No home court, should the Celtics treat the 8 game season like preseason?

celticfan42487 · Post #1 » by **celticfan42487** » Mon Jul 6, 2020 3:35 am

So the plan is to have everyone in the bubble with no crowds in America's meme known as Florida.

In this kind of situation there is no such thing as a home court advantage this year in the playoffs.

Given that, the months layoff, and the meaningless 8 game (two week) regular season... should the Celtics treat the restart like they would preseason?

What is the best way for them to ramp up for the playoffs?

There will not be such a thing as tired legs but there is an issue of getting players into game shape. Do they run 20 mpg outings for their starters and set plays for expected second round matchups against a variety of teams?

Or do they do normal minutes for the starters and then "rest-old" Pop style them the following game so they avoid some potential small muscle injuries in the legs as they work to get their feet under them again.

This is a situation unlike any other and likely won't be like any situation we'll see again. The #1 goal is to be healthy for the playoffs but the second goal is trying to get as close as we can to "game shape" or at least get there faster than any other team in the league. And every player will tell you that getting into game shape can't happen in practice.

Ill News · Post #2 » by **Ill News** » Mon Jul 6, 2020 4:46 am

I think they should still play for seeding. I don't know the probabilities of the Heat catching us for the 3-seed, or for us overtaking the Raptors for the 2-seed. I'd say the latter is more unlikely, while we only have a 2-game lead over the Heat. There's a good chance that the Pacers fall to #6 because of Oladipo's absence, and I'd want the C's to face them in the first round over the Sixers, so maintaining that #3 seed is a must.

That said, I think Brad and his staff will treat the first 3-4 games as kind of tune-up games, giving limited minutes to our important players so they don't overwork themselves after such a long break (they won't be in game shape yet). Then they'll just ramp up the intensity in the remaining games in preparation for the playoffs. If there's a chance to grab the #2 seed, I think they go full bore for it, since drawing the Nets or Magic in the first round is a dream scenario.

ConstableGeneva · Post #3 » by **ConstableGeneva** » Mon Jul 6, 2020 5:05 am

In terms of minutes, give our main guys -- Kemba, Tatum, Hayward, Brown, Smart, Theis -- slightly less than what they were getting in the regular season. Balance getting them in game shape and not overworking them. Give guys like R.Williams, Grant, Semi, and Kanter opportunity to see more floor time. We will need them situationally in the playoffs.

In terms of playcalling, preparation, mindset, schemes, etc., get it as close as you can to playoff scenario. Depending on how early our seeding could get locked in, final game vs. Wizards could be a light one for our top 6 guys.

Post #4 » by **Parliament10** » Mon Jul 6, 2020 6:59 am

We'll have a 3-Game Scrimmage first off. = So treat that like the Preseason; experiment and so forth.

But once we get into the 8 Games. = Treat that like the End of the Season.
Give younger Guys more playing time early on, and keep our Core fresh. Closer in, we need to shorten the Rotation, and stick with it.

As far as I know, Smart is our only Failsafe Guy. = Meaning: He's had COVID-19 already, so he's unlikely to catch it again.
Everyone else, has to be more careful, and are a liability to come down with the virus.

No Homecourt. = So just disassemble each opponent one-by-one.
3 Preseason Scrimmages. 8 End of Season Games/Quasi-Playoffs. And Best out of 7, times 4.

jmr07019 · Post #5 » by **jmr07019** » Mon Jul 6, 2020 1:19 pm

Top of the rotation guys often get around 40 mpg in the playoffs. I don’t know the best way to get them ready for that but I would think they would want a couple of games at 35ish minutes before making the jump to 40. You wouldn’t want to play a max of 30 mpg and then make the jump to 40. Alternatively maybe we don’t have our guys playing 40 mpg or at least not in the first round. It would be a lot easier to use the first round to continue getting in shape if we were playing Brooklyn or Orlando instead of Philly or Indy.

