2020 Season/Offseason (FA/Trade) Speculation - the Season Resumes

[bwgood77]

As they say 'it only takes one team' but I just don't think there will be a strong market for him. I think it's going to be a brutal market in general for FAs especially for role players. I'd say the MLE is his absolute best case scenario.

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The highest value guys are still max players, rookie scale guys, and vet minimum guys. Anybody who falls outside of those I think will see a shrunk market. I think Oubre is going to be frustrated with us again when hi deal comes up , for instance, because it will be similar to Bledsoe's deal where we give him a good offer and ask him to get a better one in the market ad we'll match or beat it, and he won't be able to do it and will blame us for that.

Yup. Specifically this coming off-season the middle class is going to be completely **** in FA. With a good chance we won't have full arenas owners will be super cost conscious and id bet a bunch of over the cap teams won't use the MLE.

Now if things are normal in the summer of 21 a guy like Dario could get the MLE.

I don't know what oubre would get in a market like this winter, haven't thought about it since he's under contract. What he gets in 21 will depend how he plays next year. He would get more than dairo though since long wings are much more valued than non athletic PFs, that and he's just a better player.

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I don't know that most owners will be that much more cash strapped because of the pandemic..obviously it hurts a guy like Sarver who barely had enough to buy the team, even with debt and other owners, but most of the other guys are pretty rich...and this probably didn't hurt them much. Unless the cap shrinks so much it puts people in the tax, but I don't see them letting that happen.

I bet they are KILLING it on tv money right now though. ESPN is showing games all day...now I don't know if the ESPN deals are a set amount already but if so they were fine anyway. Non playoff owners just lost 2 weeks or so of home games (being that the season got delayed a month before season's end and roughly half the games would have been on the road). Teams will miss playoff revenue, but only a handful advance past more than two rounds, so would have more then 4-6 playoff home games.

Basically I don't think it will impact many teams using their MLE if they were planning on using it...we are probably the most likely team that would make such a decision (and of course we are all expecting them to use it if they work over the cap).

I have no idea what Oubre's value would be. $15 felt like more than I wanted to pay, but based on #s fans were throwing out there, I was kind of relieved it was 2 years at that amount. But any more than that seems excessive, especially for a lot of years. It seems I've heard high #s thrown around...it was interesting to see RAPTOR had his at about $11 million a year. As big of a Bridges fan, I was still pretty shocked his was about double that amount already.

[suns12345]

If we can trade Oubre for Gordon I would do it. Ball movement would improve, and we'd be playing a bigger lineup without losing the versatility or quickness we have because of Gordon's athleticism. We'd just need Gordon to up his shooting % to 34-35% from 3. His FT% ot improving is kind of concerning as far as him ever being able to do that though.

Only downside is it kind of closes the draft in the sense of we'd have to get a guard. Me personally, I would draft Avdija if he was the best on my big board and use him as a 30 minute guy to prevent wear on Ayton and Gordon, but I don't think our FO would look at it that way. I don't trust Jones much so I could see him reaching for a Cole Anthony (non-versatile 1 skill guy (scorer)) or another Jerome or Kaminsky type (1 position shooters who don't shoot well enough to offset other weaknesses). I'd just have to hope one of the guards I like (Vassell, Haliburton, Hayes) was there o they don't reach for Anthony.

I'd be fine with a Gordon trade. I think he's had a down year and would bounce back, but he also only has a couple years left. Bridges and Ayton will be up for extension and RAPTOR ranks their 5 year values the highest. I don't want to give Oubre a lot of money next summer and then have Ayton and Bridges both up for big paydays. I don't know that you can pay both Oubre and Bridges a lot and Bridges will be in much higher demand and worth more. So if we can't trade him now you may have to trade him by the deadline or just let him walk, or risk having to give up assets to dump him later if you overpay him...give him more than like $15, which is probably an overpay anyway.

