Rui Hachimura

[WallToWall]

Against the Clippers, he was asked to carry the load, be the focal point on offense. I like the fact that he didnt shy away,and took the challenge. He put up 17 shots, but really, it was his movement on the court that was good. Just a scrimage, but good to see.

Sent from my SM-G965U using RealGM mobile app

[payitforward]

Rui wasn't "asked to carry the load," he was asked to play basketball. Just like every player on the floor for the Wizards & the Clippers.

So, the question is how well he played basketball, not whether he "took the challenge." What was he going to do -- sulk in his room?

As you point out, Rui put up 17 shots. He made 6 of them. He took 5 FTs. He made 3 of them.

Why don't we praise Rui for what he does when he does it well?

& there was some of that, btw. In 27 minutes, Rui grabbed 10 rebounds & had 2 steals. That's good. He rebounded well vs. the Nuggets as well. Hard to tell what any of this means for the future, but it's good to see.

If you shoot 35% from the floor & 55% from the line, yet you only lose by 5 points, that means you're doing something else right. In this case it was rebounding -- Bonga, Williams & Uthoff combined to get 26 boards in 55 minutes. Their rebounding along with Rui's was the only reason we were in the game at all.

[prime1time]

What are people's thoughts on the loss of a normal off-season? I guess if we don't make the playoffs, we'll get a couple months off but it is frustrating. The likelihood is that when the next season starts we will be getting a player who pretty much looks like the one we have now. Just feels like it throws off things when it comes to projecting stats and year over year development. Looking at some of the video from last night his handle has gotten a lot tighter.

Watch on YouTube

I love the move at 47 seconds. Quick right to left between the legs, then a slight step back with the ball in his left hand and rise up for the shot. It's small but it's good sound fundamental basketball. He's able to keep his eyes on the defender the entire time. Someone in here might prove me wrong, but I don't think Rui could do that when he was at Gonzaga. It's small but it's nice to see. Hope everyone is staying safe.

[DCZards]

I love the move at 47 seconds. Quick right to left between the legs, then a slight step back with the ball in his left hand and rise up for the shot. It's small but it's good sound fundamental basketball. He's able to keep his eyes on the defender the entire time. Someone in here might prove me wrong, but I don't think Rui could do that when he was at Gonzaga. It's small but it's nice to see. Hope everyone is staying safe.

Yes, that move by Rui at 47 seconds was very nice...and different from anything I've seen from him thus far. I like the fact that he's attacking the basket and seems to have improved his ability to take defenders off the dribble.

[payitforward]

Yup, there we have all 6 of the shots Rui made. Now let's see all 11 of the shots Rui missed. That way we'll have a better look into whether & how he's improved as a shooter.

In 53 minutes, Rui has grabbed 19 rebounds -- that's 14.34 per 40 minutes. On his rookie season before the break, Rui averaged 8.17 rebounds per 40 minutes.

That's "good" -- that's how it works; it's "good" when a guy does something "better." So, now we can say "Rui has rebounded much better in these first 2 bubble scrimmages than he did before."

But in those same 53 minutes, Rui has taken 31 shots, making 12 of them, including 1 3-pointer. -- that's an efg% of just under 39%. On his rookie season before the break, Rui posted an efg% of 50%

That's "bad" -- that's how it works; it's "bad" when a guy does something "worse.". So, now we can say "Rui has shot much worse in these first 2 bubble scrimmages than he did before."

Of course, Rui is shooting more so far. Does that mean anything? Well, let's see: on the season Rui took 20 shots every 53 minutes; he produced 20 points out of them. In these bubble scrimmages, he's taken 31 shots in 53 minutes; he's produced 25 points out of them.

In other words, his extra 11 shots have produced 5 extra points. Here again, that's not something "good," a sign of improved offense. It's something "bad."

Does any of this mean anything -- nah, not likely. One thing it definitely doesn't mean is -- "wow, Rui has really gotten better."

[DCZards]

Your stats don't lie, pif. They never do. But context matters.

