If the 2020-2021 season is cancelled, what happens to future draft picks?

Old_Blue · Post #1 » by **Old_Blue** » Sat Jun 27, 2020 1:43 am

I'm really starting to doubt whether the NBA is going to have a 2020-2021 season. Without a season, what happens to 2021 draft picks? How would the league determine draft order? Could all draft picks for 2021 and beyond be pushed back by a year? Has anyone else thought about this? It's a troubling question, considering that we're sitting on Minnesota's pick next year.

Scoots1994 · Post #2 » by **Scoots1994** » Sat Jun 27, 2020 4:07 am

1. It's incredibly unlikely the season will be cancelled, particularly since they are planning to start playing in just over a month from now.
2. If there is no season I would assume all trades would move out a season and still be valid.

Little Digger · Post #3 » by **Little Digger** » Sat Jun 27, 2020 5:17 am

20-21 could very well be canceled ? I never thought about that one

Great thread topic

Old_Blue · Post #4 » by **Old_Blue** » Sat Jun 27, 2020 5:37 am

Scoots1994 wrote:1. It's incredibly unlikely the season will be cancelled, particularly since they are planning to start playing in just over a month from now.
2. If there is no season I would assume all trades would move out a season and still be valid.

The players were tested the other day and 5% tested positive. That's during the summer, while not playing. Imagine what the numbers would be if they were tested during the winter, while playing in stadiums with thousands of fans. As much as I miss basketball and wish it would return sooner rather than later, I just don't see the United States getting its arms around the coronavirus pandemic well enough to permit something as nonessential as sporting events. I am preparing for a very bleak winter.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/5-of-nba-players-test-positive-for-the-virus-11593191061

The Maestro · Post #5 » by **The Maestro** » Sat Jun 27, 2020 6:22 am

Scoots1994 wrote:1. It's incredibly unlikely the season will be cancelled, particularly since they are planning to start playing in just over a month from now.
2. If there is no season I would assume all trades would move out a season and still be valid.

It’s much easier to finish this season than to play next season. This year will finish in a bubble. No way they can play all next season in a bubble so I’d say as of now, they don’t play next year.

Little Digger · Post #6 » by **Little Digger** » Sat Jun 27, 2020 6:28 am

Roster consequences will be huge if they shut next season down..Even if they play , it will be without fans..the possible financial implications of that are mind blowing

Old_Blue · Post #7 » by **Old_Blue** » Sat Jun 27, 2020 7:16 am

Little Digger wrote:Roster consequences will be huge if they shut next season down..Even if they play , it will be without fans..the possible financial implications of that are mind blowing

I'm fairly certain all these teams have business interruption insurance to help cut their losses. The problem is that every other company has the same kind of policy and everyone else is already or will soon be filing a claim. I don't think it's a matter of if but when we see one or more large liability insurance carriers have to be bailed out by the government. As bad as things are, there are still so many dominoes yet to fall.

Scoots1994 · Post #8 » by **Scoots1994** » Sat Jun 27, 2020 4:50 pm

I think, in time, we'll get our heads around the concept that everyone will eventually be exposed. There was never any thought that people could 100% avoid exposure. The fact that they are going to play the playoffs this year shows the commitment they have to playing games, and that says to me that they will at the very least do something similar for next season.

Between now and October it's possible there could be a vaccine.

The amount of money lost to a cancelled season after the losses this season along with the new TV deal that they need to make ... 2/3 of the teams and players in the NBA will go bankrupt without games.

Old_Blue · Post #9 » by **Old_Blue** » Sun Jun 28, 2020 7:04 am

Scoots1994 wrote:I think, in time, we'll get our heads around the concept that everyone will eventually be exposed. There was never any thought that people could 100% avoid exposure. The fact that they are going to play the playoffs this year shows the commitment they have to playing games, and that says to me that they will at the very least do something similar for next season.

Between now and October it's possible there could be a vaccine.

The amount of money lost to a cancelled season after the losses this season along with the new TV deal that they need to make ... 2/3 of the teams and players in the NBA will go bankrupt without games.

Two thoughts...

First, given the current mortality rate in the United States (which has remained at 5% regardless of how much testing we've done), 100% exposure without a vaccine would result in 16-17 million deaths in the United States alone. So, 100% exposure really isn't an option.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

Second, while I hope these NBA playoffs go off without a hitch, the possibility of things going sideways is high. It wouldn't surprise me in the least if a number of players test positive mid-playoffs and you end up with a bunch of other guys saying it simply isn't worth it. We basketball fans really have to hope nothing goes wrong or these playoffs could actually increase the chances of a cancelled 2020-2021 season.

