to say Coby is a bust, but he clearly has a lot of work to do.

And remember, even though Gafford was a 2n-round pick, after watching him in a few game, Gar/Pax locked him up for 4 years.

It was the last best thing that they did.

Good news, 4 years on a cheap deal seems like a steal.
Bad news, 3 years is the cut off for 2nd round picks to be RFAs, Gafford will be a UFA when his contract is done which is fairly unusual for a rookie deal.

Actually IMO Coby played better in his rookie year in the NBA than he played during his 1 year of college.

So, it's very encouraging to see that kind of development over 2 years.

Not to forget, he set two rookie records, and that was in a shortened season.

I've said before that I'm not a stat freak, but I have to believe that during the last two months he was much better statistically than during the rest of the season.

Also, about Gafford, don't 2nd-rounders become RFA's after their 2nd year? If so, getting past that already puts the Bulls far ahead of the problems that they could have had.

[Ccwatercraft]

Not tying to contradict you just for the hell of it but...

Both Coby and Gafford were coming on stronger and stronger as the season went on.

That's not the same type of comparison though, because they are rookies, they are expected to improve quickly as time goes on.

The new FO must be overjoyed to get two players coming off their rookie year that look so good.

I don't know that Coby looks particularly good for a 7th pick in the draft. I think they are probably psyched with Gafford. Coby had flashes, but his overall efficiency was absolutely awful, and he was a pretty huge net negative statistically on both ends of the floor. This isn't to say Coby is a bust, but he clearly has a lot of work to do.

And remember, even though Gafford was a 2n-round pick, after watching him in a few game, Gar/Pax locked him up for 4 years.

It was the last best thing that they did.

Good news, 4 years on a cheap deal seems like a steal.
Bad news, 3 years is the cut off for 2nd round picks to be RFAs, Gafford will be a UFA when his contract is done which is fairly unusual for a rookie deal.

Actually IMO Coby played better in his rookie year in the NBA than he played during his 1 year of college.

So, it's very encouraging to see that kind of development over 2 years.

Not to forget, he set two rookie records, and that was in a shortened season.

I've said before that I'm not a stat freak, but I have to believe that during the last two months he was much better statistically than during the rest of the season.

Also, about Gafford, don't 2nd-rounders become RFA's after their 2nd year? If so, getting past that already puts the Bulls far ahead of the problems that they could have had.

I was under the impression that we had Gafford for 2 more years plus a team option.

If that is incorrect I'd like to know

[drosereturn]

IMO, Shaq and Mokoka are resignable on vet min or near vet min deals. Can someone explain what Dunn gives us that those guys don't? Also, I don't think either of those two would belly ache about sitting on the bench, where Dunn is more likely to make noise.

Looking at the roster next season, barring trades, we have

White/Arci
Zach/Sato
Otto/Hutch
Lauri/Thad
WCJ/Gafford/Kornet/Felicio

Plus our picks. That's 14. I could them doing a draft and stash with our 2nd rounder. So I would think they only keep one of Shaq, Mokoka, Dunn or Valentine and try to bring in a decent vet min forward.

Let's go with 3P %:
-------------------------
Dunn - 26%
Shaq - 38%
Mokoka - 40%

In today's NBA players that can't shoot a 3Pointer are being flushed out of the league. The one thing that can compensate is a high 2P%:

Dunn - 54%
Shaq - 50%
Mokoka - 46%

And to round out the whole comparison is the Effective FG% (combining 2P% with 3P%):

Dunn - 49%
Shaq - 52%
Mokoka - 54%

And if you look at this from a purely mathematical view, if Dunn had taken no 3P shots at all, then he would have tied with Mokoka for eFG%.

The last comparison is their performance as perimeter defenders, and IMO the difference is not enough to decide between the three.

So, for the money that you would have to pay each player, which one would you chose?

IMO Dunn comes in at a distant 3rd.