It looks to me like Rui is being asked to do more offensively since the restart. So it would be no surprise that the rook might struggle at times in this new, expanded role.

Also, doesn't the absence of Beal and Bertans impact how Rui is guarded and how much defensive attention he draws? Might not those things have an impact on his shotmaking and offensive output when compared to earlier in the season?

It's reasonable to believe based on the "eye test" that Rui has gotten better...and yet it might not show up in some of the #s. Again, context cannot be ignored when judging a player based on stats.

[prime1time]

Yup, there we have all 6 of the shots Rui made. Now let's see all 11 of the shots Rui missed. That way we'll have a better look into whether & how he's improved as a shooter.

In 53 minutes, Rui has grabbed 19 rebounds -- that's 14.34 per 40 minutes. On his rookie season before the break, Rui averaged 8.17 rebounds per 40 minutes.

That's "good" -- that's how it works; it's "good" when a guy does something "better." So, now we can say "Rui has rebounded much better in these first 2 bubble scrimmages than he did before."

But in those same 53 minutes, Rui has taken 31 shots, making 12 of them, including 1 3-pointer. -- that's an efg% of just under 39%. On his rookie season before the break, Rui posted an efg% of 50%

That's "bad" -- that's how it works; it's "bad" when a guy does something "worse.". So, now we can say "Rui has shot much worse in these first 2 bubble scrimmages than he did before."

Of course, Rui is shooting more so far. Does that mean anything? Well, let's see: on the season Rui took 20 shots every 53 minutes; he produced 20 points out of them. In these bubble scrimmages, he's taken 31 shots in 53 minutes; he's produced 25 points out of them.

In other words, his extra 11 shots have produced 5 extra points. Here again, that's not something "good," a sign of improved offense. It's something "bad."

Does any of this mean anything -- nah, not likely. One thing it definitely doesn't mean is -- "wow, Rui has really gotten better."

The sample size is way too small to draw conclusions, but I do think improvements in skill should be pointed out.

[Shoe]

Rui is getting better and better and it's making some people very nervous. Don't worry I'm sure Brandon Clarke and his nagging HIP INJURY would've been just swell.

[payitforward]

Your stats don't lie, pif. They never do. But context matters. ...

But, these aren't "stats," Zards. Stats are about looking back at performance over time, a perspective large enough that "context" isn't a determining factor.

Great players post great stats: Michael, LeBron, Wilt, Larry Bird, Chris Paul, etc. &, yes, those stats reflect how good those players were. You can't find me a great player who didn't post great stats, & you can't find me a player who posted great stats ala those guys who wasn't a great player.

Rui's numbers in a couple of games aren't a basis for any judgment. Still, "6-17" is actual shots, made & missed. More makes is better, fewer worse. Otherwise, why are more rebounds better? If Rui had gone 12-17, we'd be crowing about him. But, that wouldn't mean anything positive about him overall; neither does 6-17 mean anything negative overall.

It looks to me like Rui is being asked to do more offensively since the restart. So it would be no surprise that the rook might struggle at times in this new, expanded role.

Also, doesn't the absence of Beal and Bertans impact how Rui is guarded and how much defensive attention he draws? Might not those things have an impact on his shotmaking and offensive output when compared to earlier in the season?...

Sure. But, it works both ways: that wasn't Montrezl Harrell out there checking Rui!

...It's reasonable to believe based on the "eye test" that Rui has gotten better...and yet it might not show up in some of the #s. Again, context cannot be ignored....

But, "context" is kind of my point! Imagining that Rui took off 4 months -- during which, obviously, he wasn't playing basketball -- & came back with moves he didn't have before?... able to do stuff he couldn't do before the lay off??? Come on, man!

You know, we're all glad to be watching basketball again. Hell, we would be glad to be doing just about anything that seemed a step back towards normal life. But, let's not confuse these scrimmages or what players do in these scrimmages with normal NBA games or what guys can/can't do in normal NBA games. The level of play is pretty low. This is just entertainment.