I really don't see Jones going for Cole Anthony AT ALL. He was extremely inefficient. He seems to want efficient college guys, and doesn't want raw guys. He drafted two upper classmen and was involved in the Bridges pick too...those are 3 guys who had long college careers.

I'd be good with Avdija...I really like his playmaking and he can shoot. I'd be real happy with Toppin. I think he is overanalyzed and people are picking him apart a bit too much. The guy was the best player in college this year winning the AP Player of the year, Naismith Player of the year, the Wooden Award, the Oscar Robertson trophy....

He had a smaller school, Dayton, going from unranked to like #5 in the country....this was unprecedented...Ja elevated his team the year before but not like this.

He reminds me of Amare with a 3 and better passing....of course the subpar D too. But it's weird...there are people low on him that were high on Bagley for example who had a far less dynamic offensive game (array of skills) and Bagley was lost on defense...didn't even play it in college..they had to go zone because of him. Granted I didn't like Bagley and had him like 8th but that was a lot more solid draft class too.

But look at other PFs today, you don't see a lot of shut down PF defenders outside of Giannis, AD, Draymond, Pascal and some of the star bigger wings that play some PF like Kawhi or George (whoever guards the PF)...Collins, Randle, Bagley, Sabonis..none of these guys are great defenders but none have nearly the offensive repertoire of Toppin either.

I think Toppin being a legit offensive weapon in the NBA, maybe even star quality, is one of the more sure things of this draft class.

And lets face it, most of the other guys are pure projection (and could be busts) outside of maybe Vassell and Halliburton and probably Okongwu and Wiseman.

Of course I don't think he will make it to us and there are surely a few teams above us who love him, so this is probably all moot unless we move up.

I like Avdija too though (I have him and Toppin about equal)...and then Vassell. I like Halliburton too...I do wish he had a higher release on his shot though. Haven't seen enough of Ball and Hayes and don't like the fits of other bigs.

I do like playing wings with Ayton but also think you could use a guy like Toppin or Avdija possibly as a backup small ball 5 and maybe against some bigger lineups with lesser athletic, post up PFs.

Of course all the guys I named I like are likely to be gone....if we are 10th and the top 9 go according to tankathon's big board http://www.tankathon.com/big_board

I'd be tempted to trade down. Aleksej is a little enticing, but I think he's just too raw...otherwise I might go with Bey. I am not sure why Okoro is mocked to go much higher..probably because he is a freshman but Bey's #s are better across the board and he is an elite defender. Bey would be a nice pick especially if they were planning on dealing Oubre.

I'd probably take a look at RJ Hampton...I haven't really looked at him at all.

Do you see backlash/chemistry issues from the remaining players if we don't look after Oubre? everyone seems to love him.

[WeekapaugGroove]

The highest value guys are still max players, rookie scale guys, and vet minimum guys. Anybody who falls outside of those I think will see a shrunk market. I think Oubre is going to be frustrated with us again when hi deal comes up , for instance, because it will be similar to Bledsoe's deal where we give him a good offer and ask him to get a better one in the market ad we'll match or beat it, and he won't be able to do it and will blame us for that.

Yup. Specifically this coming off-season the middle class is going to be completely **** in FA. With a good chance we won't have full arenas owners will be super cost conscious and id bet a bunch of over the cap teams won't use the MLE.

Now if things are normal in the summer of 21 a guy like Dario could get the MLE.

I don't know what oubre would get in a market like this winter, haven't thought about it since he's under contract. What he gets in 21 will depend how he plays next year. He would get more than dairo though since long wings are much more valued than non athletic PFs, that and he's just a better player.

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I don't know that most owners will be that much more cash strapped because of the pandemic..obviously it hurts a guy like Sarver who barely had enough to buy the team, even with debt and other owners, but most of the other guys are pretty rich...and this probably didn't hurt them much. Unless the cap shrinks so much it puts people in the tax, but I don't see them letting that happen.

