Coronavirus/COVID-19, Thread 2

[ConstableGeneva]

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[shackles10]

I think it’s too simple to say things opened up on date x so 2 weeks later we will see a spike. Many were cautious to go out, so we should see a spike 2 weeks after they really started going out again, even if they were allowed to before that period. Also if testing in a place like Florida wasn’t as available 2 weeks after the relaxing of social distancing and it’s more available now that’s when you’ll see the spike in reports, even if the spike happened to individuals weeks earlier.

[jmr07019]

I think it’s too simple to say things opened up on date x so 2 weeks later we will see a spike. Many were cautious to go out, so we should see a spike 2 weeks after they really started going out again, even if they were allowed to before that period. Also if testing in a place like Florida wasn’t as available 2 weeks after the relaxing of social distancing and it’s more available now that’s when you’ll see the spike in reports, even if the spike happened to individuals weeks earlier.

Here is another figure. This one shows what percent of all tests come back positive for covid. It shows the 7 day moving average instead of the percent positive for a single day. The figure also shows the total number of tests.

While you are correct that testing became more widespread in Florida throughout May and moving into June there is also a spike in the percent of tests that came back positive that starts in mid June ~ about 2 weeks after the protests started.



https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/individual-states/florida

[bobbutts]

NY - 24,835 deaths - 20 million people
MA - 8,095 deaths - 7 million people
FL - 3,447 deaths - 22 million people
TX - 2,403 deaths - 29 million people
AZ - 1,588 deaths - 7 million people
WA - 1,276 deaths - 8 million people

Well just looking at the death numbers I reach a different conclusion than you about which states are performing better. At the end of the day saving lives is what it's all about. Florida and Texas are clearly doing a waaaaaaay better job than NY. AZ is doing a waaaaay better job than MA.

Cases started surging in in Florida in mid June. The state reopened May 1st. The protests began at the end of May. 2 weeks after the super spreader protests began cases surged. I look at this data and say the protests, not the reopening, caused the surge in cases. However if you look at the deaths per day in each state the graphs have remained flat. This also shouldn't be surprising as it's really not that dangerous for young people (the protesting demographic) as I have stated repeatedly.

I don't think you're making accurate conclusions. The states with the worst numbers above already peaked and have been declining for some time while states like AZ, FL, TX are still increasing. I don't understand how you could fail to see that as a problem currently!

I have seen much evidence that indoor gatherings are the main driver of viral spread and states like MN and NY that had major protests don't seem to be having an associated spike in cases at least yet. I feel that you labeling them as super-spreader events is political and inaccurate and such statements make it difficult to respond respectfully. I feel like I'm talking with an activist rather than someone who cares about honest discourse.

Super spreader events to me is a gathering of 1,000 or more people especially when they are shoulder to shoulder. If it makes you feel better I would call Trump's rallies super spreader events as well. I didn't make up the term. If you want to call it a large gathering or a different term that's fine. OT but for the record I fully believe that the black community has gotten a raw deal from America and we need changes. I also fully support LGBTQ rights.

Back to the virus I think the timing is crucial here. Florida began re opening at the beginning of May. The incubation period is 2 weeks. We should have seen this spike mid May, early June at the latest. Instead we are seeing it at the end of June. The simplest explanation is the protests where many people were gathered closely together caused the spike in cases. The timing lines up.



Why do you think California has had a spike in cases? To my knowledge they have kept a strict(er) lockdown although I admit I am not super informed on their policies.

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/06/30/black-lives-matter-protests-did-not-cause-an-uptick-in-covid-19-cases
It seems like this is reasonably supported. The more I look the more I see spread indoor as worse than people assume and outdoor to be not as bad.