[payitforward]

Rui is getting better and better and it's making some people very nervous. Don't worry I'm sure Brandon Clarke and his nagging HIP INJURY would've been just swell.

Just for the record (for the 2 zillionth time): I want Rui to succeed. I want him to be great. & I want that for Brandon Clarke too. I imagine that these two guys, good friends & ex-teammates, want that for each other as well.

I'm a Father & a Grandfather too. I want success for every kid who's stepping into his grown-up life.

I'm going to assume, or at least hope, that you don't want someone to fail either.

Try a different tack.

[prime1time]

As much as I like Rui if he can’t play good defense he really limits us in terms of how to build the team. Because when looking at the forward position wwe are now limited to legit two way players. There’s a plethora of forwards that can score about do nothing else. In an ideal world Rui would become a plus defender that can guard both 3’s and 4’s. In addition, going forward we need to prioritize finding a guy who can guard 1 through 4 well.

[payitforward]

Rui is a smart, motivated kid with plenty of natural athletic talent. OTOH, he has some flaws that might just reflect his coming to the game a little later than some others.

So, it's an open question how good an NBA player he's going to be. Something you can say about most rookies.

What's weird, to me at least, is how important he seems to so many people. As if the Wizards will stand or fall based on how good Rui is. As if we have to know now, right now, how good he "is." & it has to be really good. Otherwise all is lost!

Why?

No one lays that kind of stuff on Troy Brown. When Bonga plays his ass off, people barely react. Bryant gets more hate than love. Honestly, I don't get it.... Can anyone explain?

[TGW]

As much as I like Rui if he can’t play good defense he really limits us in terms of how to build the team. Because when looking at the forward position wwe are now limited to legit two way players. There’s a plethora of forwards that can score about do nothing else. In an ideal world Rui would become a plus defender that can guard both 3’s and 4’s. In addition, going forward we need to prioritize finding a guy who can guard 1 through 4 well.

Until the culture changes in DC, he'll be a one-way player like everyone else on this team.

[CntOutSmrtCrazy]

As much as I like Rui if he can’t play good defense he really limits us in terms of how to build the team. Because when looking at the forward position wwe are now limited to legit two way players. There’s a plethora of forwards that can score about do nothing else. In an ideal world Rui would become a plus defender that can guard both 3’s and 4’s. In addition, going forward we need to prioritize finding a guy who can guard 1 through 4 well.

Until the culture changes in DC, he'll be a one-way player like everyone else on this team.

In before Brandon Clarke is mentioned.

[doclinkin]

Rui is a smart, motivated kid with plenty of natural athletic talent. OTOH, he has some flaws that might just reflect his coming to the game a little later than some others.

So, it's an open question how good an NBA player he's going to be. Something you can say about most rookies.

What's weird, to me at least, is how important he seems to so many people. As if the Wizards will stand or fall based on how good Rui is. As if we have to know now, right now, how good he "is." & it has to be really good. Otherwise all is lost!

Why?

No one lays that kind of stuff on Troy Brown. When Bonga plays his ass off, people barely react. Bryant gets more hate than love. Honestly, I don't get it.... Can anyone explain?

Higher draft picks are commonly freighted with expectations. By fans, coaches and front offices alike. They get more second chances. Get paid better. Get more playing time. Get more press, media attention, endorsement deals.

In the case of Rui, some part of it is position. We have no positional redundancy behind him. With two allstars in our backcourt we need front court players who can synergize with them. The one thing that Rui did well in college was to score efficiently. Even without much 3pt range, or overwhelming trips to the FT line. He scored in traffic, while guarded, as the focal point of the offense, carrying a high usage load. As with high draft picks, players who feature as scorers get more credit and second chances than quieter and more efficient support players. Few highlight reels feature a punishing screen, or a nifty box out of two players on one play. No highlight reels play a guy moving intelligently without the ball to the open space. Dunk, dunk, dunk. Shoot with a man in your face. Hit a deep three at the buzzer. That's what looks juiciest.