The 38% from Shaq is pretty disingenuous and is error of a sample size. Hes more like a 30% shooter judging by his mechanics but I believe he is at least better than Dunn who regressed offensively literally every year to the point hes garbage.
I feel like Mokoka has the most potential of the 3 and is the cheapest while having potential to be Jimmy Butler esque sharp shooter back when he was a bench mob.

Conclusion. Cut Dunn, Shaq if they arent resigned for multi yr cheap deals. Keep grabbing guys like Mokoka who shows some flashes.

[dougthonus]

Actually IMO Coby played better in his rookie year in the NBA than he played during his 1 year of college.

Better in what sense? His TS% was 50.6%, you just railed on how much you hate Dunn, but that's Dunn like scoring efficiency, except unlike Dunn, he doesn't bring defense to the table and is probably worse in every facet of the game outside of scoring compared to Dunn.

Granted, White is a rookie and has lots of upside to get better as he's 6 years younger, but I'm surprised you're so excited about him.

Not to forget, he set two rookie records, and that was in a shortened season.

Not sure what records he set, but whatever they were, they were clearly pointless in terms of generating overall value.

I've said before that I'm not a stat freak, but I have to believe that during the last two months he was much better statistically than during the rest of the season.

That is definitely true.

Again, noting the above, I'm not saying Coby sucks, but he isn't on any kind of star player track or anything either.

Also, about Gafford, don't 2nd-rounders become RFA's after their 2nd year? If so, getting past that already puts the Bulls far ahead of the problems that they could have had.

Any 2nd rounder or undrafted FA is a RFA any year they are a FA up until 3 years in the league. If the Bulls signed Gafford to a 1, 2, or 3 year deal he would be a RFA after it regardless of which they signed. The fourth year was probably a concession to Gafford rather than something favoring Chicago. It gave him the most guaranteed money possible if he doesn't pan out and if he play really well then it also opens him up to the most possible money in FA because he will be young without the restricted tag.

Still, it was good foresight to go long on Gafford rather than short, such as a 2 year deal.

[KissedByaRose1]

I’d keep Dunn at one year/7 mil but also wouldn’t be terribly upset if he walked either.

I think we have a real player in Mokoka. Has much better shooting form/offensive upside and I believe he is already a plus defender in the league. Really hope AK agrees and he’s someone I want to see getting back up wing minutes next year under any coach. We know exactly what Shaq is and it’s a fringe NBA player. Insane athlete but I don’t really wana see anymore time put into developing him.

[Chi town]

We are so hungry for Bulls basketball we are going in depth on Dunn.

I’ll take Makoka. Dunn won’t be teaching Coby anything about PG.

[TeamMan]

Actually IMO Coby played better in his rookie year in the NBA than he played during his 1 year of college.

Better in what sense? His TS% was 50.6%, you just railed on how much you hate Dunn, but that's Dunn like scoring efficiency, except unlike Dunn, he doesn't bring defense to the table and is probably worse in every facet of the game outside of scoring compared to Dunn.

Granted, White is a rookie and has lots of upside to get better as he's 6 years younger, but I'm surprised you're so excited about him.

Not to forget, he set two rookie records, and that was in a shortened season.

Not sure what records he set, but whatever they were, they were clearly pointless in terms of generating overall value.

I've said before that I'm not a stat freak, but I have to believe that during the last two months he was much better statistically than during the rest of the season.

That is definitely true.

Again, noting the above, I'm not saying Coby sucks, but he isn't on any kind of star player track or anything either.

Also, about Gafford, don't 2nd-rounders become RFA's after their 2nd year? If so, getting past that already puts the Bulls far ahead of the problems that they could have had.

Any 2nd rounder or undrafted FA is a RFA any year they are a FA up until 3 years in the league. If the Bulls signed Gafford to a 1, 2, or 3 year deal he would be a RFA after it regardless of which they signed. The fourth year was probably a concession to Gafford rather than something favoring Chicago. It gave him the most guaranteed money possible if he doesn't pan out and if he play really well then it also opens him up to the most possible money in FA because he will be young without the restricted tag.

