Onyeka Okongwu or James Wiseman

[TB]

I've got them 1 and 2 on my Warriors big board. Currently Wiseman at the 1 spot just because the potential upside is higher due to his size.

That being said I almost hope Warriors get the 2-5 pick and just end up with Okongwu and not be worrying about hoping Wiseman gets to his potential peak.

I think Okongwu as a rookie will be very similar to what we saw Chriss do this year with Warriors. They have very similar measurements and athleticism, and the way Chriss was used at the center position is likely very similar to what a rookie Okongwu will be asked to do.

Some might be saying, how do you have a Chriss comp ranked 2? Fair, but I think a 19 year old that can give you 20 min with 10/6/1.5 blocks and solid effort/awareness/passing for his age would be a nice get. I also expect a 22 year old Okongwu to have developed much more that what Chriss is currently at.

As for Wiseman, I see him able to get similar numbers with more rebounding/blocks as a rookie, but alot more mistakes, tougher time on defense, and probably more of a net negative compared to a rookie Okongwu.

The major question is what a 22 yr old Wiseman looks like vs a 22 year old Okongwu.... thats the question GMs will have when deciding if they take Wiseman's potential due to his size.

[Leslie Forman]

I've literally never seen a game from either one of these guys so I'm not gonna make any kind of judgement, but just based on draft history, one big red flag for Wiseman is that this guy is a genuine 7-footer who was the #1 HS prospect in the country, has no injury issues, put up monster stats in (admittedly very few) college games…yet nobody is talking about him as the undisputed #1 pick in this draft, even though it's an incredibly weak one.

That doesn't mean he won't be a good player…but it pretty much damn near guarantees he won't ever be a great one.

[getrichordie]

I've literally never seen a game from either one of these guys so I'm not gonna make any kind of judgement, but just based on draft history, one big red flag for Wiseman is that this guy is a genuine 7-footer who was the #1 HS prospect in the country, has no injury issues, put up monster stats in (admittedly very few) college games…yet nobody is talking about him as the undisputed #1 pick in this draft, even though it's an incredibly weak one.

That doesn't mean he won't be a good player…but it pretty much damn near guarantees he won't ever be a great one.

You could easily argue that him not playing but 3 games is the reason he's not talked about. That scares people away on top of the fact that he's somewhat raw.

[Leslie Forman]

I've literally never seen a game from either one of these guys so I'm not gonna make any kind of judgement, but just based on draft history, one big red flag for Wiseman is that this guy is a genuine 7-footer who was the #1 HS prospect in the country, has no injury issues, put up monster stats in (admittedly very few) college games…yet nobody is talking about him as the undisputed #1 pick in this draft, even though it's an incredibly weak one.

That doesn't mean he won't be a good player…but it pretty much damn near guarantees he won't ever be a great one.

You could easily argue that him not playing but 3 games is the reason he's not talked about. That scares people away on top of the fact that he's somewhat raw.

Not really. Not when it comes to American 7-footers who were the #1 prospect in the nation, and especially not when we're also talking about an extremely weak, 2000/2013-like draft class.

Gigantic American true centers hyped throughout high school who put up big stats in college and end up being great pros are always undisputed #1 picks. This is pretty much an NBA draft rule. There's pretty much no wait-and-see process with these kinds of prospects. They are immediately seen as almost guaranteed studs and consensus #1 picks. The NBA doesn't mess around with those guys. Even Kevin Durant and Luka Doncic don't go ahead of them.

This doesn't mean Wiseman can't be an exception of course. He might still even go #1. But historically speaking…those three games shouldn't even matter if he was actually regarded as a can't miss American center prospect. It's just an observation, not a judgement on him, but when we're talking about center prospects with those measurements, that high school hype, and those stats (even if just 3 games)…if there's not a lot of smoke, there's usually not much of a fire.

I mean, we're currently talking about a draft where a volume scoring wing who put up a freaking .520TS% in college and another Ball brother who can't shoot are seen as the other main contenders for the #1 spot…

[MotownMadness]

Wiseman just sounds like Drummond vibes when people talk about him. The part that scares me the most about it is hearing the motor concerns. Drummond without that could have consistently been more impactful even with his limited skillset.

Motor Problems with these guys is so frustrating to deal with cause they are just promising enough to make you hold onto them hoping they get over it but ultimately waste a bunch of everyone's time in the end and ultimately don't lead you anywhere with that type of mentality.

[atlantabbq99]

Wiseman just sounds like Drummond vibes when people talk about him. The part that scares me the most about it is hearing the motor concerns. Drummond without that could have consistently been more impactful even with his limited skillset.

