ImageImageImage

2020 NBA Draft Discussion (18th and 31st pick)

Moderators: Dirk, HMFFL, Mavrelous

B8RcDeMktfxC
General Manager
Posts: 9,591
And1: 6,415
Joined: Nov 23, 2018
Location: C'MON, COME GET THE FUKKIN BALL

Re: 2020 NBA Draft Discussion 

Post#121 » by B8RcDeMktfxC » Thu Jul 16, 2020 4:26 am

Interesting post. Let me cut and concentrate on the #18 position .. I don't see the Mavs trading up .. for one thing what assets even if they had a specific desire?

aguiar95 wrote:Here's my Mavs Top 40 Big Board:

Tier IV: #18 candidates (5th starter/8th man from the bench, probably will be available at #18).

15) P. Achiuwa
16) S. Bey
17) P. Williams
18) A. Nesmith
19) J. Green
20) J. Smith
21) T. Maledon

Tier V: #31 candidates (15mpg bench role players, probably will be available at #31).

23) A. Pokusevski
25) L. Bolmaro


for comparison the Knicks board is currently looking at places in the draft where the Knicks have no real interest and there is no wave of opinion to trade into these places (Knicks picks are somewhere in the top 9 depending on lotto luck and #27)

#13 - Aleksej Pokuševski
#14 - Aaron Nesmith
#15 - RJ Hampton
#16 - Saddiq Bey
#17 - Tyrese Maxey
#18 - Patrick Williams
#19 - Precious Achiuwa
#20 - Tyrell Terry

For the Knicks Poku is a swing for the fences to recreate KP in one single person. (fwiw, I think that's a solid strategy for them if he falls somewhere into a range to which they can trade up - eg using Mavs future picks). But that doesn't have any importance for the Mavs with the real KP in hand.

I see the argument that the Mavs need more DFS than Seth Curry, but I don't really agree. Of all of those people, if the Mavs have a choice at #18 I think they should take Maledon (BPA). Then probably Nesmith. Then I'm struggling to distinguish who's next. Maxey? Saddiq Bey? It really becomes a tough choice there.
JJP
Pro Prospect
Posts: 752
And1: 172
Joined: Jul 04, 2020
   

Re: 2020 NBA Draft Discussion 

Post#122 » by JJP » Thu Jul 16, 2020 11:52 am

B8RcDeMktfxC wrote:
I see the argument that the Mavs need more DFS than Seth Curry, but I don't really agree. Of all of those people, if the Mavs have a choice at #18 I think they should take Maledon (BPA). Then probably Nesmith. Then I'm struggling to distinguish who's next. Maxey? Saddiq Bey? It really becomes a tough choice there.


I've actually had this argument with myself. Points off the bench or defense. I'm not sure it's that simple, but as a fan there's only so much you can know.

For the record, I haven't seen Nesmith fall to #18 since a February mock draft, but I get the concept. Let's say Maledon or Bey at #18 instead of someone with a strong defensive upside already baked into his NBA profile. Maledon might be a bit of a project as he is a little rough, but he is a real energizer bunny according to scouts. It's a bit uncertain whether he can produce points with his shot or catch-on to the NBA game. However, a high-energy guy is hard to find, so there is real upside. Bey is the opposite. A very good player on both sides of the ball but limited athletically and whose profile says he probably won't get that much better... (but maybe that's good enough).

The problem we have as fans is we don't understand how motivated or how smart any of these guys are. Carlisle loved the Brunson pick only after they interviewed him (according to Carlisle). It's unclear how we as fans can measure something like that. For example, one of the things DFS does really well is communicate well on the court. He also (apparently) was a quick study on Carlisle's switching defenses.

I took a very optimistic approach to my pick with a mid-1st pick. I picked a guy who might eventually find his way into the starting lineup with his upside, and someone who would eventually complement the starters rather than the bench players. Although that might be S. Bey, it's less likely to be Maledon given the learning curve. If you're going to acquire someone to complement the starters at age 18-20, they better have some defensive awareness. I feel like I don't need the points right away given the current makeup of our lineup. I'd rather have a smart athlete who can play defense.