Still, it was good foresight to go long on Gafford rather than short, such as a 2 year deal.

I don't think Dunn could ever achieve theses milestones in his entire career.

Coby did not do this in college, so you have to wonder what is his ceiling in the NBA?

And it's difficult to believe that theses achievements did not make a valuable contribution.

Coby White sets rookie record with 7 4th quarter 3-pointers

Watch on YouTube

Coby White is the first rookie in NBA history to score 30+ points in three consecutive games coming off the bench.

Watch on YouTube

[sco]

Actually IMO Coby played better in his rookie year in the NBA than he played during his 1 year of college.

Better in what sense? His TS% was 50.6%, you just railed on how much you hate Dunn, but that's Dunn like scoring efficiency, except unlike Dunn, he doesn't bring defense to the table and is probably worse in every facet of the game outside of scoring compared to Dunn.

Granted, White is a rookie and has lots of upside to get better as he's 6 years younger, but I'm surprised you're so excited about him.

Not to forget, he set two rookie records, and that was in a shortened season.

Not sure what records he set, but whatever they were, they were clearly pointless in terms of generating overall value.

I've said before that I'm not a stat freak, but I have to believe that during the last two months he was much better statistically than during the rest of the season.

That is definitely true.

Again, noting the above, I'm not saying Coby sucks, but he isn't on any kind of star player track or anything either.

Also, about Gafford, don't 2nd-rounders become RFA's after their 2nd year? If so, getting past that already puts the Bulls far ahead of the problems that they could have had.

Any 2nd rounder or undrafted FA is a RFA any year they are a FA up until 3 years in the league. If the Bulls signed Gafford to a 1, 2, or 3 year deal he would be a RFA after it regardless of which they signed. The fourth year was probably a concession to Gafford rather than something favoring Chicago. It gave him the most guaranteed money possible if he doesn't pan out and if he play really well then it also opens him up to the most possible money in FA because he will be young without the restricted tag.

Still, it was good foresight to go long on Gafford rather than short, such as a 2 year deal.

I don't think Dunn could ever achieve theses milestones in his entire career.

Coby did not do this in college, so you have to wonder what is his ceiling in the NBA?

And it's difficult to believe that theses achievements did not make a valuable contribution.

Coby White sets rookie record with 7 4th quarter 3-pointers

Watch on YouTube

Coby White is the first rookie in NBA history to score 30+ points in three consecutive games coming off the bench.

Watch on YouTube

Thanks for the uplifting reminder of Coby's upside!

The bummer with Coby is that he was supposed to spend the summer working with CP3 on his game before Covid. He has a lot of work to do as a distributor, but he made some nice strides toward the end of the season with his step-back jumper and getting his lay-ups blocked less.

[dougthonus]

I don't think Dunn could ever achieve theses milestones in his entire career.

Coby did not do this in college, so you have to wonder what is his ceiling in the NBA?

And it's difficult to believe that theses achievements did not make a valuable contribution.

Coby White sets rookie record with 7 4th quarter 3-pointers

Watch on YouTube

Coby White is the first rookie in NBA history to score 30+ points in three consecutive games coming off the bench.

Watch on YouTube

If you're excited about single game records, be my guest. History would show there are lots of single game record holders, especially when you come up with things like 3s in a quarter for a rookie or consecutive 30 point games for a rookie coming off the bench. Those are heavily qualified bizarre things that don't project to anything meaningful.

And, I agree, Dunn probably wouldn't score 30 a game for 3 straight games or hit 7 3s in a quarter, but its the type of thing Jannero Pargo or CJ Watson or Nate Robinson might do in a hot stretch when they were here. Not many guys who have an overall efficiency as low as Coby would ever be given the green light to shoot so much either.

The team clearly said screw it, let's see what Coby can do, we have nothing else going on.