Official Speculation Thread '19-'20 V: Purgatory

[NotACat]

Don't need to think if we can look at the numbers.
DJ: https://stats.nba.com/player/201571/passes-dash/?sort=FG3_PCT&dir=1
Fournier: https://stats.nba.com/player/203095/passes-dash/?sort=FG3_PCT&dir=1


What stands out to me:
-Not much to read from DJs stats since most of his passes are to players in the second unit, sample size isn't enough to pull data for the starters IMO
-For Fournier, all of the starters shot worse from 3 when receiving a pass from him:
==Vucevic: 28.8% (32.9% season avg)
==AG: 17.9% (30.1% season avg)
==Fultz: 22.2% (25.4% season avg)
-According to cleaning the glass, Fournier accounts for 16.1% of all of our teams assists when he's on the floor (81st percentile) - that tells me he has way too much on-ball responsibility


I decided to check the passing numbers for AG and Vuc as well
-Evan shoots 51% from 3 when receiving a pass from AG, Vuc is only shooting 20% (less than 1 3pt attempt a game when getting a pass from AG)
-When Vuc is passing, Evan is shooting 34.2%, AG is shooting 39%(!!), Fultz is 28% (above his season average)


All in all, it seems like our Fultz should be our primary facilitator, Vuc 2nd, and AG 3rd. AG is either very good or very fortunate when he's catching passing from Fultz or Vuc. Fournier likely will continue to get the ball more because the PnR with him and Vuc has been effective in the regular season.

Awesome, thank you for doing the leg work ! Seems that the statistics match the”eye test” when it comes to Evan not being the most efficient playmaker on our team.

Send this to coach Cliff !

Its nice to have a different perspective but you guys took those stats way out of context. Did you consider that when Fultz is passing to Gordon, Fournier is the one spacing the floor, and when Fournier is passing to Gordon Fultz is the floor spacer ? its only one of many variables.
Gordon is in 18 percentile as a pnr ball handler and in 49 percentile in transition. In almost every metric he is awful to below average ball handler.

You definitely have a point, but if Fournier is at his best when he's standing aside and spacing the floor, that also means that he shouldn't be handling the ball much. It also means a player like TRoss could easily fill his spot

[zaymon]

Awesome, thank you for doing the leg work ! Seems that the statistics match the”eye test” when it comes to Evan not being the most efficient playmaker on our team.

Send this to coach Cliff !

Its nice to have a different perspective but you guys took those stats way out of context. Did you consider that when Fultz is passing to Gordon, Fournier is the one spacing the floor, and when Fournier is passing to Gordon Fultz is the floor spacer ? its only one of many variables.
Gordon is in 18 percentile as a pnr ball handler and in 49 percentile in transition. In almost every metric he is awful to below average ball handler.

You definitely have a point, but if Fournier is at his best when he's standing aside and spacing the floor, that also means that he shouldn't be handling the ball much. It also means a player like TRoss could easily fill his spot

Fournier is a versatile offensive player, he is dangerous both on and off the ball. You cant let him shoot, but if you close out he will just go past you. As numbers show he is also great when you give him a screen. He is almost as efficient around the rim as Gordon who can only dunk. You definetly want the ball in Evans hands, just not as a first option becouae he doesnt have point guards vision. I dont blame him he is passing mostly to Vucevic, lets be honest we dont have any other efficient option among starters

[Bakomagic]

Its nice to have a different perspective but you guys took those stats way out of context. Did you consider that when Fultz is passing to Gordon, Fournier is the one spacing the floor, and when Fournier is passing to Gordon Fultz is the floor spacer ? its only one of many variables.
Gordon is in 18 percentile as a pnr ball handler and in 49 percentile in transition. In almost every metric he is awful to below average ball handler.

You definitely have a point, but if Fournier is at his best when he's standing aside and spacing the floor, that also means that he shouldn't be handling the ball much. It also means a player like TRoss could easily fill his spot

Fournier is a versatile offensive player, he is dangerous both on and off the ball. You cant let him shoot, but if you close out he will just go past you. As numbers show he is also great when you give him a screen. He is almost as efficient around the rim as Gordon who can only dunk. You definetly want the ball in Evans hands, just not as a first option becouae he doesnt have point guards vision. I dont blame him he is passing mostly to Vucevic, lets be honest we dont have any other efficient option among starters

I think you underestimate AG when you say he can only dunk. AG is a good passer too (arguably better than Fournier).