But figuring out who to pick may be totally related to what lineup you envision that player in. I'll be the first to admit that there's a need for a good perimeter shooter in the rotation. But I think a smart, mobile, high-energy wing is a real need for this team right now.
aguiar95
Bench Warmer
Posts: 1,347
And1: 612
Joined: Mar 10, 2020
     

Re: 2020 NBA Draft Discussion 

Post#123 » by aguiar95 » Thu Jul 16, 2020 12:52 pm

B8RcDeMktfxC wrote:Interesting post. Let me cut and concentrate on the #18 position .. I don't see the Mavs trading up .. for one thing what assets even if they had a specific desire?

I see the argument that the Mavs need more DFS than Seth Curry, but I don't really agree. Of all of those people, if the Mavs have a choice at #18 I think they should take Maledon (BPA). Then probably Nesmith. Then I'm struggling to distinguish who's next. Maxey? Saddiq Bey? It really becomes a tough choice there.


Yeah, our trade up is very unlikely. If it was up to me, it would be #18/#31/Brunson. Not sure which team would take it.

The thing I went for in my big board (obviously) was the fit with our guys. Currently we have a logjam on the PG position and I like them all, reason why most PGs like Maledon are lower on my board.

Looking at our core, there are glaring holes in both forward spots:

Doncic: PG/SF
Wright: PG/SG
Brunson: PG
Hardaway: SG/SF
Curry: PG/SG
DFS: SF/PF
Kleber: PF/C
Porzingis: PF/C
Powell: C

That's why I went with mostly with SF/PF guys at #18/#31.
B8RcDeMktfxC
General Manager
Posts: 9,591
And1: 6,415
Joined: Nov 23, 2018
Location: C'MON, COME GET THE FUKKIN BALL

Re: 2020 NBA Draft Discussion 

Post#124 » by B8RcDeMktfxC » Thu Jul 16, 2020 3:46 pm

JJP wrote:
B8RcDeMktfxC wrote:
I see the argument that the Mavs need more DFS than Seth Curry, but I don't really agree. Of all of those people, if the Mavs have a choice at #18 I think they should take Maledon (BPA). Then probably Nesmith. Then I'm struggling to distinguish who's next. Maxey? Saddiq Bey? It really becomes a tough choice there.


I've actually had this argument with myself. Points off the bench or defense. I'm not sure it's that simple, but as a fan there's only so much you can know.

For the record, I haven't seen Nesmith fall to #18 since a February mock draft, but I get the concept. Let's say Maledon or Bey at #18 instead of someone with a strong defensive upside already baked into his NBA profile. Maledon might be a bit of a project as he is a little rough, but he is a real energizer bunny according to scouts. It's a bit uncertain whether he can produce points with his shot or catch-on to the NBA game. However, a high-energy guy is hard to find, so there is real upside. Bey is the opposite. A very good player on both sides of the ball but limited athletically and whose profile says he probably won't get that much better... (but maybe that's good enough).

The problem we have as fans is we don't understand how motivated or how smart any of these guys are. Carlisle loved the Brunson pick only after they interviewed him (according to Carlisle). It's unclear how we as fans can measure something like that. For example, one of the things DFS does really well is communicate well on the court. He also (apparently) was a quick study on Carlisle's switching defenses.

I took a very optimistic approach to my pick with a mid-1st pick. I picked a guy who might eventually find his way into the starting lineup with his upside, and someone who would eventually complement the starters rather than the bench players. Although that might be S. Bey, it's less likely to be Maledon given the learning curve. If you're going to acquire someone to complement the starters at age 18-20, they better have some defensive awareness. I feel like I don't need the points right away given the current makeup of our lineup. I'd rather have a smart athlete who can play defense.

But figuring out who to pick may be totally related to what lineup you envision that player in. I'll be the first to admit that there's a need for a good perimeter shooter in the rotation. But I think a smart, mobile, high-energy wing is a real need for this team right now.


