Prospect Spotlight -- Killian Hayes

[Jamaaliver]

Killian Hayes Has Evolved Into A Surefire Lottery Pick

In a draft class largely devoid of accomplished decision-making guards, Killian Hayes has become one of the safest guard prospects

Killian Hayes is now viewed by NBA personnel as a surefire lottery pick, having slowly but surely eclipsed French counterpart Theo Maledon, who had been the more highly-regarded player for the past couple of years. While Hayes’ range therein comes with some variance, there should be several teams in need of guard help that will look in his direction as the draft itself nears. In a draft class largely devoid of accomplished decision-making guards, Hayes was a breath of fresh air this season, averaging 11.5 points and 5.3 assists in 24.8 minutes as Ulm’s full-time starting point guard and answering questions about his ability to successfully run a team in a usage-heavy role.

The luxury that comes fielding multiple, net-positive playmakers on the floor at any time has become a tenet of success for a vast majority of successful NBA teams. It’s essentially a base condition for teams that want to play uptempo, move the ball, and manufacture the most efficient looks—corner threes and layups. For that style of play to translate into wins, first and foremost, you have to be able to curb the turnovers than often come as a byproduct of tempo. You could argue having one “true” point guard matters less than having two or three playmakers share the ball and share the floor. And that’s where the appeal begins with Hayes, who is arguably the most capable, mature decision-maker among the top guards in the draft,

Hayes told me two years ago that he patterns his game after Manu Ginobili, which makes sense the more you watch him and understand his level of craft. Hayes has already figured out how to maximize his size and stride length at 6’5”, getting extension and covering ground effectively on drives to compensate for an inability to play at the rim. Those types of finishes were a Ginobili hallmark. Ginobili, of course, was a dynamic shot-maker, and Hayes’ jump shot and lack of explosiveness are still the big questionmarks for scouts. There’s optimism that the former will improve and that the latter can be mitigated by his technique, and it helps that Hayes has always seemed to genuinely like playing defense, even if he may not be great guarding on the ball. His size should allow him to hide away from it if necessary.

Hayes has a unique type of cadence to his dribble that makes him difficult to guard, and it’s not totally crazy to think that if everything breaks right, he could handle a Shai Gilgeous-Alexander or Jamal Murray-type offensive role as a playmaking combo guard. The long-term potential has always been fairly obvious, and he doesn’t turn 19 until July, leaving plenty of room for optimism as far as his development runway is concerned. Where he actually lands in the lottery will depend strongly on team fit, but a team like the Knicks or Bulls in need of a true playmaker could make sense as a landing spot. It’ll take some patience for Hayes to work out the kinks, and if he doesn’t shoot, taking him in the Top 10 may not look like a good decision in hindsight. But there’s plenty of reason to be comfortable betting on him, and for many players in this draft class, that’s not quite the case.

SI.com

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More recently, though...

2020 NBA Draft Buzz

Teams Aren't as High on Killian Hayes as Bleacher Report and Various Media

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The No. 2 player on Bleacher Report's big board isn't No. 2 for NBA teams. We haven't talked to any scout that had Killian Hayes that high, with their concerns focused on his burst, shooting, favorable role for putting up stats and Ratiopharm Ulm's 1-9 record in Eurocup.

It's sounding likely that Hayes will be available to teams picking in the second half of the lottery, as Haliburton appears to be a more popular point guard.

Hayes chose not to join Ratiopharm when the German League season resumed last month. Instead, he started training for the draft.

Though we love his combination of pick-and-roll scoring and passing, shot-creation skills, touch in the paint, shot-making improvement and defensive awareness, it's safer to project the 6'5" ball-handler falling in the No. 7-14 range.

Bleacher Report

[Spud2nique]

Lotta people like Killian Hayes. I don’t. I think he’s a great college system type of player and would be a good fit on a championship type team. If I’m the Raptors or somebody that has a good foundation, I try and trade up a bit for this guy (up for the Raps to 7-14) and have him grow with the current core. For the Hawks, I don’t like him as much.

[King Ken]

I like Hayes. I think highly of him and think he's fairly polished but I can see why teams aren't so high on him. His ceiling is a lot more limited than his fanboys think it is.

[Jamaaliver]

2020's Top 10 International NBA Draft Prospects

1. Killian Hayes (Ratiopharm Ulm, PG, 2001)

Draft projection: Top 10

While scouts sound split on how high to rank Killian Hayes, he's our No. 1 international prospect after making key improvements since last season. Even if he didn't, Hayes would have fallen into our Top 5 based on his 6'5" positional size, playmaking and track record dating back to 2017, when he won MVP of both the U16 European Championship and Jordan Brand Classic International Game.

