Don't worry about the schedule. Only one game matters: Raptors vs. Celtics

ropjhk · Post #1 » by **ropjhk** » Tue Jun 30, 2020 1:00 pm

I didn't see a topic on this yet, though no doubt some of you would have already noticed. Maybe this can be the unofficial pre-game thread.

As you all know by now the Raptors have the toughest schedule while the Celtics have it pretty easy. The disparity is so bad that even a 3 game lead in the standings is not safe over the last 8 games. However, included in that 8 game schedule is a matchup between the Raptors and the Celtics. That game is extra important because it will decide the tiebreaker.

Currently the Celtics hold the tiebreaker over the Raptors, but if the Raptors win against the Celtics they will own the tiebreaker due to a better divisional win percentage (Raptors currently 8-4, Celts 7-6). There's no way for the Celtics to catch up to the Raptors on divisional record if they lose to the Raptors.

A win or a loss against the Celtics is the difference between having a 2 game cushion vs a 5 game cushion over the other 7 games. That's a huge swing in the standings. If the Raptors beat the Celtics they will almost certainly hold onto the #2 seed.

If the Raptors lose the #2 seed early they will be faced with a tough decision vs the Sixers. Would the Raptors rather lose that game to help set up a matchup against the Pacers in the first round?

Raptors Schedule:
Lakers
Heat
Magic
Celtics
Grizzlies
Bucks
Sixers
Nuggets

Celtics Schedule:
Bucks
Blazers
Heat
Nets
Raptors
Magic
Grizzlies
Wizards

2 team tiebreaker rules:
1. Better record in head-to-head games
2. Division winner (this criterion is applied regardless of whether the tied teams are in the same division)
3. Higher winning percentage within division (if teams are in the same division)
4. Higher winning percentage in conference games
5. Higher winning percentage against playoff teams in own conference
6. Higher winning percentage against playoff teams in opposite conference
7. Higher point differential between points scored and points allowed

seanbig · Post #2 » by **seanbig** » Tue Jun 30, 2020 8:01 pm

Is there any difference between 2 and 3 seed? I guess you can argue the first round matchup would be harder but at the end of the day we need to beat the best to you know....

Randle McMurphy · Post #3 » by **Randle McMurphy** » Tue Jun 30, 2020 8:02 pm

As long as McCaw doesn't play, there's no reason to be worried.

Randle McMurphy · Post #4 » by **Randle McMurphy** » Tue Jun 30, 2020 8:03 pm

seanbig wrote:Is there any difference between 2 and 3 seed? I guess you can argue the first round matchup would be harder but at the end of the day we need to beat the best to you know....

A 10-15% better chance of advancing out of the 1st round is not nothing.

Johnny Bball · Post #5 » by **Johnny Bball** » Tue Jun 30, 2020 10:25 pm

Are they not seeding this from 1-16 anymore?

kalel123 · Post #6 » by **kalel123** » Tue Jun 30, 2020 10:33 pm

I'm beyond worrying about seeding at this point. I really just want to see them in the playoffs and see how they respond. I really want them to show that they are for real even without Kawhi. Unless you are talking about us dropping to 4 seed, they just gotta beat down whoever they face in first and second round and play tough in ECF if not win. That's what I want to see.

Parataxis · Post #7 » by **Parataxis** » Tue Jun 30, 2020 10:33 pm

Randle McMurphy wrote:
seanbig wrote:Is there any difference between 2 and 3 seed? I guess you can argue the first round matchup would be harder but at the end of the day we need to beat the best to you know....

A 10-15% better chance of advancing out of the 1st round is not nothing.

It really is though. You don't get a parade for getting to the 2nd round. Raps aren't some plucky also-rans who are just happy to be there.

The goal is getting to the finals (and ideally, winning them). Losing in the first round, or losing in the second round makes no bones to me.

Ganjamayne · Post #8 » by **Ganjamayne** » Tue Jun 30, 2020 10:39 pm

Johnny Bball wrote:Are they not seeding this from 1-16 anymore?