If this team had a dangerous frontcourt scorer, then our back court becomes more efficient as well. Rui moves smooth, is developing quickly, looks the part, and has a good backstory and an affable personality. And his projected role is one that fans look for: can he put the biscuit in the bucket. As he develops more skills in that direction he will get applause and excite interest.

As for the others: Troy plays a distributing G/F. A role he shares with a few other players. So far he hasn't shown great chemsitry with the starters. Nor the ability to beat his match up. He's smart. A Glue guy. He scores on floaters and junk plays. Rebounds well for his size. No great range. No shut down Defense. Not dominant athleticism. But he plays within himself and finds ways to help the team. Not a flashy player is all. And has positional redundancy with our high usage back court. Yes he rebounds better than the rest of our front court. That says less about him than it does the rest of the team. If he had a more reliable 3 and D game, he would get more attention. As it stands he is projecting as a reliable captain of the 2nd team.

Bonga. He has played well on a losing team. 'Played well in a loss" doesn't tend to get you much attention. Even Beal who is playing at an incendiary heat with historical numbers, was overlooked in ASG and All NBA consideration. Played well in a loss, means you are just a better loser. IN the case of Bonga, he's sneaky good, in the exact same way Troy Brown is. Passing, surprising handles for a lanky player, no great outside shot, good with angles and lanes and timing. A throw in on a trade, he's similar in play to Troy. With seemingly an even quieter personality. We could build a team around this kind of players, but so far with two of them we still aren't winning. Or even coming close. IF they are noted as the better defenders on the team: we are still historically bad on defense. It's not saying much.

Which brings us to Bryant. Centers have a reduced role in this era. They need to be mobile outside/in on defense. Switching and setting screens to let the ball handlers work over the defense and the refs. The role of a center even traditionally was as defensive anchor, rebounder, shot deterrent. Bryant has shown he can hit a shot and score efficiently and that's nice. But as the keystone defender on a historically bad defense, he hasn't earned a ton of respect. He's a notch slow laterally, even if he does run the floor willingly up and down. He does not intimidate and deter shots with his length and verticality. He does not rebound outside of his standing radius. Doesn't really box out, nor set punishing screens. He scores efficiently when you get him the ball in good position. Thats nice. Our team has shown it can score well with him on the floor. But defensively he was losing minutes to the ghost of Yawn Mahinmi. Thats.... no good.

Right now we don't have the pieces or talent or players or coaching or chemistry to be a good team. So there is no point getting too excited about any of these guys playing well in a loss. If we see a flash of improvement in a guy who will likely get more extra chances to improve, then I'm okay with fans being excited about noting it. There's little else to get happy about, other than: "hey maybe Tommy will make another crazy move" and get us a billion draft picks that might eventually amount to something. Rui was just the official first of those crazy moves.

[JWizmentality]

Rui is a smart, motivated kid with plenty of natural athletic talent. OTOH, he has some flaws that might just reflect his coming to the game a little later than some others.

So, it's an open question how good an NBA player he's going to be. Something you can say about most rookies.

What's weird, to me at least, is how important he seems to so many people. As if the Wizards will stand or fall based on how good Rui is. As if we have to know now, right now, how good he "is." & it has to be really good. Otherwise all is lost!

Why?

No one lays that kind of stuff on Troy Brown. When Bonga plays his ass off, people barely react. Bryant gets more hate than love. Honestly, I don't get it.... Can anyone explain?

Higher draft picks are commonly freighted with expectations. By fans, coaches and front offices alike. They get more second chances. Get paid better. Get more playing time. Get more press, media attention, endorsement deals.

In the case of Rui, some part of it is position. We have no positional redundancy behind him. With two allstars in our backcourt we need front court players who can synergize with them. The one thing that Rui did well in college was to score efficiently. Even without much 3pt range, or overwhelming trips to the FT line. He scored in traffic, while guarded, as the focal point of the offense, carrying a high usage load. As with high draft picks, players who feature as scorers get more credit and second chances than quieter and more efficient support players. Few highlight reels feature a punishing screen, or a nifty box out of two players on one play. No highlight reels play a guy moving intelligently without the ball to the open space. Dunk, dunk, dunk. Shoot with a man in your face. Hit a deep three at the buzzer. That's what looks juiciest.