Great post. I should have said to at the start that I think DFS is smashing player and in general quite heavily underrated by non-Mavs fans. And I'm very much on the side of having smart players who can play defence.

I also agree with the stuff about how hard it is for us to make reasonable guesses about smartness/motivation. With Maledon I'm heartened in that regard by how highly the French coaches had him before last years Euros. But maybe they didn't have a surfeit of competition. And I think it is reasonable to expect he would be contributing to a playoff team (with some notion of development) by the end of year 2. Again, even after the playoffs, because no HCA & somewhat weird rosters it's going to be hard to evaluate where the Mavs stand in "win now" terms.
B8RcDeMktfxC
General Manager
Posts: 9,591
And1: 6,415
Joined: Nov 23, 2018
Location: C'MON, COME GET THE FUKKIN BALL

Re: 2020 NBA Draft Discussion 

Post#125 » by B8RcDeMktfxC » Thu Jul 16, 2020 4:02 pm

aguiar95 wrote:
B8RcDeMktfxC wrote:Interesting post. Let me cut and concentrate on the #18 position .. I don't see the Mavs trading up .. for one thing what assets even if they had a specific desire?

I see the argument that the Mavs need more DFS than Seth Curry, but I don't really agree. Of all of those people, if the Mavs have a choice at #18 I think they should take Maledon (BPA). Then probably Nesmith. Then I'm struggling to distinguish who's next. Maxey? Saddiq Bey? It really becomes a tough choice there.


Yeah, our trade up is very unlikely. If it was up to me, it would be #18/#31/Brunson. Not sure which team would take it.

The thing I went for in my big board (obviously) was the fit with our guys. Currently we have a logjam on the PG position and I like them all, reason why most PGs like Maledon are lower on my board.

Looking at our core, there are glaring holes in both forward spots:

Doncic: PG/SF
Wright: PG/SG
Brunson: PG
Hardaway: SG/SF
Curry: PG/SG
DFS: SF/PF
Kleber: PF/C
Porzingis: PF/C
Powell: C

That's why I went with mostly with SF/PF guys at #18/#31.

Some kind of SF who can shoot/wing makes sense to me in terms of fit. I just wonder whether fit today is that important for the Mavs. Again, maybe even after the playoffs that will be hard to answer.
[edit] Also, I'm probably not a keen on Brunson as maybe you are. So I'd make your trade if there was an attainable and desirable target and not be too worried about just trading him in general.
JJP
Pro Prospect
Posts: 752
And1: 172
Joined: Jul 04, 2020
   

Re: 2020 NBA Draft Discussion 

Post#126 » by JJP » Thu Jul 16, 2020 7:24 pm

B8RcDeMktfxC wrote:
JJP wrote:
B8RcDeMktfxC wrote:I also agree with the stuff about how hard it is for us to make reasonable guesses about smartness/motivation. With Maledon I'm heartened in that regard by how highly the French coaches had him before last years Euros. But maybe they didn't have a surfeit of competition. And I think it is reasonable to expect he would be contributing to a playoff team (with some notion of development) by the end of year 2. Again, even after the playoffs, because no HCA & somewhat weird rosters it's going to be hard to evaluate where the Mavs stand in "win now" terms.


That's the thing. If the Mavericks draft Maledon over P. Williams, I would trust their judgement. This is not a case where I feel any need to defend my choice.

The last few drafts, I have felt the Mavericks have made the best call they can make. I thought Dennis Smith was the best player available in 2017. Even Justin Anderson can still play in the NBA and he was picked at #21 in 2015. The picks were well thought-out even if they didn't pan out as very good players. We have to remember that a mid-first player is largely a crap shoot historically. Most don't find their way into a starting lineup even if they make it to free agency.