I bet they are KILLING it on tv money right now though. ESPN is showing games all day...now I don't know if the ESPN deals are a set amount already but if so they were fine anyway. Non playoff owners just lost 2 weeks or so of home games (being that the season got delayed a month before season's end and roughly half the games would have been on the road). Teams will miss playoff revenue, but only a handful advance past more than two rounds, so would have more then 4-6 playoff home games.

Basically I don't think it will impact many teams using their MLE if they were planning on using it...we are probably the most likely team that would make such a decision (and of course we are all expecting them to use it if they work over the cap).

I have no idea what Oubre's value would be. $15 felt like more than I wanted to pay, but based on #s fans were throwing out there, I was kind of relieved it was 2 years at that amount. But any more than that seems excessive, especially for a lot of years. It seems I've heard high #s thrown around...it was interesting to see RAPTOR had his at about $11 million a year. As big of a Bridges fan, I was still pretty shocked his was about double that amount already.

Oh every owner in the league Saver included can afford to lose money for a year or two but never underestimate how much rich people actually hate losing money.

There's also the factor of a good FA class in 21 and some will use that as an excuse to not spend this winter.

I guess we'll see and maybe I'm being too pesimistic but I think it's going to be a nuclear winter for FAs.

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[bwgood77]

Do you see backlash/chemistry issues from the remaining players if we don't look after Oubre? everyone seems to love him.

No. And what is "looking after" him? Overpaying him? He is not playing. Players want to play. Life goes on. They have moved on from a lot of players who were in the clique...Josh Jackson, Tyler Ulis, Marquese Chriss.

I would bet most players like playing more with guys who pass more and put up fewer shots than Oubre does. I think they all like him but they seem to be doing fine without him now and I think they'd be fine if they moved on and say "It's a business" like they always do.

I think in general, sometimes fans worry too much about stuff like this. Most players are concerned with their own careers, getting better, more playing time, and sometimes, more shots.

I don't remember many times where a player was traded from a team and other players got mad and it messed up chemistry. I know Lowry was really upset Derozan got traded, but then they won a championship.

[bwgood77]

Oh every owner in the league Saver included can afford to lose money for a year or two but never underestimate how much rich people actually hate losing money.

There's also the factor of a good FA class in 21 and some will use that as an excuse to not spend this winter.

I guess we'll see and maybe I'm being too pesimistic but I think it's going to be a nuclear winter for FAs.

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Well, even before the pandemic, people said it would be a bad year for free agents because only a few teams had money to spend, so I agree with you, especially with this.

I don't know how many teams will really lose money on the year. Look at the revenue by team from last year https://www.statista.com/statistics/193704/revenue-of-national-basketball-association-teams-in-2010/ (I know link says 2010 but it's last year)

Now a number of teams have lost money in recent years, but not that many after revenue sharing, and not that much money. The last report I saw regarding profit was several years ago but my guess is that income has gone up since then. I know the combined net income of all teams was like $530 million a few years back...that is the profit. I believe the losers were like Brooklyn, Detroit and Memphis. I don't think Brooklyn is worried about spending though.

Some owners argue they should share enough revenue for all teams to be in the black...Paul Allen actually was one of the biggest advocates of that.

[ImNotMcDiSwear]

Do you see backlash/chemistry issues from the remaining players if we don't look after Oubre? everyone seems to love him.

No. And what is "looking after" him? Overpaying him? He is not playing. Players want to play. Life goes on. They have moved on from a lot of players who were in the clique...Josh Jackson, Tyler Ulis, Marquese Chriss.

I would be most players like playing more with guys who pass more and put up fewer shots than Oubre does. I think they all like him but they seem to be doing fine without him now and I think they'd be fine if they moved on and say "It's a business" like they always do.

I think in general, sometimes fans worry too much about stuff like this. Most players are concerned with their own careers, getting better, more playing time, and sometimes, more shots.

I don't remember many times where a player was traded from a team and other players got made and it messed up chemistry. I know Lowry was really upset Derozan got traded, but then they won a championship.