Motor Problems with these guys is so frustrating to deal with cause they are just promising enough to make you hold onto them hoping they get over it but ultimately waste a bunch of everyone's time in the end and ultimately don't lead you anywhere with that type of mentality.

Wise can shoot 70% from the free throw line, Drum only shoots 40%. That is a huge difference in effectiveness and impact, rather than guys like Drum and Deandre Jordan

[MotownMadness]

Wiseman just sounds like Drummond vibes when people talk about him. The part that scares me the most about it is hearing the motor concerns. Drummond without that could have consistently been more impactful even with his limited skillset.

Motor Problems with these guys is so frustrating to deal with cause they are just promising enough to make you hold onto them hoping they get over it but ultimately waste a bunch of everyone's time in the end and ultimately don't lead you anywhere with that type of mentality.

Wise can shoot 70% from the free throw line, Drum only shoots 40%. That is a huge difference in effectiveness and impact, rather than guys like Drum and Deandre Jordan

Drummond hasnt shot 40% from the line in a while now (usually around 60%). I honestly dont even remember the last time someone even used the hack a strategy on him or when they did he just makes a couple here and there and they stop. Hes nowhere near as bad at the line as he was when people would just hack the crap out of him, even has a whole new shooting form since then.

[Stillwater]

I love the fact that O is only 2 votes behind Wiseman, he is clearly the higher floor pick

[atlantabbq99]

Wiseman just sounds like Drummond vibes when people talk about him. The part that scares me the most about it is hearing the motor concerns. Drummond without that could have consistently been more impactful even with his limited skillset.

Motor Problems with these guys is so frustrating to deal with cause they are just promising enough to make you hold onto them hoping they get over it but ultimately waste a bunch of everyone's time in the end and ultimately don't lead you anywhere with that type of mentality.

Wise can shoot 70% from the free throw line, Drum only shoots 40%. That is a huge difference in effectiveness and impact, rather than guys like Drum and Deandre Jordan

Drummond hasnt shot 40% from the line in a while now (usually around 60%). I honestly dont even remember the last time someone even used the hack a strategy on him or when they did he just makes a couple here and there and they stop. Hes nowhere near as bad at the line as he was when people would just hack the crap out of him, even has a whole new shooting form since then.

At one point in his career, Drum was shooting as low as 31% from the free throw line. This season he shot 54% from the free throw line. Only one time Drum shot barely 60% from the line in his 8 year career. It's hard for a coach to put Drum in the last 5 minutes of a game with numbers like that.

Mutombo was a guy who could give you elite defense and still shoot +70% from the free throw line. Wise could be a slightly more athletic Mutombo who could give you 16-18ppg and who you can use to close out the game for you as a defensive anchor, lob threat, and offensive rebounding threat.

[Nazrmohamed]

I've literally never seen a game from either one of these guys so I'm not gonna make any kind of judgement, but just based on draft history, one big red flag for Wiseman is that this guy is a genuine 7-footer who was the #1 HS prospect in the country, has no injury issues, put up monster stats in (admittedly very few) college games…yet nobody is talking about him as the undisputed #1 pick in this draft, even though it's an incredibly weak one.

That doesn't mean he won't be a good player…but it pretty much damn near guarantees he won't ever be a great one.

I think that has more to do with the uncertainty of what the WARRIORS will do if they land number 1. Also I just think the C position has become similar to the RB position in football. You know you need one but people no longer consider them players you build around dt the proliferation of 3pt shooting and the speed necessary to defend them.

In other words if Ewing was what you knew him to be under todays style of play he wouldn't have been picked first even if surrounded by the same peers. Wiseman cannot control this no matter what he does, how many points, blocks or boards he gets. Or else thered be no question. Hes the most talented highest potential player in this draft.

[Stillwater]

I've literally never seen a game from either one of these guys so I'm not gonna make any kind of judgement, but just based on draft history, one big red flag for Wiseman is that this guy is a genuine 7-footer who was the #1 HS prospect in the country, has no injury issues, put up monster stats in (admittedly very few) college games…yet nobody is talking about him as the undisputed #1 pick in this draft, even though it's an incredibly weak one.

That doesn't mean he won't be a good player…but it pretty much damn near guarantees he won't ever be a great one.

I think that has more to do with the uncertainty of what the WARRIORS will do if they land number 1. Also I just think the C position has become similar to the RB position in football. You know you need one but people no longer consider them players you build around dt the proliferation of 3pt shooting and the speed necessary to defend them.