If this team had a dangerous frontcourt scorer, then our back court becomes more efficient as well. Rui moves smooth, is developing quickly, looks the part, and has a good backstory and an affable personality. And his projected role is one that fans look for: can he put the biscuit in the bucket. As he develops more skills in that direction he will get applause and excite interest.

As for the others: Troy plays a distributing G/F. A role he shares with a few other players. So far he hasn't shown great chemsitry with the starters. Nor the ability to beat his match up. He's smart. A Glue guy. He scores on floaters and junk plays. Rebounds well for his size. No great range. No shut down Defense. Not dominant athleticism. But he plays within himself and finds ways to help the team. Not a flashy player is all. And has positional redundancy with our high usage back court. Yes he rebounds better than the rest of our front court. That says less about him than it does the rest of the team. If he had a more reliable 3 and D game, he would get more attention. As it stands he is projecting as a reliable captain of the 2nd team.

Bonga. He has played well on a losing team. 'Played well in a loss" doesn't tend to get you much attention. Even Beal who is playing at an incendiary heat with historical numbers, was overlooked in ASG and All NBA consideration. Played well in a loss, means you are just a better loser. IN the case of Bonga, he's sneaky good, in the exact same way Troy Brown is. Passing, surprising handles for a lanky player, no great outside shot, good with angles and lanes and timing. A throw in on a trade, he's similar in play to Troy. With seemingly an even quieter personality. We could build a team around this kind of players, but so far with two of them we still aren't winning. Or even coming close. IF they are noted as the better defenders on the team: we are still historically bad on defense. It's not saying much.

Which brings us to Bryant. Centers have a reduced role in this era. They need to be mobile outside/in on defense. Switching and setting screens to let the ball handlers work over the defense and the refs. The role of a center even traditionally was as defensive anchor, rebounder, shot deterrent. Bryant has shown he can hit a shot and score efficiently and that's nice. But as the keystone defender on a historically bad defense, he hasn't earned a ton of respect. He's a notch slow laterally, even if he does run the floor willingly up and down. He does not intimidate and deter shots with his length and verticality. He does not rebound outside of his standing radius. Doesn't really box out, nor set punishing screens. He scores efficiently when you get him the ball in good position. Thats nice. Our team has shown it can score well with him on the floor. But defensively he was losing minutes to the ghost of Yawn Mahinmi. Thats.... no good.

Right now we don't have the pieces or talent or players or coaching or chemistry to be a good team. So there is no point getting too excited about any of these guys playing well in a loss. If we see a flash of improvement in a guy who will likely get more extra chances to improve, then I'm okay with fans being excited about noting it. There's little else to get happy about, other than: "hey maybe Tommy will make another crazy move" and get us a billion draft picks that might eventually amount to something. Rui was just the official first of those crazy moves.

Doc ..ever the voice of morale crushing logic and reason.

[payitforward]

...the case of Rui.... With two allstars in our backcourt we need front court players who can synergize with them. The one thing that Rui did well in college was to score efficiently. Even without much 3pt range, or overwhelming trips to the FT line....

It's true. So maybe when we talk about his development, we would be best to hope for his returning to that .639 TS% of his last year at Gonzaga -- or close to it anyway.

Still... one aspect of synergizing with the back court would be to help give them more chances to shine, more possessions. & in that same senior year that featured the flashy TS%, Rui managed 8.6 boards & 1.3 steals per 40 minutes as against 2.4 TOs. That's a net 7.5 possessions he gave his team. As an NBA rookie, he's got that number up to 7.9. That's a "synergy" problem for a 4. An average NBA 4 gets his team 11 of those extra chances.

...If this team had a dangerous frontcourt scorer, then our back court becomes more efficient as well....