Hayes is a natural passer with terrific feel and pace operating out of pick-and-rolls. Playing the entire season at 18 years old, he finished third in Eurocup in assists with Ratiopharm Ulm. Still, his rise on draft boards should be attributed to his scoring efficiency, sharper moves for shot-creation and increased shot-making confidence.

He shot 58.0 percent at the rim and flashed new step-back and pull-up footwork for creating separation and shooting off the dribble. And after making 14 threes in 34 games in 2018-19, he hit 30 in 33 combined games this past season, a promising development despite a 29.4 percent three-point mark.

Converting 41.1 percent of his dribble jumpers and hitting 87.6 percent of his free throws are more encouraging signs of touch that point to a path for more shooting improvement.

NBA scouts do question his lack of burst for a primary ball-handler, which could be a problem if his outside shot doesn't get much better. But there is too much to bet on with Hayes, whose age, tools, facilitating expertise, expanding skill set and effectiveness overseas reflect a well-rounded scouting profile.

Bleacher Report

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Luka Doncic is why LaMelo Ball and Killian Hayes are considered the top two point guards in this year’s draft. Like Doncic, both Ball and Hayes made their names overseas and will need to use size and skill to make up for a lack of elite athleticism in the NBA.

Hayes, at 6-foot-5, isn’t quite as big. He has to work a little harder to create passing lanes. But he has the same ability to play with his head on a swivel and manipulate all five defenders with his dribble. He seems to know where everyone is on the court at all times.

Hayes wasn’t as quick as many of the smaller point guards he faced in Germany.

The threat of Luka’s jumper is the key to his success. He puts pressure on the defense as soon as he crosses half-court. Those shots are the equalizers that make slower guards like Luka play twice as fast as he would otherwise.

The argument for Hayes over Ball starts with his jumper. His raw 3-point-shooting numbers (29.4 percent on 3.1 attempts per game) aren’t much better, but you can see the difference in his free throw shooting (87.6 percent on 2.7 attempts) as well as his touch from 2-point range (58.8 percent on 5.5 attempts). Defenses know the difference. They press up on Hayes and force him to drive as much as possible. The degree of difficulty on his 3s is high. He takes a lot of stepbacks and pull-ups with a hand in his face.

But that is also a concern. Not many players can consistently make contested shots from 30-plus feet away. He would almost certainly have a higher 3-point percentage if he took easier shots, but a version of Hayes that doesn’t take those difficult shots wouldn’t have star potential.

He needs to be empowered to be successful. But while an unlimited green light in Germany was good for Hayes’s career, it might not have been as good for his team. They went 6-1-1 and made it to the semifinals of the German league in their restart this summer, which he sat out to prepare for the draft. It’s hard to win with a limited athlete doing so much for your offense, unless he plays nearly perfect basketball. And Hayes is nowhere near perfect at this stage of his career. Like a lot of young left-handers, he rarely uses his right hand.

Hayes has less margin for error than Doncic and Ball...many of these shots won’t be possible against bigger NBA defenders:

Basketball at the highest levels is a game of inches. Hayes, at 6'5", just doesn’t have as many to spare. That’s why he’s a nonfactor on the glass.

Both Hayes and Ball have a long way to go to be the next Doncic. The former isn’t as big. The latter isn’t as good of a shooter. Doncic fell to the no. 3 overall pick in 2018 because NBA teams didn’t believe his formula from overseas would translate. We now know that it will. But there is more reason to worry about the next generation of point guards who share his weakness without having all his strengths.

The Ringer

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Pro Player Comparisons for Projected Lottery Picks

Killian Hayes: Goran Dragic

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Goran Dragic didn't enter the league as a shooter, and neither will Killian Hayes, who'll make his mark with ball-screen passing and crafty offense.

Dragic eventually became comfortable from three, and an optimistic projection shows Hayes also improving based on the jump he made this year and the touch he's consistently shown on free throws and mid-range shots.

Otherwise, they're both efficient two-point scorers and clever playmakers who compensate for limited athleticism with skill and IQ.

Continuing to extend his range could help Hayes become a well-rounded threat and a quality NBA starter with borderline All-Star upside.

Bleacher Report

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No mention of a Hawks visit.