In other words if Ewing was what you knew him to be under todays style of play he wouldn't have been picked first even if surrounded by the same peers. Wiseman cannot control this no matter what he does, how many points, blocks or boards he gets. Or else thered be no question. Hes the most talented highest potential player in this draft.

I disagree about the most talented comment, but yeah technically unless he had proved to be dominant all season instead of just against inferior opponents orgs might have more confidence to overlook the needs at other positions.

[Leslie Forman]

I've literally never seen a game from either one of these guys so I'm not gonna make any kind of judgement, but just based on draft history, one big red flag for Wiseman is that this guy is a genuine 7-footer who was the #1 HS prospect in the country, has no injury issues, put up monster stats in (admittedly very few) college games…yet nobody is talking about him as the undisputed #1 pick in this draft, even though it's an incredibly weak one.

That doesn't mean he won't be a good player…but it pretty much damn near guarantees he won't ever be a great one.

I think that has more to do with the uncertainty of what the WARRIORS will do if they land number 1. Also I just think the C position has become similar to the RB position in football. You know you need one but people no longer consider them players you build around dt the proliferation of 3pt shooting and the speed necessary to defend them.

You're kind of supporting my point. The Warriors currently have three guys making the max at the 1, 2, and 3 spots and Draymond Green making $25mil a year. Clearly center is their one wide open spot. The other options at #1 are underwhelming. Yet people aren't sure they'll take him. Big men are still overvalued in the draft, just look at 2018.

Historically, an American 7-footer that becomes a truly great player goes number 1. No debate. No "well he doesn't fit a need." They take him. Period. That's how it works. The fact that Wiseman isn't talked about that way inherently suggests he's not really seen as that great of a talent by the industry insiders. They could, of course, be wrong. But with these kinds of prospects, they usually aren't. This would really worry me if I was thinking of taking him at 1.

[getrichordie]

^ You really shouldn't care about what the media thinks about guys, honestly.

Also, if you still care about that, earlier this season, everyone was pegging Wiseman to go #1. That has changed now since he only played 3 games.

[Nazrmohamed]

I've literally never seen a game from either one of these guys so I'm not gonna make any kind of judgement, but just based on draft history, one big red flag for Wiseman is that this guy is a genuine 7-footer who was the #1 HS prospect in the country, has no injury issues, put up monster stats in (admittedly very few) college games…yet nobody is talking about him as the undisputed #1 pick in this draft, even though it's an incredibly weak one.

That doesn't mean he won't be a good player…but it pretty much damn near guarantees he won't ever be a great one.

I think that has more to do with the uncertainty of what the WARRIORS will do if they land number 1. Also I just think the C position has become similar to the RB position in football. You know you need one but people no longer consider them players you build around dt the proliferation of 3pt shooting and the speed necessary to defend them.

You're kind of supporting my point. The Warriors currently have three guys making the max at the 1, 2, and 3 spots and Draymond Green making $25mil a year. Clearly center is their one wide open spot. The other options at #1 are underwhelming. Yet people aren't sure they'll take him. Big men are still overvalued in the draft, just look at 2018.

Historically, an American 7-footer that becomes a truly great player goes number 1. No debate. No "well he doesn't fit a need." They take him. Period. That's how it works. The fact that Wiseman isn't talked about that way inherently suggests he's not really seen as that great of a talent by the industry insiders. They could, of course, be wrong. But with these kinds of prospects, they usually aren't. This would really worry me if I was thinking of taking him at 1.

I mean we're just speculating but all I know is that anytime I've seen a player or former player asked about this yrs draft its Wiseman who stands out to them. When I listen to draft analysts is when it gets murky. Guys who study drafts seemingly don't like him and they control the narrative.

But that doesn't mean there isn't diversion and misinformation out there. Also we forget how distant the draft is for nba FOs right now. They're in the midst of figuring out how to restart last season, let alone next offseason. I just think teams know yet what they want to do, what thier needs will be.

If you take out the pause and overlapped this yr with last yr. We'd be at the point where RJ Barret was the top rated prospect and nobody knew who Ja Morant was yet. It could very much settle exactly how you think.

[Leslie Forman]

I mean we're just speculating but all I know is that anytime I've seen a player or former player asked about this yrs draft its Wiseman who stands out to them. When I listen to draft analysts is when it gets murky. Guys who study drafts seemingly don't like him and they control the narrative.