Plus, the Mavs have not had that many 1st-round picks relative to other teams in the last 20 years. There's been only ten 1st round picks in the last twenty years. The Don Nelson era was hit-and-miss when they did have a pick. I thought Cherokee Parks over Corliss Williamson was lunacy. But then they had great value in Josh Howard. For whatever reason, I think the metrics for getting value in the draft has been sharpened for the Mavericks in the last few years. At least I'm hoping that's true.
B8RcDeMktfxC
General Manager
Posts: 9,591
And1: 6,415
Joined: Nov 23, 2018
Location: C'MON, COME GET THE FUKKIN BALL

Re: 2020 NBA Draft Discussion 

Post#127 » by B8RcDeMktfxC » Fri Jul 17, 2020 12:55 am

JJP wrote:That's the thing. If the Mavericks draft Maledon over P. Williams, I would trust their judgement. This is not a case where I feel any need to defend my choice.

The last few drafts, I have felt the Mavericks have made the best call they can make. I thought Dennis Smith was the best player available in 2017.


In retrospect DSJ looks like a bad choice and the Mavs managed to shovel the hot potato on to the Knicks. Obviously he's been in a terrible situation coaching & playing time-wise there, but this year he mostly looked like not even ready for the G-league.

Looking down the list below him is disheartening. Obviously Spider and Bam at 13,14, resp, are way aways from anything DSJ could ever hope to be and John Collins, Jarrett Allen, OG Anunoby, Pasečņiks, Kuzma and White seem very hard to catch up to even if everything somehow miraculously changed. And frankly one could throw in Luke Kennard and maybe, for upside, Harry Giles and Malik Monk as well. That's a lot of missing.

Here's DeanonDraft (back when he was obsessive) hedging his bets as hard as he could and still coming up with nothing really to make you expect DSJ to thrive in the NBA.

deanondraft.com/2017/06/22/is-dennis-smith-jr-a-loser/
JJP
Pro Prospect
Posts: 752
And1: 172
Joined: Jul 04, 2020
   

Re: 2020 NBA Draft Discussion 

Post#128 » by JJP » Fri Jul 17, 2020 2:00 am

B8RcDeMktfxC wrote:Looking down the list below him is disheartening. Obviously Spider and Bam at 13,14, resp, are way aways from anything DSJ could ever hope to be and John Collins, Jarrett Allen, OG Anunoby, Pasečņiks, Kuzma and White seem very hard to catch up to even if everything somehow miraculously changed. And frankly one could throw in Luke Kennard and maybe, for upside, Harry Giles and Malik Monk as well. That's a lot of missing.


There's no question now that DSJ wasn't the best pick.... but at that moment, I remember thinking that his metrics were really what the Mavs were looking for in that draft. And let's face it, he was good enough even after a year to fool the Knicks into trading Porzingas for him (and picks). How insane was that?

Probably every team in the NBA has one of those threads that begin with "We really suck in the draft" and has the picks to back it up. Which really just proves I guess how fortunate we are when we get a Dirk or a Luca. Both of those guys had disbelievers too.
B8RcDeMktfxC
General Manager
Posts: 9,591
And1: 6,415
Joined: Nov 23, 2018
Location: C'MON, COME GET THE FUKKIN BALL

Re: 2020 NBA Draft Discussion 

Post#129 » by B8RcDeMktfxC » Fri Jul 17, 2020 2:28 am

JJP wrote:There's no question now that DSJ wasn't the best pick.... but at that moment, I remember thinking that his metrics were really what the Mavs were looking for in that draft.

But, again, look at that DeanOnDraft article from the 2017 draft that I linked above showing how good draft commentators were sceptical of DSJ despite some of the metrics.

And let's face it, he was good enough even after a year to fool the Knicks into trading Porzingas for him (and picks). How insane was that?


Nah. He was a throw in to that trade to make the salaries work. The trade from the Knicks pov was the Knicks dumping 30m in salary (in the form of THJ and Courtney), taking what picks they could and not having to sign KP to a max contract.