Post #6 » by **shackles10** » Mon Jul 6, 2020 2:27 pm

The good thing is every other team, whether it be in the 8 remaining games or the first round of the playoffs is in the same situation as us. They’re unsure how to manage it too. So while I don’t believe in reactionary coaching being very successful normally, this isn’t a normal situation. If we’re looking pretty solidly at a first round matchup with the Pacers and you see they’re playing their guys 20-25 mpg it’s unlikely they’re going to 40 mpg when we face them in the first round. If you see them going 35-40 mpg in the remaining 8 then you’ll know that too. After the first round I think we’ll see teams with little exception go to what we’re used to seeing in the playoffs anyways. Luckily anyone in the top 3 seeds should be pretty automatic, if rosters don’t change, for advancing after the Dipo news.

Banks2Pierce · Post #7 » by **Banks2Pierce** » Mon Jul 6, 2020 5:38 pm

I think we've got to treat these like regular season games or we'll be majorly flat-footed in the playoffs against a pretty good team. Maybe take the pedal off in the tail end of the back to back or in the last 1 or 2 if we've proven to be at a good level.

captain green · Post #8 » by **captain green** » Mon Jul 6, 2020 7:44 pm

So the only thing we can achieve is 2nd seed. We have young guys I'd play them preserve our injury history player to about 8 or 10 minute of there regular minutes, hell maybe more. I like our chances due to this is where Brad has an edge butler back to back type thingy. I'd personally not preserve the Jays though let them shine.

celticfan42487 · Post #9 » by **celticfan42487** » Mon Jul 6, 2020 9:07 pm

shackles10 wrote:The good thing is every other team, whether it be in the 8 remaining games or the first round of the playoffs is in the same situation as us. They’re unsure how to manage it too. So while I don’t believe in reactionary coaching being very successful normally, this isn’t a normal situation. If we’re looking pretty solidly at a first round matchup with the Pacers and you see they’re playing their guys 20-25 mpg it’s unlikely they’re going to 40 mpg when we face them in the first round. If you see them going 35-40 mpg in the remaining 8 then you’ll know that too. After the first round I think we’ll see teams with little exception go to what we’re used to seeing in the playoffs anyways. Luckily anyone in the top 3 seeds should be pretty automatic, if rosters don’t change, for advancing after the Dipo news.

Yeah I see zero difference between the 3 and 2 seed this year. Both avoid MIL, neither get home court.

I do expect with no Oladipo, and with the 76ers Embiid having months layoff to build back up, no road games which killed the 76ers all season, that the 76ers should finish with a better record than the Pacers after the 8 games and get that 5th seed.

But again with... just no teams really being in game shape it's hard to know.

I think the only priority is to keep our 3rd seed, which we have currently a 2.5 game lead with 8 games left. (I guess our one game in hand advantage counts for nothing here).

If possible I'd like to avoid the 76ers in the first round, but if we can't while holding onto the 3rd seed then that also means that team just F'd up like they have been all season and maybe that's a good thing.

I do think some players in this conference get a pretty big boost from this layoff: Kemba for his knee, Hayward for his entire body. Embiid for his entire body. Lowry, Gasol, Ibaka for the Raps could for old age. But with Lowry (34) and Gasol (35) it might be too short of a turn around for their old bodies to turn back on. Should be fine by the time they need those guys to play in the second round though, that'll be a month's worth of games.

jirrit · Post #10 » by **jirrit** » Tue Jul 7, 2020 8:52 pm

Is there any word on the rumored homecourt advantages teams would get? Like starting with possession every quarter or getting an extra time-out or etc or is it just gonna be best of 7?

Post #11 » by **Parliament10** » Tue Jul 7, 2020 9:29 pm

jirrit wrote:Is there any word on the rumored homecourt advantages teams would get? Like starting with possession every quarter or getting an extra time-out or etc or is it just gonna be best of 7?

Read on Twitter

Post #12 » by **sully00** » Wed Jul 8, 2020 2:39 pm

One interesting concept for the C's is that this format is going to be a lot like international play which our guys got a pretty good taste of last summer. That is the approach I would look to take. Play to win but your not going to do anything nuts as far as playing time and rotations. None of that really helps Boston in that its depth and match options tend to be its advantage not riding one or two guys for 40+ mins.