Scoots1994 · Post #10 » by **Scoots1994** » Sun Jun 28, 2020 2:17 pm

Old_Blue wrote:
Scoots1994 wrote:I think, in time, we'll get our heads around the concept that everyone will eventually be exposed. There was never any thought that people could 100% avoid exposure. The fact that they are going to play the playoffs this year shows the commitment they have to playing games, and that says to me that they will at the very least do something similar for next season.

Between now and October it's possible there could be a vaccine.

The amount of money lost to a cancelled season after the losses this season along with the new TV deal that they need to make ... 2/3 of the teams and players in the NBA will go bankrupt without games.

Two thoughts...

First, given the current mortality rate in the United States (which has remained at 5% regardless of how much testing we've done), 100% exposure without a vaccine would result in 16-17 million deaths in the United States alone. So, 100% exposure really isn't an option.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

Second, while I hope these NBA playoffs go off without a hitch, the possibility of things going sideways is high. It wouldn't surprise me in the least if a number of players test positive mid-playoffs and you end up with a bunch of other guys saying it simply isn't worth it. We basketball fans really have to hope nothing goes wrong or these playoffs could actually increase the chances of a cancelled 2020-2021 season.

First, when I said "people could 100% avoid exposure" ... I was NOT saying we will (or should) have 100% exposure. I was saying that it's not possible to be CERTAIN anyone will not be exposed. There is always a chance you will be exposed, no matter what you do.

I think it's a near certainty there will be Corona related issues in the playoffs.

I think the odds of next season being cancelled outright are incredibly slim.

KevinMcreynolds · Post #11 » by **KevinMcreynolds** » Sun Jun 28, 2020 2:56 pm

Pretty sure Adam Silver already said they’re not cancelling even if central Florida turns into a Covid Petri dish.

CS707 · Post #12 » by **CS707** » Mon Jun 29, 2020 10:59 pm

Any chance the delayed draft impacts who may end up being eligible this year?

HiRez · Post #13 » by **HiRez** » Tue Jun 30, 2020 5:12 am

KevinMcreynolds wrote:Pretty sure Adam Silver already said they’re not cancelling even if central Florida turns into a Covid Petri dish.

If that happens and it gets inside the bubble (which it will), they're not going to have a choice. If they don't shut it down, the players quickly will.

SinceGatlingWasARookie · Post #14 » by **SinceGatlingWasARookie** » Tue Jun 30, 2020 4:33 pm

Herd immunity to Covid 19 is not possible (without a vaccine).

I have read that no virus in the Coronona Virus family has ever been shown to create an immunity in infected people that lasts longer than 2 years; so forget about herd immunity unless we all get infected at the same time. Currents science suggests we will probably only be immune from Covid-19 for 6 months after we catch the virus.

On the Diamond Princess (best stats we had a month ago) 4% of 70 year old and older people healthy enough to be on a cruise died when they caught the virus. America has a huge population of healthy 70 year olds if 4 percent of them die we are talking about a few million deaths. Nobody younger than 70 died from the Diamond Princess.

It looks like something like 0.1% of people under 50 die when they catch Covid. That woukd have something like 200,000 younger americans dying if they all caught the virus. For 50 somethings might be some thing like 1/4 percent that would die and for 6 somethings maybe 1 percent woukd die.

Old folks need to avoid humans everybody has been vaccinated. Everybody needs to be vaccinated at basically the same time if the vaccination also only provides immunity for less than 2 years.

Put the NBA players in quarantine for 2 weeks and then let them play. They wont die they catch the disease.

Young folks not dying when they catch the disease doesn't mean that young folks hanging together in bars, meat packing plants or on basketball courts won't end up killing huge numbers of old people. If the young people all catch the disease then many of the old people are going to end up catching the disease even if the old people are trying hard to isolate.

Scoots1994 · Post #15 » by **Scoots1994** » Wed Jul 1, 2020 4:06 am

HiRez wrote:
KevinMcreynolds wrote:Pretty sure Adam Silver already said they’re not cancelling even if central Florida turns into a Covid Petri dish.

If that happens and it gets inside the bubble (which it will), they're not going to have a choice. If they don't shut it down, the players quickly will.

They had to decide that they won't stop before they started because they knew it was likely players would test positive.