The other points you make about Fournier are fair. Seems like we agree that Fournier should not be the primary playmaker on this team. I just think Fournier should be the guy we design plays for to get him open looks ala TRoss or a Klay Thompson instead of the guy we count on to create shots for himself and others.

[SOUL]

You definitely have a point, but if Fournier is at his best when he's standing aside and spacing the floor, that also means that he shouldn't be handling the ball much. It also means a player like TRoss could easily fill his spot

Fournier is a versatile offensive player, he is dangerous both on and off the ball. You cant let him shoot, but if you close out he will just go past you. As numbers show he is also great when you give him a screen. He is almost as efficient around the rim as Gordon who can only dunk. You definetly want the ball in Evans hands, just not as a first option becouae he doesnt have point guards vision. I dont blame him he is passing mostly to Vucevic, lets be honest we dont have any other efficient option among starters

I think you underestimate AG when you say he can only dunk. AG is a good passer too (arguably better than Fournier).

The other points you make about Fournier are fair. Seems like we agree that Fournier should not be the primary playmaker on this team. I just think Fournier should be the guy we design plays for to get him open looks ala TRoss or a Klay Thompson instead of the guy we count on to create shots for himself and others.

Definitely not arguable. Easily.

[Xatticus]

You definitely have a point, but if Fournier is at his best when he's standing aside and spacing the floor, that also means that he shouldn't be handling the ball much. It also means a player like TRoss could easily fill his spot

Fournier is a versatile offensive player, he is dangerous both on and off the ball. You cant let him shoot, but if you close out he will just go past you. As numbers show he is also great when you give him a screen. He is almost as efficient around the rim as Gordon who can only dunk. You definetly want the ball in Evans hands, just not as a first option becouae he doesnt have point guards vision. I dont blame him he is passing mostly to Vucevic, lets be honest we dont have any other efficient option among starters

I think you underestimate AG when you say he can only dunk. AG is a good passer too (arguably better than Fournier).

The other points you make about Fournier are fair. Seems like we agree that Fournier should not be the primary playmaker on this team. I just think Fournier should be the guy we design plays for to get him open looks ala TRoss or a Klay Thompson instead of the guy we count on to create shots for himself and others.

We already do this, but the ball sticks in his hands. Fournier is just a really low-IQ offensive player that wants to use Vucevic to get his own shots up as often as possible. I really don't blame Vucevic for this.

Watch on YouTube

We run this a lot and it is designed to get shots for Fournier, Ross, and Vucevic.

When I am looking at a player's vision, I am trying to see how often they find passes that I didn't see before they made the pass. Even guys without good vision can be good ball movers if they make the obvious passes regularly. The really good ones will pass guys open by leading them into space even though they might not be open when the pass is actually made.

Fournier misses obvious passes frequently. He is often late even when he does find them. Gaps close quickly and if you don't deliver passes on time, the advantage is gone by the time the ball gets to the recipient. There is a massive difference between catching the ball with a defender in front of you and catching the ball with a defender running at you or chasing you. Fournier has his moments when he is swinging the ball around the perimeter, but if he is on the move, he won't see anything that isn't directly in front of him.

It annoys me when people conflate the ability to shoot or finish with actually being a good offensive player. Everyone is falling in love with Grant Riller because he looks like a smaller version of James Harden. I've seen a number of people mention him as the best offensive player in this draft. He has a great first step that he uses that to create shots for himself all over the floor and he is a capable finisher from everywhere. He doesn't do much to set up offense for his teammates though. College of Charleston's offense wasn't really all that good and they weren't facing the toughest competition.

Good shooting and good finishing is always nice to have, but basketball offense is far more complex than a bunch of guys taking turns trying to figure out how to score. You can be a good finisher/shooter and yet a terrible offensive player. You can also be a terrible finisher/shooter and yet a very good offensive player.

I'm not saying that Fournier is a terrible offensive player, but it's really difficult to make the case that he is actually a good offensive player if you dig into the lineup stats at all. He easily has the worst offensive differentials among the four regular starters (Fultz, Fournier, Gordon, and Vucevic). Basically, everyone's offensive rating goes up when they share the floor with Vucevic, Gordon, or Fultz, but their offensive rating goes down when they share the floor with Fournier. This is why the on/off portion of his RAPTOR is so bad. This just isn't at all what you would expect if the player was genuinely a valuable offensive player, especially on a bad offensive team.