& if the team had a front court guy who got those 11 possessions per 40 minutes for other guys & also posted a 67% TS% (as against Rui's 54.3%) while he scored 20% more points than Rui as well, why that too would be good. Especially if he'd been available in the same draft as Rui. Right?

Of course, that guy doesn't exist, does he? That's asking too much, right? Except, he does. We both know who I'm thinking of.

...Troy plays a distributing G/F. A role he shares with a few other players. So far he hasn't shown great chemsitry with the starters. Nor the ability to beat his match up. He's smart. A Glue guy. He scores on floaters and junk plays. Rebounds well for his size. No great range. No shut down Defense. Not dominant athleticism. But he plays within himself and finds ways to help the team. Not a flashy player is all. And has positional redundancy with our high usage back court. Yes he rebounds better than the rest of our front court. That says less about him than it does the rest of the team. If he had a more reliable 3 and D game, he would get more attention. As it stands he is projecting as a reliable captain of the 2nd team....

Ooooh, I don't know about that, doc. If he's still doing all that when he's 24 you'll be right for sure. But, when I see a guy who's just turned 20 come into his second year in the league & perform at a level significantly above an average guy at his position, not to mention the positional versatility TBJ obvious has, I'm not likely to project him based on what he's done so far. I'm likely to think I have a potentially tremendous player in that guy.

...Bonga, he's sneaky good, in the exact same way Troy Brown is. Passing, surprising handles for a lanky player, no great outside shot, good with angles and lanes and timing..., similar to Troy....

Rinse & repeat what I wrote about TBJ just above. Except Bonga is even younger! But, I'm not so sure about "no great outside shot" as he develops -- he did shoot the 3 at 40%, right? 81.4% on FTs. 57.4% on 2-pointers. Not that he shot a lot! Still, made shots give you a higher opinion of a player than do missed shots; pretty sure of that.

...so far with two of them we still aren't winning....

True enough. Good as they both are, it's their future that is really intrigueing.

...Which brings us to Bryant. Centers have a reduced role in this era. They need to be mobile outside/in on defense. Switching and setting screens to let the ball handlers work over the defense and the refs. The role of a center even traditionally was as defensive anchor, rebounder, shot deterrent. Bryant has shown he can hit a shot and score efficiently and that's nice. But as the keystone defender on a historically bad defense, he hasn't earned a ton of respect. He's a notch slow laterally, even if he does run the floor willingly up and down. He does not intimidate and deter shots with his length and verticality. He does not rebound outside of his standing radius. Doesn't really box out, nor set punishing screens. He scores efficiently when you get him the ball in good position....

A guy who can get you 20 points per 40 minutes at a .66 TS% in a down year(!) -- while also grabbing an above average number of rebounds for a big, shooting 40% on 3s, & being above average in a bunch of other categories as well... I'd say that he's going to have to work on his defense if he wants to be a star in the league.

Especially if he's as old as Bryant is -- the guy is 6 months older than Rui Hachimura after all. I tell you what: it'll be great when Rui is as good a player as Thomas Bryant. I mean "if" he ever is.

Still you are right overall. Rui was a high draft pick; he'll get a much longer rope than these other guys. If we're lucky, he'll be worth that.

...Right now we don't have the pieces or talent or players or coaching or chemistry to be a good team....

True enough -- but the problem ain't Brown/Bonga/Bryant. We had 12 guys play for us this season who were at well below average production for their positions. They played a lot of minutes. Turns winning into a wall climb!

[doclinkin]

...Right now we don't have the pieces or talent or players or coaching or chemistry to be a good team....

True enough -- but the problem ain't Brown/Bonga/Bryant. We had 12 guys play for us this season who were at well below average production for their positions. They played a lot of minutes. Turns winning into a wall climb!

If we go by last year, yes one problem might be Bryant. Taking a look at the 5 man units Bryant featured in more minutes of losing squads than winning ones. http://www.82games.com/1920/1920WAS2.HTM Even when you scratch the Isaiah Thomas line ups. CHeck line ups 2 &n 3, where simply switching Mahinmi out for Bryant results in a 31 point swing in +/- . Not in Bryant's favor.