Post #13 » by **sully00** » Wed Jul 8, 2020 2:46 pm

The Nets situation is getting weird they are going to be missing half their roster. I am not a fan of getting rid of conferences permanently but they should think about something for that 8th seed in the East this year. Their are 4 teams in the West that are going to be in ORL and might have a better record than both ORL and BRK and half to go home.

celticfan42487 · Post #14 » by **celticfan42487** » Thu Jul 9, 2020 1:55 am

sully00 wrote:The Nets situation is getting weird they are going to be missing half their roster. I am not a fan of getting rid of conferences permanently but they should think about something for that 8th seed in the East this year. Their are 4 teams in the West that are going to be in ORL and might have a better record than both ORL and BRK and half to go home.

I think this would have been resolved if we just went straight to the playoffs. Maybe just give teams extra days off between games to account for them still getting into game shape in the first round.

If it wasn't for the Pelicans I'm certain that's what the NBA would have done. So as a result of them wanting to do anything to get Zion in the playoffs they'll now have a Beal less Warriors and a Nets less Nets play in the final 8 games.

Wouldn't be surprised if Zion averages a Harden level 12 FTA/g in this restart season. They'll probably call endless AND1s for him.

celticfan42487 · Post #15 » by **celticfan42487** » Mon Jul 13, 2020 3:27 pm

Welp, I guess we got our answer.

Preseason games it is

https://basketball.realgm.com/wiretap/258772/Seeding-Games-Will-Largely-Be-Treated-By-Teams-Like-Preseason

The_Ghost_of_JB · Post #16 » by **The_Ghost_of_JB** » Mon Jul 13, 2020 5:04 pm

Seedings generally don't matter for most teams with no HCA but if the celtics don't want to get bounced in the first round they have to avoid Philly. Maybe gauge how the Sixers are doing then decide to treat the game like a real game or give Edward 40 minutes and tell him to shoot 30 shots. Of course who knows if that is even possible at this point to avoid them.

Post #17 » by **Smitty731** » Mon Jul 13, 2020 7:25 pm

The only reason you want #2 vs #3 is for the easier first round matchup. Beyond that, you avoid Milwaukee until the ECF and you get the Raptors in the second round most likely anyway.

FWIW, Stevens said today that his plan will be to play a normal rotation at the start of the 8 seeding games and then see where things are at.

Most teams are going to treat it like the two weeks in April before the playoffs. Play guys enough to avoid rust, but don't push it. And if you are fighting for a playoff spot, then you push hard. If you're entirely out, sit everyone of consequence and close with young guys.

Curmudgeon · Post #18 » by **Curmudgeon** » Mon Jul 13, 2020 8:46 pm

No need to go all out in the 8 "play in" games. In the worst case they drop to 4th place and have to play Miami or the Pacers sans Oladipo instead of the Sixers. Put me down for that, although Miami is a dangerous team, as dangerous IMHO as the Sixers. If the Celtics get by the first round it will be Toronto in the second round and then Milwaukee if they get that far.

BTshred · Post #19 » by **BTshred** » Wed Jul 22, 2020 5:48 pm

No, not going to be treated like preseason. They need to treat the games way more seriously than preseason, and compete for the 2nd seed against Toronto and they can't drop behind Miami or Philly. Also, Celtics have been one of the best teams on the road in the NBA and they have a good schedule with games against Memphis Portland Washington Brooklyn Orlando so they should steal the 2 seed seed from Raptors.

Post #20 » by **sully00** » Wed Jul 29, 2020 4:10 pm

I think I would look at this way. I think Brad will go with his normal rotations with the top of the roster and be very careful with Walker. I would expect a lot more of Waters and Edwards over those 8 games than we usually see. Mostly to protect Walker but Boston did not add a hired gun off the bench and these two are Brad's only real options and they are playing pretty well. I think you may see more of Langford as well not because he is necessarily ready for post season play but because Green and Semi are who they are while they need some mins to get ready for the post season they are not players who could increase their production in an expanded role should someone go down. Figure something happens to one of the starters I would think Brad leans on Grant Williams and Langford could take on some of Williams usage. Brad could also just shorten things up but best be prepared.

Robert Williams and the other reserve bigs need mins as well and need to be ready. Poireir looked awful to me last night. Tako looks close. Teams that can may look to go really big against Boston and just from a foul standpoint these guys have to be able to play. Outside of Kanter Boston's bigs are very foul prone, now that is because everyone besides Kanter may play hard on the defensive end.