OT: COVID-19 thread #3

[dice]

You guys remember Fred Savage's big brother from Wonder Years? The doofus who decided to keep playing with the pet hamster until he accidentally vacuumed it and killed it? That fictional character is the same personality type as Trump. Just a moron. At least Wayne kind of felt bad about it. Trump is having a laugh to the bank.

went looking for a particular clip of that show to respond with and got sucked down a wonder years rabbit hole. damn you

[dice]

I'm worried that we are literally living through the beginning a period of history, at least in the states, similar to the dark ages.

I talked to a friend today who had a huge covid scare less than 3 weeks ago. He was out fishing for 8 hours with someone who ended up in the emergency room for covid symptoms. The guy was such enough that he feared for his life.

He and his wife were tested and fortunately the tests were negative. In the mean time panic ensued, emails and phone calls were sent out, quarentines happened.

Fast forward 3 weeks to our discussion today, and he proceded to unload a whole new load of conspiracy on me. Florida clinics are reporting 98 percent positives he heard. Covid patients are tested tens of times and reported as new cases every time. Emergency rooms only usually have a few open beds anyways so overflowing emergency rooms don't really mean anything. I can't remember them all, but there were at least 5 whoppers I hadn't heard yet.

Long story short, after fearing for his life, and his wife in hysterics over the scare, 3 weeks later it's now all a conspiracy.

I don't even really know what to say to him. He is still being safe thankfully, but the politics are frying his brain.

He's acting as a person of reason but speaking and story telling like a cultist.

anybody suggesting that florida is OVERreporting cases hasn't been paying attention

[musiqsoulchild]

From the White House:

"Science will not get in the way of kids returning back to school."

Well, **** you too. And the mighty horse you rode on.

[MrSparkle]

You guys remember Fred Savage's big brother from Wonder Years? The doofus who decided to keep playing with the pet hamster until he accidentally vacuumed it and killed it? That fictional character is the same personality type as Trump. Just a moron. At least Wayne kind of felt bad about it. Trump is having a laugh to the bank.

went looking for a particular clip of that show to respond with and got sucked down a wonder years rabbit hole. damn you

[The Box Office]

https://truthout.org/articles/its-time-to-shut-the-country-down-and-pay-people-to-stay-home/

Agreed. It's time. But you know, Trump and the GOP would rather see us die from this.

[PlayerUp]

also, pfizer hoping to have 200 mil doses of vaccine ready by november. the problem is that the vaccines being worked on are designed to create antibodies, but experts say that this won't necessarily lead to immunity. and even if it does, it may only last 2-3 months

Basically covid-19 may still be with us forever and still kill us even years later. Everyone will eventually get it and it will become the new deadlier flu. Hopefully though I'm sure we'll find an effective vaccine that causes lesser complications.

Question really is when will we all be safe to the point we can go out without worrying? Where we can go out without having to wear a mask? 2 years? 5 years? 10 years? Never?

[musiqsoulchild]

also, pfizer hoping to have 200 mil doses of vaccine ready by november. the problem is that the vaccines being worked on are designed to create antibodies, but experts say that this won't necessarily lead to immunity. and even if it does, it may only last 2-3 months

Basically covid-19 may still be with us forever and still kill us even years later. Everyone will eventually get it and it will become the new deadlier flu. Hopefully though I'm sure we'll find an effective vaccine that causes lesser complications.

Question really is when will we all be safe to the point we can go out without worrying? Where we can go out without having to wear a mask? 2 years? 5 years? 10 years? Never?

The answer to that I think will be individual.

And that's why first world countries should quickly switch to a basic income model with healthcare taken care of.

I am going to wear a mask for as long as I feel comfortable.

[PlayerUp]

And that's why first world countries should quickly switch to a basic income model with healthcare taken care of.

I hope you're not expecting this. This isn't something Trump nor Biden plans to move forward with and Congress can't even agree on a police reform which both parties want. Not saying what you want is a bad idea just saying there is virtually a 0% chance of this quickly happening with the current/new potential upcoming congress.

[musiqsoulchild]

And that's why first world countries should quickly switch to a basic income model with healthcare taken care of.

I hope you're not expecting this. This isn't something Trump nor Biden plans to move forward with and Congress can't even agree on a police reform which both parties want. Not saying what you want is a bad idea just saying there is virtually a 0% chance of this quickly happening with the current/new potential upcoming congress.

I think you are underestimating what we are about to see in the next year or so.

This coming recession will make 2009 look easy.

[PlayerUp]

I think you are underestimating what we are about to see in the next year or so.

This coming recession will make 2009 look easy.

We're already in the beginning of a recession and yes it's going to get worse. It's a global recession though with 98%+ of the world being heavily affected by it.