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2020 NBA Big Board: NBA Finals Edition

2. Killian Hayes (Ratiopharm Ulm, PG, 2001)

Scouts and executives will be anxious to see Killian Hayes measure, test athletically and shoot at the virtual NBA combine. It's unclear if he'll participate in every event, but he's interviewing with the majority of lottery teams, including the Golden State Warriors, who are slated to pick second.

Hayes has been in the top five on my board throughout the year based on his positional 6'5" size, high-level passing, improved shot-creation, soft touch and superior scoring efficiency compared to most NCAA point guards.

His jump shot remains the big question mark on the scouting report, but for a 19-year-old who made 30 three-pointers and shot a combined 87.6 percent from the free-throw line, his shooting development is worth betting on, particularly given his ball-screen playmaking, mid-range pull-up, floater and finishing effectiveness.

Bleacher Report

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Ranking the Top 5 Prospects at Every Position

Lead Ballhandlers: 2. Killian Hayes (Ratiopharm Ulm, PG 2001)

Elevator pitch: Hayes could be the draft's most complete guard if he's able to keep improving his shooting. Otherwise, he's a stud passer and efficient finisher who's proved he can be useful defensively.

Analysis: At 18 years old (now 19), Hayes registered an outstanding 38.7 assist percentage, a reflection on his ball-screen passing instincts. On the downside, his 24.7 turnover percentage was sky high, but it is still evident how advanced he is manipulating defenses and delivering passes off the dribble.

As a scorer, he shot 48.2 percent, executing his pull-up, floater and finishes while flashing notable improvements as a shot-creator.
He still hit just 29.4 percent of his threes, but considering that he doubled his three-point makes from a year ago (30 from 14) and shot 87.6 percent from the line, it's worth betting on more improvement for a 19-year-old.

Bleacher Report

[Jamaaliver]

Killian Hayes

Team: Ratiopharm Ulm (Germany)
Measurables: 6-foot-5, 190 pounds, 6-foot-8 wingspan
Stats (Per 36): 16.8 points, 4.1 rebounds, 7.8 assists, 2.1 steals, 4.7 turnovers, 1.23 PIPM
Shooting: 48.2% FG, 29.4% 3PT, 87.6% FT, 58.5% TS, 53.5% EFG

Strengths
Coming into the NBA, Hayes has the potential to shine immediately in a number of areas. With excellent vision, patience and technique, his ability to manipulate and punish defenses out of the pick-and-roll with pinpoint passes to shooters in the corners or to the rolling big man will be at the top of the list. Outside of the pick-and-roll, he has no problems playing creator for his teammates, as he is constantly looking to make the right play. The 19-year-old balances his facilitating chops with an elite blend of shot-creation and versatility, flashing advanced step-back and side-step maneuvers to free himself for a jump shot.

Defensively, Hayes thrived both on and off the ball in Germany. Going against grown men who outweigh him nine times out of ten, Hayes’ tenacity and awareness shone. His lateral movement and positioning has improved tenfold over the past 18 months, and his fast hands and ability to play the passing lanes created great steals numbers. He won’t enter the NBA as a lockdown defender, but there is a lot of reason for optimism and trust in his rapid growth on that end of the floor.


Weaknesses
The biggest weakness in Killian Hayes’ game right now is his complete dependence on his left hand. This hinders him in all areas, whether it be dribbling, finishing or passing. It should be a somewhat fixable flaw, but right now it’s something that coaches will pinpoint and game plan against.

The other gaping hole in the young French starlet’s game is his inefficiency on catch-and-shoot jumpers. While he was able to convert on 45.8 percent of his off-the-dribble attempts, he knocked down a paltry 22.2 percent of his catch-and-shoot jumpers. Nothing screams red flag in terms of his shooting form and release speed, but he hasn’t shown the ability to knock down standstill shots as of yet.

What If...
Hayes learns to operate off the ball and provide true value to a team as a player who can operate as a primary or secondary initiator? If he can combine the playmaking and shot creation with the ability the move without the ball and hit spot-up shots at a respectable clip, he could hit a high-end outcome of a CJ McCollum or a D’Angelo Russell.

Fit With Atlanta (9/10)
As a ball-dominant, left-handed point guard, there might some be some potential redundancies with D’Angelo Russell Trae Young, and the aforementioned catch-and-shoot troubles would need to improve to truly maximize his fit next to [him].

With that said, it’s not hard to get lost in the positive possibilities that a Hayes-[Hawks] partnership could provide. As a spread pick-and-roll instigator, Hayes would create enough of his own offense to keep fans happy. More importantly, he would optimize [John Collins]’ all-round offensive brilliance as a roller and popper while simultaneously feeding shooters like Young and Kevin Huerter a healthy diet of open triples.