Why did they want the latter (not to have to sign KP)? There's debate over tha,t particularly over side issues: friction since the Melo/Jackson out summer at the end of KP year 2, Janis x the Knicks FO, KP not liking the coaches the FO kept employing .. and perhaps the misuse of Frank Ntilikina, the way the FO sawed off Willi Hernangomes, the allegations ... whatever ... there was a laundry list. However, the long and the short of it is that the Knicks FO didn't care about KP and was absolutely desperate to make space so that they could sign both KD and Kyrie - both of whom they thought they were a lock to sign - and gamed themselves.

Probably every team in the NBA has one of those threads that begin with "We really suck in the draft" and has the picks to back it up. Which really just proves I guess how fortunate we are when we get a Dirk or a Luca. Both of those guys had disbelievers too.


Sure. I'm not saying the Mavs haven't drafted pretty well overall/on average (even excluding doing great in engineering Luka), just that I don't think DSJ is part of that argument.
JJP
Pro Prospect
Posts: 752
And1: 172
Joined: Jul 04, 2020
   

Re: 2020 NBA Draft Discussion 

Post#130 » by JJP » Fri Jul 17, 2020 1:19 pm

B8RcDeMktfxC wrote:
JJP wrote:But, again, look at that DeanOnDraft article from the 2017 draft that I linked above showing how good draft commentators were sceptical of DSJ despite some of the metrics.


Oh I agree with the deanondean article now. But that wasn't really typical then. There were more contrary positive views and the case could certainly be made otherwise. If the deanondean article had been the default opinion, he wouldn't have been drafted at that spot and\or the Mavs would not have taken him. It was either Dennis Smith or Nikitna. Neither one will likely pan out, but those were the two choices at that moment by writers and pundits.

My opinion on this - slightly different than yours - was that with players the Mavs drafted most recently were largely well thought out relative to where the player might have been drafted by any other team. They weren't going against the odds. Back in the 1990s and early part of the 2000s, I believe several of the players drafted were not odds on favorites to be drafted in those spots. I think there's less gambling now, and perhaps more data-driven information available.

This opinion is entirely debatable. It could just be coincidental. But I believe the Mavs front office is at least slightly better at this than they used to be.
B8RcDeMktfxC
General Manager
Posts: 9,591
And1: 6,415
Joined: Nov 23, 2018
Location: C'MON, COME GET THE FUKKIN BALL

Re: 2020 NBA Draft Discussion 

Post#131 » by B8RcDeMktfxC » Fri Jul 17, 2020 4:48 pm

JJP wrote:
B8RcDeMktfxC wrote:
JJP wrote:But, again, look at that DeanOnDraft article from the 2017 draft that I linked above showing how good draft commentators were sceptical of DSJ despite some of the metrics.


Oh I agree with the deanondean article now. But that wasn't really typical then. There were more contrary positive views and the case could certainly be made otherwise. If the deanondean article had been the default opinion, he wouldn't have been drafted at that spot and\or the Mavs would not have taken him. It was either Dennis Smith or Nikitna. Neither one will likely pan out, but those were the two choices at that moment by writers and pundits.

My opinion on this - slightly different than yours - was that with players the Mavs drafted most recently were largely well thought out relative to where the player might have been drafted by any other team. They weren't going against the odds. Back in the 1990s and early part of the 2000s, I believe several of the players drafted were not odds on favorites to be drafted in those spots. I think there's less gambling now, and perhaps more data-driven information available.

This opinion is entirely debatable. It could just be coincidental. But I believe the Mavs front office is at least slightly better at this than they used to be.

idk :D I just combed through the last 10 years of Mavs draft escapades and Luka aside it's not a pretty sight! Let's hope you are right that they've improved!

Just to be contrarian :D ....

Anderson (a #21) is basically out of the league (but is going to the bubble because the Nets have so many absentees).

The next 11 immediately below him in the draft are: Bobby Portis (#22), Hollis-Jefferson (#23), Ty Jones (#24), Milutinov (#26) (who didn't come to the US and is now a pretty decent EuroLeague player), Larry Nance Jr (#27), Kevon Looney (#30), Cedi Osman (#31) and Trez Harrell (#32). Also three others who didn't make it: Jarrell Martin, RJ Hunter and Chris McCullogh.