Still he has played better in prior years, so there's hope that he can return to form and improve. Which is all we have for all of our players aside from Bradley Beal. Hope that they will improve enough to one day be good.

[doclinkin]

Doc ..ever the voice of morale crushing logic and reason.

Oh I can put on my happy talk hat and make a case for this team in the future if you want to hear it. Including the players just mentioned.

Thomas Bryant Jr.
I was encouraged by how hard he was working against Montrezl et al in the UCLA open runs last offseason. He showed an outside shot, improved footwork in the post, he was even working on his outside defense. Okay perhaps he was showing the dribble drive more than he would need in the NBA, but in scrimmages like that you rarely get chemistry with a point guard. He and IT had a few moments, but still, a big man is a pass-dependent player. That seems to be the key in his case. He suffered significantly in playing next to the Hero Ball version of IT once the whistles were live. He played his best in the past in limited minutes next to John Wall. This goes both ways. Playing next to IT not only deprived him of touches but exposed his lateral difficulties on defense. He should not have been in the position to have to recover for outside breakdowns as often as he did. This has been true even when Wall was playing (if not to say healthy). The Bone Spurs John Wall was often standing around on defense as well, or letting the Pick and Roll switch him off his man rather than chase.. Bigs underneath had no chance to cover their man and everyone elses.

Here is a chance for the team to significantly improve: if we had better outside defense, bigs could stay at home within a one step do-si-do of the basket (to dodge the 3 second rule). If on the outside we had guards who would fight over and through the pick, then our Bigs would not be caught out of position on switches trying to keep up with smaller quicker guards. There is a chance of hope there. With the development of Real Deal Brad Beal, John Wall has been talking about how he can divert effort from high usage offense, to commit to defensive effort. Beal too has talked about how much effort he has spent on attack, to the detriment of his D. If Wall is coming back healthy and strong (STRONG! if the pics are to be believed) maybe he has the will to fight on defense. If so, he has proven in the past to be a shut down defender when he is locked in at that end. Stalling the opponent at the point of the attack gives us the luxury of playing our bigs close to the paint.

As for chasing Bigs to the perimeter: If opponents want their bigs to chuck rocks from outside, okay. let them. We have midrange rebounders who are willing to snatch long bounces. Brown. Beal. Wall. Bonga. All read angles well on rebounding outside shots. Bryant has long arms and can hoover up uncontested rebounds near the bucket. If we concede that sometimes an Embiid or KAT or Lopez will hit an outside shot, then we can commit to what we can do well while minimizing what we suck at: score efficiently; snatch rebounds. If so, we can keep Bryant on the floor, scoring efficiently is the thing he does best. He and Wall seemed to have good chemistry. In this case Wall simply has to show his leadership on defense first. And work the 2 man game with Bryant. Especially if Bryant can begin to groove that outside shot, for when Bigs sag off him on the pick, to try to prevent Wall from driving.

Brown. Bonga.
Both are young and skilled and precocious. Yes there is hope for development on outside shots. As hinted at above, they have a skill we do need: rebounding. Both try on defense and are smart. Neither has the athleticism to make up for teammates shortfalls, but both anticipate well and play good team ball at that end. Bonga's length surprises opponents. Troy has a sense of the Moment. Ultimately though the flashes of skill they are showing this young is the most hopeful thing. The fact that they are not flashy is actually a benefit. It means their re-sign price may have a few %'s discount, and we will see the real benefit of their early learning curve on their next contract. The fact that their games are similar gives us not only redundancy, but depth, to platoon players without drop off from one to the next. And redundancy allows you to explore trades for chemistry if there's a better fit. Both are here on a discount relative to their performance. If I could ask something of their development, I'd want them to hit the outside shots, and still do what they do: back door, smart passes, finish in traffic with floaters and junk balls. Play smart team D.