[ConstableGeneva]

Read on Twitter

Researchers have identified several factors that make it easier for superspreading to happen. Some of them are environmental. For instance, poorly ventilated indoor areas seem especially conducive to the virus’s spread. A preliminary analysis of 110 COVID-19 cases in Japan found that the odds of transmitting the pathogen in a closed environment was more than 18 times greater than in an open-air space. And the authors concluded that confined spaces could promote superspreader events. (The study has not yet been peer-reviewed.) Another preliminary preprint study, by researchers in London, examined clusters of COVID-19 cases and found that nearly all of them were indoor or indoor-outdoor settings. The largest clusters were found in indoor spaces such as nursing homes, churches, food-processing plants, schools, shopping areas, worker dormitories, prisons and ships.

The evidence about superspreading activities has led researchers to believe they are responsible for much of the new coronavirus’s transmission. “All of the data I’m seeing so far suggest that if you tamp down the superspreader events, the growth rate of the infections stops very, very quickly,” Scarpino says. “We saw in Seattle that there were at least a couple of introductions that did not lead to new cases”—implying that the virus can fade out if it is denied circumstances for spreading.

But in the U.S.—where there have been nearly 2.16 million cases and more than 117,000 deaths—those situations may be on the rise. States are reopening businesses and activities, which means more people are coming in contact with one another in larger groups. So minimizing conditions that allow superspreading events to happen will be crucial for keeping COVID-19 in check. In Japan, health officials have advised people to avoid situations with the three C’s: closed spaces with poor ventilation, crowded spaces and close-contact settings. A virus’s ability to infect is not entirely a property of that pathogen, says Cristopher Moore, a computer scientist at the Santa Fe Institute who models virus-spreading events. “It’s a property of how the virus and human society interact,” he notes, and that’s something we have the power to change.

[claycarver]

What's the lag time between increased cases and increased deaths? Florida doubled the daily average of cases from June 1 to June 10 but the death rate has remained pretty constant.

[threrf23]

Would like to see more of this, to better understand the effect of various mask designs vs. different contexts.

Watch on YouTube

[threrf23]

What's the lag time between increased cases and increased deaths? Florida doubled the daily average of cases from June 1 to June 10 but the death rate has remained pretty constant.

I think 3-4 weeks on average.

FLA hospitalizations have been rising steadily, if not proportionately, since June 8th.



https://tallahasseereports.com/2020/06/27/two-charts-show-positive-trends-for-florida-in-coronavirus-battle/

[claycarver]

What's the lag time between increased cases and increased deaths? Florida doubled the daily average of cases from June 1 to June 10 but the death rate has remained pretty constant.

I think 3-4 weeks on average.

FLA hospitalizations have been rising steadily, if not proportionately, since June 8th.



https://tallahasseereports.com/2020/06/27/two-charts-show-positive-trends-for-florida-in-coronavirus-battle/

Yeah, we should know very soon. I just read that it's about 14 to 15 days from diagnosis to death (up from 5 days early in the pandemic) but it takes an extra week to get the deaths reports...which is really annoying. So 3 weeks out means we should see the death toll climbing....today actually.

As for the hospitalizations, that's insanely low. Florida's now seeing 7,000 new cases daily but they have the same number of hospitalizations as they had back in mid May. I assume the time from diagnosis to hospital admission is just a few days apart, right? Even if the gap is 7 days, that would mean only 175 of 4,000 cases result in hospitalization.

The average age of infection in Florida has dropped from the mid 60's to 37. That seems to be making a massive difference in the results.

[jmr07019]

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/06/30/black-lives-matter-protests-did-not-cause-an-uptick-in-covid-19-cases
It seems like this is reasonably supported. The more I look the more I see spread indoor as worse than people assume and outdoor to be not as bad.

Unfortunately I can't see behind the pay wall. I'm skeptical but let's assume that protests didn't cause an uptick in cases. That being the case beaches, outdoor concerts, any outdoor activity should be deemed safe correct?

[ConstableGeneva]

I don't think you're making accurate conclusions. The states with the worst numbers above already peaked and have been declining for some time while states like AZ, FL, TX are still increasing. I don't understand how you could fail to see that as a problem currently!

