Official MMA discussion thread pt 2: UFC 268 in MSG Usman vs Colby 2, Rose vs Zhang 2

[HarthorneWingo]

From The Bloody Elbow:

Mike Tyson signed contract for Roy Jones exhibition fight while smoking a joint
The baddest man on the planet still knows how to maximize his media presence ahead of an exhibition fight with Roy Jones Jr.

It’s all love!

[j4remi]

That Till vs Whitaker fight was a lot of fun. Whitaker works so damned hard and mixes things up so well, it's impossible not to like the guy. Till is a sniper though and tough as hell too. Both dudes are elite. Now gimme Cannonier vs Whitaker ASAP!

Also, I guess we can toss out all the fun and interesting match-ups HW Gus was looking at for a bit. That was disappointing. Werdum said he's out too...Bellator for a rematch with Fedor and a Bader fight?

[HarthorneWingo]

What’s the deal Khamzat? Is he the monster that he appears to be?

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[j4remi]

What’s the deal Khamzat? Is he the monster that he appears to be?

Watch on YouTube

I'm gonna go with the cop out and say it's too early to say. His opposition hasn't been good enough to say too much and he's been too dominant to answer all of the questions we'll have. But boy is that dude scary right now.

He's using techniques that we know can work at this level. Can he continue to accomplish them with so much ease against guys that actually know how to grapple? That's tough to say until we see him face somebody that at least knows how to resist some of this stuff. But big Khabib has all of the tools on the surface that it's not a stretch to believe he can. It's the other two parts where we really need more to evaluate.

Getting fights to the ground is easier said than done. He's gotten his fights down there easily so far, but we'll need to see him against someone that we know can sprawl or pop back up quickly. We also don't know jack about his striking because of how quickly things have gone to the ground. He has some KO's on his record, the length is legit, but it's a pure wait and see scenario.

There's this second bit though, I haven't seen anyone watch this guy and not feel that "it" factor. He really REALLY looks the part. Lemme add a caveat here too though. Weasel was gassing it by only mentioning Zabit; we actually see people jump to that conclusion too quickly more often than not. For every Sean O'Malley, you'll run into a Johnny Walker...and there's a ton of space in between with types from Volkan Oezdemir to Darren Till.

All of that to say; the top 15 rankings tend to be sloppy and laughable but that hierarchy does bring one important value. Dudes have to climb the tiers, usually slowly, like it's the mountain in a Mortal Kombat game. You can't fight Goro for a title shot until you've beaten every kinda ninja with every element there is. So while I agree that everything about this cat screams, top ten...I'd still have some "prove it" fights on deck.

So what's my mountain? Start with an unranked guy on the verge of breaking in. A 15-10 ranked fighter next, preferably another riser to establish the winner before they get a vet. Then it's hard to say because of all the movement but you'd prefer a 10-5 opponent before he starts looking at a title shot. And that's a fast track into the conversation. If he slips up, cuts it close, has delays getting in there...any of that could slow things down. But that's the run I'd look for and I'm curious to see how fast he can make it. I do get more Izzy outta this guy than I ever did from Johnny Walker.

To start...give him Belal Muhammad. That's a guy who is tough as hell, unranked but verging on it and a very solid wrestler. He's got the experience and all around game to win ugly when he has to. That's be a great way to start testing out Chimaev, he's definitely a hype prospect.

[HarthorneWingo]

What’s the deal Khamzat? Is he the monster that he appears to be?

Watch on YouTube

I'm gonna go with the cop out and say it's too early to say. His opposition hasn't been good enough to say too much and he's been too dominant to answer all of the questions we'll have. But boy is that dude scary right now.

He's using techniques that we know can work at this level. Can he continue to accomplish them with so much ease against guys that actually know how to grapple? That's tough to say until we see him face somebody that at least knows how to resist some of this stuff. But big Khabib has all of the tools on the surface that it's not a stretch to believe he can. It's the other two parts where we really need more to evaluate.

Getting fights to the ground is easier said than done. He's gotten his fights down there easily so far, but we'll need to see him against someone that we know can sprawl or pop back up quickly. We also don't know jack about his striking because of how quickly things have gone to the ground. He has some KO's on his record, the length is legit, but it's a pure wait and see scenario.