[TheStig]

And that's why first world countries should quickly switch to a basic income model with healthcare taken care of.

I hope you're not expecting this. This isn't something Trump nor Biden plans to move forward with and Congress can't even agree on a police reform which both parties want. Not saying what you want is a bad idea just saying there is virtually a 0% chance of this quickly happening with the current/new potential upcoming congress.

I think you are underestimating what we are about to see in the next year or so.

This coming recession will make 2009 look easy.

How can you say that? Mcconnell says we've had too much stimulus and the $600 a week boost to unemployment is discouraging people from working

[PlayerUp]

Current Death Ratio in the US (Confirmed Deaths from COVID-19 / Confirmed Cases of COVID-19)

3.78%

[dice]

I hope you're not expecting this. This isn't something Trump nor Biden plans to move forward with and Congress can't even agree on a police reform which both parties want. Not saying what you want is a bad idea just saying there is virtually a 0% chance of this quickly happening with the current/new potential upcoming congress.

I think you are underestimating what we are about to see in the next year or so.

This coming recession will make 2009 look easy.

How can you say that? Mcconnell says we've had too much stimulus and the $600 a week boost to unemployment is discouraging people from working

the stock market is strangely discounting the possibility that we're in for tough times ahead. i almost shorted america at the end of last month and if we keep climbing in the next couple of weeks i likely will at the end of this month. each of the last 2 recessions we had a recovery before the long-term drop

-april 2000 - 14% drop from previous month's record high
-sept. 1 - height of recovery - back up to 98% of record high
-after that 5 mo. recovery, market lost half its value over the course of 2 years

-5 year recovery

-early july 2007 - 12% drop after barely reaching record high from 7 years earlier
-late oct. 2007 - full recovery to another new record high
-after that 4 mo. recovery, market lost 57% of value over the course of a year and a half

-4 year recovery back to record high plus another 7 years of record highs

-feb. 2020 - whopping 36% drop in less than 2 months
-as of today, we've recovered 86% of those losses
-after 4 mo. of recovery thus far...?

[dice]

disney world reopens on same day FL shatters NY's single day case record:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/nicholasreimann/2020/07/12/florida-shatters-national-record-with-over-15000-new-coronavirus-cases/#467e495e5aae

meanwhile, it looks like AZ might be turning the corner (?):

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/arizona-coronavirus-cases.html

What did Arizona due to change the course so quickly?

as it turns out...by not testing enough. not strategically as a matter of deception, however. they just don't have enough tests available

most countries got testing under control months ago. wtf is going on here?

[dice]

From the White House:

"Science will not get in the way of kids returning back to school."

Well, **** you too. And the mighty horse you rode on.

if we paid attention to the science to begin with and had even COMPETENT leadership at the top, we could much more realistically send most if not all kids back to school in the fall.

chicago is tentatively planning hybrid model at this point, w/ kids spending 2 days in the classroom, 2 days at home learning independently, and 1 day being taught virtually. teachers union wants a decision now, preferably w/ remote instruction

[TheStig]

I think you are underestimating what we are about to see in the next year or so.

This coming recession will make 2009 look easy.

How can you say that? Mcconnell says we've had too much stimulus and the $600 a week boost to unemployment is discouraging people from working

the stock market is strangely discounting the possibility that we're in for tough times ahead. i almost shorted america at the end of last month and if we keep climbing in the next couple of weeks i likely will at the end of this month. each of the last 2 recessions we had a recovery before the long-term drop

-april 2000 - 14% drop from previous month's record high
-sept. 1 - height of recovery - back up to 98% of record high
-after 5 mo. recovery, market lost half its value over the course of 2 years

-5 year recovery

-early july 2007 - 12% drop after barely reaching record high from 7 years earlier
-late oct. 2007 - full recovery to another new record high
-after 4 mo. recovery, market loses 57% of value over the course of a year and a half

-4 year recovery back to record high plus another 7 years of record highs

-feb. 2020 - whopping 36% drop in less than 2 months
-as of today, we've recovered 86% of those losses
-after 4 mo. of recovery thus far...?

Dice, everything is propped up now. The unemployed are getting unemployment and $600 a month, small business are getting payroll covered, fed is buying corporate debt, main street lending program is giving bigger companies money.

Once the giant unemployment people have no money, small business run out of PPP, there has to be a drop.

But I think they'll extend them. No one wants to be to blame for that in an election year. Watch out for next year if things don't open up.