Bridges, Cam and Saric playing so well for us in the bubble really does put Kelly's place with the team into question. I don't think any of those guys are well-suited to the 5 or the 2, so when healthy, there really aren't enough minutes to go around. I know Bridges can play some 2 and Saric some 5, but still, I don't think it's ideal - especially not for Kelly.

[LV-Suns]

TJ Warren going off for the Pacers

[nevetsov]

I was not adverse to the Oubre-for-Gordon talk, but now that Cam J is looking like he may grow into a decent PF prospect, I'm less likely to want to trade Oubre for one.

I really think the Bridges-Johnson-Ayton frontcourt is our future. All are on rookie deals still so it's a nice little core to have.

With Cam J at PF, we also have depth at the position with Saric as a bench guy who can spot start, and Kaminsky at third string who can play occasional backup minutes.

Same goes for Ayton-Baynes-Diallo (though I'm not sold on Diallo in that role - could use a third string upgrade).

Over the next two seasons our needs are going to be:

Wing depth, and
PG of the future.

We can probably get by with Rubio (starter), Payne (backup) and Carter (3rd) for another year, as long as we don't have any long term injury that forces Carter to play major rotation minutes.

This may be the year to draft Vassell, and run with it. Oubre may be the best backup SF/ 6th man we can find.

[LV-Suns]

TJ with 50

[Flying Colors]

I will never be over the Warren trade, this is why we can never get anywhere

[King4Day]

I will never be over the Warren trade, this is why we can never get anywhere

I just hate that we couldn't get anything for him and had to pay to get rid of him. Looking back, we could have used him off our bench.

[bwgood77]

I will never be over the Warren trade, this is why we can never get anywhere

I just hate that we couldn't get anything for him and had to pay to get rid of him. Looking back, we could have used him off our bench.

Damn, I just saw that box score...53 on 69% shooting, 75% from 3 (9 3s!). It's pretty amazing how he became such a high volume solid 3 pt shooter, and hits at a better rate than anyone on our team outside of Cam and Carter. Also had a few assists and a couple blocks.

Not a bad contract at less than $11 million this year, $12 next year and a little less than $13 the following year. Pacers had a nice offseason last summer. Brogdon didn't even play tonight.

[King Ken]

I will never be over the Warren trade, this is why we can never get anywhere

I just hate that we couldn't get anything for him and had to pay to get rid of him. Looking back, we could have used him off our bench.

Damn, I just saw that box score...53 on 69% shooting, 75% from 3 (9 3s!). It's pretty amazing how he became such a high volume solid 3 pt shooter, and hits at a better rate than anyone on our team outside of Cam and Carter. Also had a few assists and a couple blocks.

Not a bad contract at less than $11 million this year, $12 next year and a little less than $13 the following year. Pacers had a nice offseason last summer. Brogdon didn't even play tonight.

He definitely was motivated to leave PHX like Bledsoe and Josh Jackson was. His PPT has been insane since Jan and it's only getting better. He's a part of the post Dec PPT gawds with Norm Powell, T. Ross, Cam Reddish, Zion, and Bradley Beal.

[SideSwipe]

I just hate that we couldn't get anything for him and had to pay to get rid of him. Looking back, we could have used him off our bench.

Damn, I just saw that box score...53 on 69% shooting, 75% from 3 (9 3s!). It's pretty amazing how he became such a high volume solid 3 pt shooter, and hits at a better rate than anyone on our team outside of Cam and Carter. Also had a few assists and a couple blocks.

Not a bad contract at less than $11 million this year, $12 next year and a little less than $13 the following year. Pacers had a nice offseason last summer. Brogdon didn't even play tonight.

He definitely was motivated to leave PHX like Bledsoe and Josh Jackson was. His PPT has been insane since Jan and it's only getting better. He's a part of the post Dec PPT gawds with Norm Powell, T. Ross, Cam Reddish, Zion, and Bradley Beal.