There's this second bit though, I haven't seen anyone watch this guy and not feel that "it" factor. He really REALLY looks the part. Lemme add a caveat here too though. Weasel was gassing it by only mentioning Zabit; we actually see people jump to that conclusion too quickly more often than not. For every Sean O'Malley, you'll run into a Johnny Walker...and there's a ton of space in between with types from Volkan Oezdemir to Darren Till.

All of that to say; the top 15 rankings tend to be sloppy and laughable but that hierarchy does bring one important value. Dudes have to climb the tiers, usually slowly, like it's the mountain in a Mortal Kombat game. You can't fight Goro for a title shot until you've beaten every kinda ninja with every element there is. So while I agree that everything about this cat screams, top ten...I'd still have some "prove it" fights on deck.

So what's my mountain? Start with an unranked guy on the verge of breaking in. A 15-10 ranked fighter next, preferably another riser to establish the winner before they get a vet. Then it's hard to say because of all the movement but you'd prefer a 10-5 opponent before he starts looking at a title shot. And that's a fast track into the conversation. If he slips up, cuts it close, has delays getting in there...any of that could slow things down. But that's the run I'd look for and I'm curious to see how fast he can make it. I do get more Izzy outta this guy than I ever did from Johnny Walker.

To start...give him Belal Muhammad. That's a guy who is tough as hell, unranked but verging on it and a very solid wrestler. He's got the experience and all around game to win ugly when he has to. That's be a great way to start testing out Chimaev, he's definitely a hype prospect.

Yo.

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[j4remi]

Yo.

Watch on YouTube

It's definitely weird that Conor rushed to tweet that out as soon as the Khabib retirement talk started. But this is Conor we're talking about, he tweets all sorts of nonsense. Until there's a contract agreement announced, I'm just gonna hold off. Conor vs Ferguson is intriguing as hell but it's like my fifth pick for a Conor fight. I'd rather see him vs Gaethje, Masvidal, Poirier in a rematch, Max in a rematch and then it's 5a with a rematch against Nate being just as good to me.

Same with Tony...I'd rather see him fight Max, Poirier, Gaethje or Khabib.

And I'm also concerned about what weight Khabib vs GSP would happen at. I don't trust GSP to be the same at 155, years out of action and older than ever. There's every built in reason for that not be the fight it's supposed to be. At 170 though...it's a lot more interesting...also I think Usman would be great to watch vs Khabib too. They're both actually in their primes, both have built their entire games around cage work and both dominant right now.

Lastly, Conor moving up the rankings for no damned reason is just annoying and senseless. I wish the UFC would be consistent, the money plays are blatant as all hell.

[HarthorneWingo]

Yo.

Watch on YouTube

It's definitely weird that Conor rushed to tweet that out as soon as the Khabib retirement talk started. But this is Conor we're talking about, he tweets all sorts of nonsense. Until there's a contract agreement announced, I'm just gonna hold off. Conor vs Ferguson is intriguing as hell but it's like my fifth pick for a Conor fight. I'd rather see him vs Gaethje, Masvidal, Poirier in a rematch, Max in a rematch and then it's 5a with a rematch against Nate being just as good to me.

Same with Tony...I'd rather see him fight Max, Poirier, Gaethje or Khabib.

And I'm also concerned about what weight Khabib vs GSP would happen at. I don't trust GSP to be the same at 155, years out of action and older than ever. There's every built in reason for that not be the fight it's supposed to be. At 170 though...it's a lot more interesting...also I think Usman would be great to watch vs Khabib too. They're both actually in their primes, both have built their entire games around cage work and both dominant right now.

Lastly, Conor moving up the rankings for no damned reason is just annoying and senseless. I wish the UFC would be consistent, the money plays are blatant as all hell.

Do you think Conor moving up the rankings is a sign that something real is happening or has this happened before?

[j4remi]

Do you think Conor moving up the rankings is a sign that something real is happening or has this happened before?

Generally speaking, that sort of completely random movement is a precursor to something being booked. We see this with guys leap frogging big chunks of dudes too. That said, the ranking system is so fickle that there's no guarantee. If I were a betting man, I'd take 1:1 odds on Conor's next fight being at 155 if it does happen. This really does have all the aesthetics of wanting a rematch with Khabib.

...on a side note though, I saw some alleged pics of him walking around recently where he didn't look like he was in great shape. Far from the shape he was in prior to Cowboy at least.

[HarthorneWingo]

Do you think Conor moving up the rankings is a sign that something real is happening or has this happened before?

