Indiana Pacers Draft Pick Watch Thread

[Badgerlander]

https://fansided.com/2020/07/20/nba-draft-shooting-synopsis-volume-versatility/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

What does this tell us about the 2020 NBA Draft class?

The logical starting point is LaMelo Ball, the top prospect in the class for many, and one who is often maligned for his NBL shooting — 27.9 percent from 3 this season. There are reasons to doubt LaMelo and his shot, but this is a lazy one. Ball shot 8.5 triples per 40 minutes, most of which were difficult pull-up 3s:

Similar to initiators like Luka Doncic, Ball won’t need to hit an astronomically high clip — just a respectable one if he’s taking tough pull-ups on high volume — to accrue significant gravity. LaMelo’s shooting deserves an entire piece on its own. This one is not that.

Anthony Edwards’ shooting projection is interesting, as he passes the volume test with flying colors (237 attempts, 9.3 3PTA per 40), living off of highly difficult pull-up and step-back jumpers. Prospects with this extreme of volume rarely fail as shooters, but Edwards’ raw 3-point percentage is the lowest of any since 2008 with his volume at 29.1 percent. Without outstanding indicators in any other area, Edwards’ shooting development will be fascinating to track. Given his age and raw volume, I tend to lean positive on his projection, his volume likely scaled-down massively early in his NBA career.

Aleksej Pokusevski is fascinating for many reasons, his shooting projection chief among them. Despite underwhelming efficiency, his volume and versatility are uniquely high, especially for a prospect nearing 7-feet, launching 8.3 triples per 40 minutes. That’s more than most of the best shooting prospects in this class, only training snipers like Isaiah Joe and Aaron Nesmith. He’ll bomb from anywhere on the court with a lightning-quick trigger, firing difficult off-movement and pull-up shots:

For a player of his height and coordination, his gumption is rare. I buy Pokusevski’s shooting upside to a fairly high degree, cementing him as a top tier prospect in this class.

Tyrese Haliburton’s efficiency is off of the charts. He’s likely going to be a very good spot-up shooter, but Haliburton’s hesitancy to take difficult 3s is worrisome. He lacks a quick trigger off of screens (8-of-19 last season) and especially off of the dribble (16-57, 34.2 effective field goal percentage), where he often probes to his demise, passing up open jumpers:

His shooting profile is far more equipped for a complementary role, where Haliburton can hit spot-ups off of others’ gravity. If he’s asked to play as a primary, his lack of volume and versatility will become problematic.

Desmond Bane is the best shooter in the 2020 NBA Draft class. Bane’s toolbox is filled with every shot type imaginable: off-screen left, off-screen right, forward momentum pull-up, negative momentum, step-back, from way deep range and on high volume:

One last word on low-volume bigs, even those with strong indicators in other areas: overvaluing indicators such as touch, free-throw percentage or limited versatility can lead to overrating a big’s shooting potential. Again, I wouldn’t rule out any big becoming a passable spot-up shooter, but it’s vital to consider the level of impact a big man needs to reach as a shooter to have real value. Big men like Tyler Zeller, Dwight Powell and Larry Nance Jr. all had strong indicators but lacked the critical component of volume. I will exercise caution when projecting shooting for bigs like Vernon Carey, Xavier Tillman, Isaiah Stewart and even Tyler Bey, who flashes the occasional off-screen 3:

[Ron Swanson]

Don't think I'd be drafting Pokusevski solely off his volume 3PT shooting potential. I'd be drafting him based on his potential as a rim-protector and all-around two-way big that can also stretch the floor. Which pretty much goes back to my original point about guys getting over-drafted based on one specific trait or skill that we put too much emphasis on. Don't really care too much that Jalen Smith won't ever be Davis Bertans out there on the perimeter bombing away from the logo. I only care if he's capable enough to convert the occasional 3 when guys leave him open (see: RoLo).

[Ruzious]

Don't think I'd be drafting Pokusevski solely off his volume 3PT shooting potential. I'd be drafting him based on his potential as a rim-protector and all-around two-way big that can also stretch the floor. Which pretty much goes back to my original point about guys getting over-drafted based on one specific trait or skill that we put too much emphasis on. Don't really care too much that Jalen Smith won't ever be Davis Bertans out there on the perimeter bombing away from the logo. I only care if he's capable enough to convert the occasional 3 when guys leave him open (see: RoLo).

I'm intrigued by both players. All the video I've seen of Poku has him playing on the perimeter, but maybe that's because he was so skinny. He can be a weakside help shot-blocker, but I don't see him being a rim protector. What sticks out to me is his BBIQ. He makes passes that most bigs can't and has good defensive instincts. Smith doesn't have great instincts, but he's a very solid all-around player who can fit real well in a defined role.