This has been the case in previous seasons as well. The offense suffers when Vucevic goes out. It doesn't suffer when Fournier goes out. Is our offense better without Fournier out there? I don't know. We don't have enough talent that I'm comfortable enough to answer in the affirmative, but I wouldn't really expect it to get any worse in his absence. He's definitely a bad defensive player though. The data is really clear on that point.

[Knightro]

Read on Twitter

Shameful.

[EAS Law]

Fournier is a versatile offensive player, he is dangerous both on and off the ball. You cant let him shoot, but if you close out he will just go past you. As numbers show he is also great when you give him a screen. He is almost as efficient around the rim as Gordon who can only dunk. You definetly want the ball in Evans hands, just not as a first option becouae he doesnt have point guards vision. I dont blame him he is passing mostly to Vucevic, lets be honest we dont have any other efficient option among starters

I think you underestimate AG when you say he can only dunk. AG is a good passer too (arguably better than Fournier).

The other points you make about Fournier are fair. Seems like we agree that Fournier should not be the primary playmaker on this team. I just think Fournier should be the guy we design plays for to get him open looks ala TRoss or a Klay Thompson instead of the guy we count on to create shots for himself and others.

We already do this, but the ball sticks in his hands. Fournier is just a really low-IQ offensive player that wants to use Vucevic to get his own shots up as often as possible. I really don't blame Vucevic for this.

Watch on YouTube

We run this a lot and it is designed to get shots for Fournier, Ross, and Vucevic.

When I am looking at a player's vision, I am trying to see how often they find passes that I didn't see before they made the pass. Even guys without good vision can be good ball movers if they make the obvious passes regularly. The really good ones will pass guys open by leading them into space even though they might not be open when the pass is actually made.

Fournier misses obvious passes frequently. He is often late even when he does find them. Gaps close quickly and if you don't deliver passes on time, the advantage is gone by the time the ball gets to the recipient. There is a massive difference between catching the ball with a defender in front of you and catching the ball with a defender running at you or chasing you. Fournier has his moments when he is swinging the ball around the perimeter, but if he is on the move, he won't see anything that isn't directly in front of him.

It annoys me when people conflate the ability to shoot or finish with actually being a good offensive player. Everyone is falling in love with Grant Riller because he looks like a smaller version of James Harden. I've seen a number of people mention him as the best offensive player in this draft. He has a great first step that he uses that to create shots for himself all over the floor and he is a capable finisher from everywhere. He doesn't do much to set up offense for his teammates though. College of Charleston's offense wasn't really all that good and they weren't facing the toughest competition.

Good shooting and good finishing is always nice to have, but basketball offense is far more complex than a bunch of guys taking turns trying to figure out how to score. You can be a good finisher/shooter and yet a terrible offensive player. You can also be a terrible finisher/shooter and yet a very good offensive player.

I'm not saying that Fournier is a terrible offensive player, but it's really difficult to make the case that he is actually a good offensive player if you dig into the lineup stats at all. He easily has the worst offensive differentials among the four regular starters (Fultz, Fournier, Gordon, and Vucevic). Basically, everyone's offensive rating goes up when they share the floor with Vucevic, Gordon, or Fultz, but their offensive rating goes down when they share the floor with Fournier. This is why the on/off portion of his RAPTOR is so bad. This just isn't at all what you would expect if the player was genuinely a valuable offensive player, especially on a bad offensive team.

This has been the case in previous seasons as well. The offense suffers when Vucevic goes out. It doesn't suffer when Fournier goes out. Is our offense better without Fournier out there? I don't know. We don't have enough talent that I'm comfortable enough to answer in the affirmative, but I wouldn't really expect it to get any worse in his absence. He's definitely a bad defensive player though. The data is really clear on that point.

Blistering analysis. Agreed

[J the Drafter]

It seems to me Fournier’s biggest weakness is that he’s a pick and roll scorer instead of a pick and roll player. He’s good at using the screen to get himself a quality shot, and he’s comfortable making the pass to the open big, but he doesn’t have the vision to make passes to the perimeter. I think it’s hasty to conclude he’s a bad offensive player just because he’s a poor passer while being a strong shooter and finisher. And if he was playing injured, like he was in the Heat game, than that’s obviously going to degrade his play, and give his detractors ammunition.