Completely forgot about this lmao. Guessing not otherwise I'm sure ESPN would have beaten the topic to death

Randle McMurphy · Post #9 » by **Randle McMurphy** » Tue Jun 30, 2020 11:23 pm

Parataxis wrote:
Randle McMurphy wrote:
seanbig wrote:Is there any difference between 2 and 3 seed? I guess you can argue the first round matchup would be harder but at the end of the day we need to beat the best to you know....

A 10-15% better chance of advancing out of the 1st round is not nothing.

It really is though. You don't get a parade for getting to the 2nd round. Raps aren't some plucky also-rans who are just happy to be there.

The goal is getting to the finals (and ideally, winning them). Losing in the first round, or losing in the second round makes no bones to me.

Even if you don't put much stock in the additional 10-15% chance of advancement, you don't think it affects a team later in the playoffs if they are forced to play a grind-it-out 6-7 game series in the 1st round?

I'll take another Orlando myself.

Asif16 · Post #10 » by **Asif16** » Wed Jul 1, 2020 12:10 am

Johnny Bball wrote:Are they not seeding this from 1-16 anymore?

Nah thats out the window

Asif16 · Post #11 » by **Asif16** » Wed Jul 1, 2020 12:13 am

Randle McMurphy wrote:
seanbig wrote:Is there any difference between 2 and 3 seed? I guess you can argue the first round matchup would be harder but at the end of the day we need to beat the best to you know....

A 10-15% better chance of advancing out of the 1st round is not nothing.

2 very good teams will get eliminated in the 1st rd between Sixers/Celtics/Heat/Pacers, assuming the seeding holds. I would say the % will be much higher than just 10-15%.

We're talking about going from facing either the Magic or Nets (without Kyrie and Durant) to one of those 4 teams above. I say that makes a huge difference

Randle McMurphy · Post #12 » by **Randle McMurphy** » Wed Jul 1, 2020 8:15 am

Asif16 wrote:
Randle McMurphy wrote:
seanbig wrote:Is there any difference between 2 and 3 seed? I guess you can argue the first round matchup would be harder but at the end of the day we need to beat the best to you know....

A 10-15% better chance of advancing out of the 1st round is not nothing.

2 very good teams will get eliminated in the 1st rd between Sixers/Celtics/Heat/Pacers, assuming the seeding holds. I would say the % will be much higher than just 10-15%.

We're talking about going from facing either the Magic or Nets (without Kyrie and Durant) to one of those 4 teams above. I say that makes a huge difference

It's likely closer to 10% than 15% judging by these projections:

Read on Twitter

Again, still not nothing.

LBJKB24MJ23 · Post #13 » by **LBJKB24MJ23** » Wed Jul 1, 2020 12:58 pm

Johnny Bball wrote:Are they not seeding this from 1-16 anymore?

seeding within the conference.

dacrusha · Post #14 » by **dacrusha** » Wed Jul 1, 2020 2:33 pm

There’s a 95% chance we are playing Orlando or Brooklyn in the 1st round... and if by some fluke we slip to the 3 seed, there’s still a better chance that we meet the Pacers than anyone else.

With all neutral site games and no distinct HCA, I’m not sure any of this is worth worrying about: it’s ’best team wins’ and Raptors are right there with the top 4 in the league.

Son Goku 25 · Post #15 » by **Son Goku 25** » Wed Jul 1, 2020 4:50 pm

Ye, home court isn't a thing this year we basically just gotta make sure we are ready and healthy and in groove.. id like to avoid the sixers in the first round though

ropjhk · Post #16 » by **ropjhk** » Thu Jul 2, 2020 5:57 pm

First round matchup matters. It could be the difference between an easy sweep vs. a tough loss.

I would love it if the Raptors can treat the remaining regular season games like the preseason to get ready for the playoffs. The Celtics may not let that happen. If the Raptors win that Celtics game they can relax for the remainder of the schedule and maybe even use the first round to further prepare for the 2nd round.