Ooof. :nonono:

The Mavs literally couldn't have done worse than picking Anderson and had a 75% chance of doing substantially better. (Assuming all development is equal wherever you put the players - which is obviously untrue .. but what esle can you do - at least for a first take?)
JJP
Pro Prospect
Posts: 752
And1: 172
Joined: Jul 04, 2020
   

Re: 2020 NBA Draft Discussion 

Post#132 » by JJP » Fri Jul 17, 2020 6:09 pm

B8RcDeMktfxC wrote:
JJP wrote:
B8RcDeMktfxC wrote:

The next 11 immediately below him in the draft are: Bobby Portis (#22), Hollis-Jefferson (#23), Ty Jones (#24), Milutinov (#26) (who didn't come to the US and is now a pretty decent EuroLeague player), Larry Nance Jr (#27), Kevon Looney (#30), Cedi Osman (#31) and Trez Harrell (#32). Also three others who didn't make it: Jarrell Martin, RJ Hunter and Chris McCullogh.

Ooof. :nonono:

The Mavs literally couldn't have done worse than picking Anderson and had a 75% chance of doing substantially better. (Assuming all development is equal wherever you put the players - which is obviously untrue .. but what esle can you do - at least for a first take?)


I don't mind being contrarian... what else are we going to do until play starts? It would otherwise be a dead message board? 8-)

I think every draft looks like that though doesn't it? There's always better players below you after a 5-10 years. I think you play the best odds you can at the time and hope it works out. You will fail a large percentage of the time, especially drafting outside of the top 15. I think as long as you don't go rogue for the flavor of the month (for Cowboy fans, think Quincy Carter) then you take your lumps as par for the course when drafting at 20 and below. Even Samaki Walker was probably considered a "reasonable" pick at the time.

I think advanced metrics and perhaps the introduction of the G League have helped smooth out some issues, but I think this draft is one of the more interesting ones. I think there's real value in some of these players in the mid-1st, but it's hard to know which ones will really shine after 5 years.
B8RcDeMktfxC
General Manager
Posts: 9,591
And1: 6,415
Joined: Nov 23, 2018
Location: C'MON, COME GET THE FUKKIN BALL

Re: 2020 NBA Draft Discussion 

Post#133 » by B8RcDeMktfxC » Fri Jul 17, 2020 10:21 pm

JJP wrote:
B8RcDeMktfxC wrote:
JJP wrote:The next 11 immediately below him in the draft are: Bobby Portis (#22), Hollis-Jefferson (#23), Ty Jones (#24), Milutinov (#26) (who didn't come to the US and is now a pretty decent EuroLeague player), Larry Nance Jr (#27), Kevon Looney (#30), Cedi Osman (#31) and Trez Harrell (#32). Also three others who didn't make it: Jarrell Martin, RJ Hunter and Chris McCullogh.

Ooof. :nonono:

The Mavs literally couldn't have done worse than picking Anderson and had a 75% chance of doing substantially better. (Assuming all development is equal wherever you put the players - which is obviously untrue .. but what esle can you do - at least for a first take?)


I don't mind being contrarian... what else are we going to do until play starts? It would otherwise be a dead message board? 8-)


Sorry - I meant I was being semi-contrarian and keeping a discussion going .. because , as you say, what else are we going to do. :D But you can be too. :)

I think every draft looks like that though doesn't it? There's always better players below you after a 5-10 years. I think you play the best odds you can at the time and hope it works out. You will fail a large percentage of the time, especially drafting outside of the top 15. I think as long as you don't go rogue for the flavor of the month (for Cowboy fans, think Quincy Carter) then you take your lumps as par for the course when drafting at 20 and below. Even Samaki Walker was probably considered a "reasonable" pick at the time.

I think advanced metrics and perhaps the introduction of the G League have helped smooth out some issues, but I think this draft is one of the more interesting ones. I think there's real value in some of these players in the mid-1st, but it's hard to know which ones will really shine after 5 years.