I have seen much evidence that indoor gatherings are the main driver of viral spread and states like MN and NY that had major protests don't seem to be having an associated spike in cases at least yet. I feel that you labeling them as super-spreader events is political and inaccurate and such statements make it difficult to respond respectfully. I feel like I'm talking with an activist rather than someone who cares about honest discourse.

Super spreader events to me is a gathering of 1,000 or more people especially when they are shoulder to shoulder. If it makes you feel better I would call Trump's rallies super spreader events as well. I didn't make up the term. If you want to call it a large gathering or a different term that's fine. OT but for the record I fully believe that the black community has gotten a raw deal from America and we need changes. I also fully support LGBTQ rights.

Back to the virus I think the timing is crucial here. Florida began re opening at the beginning of May. The incubation period is 2 weeks. We should have seen this spike mid May, early June at the latest. Instead we are seeing it at the end of June. The simplest explanation is the protests where many people were gathered closely together caused the spike in cases. The timing lines up.



Why do you think California has had a spike in cases? To my knowledge they have kept a strict(er) lockdown although I admit I am not super informed on their policies.

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/06/30/black-lives-matter-protests-did-not-cause-an-uptick-in-covid-19-cases
It seems like this is reasonably supported. The more I look the more I see spread indoor as worse than people assume and outdoor to be not as bad.

Quoted from link above:

Using data from 315 American cities with at least 100,000 people, covering the period mid-May to mid-June, the researchers compared the experience of the 281 cities where protests erupted with the 34 where they did not. One third of protesting cities saw large-scale gatherings with 1,000 or more attendees, making those particular regions more susceptible to another outbreak. Nonetheless, they found that the protests had no significant effect one way or the other on the incidence of covid-19.

They also found one possible—and surprising—reason for this. Protests were actually associated with an increase in social-distancing behaviour; for example, residents overall spent an additional 0.18 hours, or 11 minutes, per day at home (see chart). In other words, any time that residents spent protesting in the streets was more than offset by time other people spent baking bread and watching Netflix.

These results could be driven by a number of factors. Those choosing not to protest might have avoided going outside because of worry for their personal safety amid increased crime and violence. That some businesses were temporarily closed because of looting made going out even less appealing. Some residents may have stayed home because of a higher perceived risk of catching the coronavirus. Finally, increased road closures and blockages may have also discouraged citizens from leaving their homes.

https://time.com/5861633/protests-coronavirus/

Several cities that saw major protests, including New York, Chicago, and Philadelphia, have not experienced a new surge in cases in the days and weeks following. And in cities and states that specifically set out to test protestors, like Massachusetts, Seattle, and Minnesota, the results have shown that demonstrators were not considerably more likely to test positive compared to the general population.

That’s not to say protesting is entirely without risk. “Mixing in large groups increases the probability of transmission. I don’t think that’s controversial,” says Chad Cotti, a professor of economics at University of Wisconsin-Oshkosh. But, he adds, “how much transmission you get is clearly going to be a function of the environment and the circumstances. Are people wearing masks? Are people physically touching each other? Is it indoors, is it outdoors?”

"What I’ve seen supports things that we already knew, which are that if you’re going to gather, being further apart is better than being stuck close together, that being is masked is better than being unmasked, and that being outside is better than being inside,” says Janet Baseman, a professor of epidemiology at the University of Washington.

This isn’t to say that the disease didn’t spread at all during the protests. In Los Angeles and Washington, D.C., respectively, several police officers and members of the D.C. National Guard tested positive following the demonstrations; law enforcement groups nationwide have been criticized for failing to wear masks during the demonstrations. Furthermore, smaller protests have continued through June, and it will take time before any spread of the virus at these more recent events shows up in the data.