[pepe1991]

Evan Fournier has the best offensive RAPTOR on a team, 3rd highest box score RAPTOR.
On off court thing is as flawed as it gets, Bojan Bogdanovic, while playing for Nets was top 50 ( since it's being measured ) -twice because team was crappy. In same time, on opposite side of a spectrum, career starter filler, who can't even cross ball over half court, Danny Green, 3 different times in his career was in top 50.
Or Eric Bledsoe, who over night went from bad RAPTOR on off court player, to one of the best, by simply getting traded ( not a hair )
There are also some awkward outliners when it comes to on/off court. For example 2014 Pau Gasol was still basically tear below allstar player, yet his RAPTOR value was crap-tastic. Matter of fact after 2014 was allstar twice and won Eurobasket by dominating nba players- filled Eurobasket like only few before him did.
Drummond had pretty bad Raptor in 2017 ( -2,4) and still was really good.

Any off/ on court data tells more about a team than player. It's measured that way.

If we are using RAPTOR, let's at least use all 3 columns, not pick one that makes your ponit stronger, and just acting like in other two same player isn't one of the best or the best ...
It's not secret that Evan should not be secundary playmaker, but when front office can't build funcional roster he becomes one by default.

Oh btw since Vuc hate is still a thing, Vuc 2018-19 season had him having +4,8 RAPTOR, in perspective, Durant 2019 ( 5,1), 2018 (5,2), Lebron 2015 ( 5,0)...

[cedric76]

For all the evan haters :


Evan says that fultz and isaac are the future of the franchise

Read on Twitter

?s=19

Weham are building an awesome team

[basketballRob]

The kind of player Fultz will be without Evan. 29 mpg 19 ppg 7 apg 7 rpg, Magic 4-0. If they give Fultz the reins next season, he averages 20-25 ppg.

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[Xatticus]

Evan Fournier has the best offensive RAPTOR on a team, 3rd highest box score RAPTOR.
On off court thing is as flawed as it gets, Bojan Bogdanovic, while playing for Nets was top 50 ( since it's being measured ) -twice because team was crappy. In same time, on opposite side of a spectrum, career starter filler, who can't even cross ball over half court, Danny Green, 3 different times in his career was in top 50.
Or Eric Bledsoe, who over night went from bad RAPTOR on off court player, to one of the best, by simply getting traded ( not a hair )
There are also some awkward outliners when it comes to on/off court. For example 2014 Pau Gasol was still basically tear below allstar player, yet his RAPTOR value was crap-tastic. Matter of fact after 2014 was allstar twice and won Eurobasket by dominating nba players- filled Eurobasket like only few before him did.
Drummond had pretty bad Raptor in 2017 ( -2,4) and still was really good.

Any off/ on court data tells more about a team than player. It's measured that way.

If we are using RAPTOR, let's at least use all 3 columns, not pick one that makes your ponit stronger, and just acting like in other two same player isn't one of the best or the best ...
It's not secret that Evan should not be secundary playmaker, but when front office can't build funcional roster he becomes one by default.

Oh btw since Vuc hate is still a thing, Vuc 2018-19 season had him having +4,8 RAPTOR, in perspective, Durant 2019 ( 5,1), 2018 (5,2), Lebron 2015 ( 5,0)...

Yeah... if I were trying to make a pro-Fournier argument, I'd certainly want to discredit on/off stats as well.

I think you are grossly misinterpreting what the on/off portion of RAPTOR is telling you, so I will spell it out.

Ortg for two-man lineups:

Vucevic:
Fultz - 109.8
Gordon - 110.2
Fournier - 107.5

Gordon:
Fultz - 108.7
Fournier - 106.9
Vucevic - 110.2

Fultz:
Gordon - 108.7
Fournier - 108.9
Vucevic - 109.8

These are large samples.

Offensive rating is just how many points a team will score on average over 100 possessions. The goal of offense is to get that offensive rating as high as possible. What makes someone a good offensive player is not their stat line, but rather it is their impact on the team's offensive rating.