Honestly, if Poku is there, I can't pass him up because of his potential - even though there will be players available who can probably help more as a rookie. I really wish we had another pick. We could even get someone good early in the 2nd round, imo. I'd buy a 2nd rounder.

[LuessiT]

Don't think I'd be drafting Pokusevski solely off his volume 3PT shooting potential. I'd be drafting him based on his potential as a rim-protector and all-around two-way big that can also stretch the floor. Which pretty much goes back to my original point about guys getting over-drafted based on one specific trait or skill that we put too much emphasis on. Don't really care too much that Jalen Smith won't ever be Davis Bertans out there on the perimeter bombing away from the logo. I only care if he's capable enough to convert the occasional 3 when guys leave him open (see: RoLo).

I'm intrigued by both players. All the video I've seen of Poku has him playing on the perimeter, but maybe that's because he was so skinny. He can be a weakside help shot-blocker, but I don't see him being a rim protector. What sticks out to me is his BBIQ. He makes passes that most bigs can't and has good defensive instincts. Smith doesn't have great instincts, but he's a very solid all-around player who can fit real well in a defined role.

Honestly, if Poku is there, I can't pass him up because of his potential - even though there will be players available who can probably help more as a rookie. I really wish we had another pick. We could even get someone good early in the 2nd round, imo. I'd buy a 2nd rounder.

I don't think the second round is interesting at all when we can get Wes Matthews level guys as ring chasers.

[Ruzious]

Don't think I'd be drafting Pokusevski solely off his volume 3PT shooting potential. I'd be drafting him based on his potential as a rim-protector and all-around two-way big that can also stretch the floor. Which pretty much goes back to my original point about guys getting over-drafted based on one specific trait or skill that we put too much emphasis on. Don't really care too much that Jalen Smith won't ever be Davis Bertans out there on the perimeter bombing away from the logo. I only care if he's capable enough to convert the occasional 3 when guys leave him open (see: RoLo).

I'm intrigued by both players. All the video I've seen of Poku has him playing on the perimeter, but maybe that's because he was so skinny. He can be a weakside help shot-blocker, but I don't see him being a rim protector. What sticks out to me is his BBIQ. He makes passes that most bigs can't and has good defensive instincts. Smith doesn't have great instincts, but he's a very solid all-around player who can fit real well in a defined role.

Honestly, if Poku is there, I can't pass him up because of his potential - even though there will be players available who can probably help more as a rookie. I really wish we had another pick. We could even get someone good early in the 2nd round, imo. I'd buy a 2nd rounder.

I don't think the second round is interesting at all when we can get Wes Matthews level guys as ring chasers.

It depends on the draft. I think this one is deeper than most. Even a guy like Bane could be there - because scouts downgrade him because of his short arms and lack of quickness. Guys like Riller, Terry, Nwora, one of the Beys, and any of several decent bigs could be there.

[Ron Swanson]

Even if I'm not super high on the international class this year, this would be the perfect time to take a home-run swing with information being so limited. Whatever semblance of a combine that happens is gonna huge for some of these 19-20 year old prospects. Poku makes Brandon Ingram look like a body-builder, but if he shows up in 2 months looking like he's put on some lean weight while still looking mobile? He probably goes in the lottery.

[LuessiT]

I'm intrigued by both players. All the video I've seen of Poku has him playing on the perimeter, but maybe that's because he was so skinny. He can be a weakside help shot-blocker, but I don't see him being a rim protector. What sticks out to me is his BBIQ. He makes passes that most bigs can't and has good defensive instincts. Smith doesn't have great instincts, but he's a very solid all-around player who can fit real well in a defined role.

Honestly, if Poku is there, I can't pass him up because of his potential - even though there will be players available who can probably help more as a rookie. I really wish we had another pick. We could even get someone good early in the 2nd round, imo. I'd buy a 2nd rounder.

I don't think the second round is interesting at all when we can get Wes Matthews level guys as ring chasers.

It depends on the draft. I think this one is deeper than most. Even a guy like Bane could be there - because scouts downgrade him because of his short arms and lack of quickness. Guys like Riller, Terry, Nwora, one of the Beys, and any of several decent bigs could be there.

First thing I doubt any 2nd rounder in the early to mid 40's will be available to buy. Secondly none of the guys mentioned will be better than Wes was last year. Maybe Bane could be as good or better in year 2/3. Maybe.
There is a real opportunity cost to making draft picks. Assuming Wes and Robin opt we get to fill up to 5 roster spots. We've got access to the Pacers pick, the MLE and the BAE. I just don't see how we realistically want 2nds unless it's for 2ways.