Sure. Anything outside the lottery is pretty likely to be a bust. It just so happens that that year #15-#32 is comparatively strong. (Although 2 more between #15 and #20 also flamed out.)

I mean, Anderson did 3 years at college. Didn't make the UVa starting line up for the first two. Had goodish stats as a junior, a good ACC tournament and as wikipedia puts it, "After putting up career-high numbers in scoring and other offensive categories, Anderson was named second-team All-ACC."

Not making the college 1st team until a junior, playing well against a mix of younger and meh-players, going on a heater in a random sub-NCAA tourney and still not being a star of the tourney ... that all just sounds undraftable in the abstract. Who knows - maybe the advanced stats said something different, maybe he had good workouts :shrug:
B8RcDeMktfxC
General Manager
Posts: 9,591
And1: 6,415
Joined: Nov 23, 2018
Location: C'MON, COME GET THE FUKKIN BALL

Re: 2020 NBA Draft Discussion 

Post#134 » by B8RcDeMktfxC » Fri Jul 17, 2020 10:35 pm

B8RcDeMktfxC wrote:
JJP wrote:
B8RcDeMktfxC wrote:


I don't mind being contrarian... what else are we going to do until play starts? It would otherwise be a dead message board? 8-)


Sorry - I meant I was being semi-contrarian and keeping a discussion going .. because , as you say, what else are we going to do. :D But you can be too. :)

I think every draft looks like that though doesn't it? There's always better players below you after a 5-10 years. I think you play the best odds you can at the time and hope it works out. You will fail a large percentage of the time, especially drafting outside of the top 15. I think as long as you don't go rogue for the flavor of the month (for Cowboy fans, think Quincy Carter) then you take your lumps as par for the course when drafting at 20 and below. Even Samaki Walker was probably considered a "reasonable" pick at the time.

I think advanced metrics and perhaps the introduction of the G League have helped smooth out some issues, but I think this draft is one of the more interesting ones. I think there's real value in some of these players in the mid-1st, but it's hard to know which ones will really shine after 5 years.


Sure. Anything outside the lottery is pretty likely to be a bust. It just so happens that that year #15-#32 is comparatively strong. (Although 2 more between #15 and #20 also flamed out.)

I mean, Anderson did 3 years at college. Didn't make the UVa starting line up for the first two. Had goodish stats as a junior, a good ACC tournament and as wikipedia puts it, "After putting up career-high numbers in scoring and other offensive categories, Anderson was named second-team All-ACC."

Not making the college 1st team until a junior, playing well against a mix of younger and meh-players, going on a heater in a random sub-NCAA tourney and still not being a star of the tourney ... that all just sounds undraftable in the abstract. Who knows - maybe the advanced stats said something different, maybe he had good workouts :shrug:

Interestingly - and maybe even not pure chance, but an indication that that draft may have been particularly difficult to get "right" - a lot of the top-14 are really struggling to stay in the league: Okafor (#3), Mario (#5), WCS (#6), Mudiay (#7), and Stanley Johnson (#8), and the Hornets gave up on Kaminsky (#9) in February this year.
JJP
Pro Prospect
Posts: 752
And1: 172
Joined: Jul 04, 2020
   

Re: 2020 NBA Draft Discussion 

Post#135 » by JJP » Fri Jul 17, 2020 10:58 pm

I wish there was some math that could deliver the odds of getting a quality player at specific draft slots. We'd have to define "quality player", but surely there's something like that out there already - or there should be.

Maybe "quality player" means 7 years in the league or something like that.

Las Vegas probably has those odds somewhere.
JJP
Pro Prospect
Posts: 752
And1: 172
Joined: Jul 04, 2020
   

Re: 2020 NBA Draft Discussion 

Post#136 » by JJP » Sat Jul 18, 2020 2:16 am

BTW, I've gone back to looking at Kira Lewis videos - the PG out of Alabama. He will likely now fall into the late 1st round.