[jmr07019]

Although the NFL is hoping to keep the fan experience as normal as possible for the 2020 season, the league is definitely going to have to make some changes and it appears that one of those changes could involve fans signing a legal document. According to the Athletic, the NFL is currently considering the possibility of having fans sign a coronavirus liability waiver before they would be allowed to attend a game. By signing the waiver, fans would agree not to hold the NFL responsible if they were to catch COVID-19 while attending a game. Basically, fans would be forfeiting their right to sue the league and would be assuming all health risks that come with being in a stadium during a global pandemic.

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/nfl-might-ask-fans-to-sign-a-coronavirus-liability-waiver-to-attend-games-this-season-per-report/

Sounds good to me. They should implement this for all businesses. Let people be responsible for their own well being.

[threrf23]

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/06/30/black-lives-matter-protests-did-not-cause-an-uptick-in-covid-19-cases
It seems like this is reasonably supported. The more I look the more I see spread indoor as worse than people assume and outdoor to be not as bad.

Unfortunately I can't see behind the pay wall. I'm skeptical but let's assume that protests didn't cause an uptick in cases. That being the case beaches, outdoor concerts, any outdoor activity should be deemed safe correct?

If you disable javascript for that site, you'll get past the paywall. It links to this PDF - https://www.nber.org/papers/w27408.pdf

In short, an examination of data from 315 cities concluded that the protests did not have a significant effect, one way or the other, on incidence of COVID-19. However, a possible reason cited for this, is that cell phone tracking data suggests that overall "social distancing behavior" reportedly increased during the protests. In the week after the protests began, more people began to spend more time at home. In large cities, there was a 2% increase in people who stayed home all day, and the average resident began to stay home an extra 11 minutes per day. The increase was only slightly more pronounced in cities with curfews.

It's likely worth noting that most protestors wore masks, and many protesters were likely people who had been socially distancing, and taking the pandemic seriously, up to that point. So for that reason or others, there may have been a low prevalence in these crowds to begin with.

As far as large outdoor gatherings are concerned, it probably depends. How crowded are the gatherings, are people wearing masks, and how do people get there. One issue with both indoor and outdoor gatherings, is that in some cases, attendees rely on public transportation, and/or they travel distances with groups of people in a car - which is a small enclosed space.

[jmr07019]

This is interesting

Using data from 315 American cities with at least 100,000 people, covering the period mid-May to mid-June, the researchers compared the experience of the 281 cities where protests erupted with the 34 where they did not. One third of protesting cities saw large-scale gatherings with 1,000 or more attendees, making those particular regions more susceptible to another outbreak. Nonetheless, they found that the protests had no significant effect one way or the other on the incidence of covid-19.

They also found one possible—and surprising—reason for this. Protests were actually associated with an increase in social-distancing behaviour; for example, residents overall spent an additional 0.18 hours, or 11 minutes, per day at home (see chart). In other words, any time that residents spent protesting in the streets was more than offset by time other people spent baking bread and watching Netflix.

Either the bolded is true or outside + masks = low transmission rate almost regardless of social distance. Or a combination of the two.
I find it odd that in the middle of a pandemic we have gatherings like this and there is almost zero conversation about the effect of these gatherings on the pandemic. Perhaps you feel that racial injustice is more important than the pandemic. That's a legitimate point of view and I won't argue but to say that these gatherings don't cause the virus to spread is very surprising to me. Maybe the outside + masks = low transmission formula is rather powerful. We should at least be talking about this. Here are photos of New York.







https://1010wins.radio.com/articles/thousands-protest-death-of-george-floyd-across-nyc

Photos of Chicago







https://www.chicagotribune.com/news/breaking/ct-george-floyd-chicago-protests-20200601-mrgv3rsz3fgztlu5lyrsyuolr4-story.html

[claycarver]

Everything I've read says that outdoor makes a massive difference. Unless someone coughs on you, the breeze and unlimited volume makes it hard to get to the necessary viral load.

Personally, if I'm outdoors plus 6 feet distant I see no reason to wear a mask. I'm less comfortable packed in like the protestors even with a mask. But it doesn't surprise me that an outdoor event either with masks OR with a little distance doesn't create a problem.