[Ruzious]

I don't think the second round is interesting at all when we can get Wes Matthews level guys as ring chasers.

It depends on the draft. I think this one is deeper than most. Even a guy like Bane could be there - because scouts downgrade him because of his short arms and lack of quickness. Guys like Riller, Terry, Nwora, one of the Beys, and any of several decent bigs could be there.

First thing I doubt any 2nd rounder in the early to mid 40's will be available to buy. Secondly none of the guys mentioned will be better than Wes was last year. Maybe Bane could be as good or better in year 2/3. Maybe.
There is a real opportunity cost to making draft picks. Assuming Wes and Robin opt we get to fill up to 5 roster spots. We've got access to the Pacers pick, the MLE and the BAE. I just don't see how we realistically want 2nds unless it's for 2ways.

What makes you doubt it?

Fwiw, Matthews stats on the whole are pretty bad.

[LuessiT]

It depends on the draft. I think this one is deeper than most. Even a guy like Bane could be there - because scouts downgrade him because of his short arms and lack of quickness. Guys like Riller, Terry, Nwora, one of the Beys, and any of several decent bigs could be there.

First thing I doubt any 2nd rounder in the early to mid 40's will be available to buy. Secondly none of the guys mentioned will be better than Wes was last year. Maybe Bane could be as good or better in year 2/3. Maybe.
There is a real opportunity cost to making draft picks. Assuming Wes and Robin opt we get to fill up to 5 roster spots. We've got access to the Pacers pick, the MLE and the BAE. I just don't see how we realistically want 2nds unless it's for 2ways.

What makes you doubt it?

Look at the draft picks sold last year and before that for cash. That said the next draft will be under special circumstances so who knows.

[Ruzious]

First thing I doubt any 2nd rounder in the early to mid 40's will be available to buy. Secondly none of the guys mentioned will be better than Wes was last year. Maybe Bane could be as good or better in year 2/3. Maybe.
There is a real opportunity cost to making draft picks. Assuming Wes and Robin opt we get to fill up to 5 roster spots. We've got access to the Pacers pick, the MLE and the BAE. I just don't see how we realistically want 2nds unless it's for 2ways.

What makes you doubt it?

Look at the draft picks sold last year and before that for cash. That said the next draft will be under special circumstances so who knows.

Off the top of my head, Admiral Schofield was the 42nd pick last year and sold to the Wizards. I'm guessing there were others. I know the Warriors have bought 2nds at least that high on multiple occasions. Old pal Ernie Grunfeld sold the Wiz 2nd rounders on multiple occasions.

[M-C-G]

What makes you doubt it?

Look at the draft picks sold last year and before that for cash. That said the next draft will be under special circumstances so who knows.

Off the top of my head, Admiral Schofield was the 42nd pick last year and sold to the Wizards. I'm guessing there were others. I know the Warriors have bought 2nds at least that high on multiple occasions. Old pal Ernie Grunfeld sold the Wiz 2nd rounders on multiple occasions.

If I could buy a pick to get a guy like Tyler Bey and just keep him in the gym shooting threes for his entire first year, that'd be a great outcome. 76ers have a bunch of seconds and will almost surely be selling one or two

[LuessiT]

Look at the draft picks sold last year and before that for cash. That said the next draft will be under special circumstances so who knows.

Off the top of my head, Admiral Schofield was the 42nd pick last year and sold to the Wizards. I'm guessing there were others. I know the Warriors have bought 2nds at least that high on multiple occasions. Old pal Ernie Grunfeld sold the Wiz 2nd rounders on multiple occasions.

If I could buy a pick to get a guy like Tyler Bey and just keep him in the gym shooting threes for his entire first year, that'd be a great outcome. 76ers have a bunch of seconds and will almost surely be selling one or two

Would that be a great outcome for the Bucks though? I get why it would be a great outcome for let's say the Blazers but as the Bucks when you can get guys like Pat Connaughton (former SRP that continually developed) on a 2 year minimum I don't think it's a great outcome. Bey would have to be significantly better in year 2 and 3 than Pat Connaughton in year 5 to make it worth it. I just don't think that's realistic.
Not to mention we can get actual ring chasers like Wes Matthews (who Bey has no real chance to be better at if we're being real).
Out of 30 guys in the second round you get like 5 impact players in the NBA and some of them only after multiple years. I'm a draft nerd just like you guys but we got to have realistic expectations.

[M-C-G]

Off the top of my head, Admiral Schofield was the 42nd pick last year and sold to the Wizards. I'm guessing there were others. I know the Warriors have bought 2nds at least that high on multiple occasions. Old pal Ernie Grunfeld sold the Wiz 2nd rounders on multiple occasions.