So when Vucevic and Gordon are on the floor together, the team has an offensive rating of 110.2 over 1307 minutes. If we expand that combination to include the minutes that Fournier was on the floor with them, the offensive rating drops to 108.3 over 1056 minutes. This means that the Gordon/Vucevic combination had a much higher offensive rating in the 251 minutes when Fournier wasn't on the floor with them. Taken in isolation, this doesn't mean a lot, but you can pick any of those two-man combinations and the offense gets worse when you add Fournier into the equation. When a player has a lower offensive rating than everyone they share significant floor time with, it is impossible to make a legitimate argument that said player is instrumental to the team's offensive success or that they are the best offensive player on their team.

I know it seems confounding to you that a player with high efficiency can be a poor offensive player, but you would be the first person to argue that Bamba's high block percentage isn't indicative of his defensive quality. This is precisely the same phenomenon.

I'll leave it here because we were really only discussing his offensive value, but keep in mind that the numbers get a lot uglier for Fournier if the conversation turns to net differential instead of just the offensive side of things.

[zaymon]

Evan Fournier has the best offensive RAPTOR on a team, 3rd highest box score RAPTOR.
On off court thing is as flawed as it gets, Bojan Bogdanovic, while playing for Nets was top 50 ( since it's being measured ) -twice because team was crappy. In same time, on opposite side of a spectrum, career starter filler, who can't even cross ball over half court, Danny Green, 3 different times in his career was in top 50.
Or Eric Bledsoe, who over night went from bad RAPTOR on off court player, to one of the best, by simply getting traded ( not a hair )
There are also some awkward outliners when it comes to on/off court. For example 2014 Pau Gasol was still basically tear below allstar player, yet his RAPTOR value was crap-tastic. Matter of fact after 2014 was allstar twice and won Eurobasket by dominating nba players- filled Eurobasket like only few before him did.
Drummond had pretty bad Raptor in 2017 ( -2,4) and still was really good.

Any off/ on court data tells more about a team than player. It's measured that way.

If we are using RAPTOR, let's at least use all 3 columns, not pick one that makes your ponit stronger, and just acting like in other two same player isn't one of the best or the best ...
It's not secret that Evan should not be secundary playmaker, but when front office can't build funcional roster he becomes one by default.

Oh btw since Vuc hate is still a thing, Vuc 2018-19 season had him having +4,8 RAPTOR, in perspective, Durant 2019 ( 5,1), 2018 (5,2), Lebron 2015 ( 5,0)...

Yeah... if I were trying to make a pro-Fournier argument, I'd certainly want to discredit on/off stats as well.

I think you are grossly misinterpreting what the on/off portion of RAPTOR is telling you, so I will spell it out.

Ortg for two-man lineups:

Vucevic:
Fultz - 109.8
Gordon - 110.2
Fournier - 107.5

Gordon:
Fultz - 108.7
Fournier - 106.9
Vucevic - 110.2

Fultz:
Gordon - 108.7
Fournier - 108.9
Vucevic - 109.8

These are large samples.

Offensive rating is just how many points a team will score on average over 100 possessions. The goal of offense is to get that offensive rating as high as possible. What makes someone a good offensive player is not their stat line, but rather it is their impact on the team's offensive rating.

So when Vucevic and Gordon are on the floor together, the team has an offensive rating of 110.2 over 1307 minutes. If we expand that combination to include the minutes that Fournier was on the floor with them, the offensive rating drops to 108.3 over 1056 minutes. This means that the Gordon/Vucevic combination had a much higher offensive rating in the 251 minutes when Fournier wasn't on the floor with them. Taken in isolation, this doesn't mean a lot, but you can pick any of those two-man combinations and the offense gets worse when you add Fournier into the equation. When a player has a lower offensive rating than everyone they share significant floor time with, it is impossible to make a legitimate argument that said player is instrumental to the team's offensive success or that they are the best offensive player on their team.

I know it seems confounding to you that a player with high efficiency can be a poor offensive player, but you would be the first person to argue that Bamba's high block percentage isn't indicative of his defensive quality. This is precisely the same phenomenon.

I'll leave it here because we were really only discussing his offensive value, but keep in mind that the numbers get a lot uglier for Fournier if the conversation turns to net differential instead of just the offensive side of things.

Did you thought what is the real reason for this ......?