[bobbutts]

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/06/30/black-lives-matter-protests-did-not-cause-an-uptick-in-covid-19-cases
It seems like this is reasonably supported. The more I look the more I see spread indoor as worse than people assume and outdoor to be not as bad.

Unfortunately I can't see behind the pay wall. I'm skeptical but let's assume that protests didn't cause an uptick in cases. That being the case beaches, outdoor concerts, any outdoor activity should be deemed safe correct?

Calling them "Safe" is probably taking it a step too far for me but it seems like the risk is relatively low compared to indoor activities of any kind. Those kinds of things should be the first things permitted when coming out of lockdown. Like playing a round of golf is likely relatively safe but going into the clubhouse for drinks after is not.

[SuperDeluxe]

Very interesting (and scary) article in the Washington Post about findings during autopsies: https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/07/01/coronavirus-autopsies-findings/

When the brain does not get enough oxygen, individual neurons die, and that death is permanent. To a certain extent, people’s brains can compensate, but at some point, the damage is so extensive that different functions start to degrade.

On a practical level, Solomon said, if the virus is not getting into the brain in large amounts, that helps with drug development because treatment becomes trickier when it is pervasive, for instance, in some patients with West Nile or HIV. Another takeaway is that the findings underscore the importance of getting people on supplementary oxygen quickly to prevent irreversible damage.

Solomon, whose work was published as a June 12 letter in the New England Journal of Medicine, said the findings suggest the damage had been happening over a longer period of time, which makes him wonder about the virus’s effect on people who are less ill. “The big lingering question is what happens to people who survive covid,” he said. “Is there a lingering effect on the brain?”

That last paragraph makes me wonder... Is some kind of permanent damage stealthily going on inside infected people who never show symptoms?

[threrf23]

Read on Twitter

Still another stage of tests necessary before production becomes a topic.

[sam_I_am]

On January 30th there were 7800 cases of Covid-19 worldwide and 170 deaths. The next day the president sort of banned travel from China a move he claims saved millions of lives. Today, 10 million cases and 500k deaths later, in Florida alone they have reported 10,000 cases and 63 deaths. One day.....10,000 new cases! The White House says it’s reassuring because it’s younger people that are testing positive. The idea that many Americans do not think this is a monumental catastrophe is mind boggling. Political agendas have really rotted people’s brains.

As a reminder, in Massachusetts where first wave is over, 8000 people died. 5000 were nursing home patients of which half were never hospitalized. 11,000 people were hospitalized of which 8000 survived. That means that out of 100k cases, more than 10% got hospitalized. Death is clearly worse, but anyone living in Texas, Arizona and Florida who thinks thousands young people a day needing several weeks of hospitalization and having their bodies brutalized by this virus is reassuring is delusional. And very soon it will terrorize the nursing homes again.

[claycarver]

On January 30th there were 7800 cases of Covid-19 worldwide and 170 deaths. The next day the president sort of banned travel from China a move he claims saved millions of lives. Today, 10 million cases and 500k deaths later, in Florida alone they have reported 10,000 cases and 63 deaths. One day.....10,000 new cases! The White House says it’s reassuring because it’s younger people that are testing positive. The idea that many Americans do not think this is a monumental catastrophe is mind boggling. Political agendas have really rotted people’s brains.

As a reminder, in Massachusetts where first wave is over, 8000 people died. 5000 were nursing home patients of which half were never hospitalized. 11,000 people were hospitalized of which 8000 survived. That means that out of 100k cases, more than 10% got hospitalized. Death is clearly worse, but anyone living in Texas, Arizona and Florida who thinks thousands young people a day needing several weeks of hospitalization and having their bodies brutalized by this virus is reassuring is delusional. And very soon it will terrorize the nursing homes again.

Where have you seen that thousands of young people each day are being hospitalized? I'm not saying that's untrue, but I haven't seen stats like that. I think Florida is closer to 175-200 a day.