He only wanted to leave because he was underappreciated in PHX. This game is helping to prove that point. PHX never, ever should have gotten rid of him that cheaply. He can absolutely play. .599 TS% on volume.

[Revived]

The culture that the Suns have is just absolutely awful. That’s why many players don’t want to be here.

We need to pray collectively that some kind of dirt comes out on Sarver being sexist or racist or something and then hopefully Silver can force him to sell the team to help ensure competitiveness.

The man is just a loser. I didn’t even realize that the Suns sold their G league team until just now. What a joke to do that during a time in which more and more analytics should the importance of having a G league team and utilizing it properly.

He’s clearly not wealthy enough to be a successful owner, I don’t understand why he doesn’t just sell the team. He can probably make triple or more $$ on his initial investment.

[bwgood77]

Damn, I just saw that box score...53 on 69% shooting, 75% from 3 (9 3s!). It's pretty amazing how he became such a high volume solid 3 pt shooter, and hits at a better rate than anyone on our team outside of Cam and Carter. Also had a few assists and a couple blocks.

Not a bad contract at less than $11 million this year, $12 next year and a little less than $13 the following year. Pacers had a nice offseason last summer. Brogdon didn't even play tonight.

He definitely was motivated to leave PHX like Bledsoe and Josh Jackson was. His PPT has been insane since Jan and it's only getting better. He's a part of the post Dec PPT gawds with Norm Powell, T. Ross, Cam Reddish, Zion, and Bradley Beal.

He only wanted to leave because he was underappreciated in PHX. This game is helping to prove that point. PHX never, ever should have gotten rid of him that cheaply. He can absolutely play. .599 TS% on volume.

You can always count on TJ to score. The biggest complaint with him for so long was the 3 pt shooting, or not taking them, and then he took a bunch and shot 42.8% the year before we traded him. There were complaints about the defense, which wasn't nearly as bad as people made it out to be, but the main thing is, that was a solid contract...and he did have value. They could have waited to trade him until after teams struck out in FA...they just pulled the trigger too fast...but, a rookie GM is going to make rookie mistakes.

Worked out well for him though. Most players that leave the Suns in end in a good position..him, the Morris twins are on the Lakers and Clippers, Bledsoe on the Bucks, Tucker on the Rockets, Dragic on the Heat, Jackson and Melton on the Grizzlies, etc. Maybe Chriss can hang on with the Warriors.

[bwgood77]

The culture that the Suns have is just absolutely awful. That’s why many players don’t want to be here.

We need to pray collectively that some kind of dirt comes out on Sarver being sexist or racist or something and then hopefully Silver can force him to sell the team to help ensure competitiveness.

The man is just a loser. I didn’t even realize that the Suns sold their G league team until just now. What a joke to do that during a time in which more and more analytics should the importance of having a G league team and utilizing it properly.

He’s clearly not wealthy enough to be a successful owner, I don’t understand why he doesn’t just sell the team. He can probably make triple or more $$ on his initial investment.

It's worth over $1.6 billion. His net worth a year ago was still reported at $400 million. I think he bought the team for about that amount but had to leverage it with borrowing (of course he started a bank and is President of one so he probably has a nice interest rate)...and then he has minority owners of course.

I think he's gotten better post late 2000s though personally...now of course I want to blame McD for the player relations part....which it absolutely was his fault there but of course Sarver is the one who hired him....seemed like a good hire at the time though. Sarver did reportedly want Earl Watson though which was terrible.

[Saberestar]

I miss Warren on the Suns.

[Fo-Real]

Cry babys

[bwgood77]

Man, he was hitting some DEEP ones.... video here with article... https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/29580907/tj-warren-scores-career-high-53-pacers-win-sixers

Warren became the fifth player in NBA history to hit nine 3s and nine 2-point field goals in a game, joining James Harden (who has done it four times), Damian Lillard (twice) and Kobe Bryant and Stephen Curry (once each).