Evan Fournier played 79.3 % vs starters and 20.7 vs bench
Markelle Fultz played 77.9 % vs starters and 22.1 vs bench
Nicola Vucevic played 74.9 % vs starters and 25.1 vs bench
Aaron Gordon played 73.7 % vs starters and 26.3 vs bench

Another thing which is affecting their offense is defensive burden.

Evan Fournier defends 53.9 % against opposing creators, 16.6% against movement shooters and 15,8% against spot up wings

Aaron Gordon defends 37,5% against opposing creators, 5,6% against movement wings and 32,1 against spot up wings

Also Fournier is defending primary creators twice as much as Gordon.

[cedric76]

Once fultz is ready, coach will ask Evan to play the way he wants.

Fultz + Evan couid make a great back court

[Bensational]

Don't need to think if we can look at the numbers.
DJ: https://stats.nba.com/player/201571/passes-dash/?sort=FG3_PCT&dir=1
Fournier: https://stats.nba.com/player/203095/passes-dash/?sort=FG3_PCT&dir=1


What stands out to me:
-Not much to read from DJs stats since most of his passes are to players in the second unit, sample size isn't enough to pull data for the starters IMO
-For Fournier, all of the starters shot worse from 3 when receiving a pass from him:
==Vucevic: 28.8% (32.9% season avg)
==AG: 17.9% (30.1% season avg)
==Fultz: 22.2% (25.4% season avg)
-According to cleaning the glass, Fournier accounts for 16.1% of all of our teams assists when he's on the floor (81st percentile) - that tells me he has way too much on-ball responsibility


I decided to check the passing numbers for AG and Vuc as well
-Evan shoots 51% from 3 when receiving a pass from AG, Vuc is only shooting 20% (less than 1 3pt attempt a game when getting a pass from AG)
-When Vuc is passing, Evan is shooting 34.2%, AG is shooting [b]39%(!!), Fultz is 28% (above his season average)[/b]


All in all, it seems like our Fultz should be our primary facilitator, Vuc 2nd, and AG 3rd. AG is either very good or very fortunate when he's catching passing from Fultz or Vuc. Fournier likely will continue to get the ball more because the PnR with him and Vuc has been effective in the regular season.

That what was something I was picking up on when the Magic had their small hot streak (which I think coincided with Fournier being in and out of games). The dual-passing combo of Vuc and Gordon was actually starting to look like something unique to us which we could exploit against a lot of teams. They were switching up who was posting up and passing from the post, with the other being on the perimeter. I hope we see them exploiting this more in this new post season.

When it comes to Fournier, I'm conflicted. I really like him as a player, and I think he has that kind of fire that I could see him hitting some Ray Allen/Hedo style big shots for playoff teams in the future. His shooting efficiency this season has been absurdly good. When Vuc went down, I liked the Fournier that stepped up and found a new chemistry with the rest of the team. But I agree with a lot of the criticisms, too - eyes for Vuc only/defends well in the system, but gets abused individually anywhere near the paint/just poor vision overall.

But really, out of Fournier and Ross we have two reasonably high end options as perimeter shooters. Both can catch and shoot well, and both can be elite at it. The next tier up are your 'star-level' names, and many will argue if they're even a tier above or not.

[Bensational]

For all the evan haters :


Evan says that fultz and isaac are the future of the franchise

Read on Twitter

?s=19

Weham are building an awesome team

This is great to hear.

[axl_c_cool]

Read on Twitter

Shameful.

This is a joke, how can you be a franchise worth hundreds of millions of dollars, pay your roster tens of millions, and lay off 31 “normal” workers In this climate. I hope they compensated them massively

[Creativetran]

This is a joke, how can you be a franchise worth hundreds of millions of dollars, pay your roster tens of millions, and lay off 31 “normal” workers In this climate. I hope they compensated them massively

They won't be, and welcome to the world of capitalism! The rich always get richer no matter what.

[axl_c_cool]

This is a joke, how can you be a franchise worth hundreds of millions of dollars, pay your roster tens of millions, and lay off 31 “normal” workers In this climate. I hope they compensated them massively

They won't be, and welcome to the world of capitalism! The rich always get richer no matter what.

Seriously makes me consider following them, billions taking from people with less and in need

[basketballRob]

Invest 92l, soon to be hurricane Josephine is supposed to be a major hurricane and threaten Florida.

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