This is ultimately the issue. He was already the top high schooler. He put up monster numbers in his college games. But none of the draft nerds are talking about him like the next Towns, Davis, or even Ayton. The Ringer doesn't even have him in their top-5. When it comes to actual skillset and talent he is talked about more like a Drummond. The media almost never under rates these hyped up big American centers putting up big numbers, they almost always over rate them.

I don't know much about Okongwu but he is talked about more like a Horford-type at least, which doesn't exactly make him an incredible prospect either, but it's one more more impactful than your typical rim running shotblocker, which it sounds like is Wiseman's most likely outcome. So I can easily see why he may go ahead of Wiseman.

[azwfan]

I've literally never seen a game from either one of these guys so I'm not gonna make any kind of judgement, but just based on draft history, one big red flag for Wiseman is that this guy is a genuine 7-footer who was the #1 HS prospect in the country, has no injury issues, put up monster stats in (admittedly very few) college games…yet nobody is talking about him as the undisputed #1 pick in this draft, even though it's an incredibly weak one.

That doesn't mean he won't be a good player…but it pretty much damn near guarantees he won't ever be a great one.

You could easily argue that him not playing but 3 games is the reason he's not talked about. That scares people away on top of the fact that he's somewhat raw.

Not really. Not when it comes to American 7-footers who were the #1 prospect in the nation, and especially not when we're also talking about an extremely weak, 2000/2013-like draft class.

Gigantic American true centers hyped throughout high school who put up big stats in college and end up being great pros are always undisputed #1 picks. This is pretty much an NBA draft rule. There's pretty much no wait-and-see process with these kinds of prospects. They are immediately seen as almost guaranteed studs and consensus #1 picks. The NBA doesn't mess around with those guys. Even Kevin Durant and Luka Doncic don't go ahead of them.

This doesn't mean Wiseman can't be an exception of course. He might still even go #1. But historically speaking…those three games shouldn't even matter if he was actually regarded as a can't miss American center prospect. It's just an observation, not a judgement on him, but when we're talking about center prospects with those measurements, that high school hype, and those stats (even if just 3 games)…if there's not a lot of smoke, there's usually not much of a fire.

I mean, we're currently talking about a draft where a volume scoring wing who put up a freaking .520TS% in college and another Ball brother who can't shoot are seen as the other main contenders for the #1 spot…

Speaking of 2013, Nerlens Noel is the other top HS prospect 7-footer who was not consensus top pick. Although he likely would have been if not for his ACL injury.

[HotelVitale]

Really small sample size but I'd take my chances on Wiseman if I were a GM. He' s barely received any high level coaching but I think he looks to have the tools to succeed in the NBA as a modern 5. I think it was especially encouraging to see a lot of micro-movement from him off ball on O and D. He seems to be making constant mental and physical adjustments which is a great sign. He often doesn't make the right adjustments but that will probably come with experience and coaching.

Wiseman maybe worth the gamble for some of the high lottery orgs over most other high lottery options esp teams searching for that pie in the sky upside type pick but He is a long term project morso than some seem to think. This guy misses point blank lay ups and hes a 7'er... I would be more interested in the obviously higher floor of Okongwu where even if he fails to become an elite player (which he has the physical gifts to be), he is already a mid lottery level prospect if he never improves and a much safer bet as a result. I am not sold Wiseman has that much more upside to beleive it will rank him ahead of Okongwu for most orgs that are looking at bigs. Who has a better career depends on who goes where , who is more hungry etc.

I think you might be too sure of Okongwu here. I like his versatility and quick feet but he has s narrow path to becoming an 'elite player,' and I definitely wouldn't pencil him in as a good starter going forward. Like Wiseman most of what he got away with in college was greatly aided by his size advantage, which unlike Wiseman is gone immediately in the NBA. I can see how he could adapt his footwork and hustle game to the NBA but he'd have to be the best version of himself for that to happen. I also think he could be one of those picks where in two years everyone's wondering why they were top picks ('he's a smallish hustle big, can't you find one of those like anywhere?'). He doesn't do anything that will translate immediately beyond the hustle stuff, even his post-type stuff is a huge maybe and, even if it works, he might only use it a play or two per game at the NBA. That puts a big burden on his hustle game being pretty awesome, which could happen but I wouldn't bet my farm on that.

To be clear I agree he's the safer pick, and Wiseman vs him is a really tough call, but I don't see how Okongwu's floor is still a very useful starter on a good team. Can see possible worlds in which that's not the case.

[clyde21]

Onyeka's simply a much more nuanced player, better footwork, more functional athleticism, better BBIQ, better ball skills, and I haven't seen any evidence that Wiseman is gonna be a better defender either

all of this is not off set by size