He isn’t the sexiest name out there, but there is a real chance that Killian Hayes ends up the best player from this draft class.

T-Wolves SB Nation

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2020 NBA Draft Big Board

2. Killian Hayes (Ratiopharm Ulm, PG, 2001)

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There is plenty of interest in Killian Hayes in the Nos. 4-12 range. He's in the top three for me, mostly because of how well-rounded he's become, his improvement since last year and how well he checks out analytically.

At 6'5", he's an excellent passer and efficient scorer who uses pull-ups, floaters and finishes. And he's made a notable jump as a shot-creator around the perimeter. He took a step as a shot-maker as well, doubling his three-point makes from the previous season, though three-point shooting is still the weaknesses that's causing hesitation from scouts.

At this point, his jump shot is the only major question mark, as Hayes even looked like he could add value to a team defense.

Hayes reminds me of Goran Dragic, who also entered the NBA as a limited threat from deep.

Bleacher Report

[Jamaaliver]

I like this kid for us. He and Haliburton. Would've been good to have the team able to pit them against each other in a workout.

I'm starting to think this kid's ceiling is too good to pass up if he falls to #6. He can play 1 or 2. He can defend and initiate offense. Capable in isolation or in the pick and roll.

Few flaws, tons of strengths.

If this is the last lottery selection we'll have for a while, let's swing for the fences and take the guy many believe is the best player in the whole dang draft.

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[Spud2nique]

For some reason I see him and see Jay Williams of Duke or someone that has physical limitations in the NBA and is fit best for college style ball. Jannero Pargo with better passing. He doesn’t have IT. In fact, if I were to pick a top 10 bust it’s probably him.

Don’t take him Hawks, he not for us.

[Jamaaliver]

We've been mentioned as a potential team for KH.

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Analytics departments like Killian Hayes, who's received interest from point guard-needy teams like the Detroit Pistons and New York Knicks, but also the Atlanta Hawks and Sacramento Kings.

Bleacher Report


The Athletic's take on Hayes to Hawks rumors:

I think [Killian Hayes] is the best player who plausibly could be available with the sixth pick, but I also see some clear fit issues with Young. Hayes is big enough to defend twos, but he’s more dependent on playing with the ball in his hands and less capable of spacing the floor, so there would definitely be some issues figuring out the roles when the two play together. Since Young is probably the one player you would think definitely will be here for the long haul, I can see the argument for passing on Hayes.

But like you say, if I’m the Hawks, I absolutely bluff as hard as I can that Hayes is a target, because that might convince a team like Detroit or New York to trade up. Draft smoke-screening is difficult to do well but can be one of the most fun things you’ll ever do in a front office. I encourage everyone to try this at least once.

In all seriousness, there are two scenarios where this works out. The obvious is one that they give the Hawks an asset to move up from their spot, and the Hawks pick the player they wanted anyway at No. 7 or No. 8. But also, they could get spooked in such a way that they trade up to No. 5 to take Hayes … and then push another player down to Atlanta who might not otherwise have been available.

[Spud2nique]

We've been mentioned as a potential team for KH.

Code: Select all

Analytics departments like Killian Hayes, who's received interest from point guard-needy teams like the Detroit Pistons and New York Knicks, but also the Atlanta Hawks and Sacramento Kings.

Bleacher Report


The Athletic's take on Hayes to Hawks rumors:

I think [Killian Hayes] is the best player who plausibly could be available with the sixth pick, but I also see some clear fit issues with Young. Hayes is big enough to defend twos, but he’s more dependent on playing with the ball in his hands and less capable of spacing the floor, so there would definitely be some issues figuring out the roles when the two play together. Since Young is probably the one player you would think definitely will be here for the long haul, I can see the argument for passing on Hayes.

But like you say, if I’m the Hawks, I absolutely bluff as hard as I can that Hayes is a target, because that might convince a team like Detroit or New York to trade up. Draft smoke-screening is difficult to do well but can be one of the most fun things you’ll ever do in a front office. I encourage everyone to try this at least once.

In all seriousness, there are two scenarios where this works out. The obvious is one that they give the Hawks an asset to move up from their spot, and the Hawks pick the player they wanted anyway at No. 7 or No. 8. But also, they could get spooked in such a way that they trade up to No. 5 to take Hayes … and then push another player down to Atlanta who might not otherwise have been available.

No way! Absolute smoke screen. I’ll bank on this one.