If I could buy a pick to get a guy like Tyler Bey and just keep him in the gym shooting threes for his entire first year, that'd be a great outcome. 76ers have a bunch of seconds and will almost surely be selling one or two

Would that be a great outcome for the Bucks though? I get why it would be a great outcome for let's say the Blazers but as the Bucks when you can get guys like Pat Connaughton (former SRP that continually developed) on a 2 year minimum I don't think it's a great outcome. Bey would have to be significantly better in year 2 and 3 than Pat Connaughton in year 5 to make it worth it. I just don't think that's realistic.
Not to mention we can get actual ring chasers like Wes Matthews (who Bey has no real chance to be better at if we're being real).
Out of 30 guys in the second round you get like 5 impact players in the NBA and some of them only after multiple years. I'm a draft nerd just like you guys but we got to have realistic expectations.

If a year of investment gets me an Andre Roberson that can shoot a three, or not be a complete offensive liability, that is a fantastic result.

The situation you are laying out isn't either/or, it can be a both.

[Badgerlander]

Read on Twitter

?s=21

[LuessiT]

If I could buy a pick to get a guy like Tyler Bey and just keep him in the gym shooting threes for his entire first year, that'd be a great outcome. 76ers have a bunch of seconds and will almost surely be selling one or two

Would that be a great outcome for the Bucks though? I get why it would be a great outcome for let's say the Blazers but as the Bucks when you can get guys like Pat Connaughton (former SRP that continually developed) on a 2 year minimum I don't think it's a great outcome. Bey would have to be significantly better in year 2 and 3 than Pat Connaughton in year 5 to make it worth it. I just don't think that's realistic.
Not to mention we can get actual ring chasers like Wes Matthews (who Bey has no real chance to be better at if we're being real).
Out of 30 guys in the second round you get like 5 impact players in the NBA and some of them only after multiple years. I'm a draft nerd just like you guys but we got to have realistic expectations.

If a year of investment gets me an Andre Roberson that can shoot a three, or not be a complete offensive liability, that is a fantastic result.

The situation you are laying out isn't either/or, it can be a both.

What are you talking about? You can't get an Andre Roberson that can shoot in the mid second. There are only a handful of players that somewhat fit the bill (like Royce O'Neale - undrafted btw).
Players with that projection go in the first round, rather early. If you think Tyler Bey is that kind of guy I think you couldn't be more wrong. I'm not even sure Sadiq Bey is an above average defender in the NBA.

[Beorn]

Poku is Thon, if Thon had perimeter skills and mobility, point-forward passing ability and good defending instincts. The elephant in the room (functional strength) is still there, but it's a risk I would take.

[emunney]

Yam is so dope. Hope we get him.

Read on Twitter

[Badgerlander]

Yam is so dope. Hope we get him.

Read on Twitter

?s=21

[M-C-G]

Would that be a great outcome for the Bucks though? I get why it would be a great outcome for let's say the Blazers but as the Bucks when you can get guys like Pat Connaughton (former SRP that continually developed) on a 2 year minimum I don't think it's a great outcome. Bey would have to be significantly better in year 2 and 3 than Pat Connaughton in year 5 to make it worth it. I just don't think that's realistic.
Not to mention we can get actual ring chasers like Wes Matthews (who Bey has no real chance to be better at if we're being real).
Out of 30 guys in the second round you get like 5 impact players in the NBA and some of them only after multiple years. I'm a draft nerd just like you guys but we got to have realistic expectations.

If a year of investment gets me an Andre Roberson that can shoot a three, or not be a complete offensive liability, that is a fantastic result.

The situation you are laying out isn't either/or, it can be a both.

What are you talking about? You can't get an Andre Roberson that can shoot in the mid second. There are only a handful of players that somewhat fit the bill (like Royce O'Neale - undrafted btw).
Players with that projection go in the first round, rather early. If you think Tyler Bey is that kind of guy I think you couldn't be more wrong. I'm not even sure Sadiq Bey is an above average defender in the NBA.

Jesus man, you must do contract law for a living, reminds me of an exgirlfriend yelling at me. The HOPE is that an incredibly versatile defender such as Bey who is widely mocked to be available in the second round can spend a year honing his shot, at which point he is much more valuable as a player.

[machu46]

https://fansided.com/2020/07/20/nba-draft-shooting-synopsis-volume-versatility/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

What does this tell us about the 2020 NBA Draft class?