[dice]

How can you say that? Mcconnell says we've had too much stimulus and the $600 a week boost to unemployment is discouraging people from working

the stock market is strangely discounting the possibility that we're in for tough times ahead. i almost shorted america at the end of last month and if we keep climbing in the next couple of weeks i likely will at the end of this month. each of the last 2 recessions we had a recovery before the long-term drop

-april 2000 - 14% drop from previous month's record high
-sept. 1 - height of recovery - back up to 98% of record high
-after 5 mo. recovery, market lost half its value over the course of 2 years

-5 year recovery

-early july 2007 - 12% drop after barely reaching record high from 7 years earlier
-late oct. 2007 - full recovery to another new record high
-after 4 mo. recovery, market loses 57% of value over the course of a year and a half

-4 year recovery back to record high plus another 7 years of record highs

-feb. 2020 - whopping 36% drop in less than 2 months
-as of today, we've recovered 86% of those losses
-after 4 mo. of recovery thus far...?

Dice, everything is propped up now. The unemployed are getting unemployment and $600 a month, small business are getting payroll covered, fed is buying corporate debt, main street lending program is giving bigger companies money.

Once the giant unemployment people have no money, small business run out of PPP, there has to be a drop.

But I think they'll extend them. No one wants to be to blame for that in an election year. Watch out for next year if things don't open up.

true. the size of the next stimulus is a big factor in the short term

1/3 of americans missed their rent/mortage payments last month. that's a disaster waiting to happen

[TheStig]

the stock market is strangely discounting the possibility that we're in for tough times ahead. i almost shorted america at the end of last month and if we keep climbing in the next couple of weeks i likely will at the end of this month. each of the last 2 recessions we had a recovery before the long-term drop

-april 2000 - 14% drop from previous month's record high
-sept. 1 - height of recovery - back up to 98% of record high
-after 5 mo. recovery, market lost half its value over the course of 2 years

-5 year recovery

-early july 2007 - 12% drop after barely reaching record high from 7 years earlier
-late oct. 2007 - full recovery to another new record high
-after 4 mo. recovery, market loses 57% of value over the course of a year and a half

-4 year recovery back to record high plus another 7 years of record highs

-feb. 2020 - whopping 36% drop in less than 2 months
-as of today, we've recovered 86% of those losses
-after 4 mo. of recovery thus far...?

Dice, everything is propped up now. The unemployed are getting unemployment and $600 a month, small business are getting payroll covered, fed is buying corporate debt, main street lending program is giving bigger companies money.

Once the giant unemployment people have no money, small business run out of PPP, there has to be a drop.

But I think they'll extend them. No one wants to be to blame for that in an election year. Watch out for next year if things don't open up.

true. the size of the next stimulus is a big factor in the short term

1/3 of americans missed their rent/mortage payments last month. that's a disaster waiting to happen

I think that people are not paying their rent and mortgage because they can. The system for the most part is propped up and the money is flowing. That's not to say some can't. But for the most part there are no evictions and mortgage forbarence.

I do think there will be a wave of evictions when the evictions can start to proceed. It's hard to make up that big chunk of money and landlords who haven't seen rent in months and need to pay a lawyer to evict will not be open to compromise.

[dice]

Dice, everything is propped up now. The unemployed are getting unemployment and $600 a month, small business are getting payroll covered, fed is buying corporate debt, main street lending program is giving bigger companies money.

Once the giant unemployment people have no money, small business run out of PPP, there has to be a drop.

But I think they'll extend them. No one wants to be to blame for that in an election year. Watch out for next year if things don't open up.

true. the size of the next stimulus is a big factor in the short term

1/3 of americans missed their rent/mortage payments last month. that's a disaster waiting to happen

I think that people are not paying their rent and mortgage because they can. The system for the most part is propped up and the money is flowing. That's not to say some can't. But for the most part there are no evictions and mortgage forbarence.

I do think there will be a wave of evictions when the evictions can start to proceed. It's hard to make up that big chunk of money and landlords who haven't seen rent in months and need to pay a lawyer to evict will not be open to compromise.

the vast majority of landlords won't just forgive a month's rent, though. if anything, they charge a late fee

[TheStig]

true. the size of the next stimulus is a big factor in the short term

1/3 of americans missed their rent/mortage payments last month. that's a disaster waiting to happen

I think that people are not paying their rent and mortgage because they can. The system for the most part is propped up and the money is flowing. That's not to say some can't. But for the most part there are no evictions and mortgage forbarence.

I do think there will be a wave of evictions when the evictions can start to proceed. It's hard to make up that big chunk of money and landlords who haven't seen rent in months and need to pay a lawyer to evict will not be open to compromise.

the vast majority of landlords won't just forgive a month's rent, though. if anything, they charge a late fee

I agree. I was saying that a lot will be months behind. And you really can't blame them, landlords have a lot of expenses.