Although I'm not at all sure that the Mavericks are interested in going down the PG route again, my feeling is that he really has a lot of upside. It's hard to imagine that guy not belonging in the NBA given his speed and outside shot. They would still need a bigger wing man in free agency, but if they aren't happy with the Brunson\Wright situation, then Lewis could be the best player on the board when the Mavs pick and fill those shoes.
ejs78
Assistant Coach
Posts: 4,332
And1: 1,091
Joined: Jul 03, 2015
 

Re: 2020 NBA Draft Discussion 

Post#137 » by ejs78 » Sat Jul 18, 2020 6:06 pm

After watching everything I could Im in for Bey and Bane.

Another Nova kid and Senior who I think could both walk in and be nice role players immediately.

Sent from my SM-G960U using RealGM mobile app
Mike lorenzo
Analyst
Posts: 3,147
And1: 726
Joined: May 09, 2020
 

Re: 2020 NBA Draft Discussion 

Post#138 » by Mike lorenzo » Sat Jul 18, 2020 7:05 pm

Does anyone think it's a good idea to use # 18 to download Powell, to expiration? .. Zeller, Young, Snell, James Johnson .....
1+1=11
Teffer10
Head Coach
Posts: 7,257
And1: 1,050
Joined: Oct 06, 2006
     

Re: 2020 NBA Draft Discussion 

Post#139 » by Teffer10 » Sun Jul 19, 2020 12:51 am

Mike lorenzo wrote:Does anyone think it's a good idea to use # 18 to download Powell, to expiration? .. Zeller, Young, Snell, James Johnson .....

I personally think the Mavs should pick in this draft for a few reasons.

First, the Mavs won't have many decent draft picks after this (similar to most of the years with Dirk).

Second, the Mavs are young so they might be able to find starter quality between the two picks (maybe even by packaging them to move up). If we can get a decent starter quality player it will help our cap situation when shopping for FAs.

Third, there seems to be pretty good potential value in the mid-range of this draft.

I still think Poku should be our guy if he is still on the board. Yes he is similar to KP but this kid has star potential because he has extremely unique ball handling skills, court vision and instincts for a guy his size.
I keep saying he looks like a bigger version of Ginobli offensively, and any team outside the lottery will regret not taking him if he is available.
Many of the other guys like Bey, Bane and Williams would be nice picks and instant fits but all of them seem to have high floors and low ceilings imo. Seems like those types could be found in FA and/or acquired via trades with relative ease.
Heezzi
Pro Prospect
Posts: 903
And1: 272
Joined: Nov 19, 2008

Re: 2020 NBA Draft Discussion 

Post#140 » by Heezzi » Sun Jul 19, 2020 12:57 am

B8RcDeMktfxC wrote:
JJP wrote:That's the thing. If the Mavericks draft Maledon over P. Williams, I would trust their judgement. This is not a case where I feel any need to defend my choice.

The last few drafts, I have felt the Mavericks have made the best call they can make. I thought Dennis Smith was the best player available in 2017.


In retrospect DSJ looks like a bad choice and the Mavs managed to shovel the hot potato on to the Knicks. Obviously he's been in a terrible situation coaching & playing time-wise there, but this year he mostly looked like not even ready for the G-league.

Looking down the list below him is disheartening. Obviously Spider and Bam at 13,14, resp, are way aways from anything DSJ could ever hope to be and John Collins, Jarrett Allen, OG Anunoby, Pasečņiks, Kuzma and White seem very hard to catch up to even if everything somehow miraculously changed. And frankly one could throw in Luke Kennard and maybe, for upside, Harry Giles and Malik Monk as well. That's a lot of missing.

Here's DeanonDraft (back when he was obsessive) hedging his bets as hard as he could and still coming up with nothing really to make you expect DSJ to thrive in the NBA.

deanondraft.com/2017/06/22/is-dennis-smith-jr-a-loser/


You have to keep in mind that DSJ was drafted to start next to Curry. Mavs drafted for fit while drafting the best available player. There was a log jam at SF/PF. They still had Barnes, Dirk, DFS, and Maxi.

Return to Dallas Mavericks