The logical starting point is LaMelo Ball, the top prospect in the class for many, and one who is often maligned for his NBL shooting — 27.9 percent from 3 this season. There are reasons to doubt LaMelo and his shot, but this is a lazy one. Ball shot 8.5 triples per 40 minutes, most of which were difficult pull-up 3s:

Similar to initiators like Luka Doncic, Ball won’t need to hit an astronomically high clip — just a respectable one if he’s taking tough pull-ups on high volume — to accrue significant gravity. LaMelo’s shooting deserves an entire piece on its own. This one is not that.

Anthony Edwards’ shooting projection is interesting, as he passes the volume test with flying colors (237 attempts, 9.3 3PTA per 40), living off of highly difficult pull-up and step-back jumpers. Prospects with this extreme of volume rarely fail as shooters, but Edwards’ raw 3-point percentage is the lowest of any since 2008 with his volume at 29.1 percent. Without outstanding indicators in any other area, Edwards’ shooting development will be fascinating to track. Given his age and raw volume, I tend to lean positive on his projection, his volume likely scaled-down massively early in his NBA career.

Aleksej Pokusevski is fascinating for many reasons, his shooting projection chief among them. Despite underwhelming efficiency, his volume and versatility are uniquely high, especially for a prospect nearing 7-feet, launching 8.3 triples per 40 minutes. That’s more than most of the best shooting prospects in this class, only training snipers like Isaiah Joe and Aaron Nesmith. He’ll bomb from anywhere on the court with a lightning-quick trigger, firing difficult off-movement and pull-up shots:

For a player of his height and coordination, his gumption is rare. I buy Pokusevski’s shooting upside to a fairly high degree, cementing him as a top tier prospect in this class.

Tyrese Haliburton’s efficiency is off of the charts. He’s likely going to be a very good spot-up shooter, but Haliburton’s hesitancy to take difficult 3s is worrisome. He lacks a quick trigger off of screens (8-of-19 last season) and especially off of the dribble (16-57, 34.2 effective field goal percentage), where he often probes to his demise, passing up open jumpers:

His shooting profile is far more equipped for a complementary role, where Haliburton can hit spot-ups off of others’ gravity. If he’s asked to play as a primary, his lack of volume and versatility will become problematic.

Desmond Bane is the best shooter in the 2020 NBA Draft class. Bane’s toolbox is filled with every shot type imaginable: off-screen left, off-screen right, forward momentum pull-up, negative momentum, step-back, from way deep range and on high volume:

One last word on low-volume bigs, even those with strong indicators in other areas: overvaluing indicators such as touch, free-throw percentage or limited versatility can lead to overrating a big’s shooting potential. Again, I wouldn’t rule out any big becoming a passable spot-up shooter, but it’s vital to consider the level of impact a big man needs to reach as a shooter to have real value. Big men like Tyler Zeller, Dwight Powell and Larry Nance Jr. all had strong indicators but lacked the critical component of volume. I will exercise caution when projecting shooting for bigs like Vernon Carey, Xavier Tillman, Isaiah Stewart and even Tyler Bey, who flashes the occasional off-screen 3:

This was a really interesting read. Reading through the whole thing, there was sort of a nagging in the back of my head, but I think the bolded portion about LaMelo sort of brings it into a clearer focus for me. Where is the trade-off where gravity becomes more valuable than actual efficiency and vice versa? I understand the value that Luka is bringing to the offense even if his 3 point shot isn't dropping at an average clip; he's arguably close enough that he still strikes fear into the defense's heart and he's super efficient everywhere else on the floor so it makes sense that defenses are scared of him. But even if LaMelo draws defensive attention out to the 3 point line, is that actually a good thing if he's taking a ton of shots and pretty much not making any? And will defenses continue to pay attention to him out there if his percentages don't improve by a significant amount? I don't know the answer.

It's touched on in the LaMelo-centric piece that that article links to as well (http://jakeinthepaint.com/lamelo-ball-is-just-different/) where the writer says

His percentages from deep don’t scream “knockdown shooter” on the scouting report, but defenses respond to volume — unless you’re outlier bad, *cough* Westbrook — and LaMelo is more than comfortable shooting pull-up threes.

I'd love to know if there's really an answer to where that number is that defenses will stop caring when you shoot, or maybe more importantly, defenses will still care but you're hurting your team when they shoot them anyways.

I think it's true that shooting volume on respectable efficiency is more important than great efficiency on lower volume, which has been one of my main points in arguing that I think more minutes for Donte & Matthews may have helped our spacing despite sacrificing Brogdon's shooting efficiency, but I think the relative gray area where you start to question if more volume is actually good is really interesting and may be more relevant with regard to guys like LaMelo and Edwards whose shooting numbers seem to be "outlier bad like Westbrook".