Rui.
What is hopeful here is his potential over his production. He has the requisite size and strength and athleticism. Coupled with his purported work ethic, the hope is that he can realize that potential. Granted his game is behind the curve on defense and rebounding. Those are key roles for a frontcourt player. But he is not scared of contact on offense, seems to relish banging and mixing it up. I wish we had a Charles Oakley/Rodman type who could teach him some fundamentals and dirty work underneath. Hire Mike Ruffin back here. Rui needs a Big Man camp to teach him how to properly use his physical advantages. That said, what people like about his game is the things he has shown in the past: high percentage scoring. While being doubled and hacked. Yeah he has tunnel vision. He doesn't pass out of defense. But in college and FIBA play he showed the ability to score anyway. And we see flashes of it here. When he is playing his game, he is tough to stop. He hit a ridiculous % of 2 pt shots in NCAA/FIBA. This is a secret weapon if it can translate to the next level. Teams don't scheme to stop 2pt jumpers. In the playoffs thats' what wins. Players like Kawhi feast on that fact. And that is what this team could potentially do to prove a mismatch against opponents. That was how Toronto won a chip and how the Bucks win the regular season every year. If you hit every 2pt shot you take, and rebound all the opponents missed threes, you control the tempo. On this team we also have Beal hitting outside shots, and possibly Bertans if we retain him, so all we need to solve is the rebounding part of the equation. Rui has the tools to do so, if not the instincts or repetitions. This is why I want to land a Xavier Tillman or other strong savvy fundamental interior player. I want a guy who can take Rui to school in practice and give him a wall to beat himself against.

The rest?
Wall. Beal. Tommy. Draft picks. And a team with guys that are good character and easy to cheer for.
It takes a few years for young players to win. The fact that Rui, Bonga, Brown are showing flashes early is exciting. They have vets who love the game for its own sake, lifers in it. Wall, every coach who has had him says he breathes basketball and is the smartest guy they've coached. He's got a lot to prove. If his health holds up then his Act 2 may surpass the first half of his career. Smarts and desire can make up for any decline in his foot speed. In Walls case he was often going too fast for the action anyway. 90% of John Wall is still faster than 80% of the league. It's not like he got shorter, and his game is based on a pass first read/react software that has been undone at times by teammates who don't see the game as quickly. As Tommy reminds us John Wall made an all-league defensive team. When he can focus on this end he is a terror.

Beal is putting up HOF numbers this year. Low ego guy who wants to be here. He has taken his teaching role seriously. He needs a back up to mentor, but still, his game fits any team. Why he has been coveted every year by every team that is trying to contend.

Tommy. He is a wild card. So far he has made some surprising moves. Mostly good. And people genuinely like him and seem to do favors for him. Thats a switch from the last guy who teams genuinely seemed to look forward to fleecing. The team is scoring at a ridiculous rate, even while they are outscored at the other end. He has put together an analytics team to inform not just drafting but in game play and half time adjustments. If we get the right parts I expect we will suddenly get surprising results in a good way. And I think we can trust Tommy to get the right parts. Hopefully to include coaching, in my opinion, but still. He's an optimist, and we clearly have room for improvement to live up to that spark of optimism.

Draft picks. This draft people are talking about selling 1st round picks for cash. !!!!

!!!

If Tommy has an open checkbook, this year we can steal some real talent on the cheap. There are some players in the draft who are under the radar, chiefly defensive players who are commonly undervalued and often don't look like the best picks in their draft year until 3-4 years down the line. But if this team can land a handful of solid picks and win the Pelton value game, then who knows what could happen. Draft picks are still always the place where you can land an all-star for pennies on the dollar if you are smart about it. Kawhi and Giannis say hello. You never know. But I do trust our scouring and analytics guys to find value out there. It's no longer relying on the eye test and picking knuckleheads based on athleticism and not results. IN a way I'm more excited about the UFA types like Garrison Matthews to see what Tommy can sift from the trash heap after the draft.

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Well... I love this post, doc! Way to go!