Generally speaking, that sort of completely random movement is a precursor to something being booked. We see this with guys leap frogging big chunks of dudes too. That said, the ranking system is so fickle that there's no guarantee. If I were a betting man, I'd take 1:1 odds on Conor's next fight being at 155 if it does happen. This really does have all the aesthetics of wanting a rematch with Khabib.

...on a side note though, I saw some alleged pics of him walking around recently where he didn't look like he was in great shape. Far from the shape he was in prior to Cowboy at least.

Yeah, certainly a little murky to say the least.

[HarthorneWingo]

Snotzian has no gas tank. Brunson looks like he made some nice adjustments to his game though he wasn't really tested tonight in my opinion. Who does he get next?

[HarthorneWingo]

Bendo vs. Chandler II on tonight (Bellator). I loved the first battle and thought Bendo won.

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[j4remi]

Bendo vs. Chandler II on tonight (Bellator). I loved the first battle and thought Bendo won.

______________________

Not a half bad card. I was rooting for Benson but kinda figured Chandler had the advantage (Bendo's lost a step). Jury vs Georgi was some fire though and Johnson surprised me with Mitrione. Loureda had the KO of the night, I'm glad she showed everyone that she's a real fighter after all the flack she gets.

The other big Bellator news was Corey Anderson signing; he had that big health scare recently and asked for release from the UFC. Now Bader might actually have a compelling LHW challenger; I'd like Anderson vs Mcgeary and Phil Davis if Coker wants to have Corey work his way up to a shot.

We got Lewis vs Oleinik tonight; I see a surprising number of people picking Oleinik for the upset. Lewis is tough to get down and even tougher to keep down; he's not gonna strike as poorly as Werdum. Weidman desperately needs a win against Omari Akhmedov. I think the best talent on the card after Lewis is actually the opener of the main card; Beneil Dariush.

For the prelim prospect watch, we've got Haqparast, Staropoli and Kevin Holland. Not sure things, although I like Haqparast's chances best of the trio with Holland next. These are three guys I could see building on their skillsets and making some noise.

[HarthorneWingo]

Bendo vs. Chandler II on tonight (Bellator). I loved the first battle and thought Bendo won.

______________________

Not a half bad card. I was rooting for Benson but kinda figured Chandler had the advantage (Bendo's lost a step). Jury vs Georgi was some fire though and Johnson surprised me with Mitrione. Loureda had the KO of the night, I'm glad she showed everyone that she's a real fighter after all the flack she gets.

The other big Bellator news was Corey Anderson signing; he had that big health scare recently and asked for release from the UFC. Now Bader might actually have a compelling LHW challenger; I'd like Anderson vs Mcgeary and Phil Davis if Coker wants to have Corey work his way up to a shot.

We got Lewis vs Oleinik tonight; I see a surprising number of people picking Oleinik for the upset. Lewis is tough to get down and even tougher to keep down; he's not gonna strike as poorly as Werdum. Weidman desperately needs a win against Omari Akhmedov. I think the best talent on the card after Lewis is actually the opener of the main card; Beneil Dariush.

For the prelim prospect watch, we've got Haqparast, Staropoli and Kevin Holland. Not sure things, although I like Haqparast's chances best of the trio with Holland next. These are three guys I could see building on their skillsets and making some noise.

The card last night was good. I was just so juiced for 5 rounds like the first fight.

Mitrione getting clocked on the chin with Kim Johnson’s very large skull was weird. That’s the first time I’ve ever seen that happen.

As for tonight’s show, I’m definitely looking forward to the Weidman and The Beast fights. I’ll be rooting for them both.

[HarthorneWingo]

You simply cannot choke out The Black Beast. It's impossible.

[j4remi]

So tomorrow marks one of the more historically significant fights of the entire year. We're essentially looking to establish one of two men's slot in the greatest HW of all time discussion. The rest of the card is a bit slept on but promising prospects abound and Sean O'Malley's star power finally hits a major test along the way. Let's focus on the big one though...

No heavyweight in history has a better UFC HW resume than Stipe Miocic. He has the most title defenses; he KO'ed former champions DC, Werdum, Arlovski, Junior Dos Santos; and he also KO'ed heavyweight legends Overeem and Hunt. He did all of that under the UFC banner.

The one man to beat him over the past 5 years is Daniel Cormier. DC needs no introduction. He's the best LHW of the era besides Jon Jones (aka my absolute GOAT pick). He's a rare two division champ off the KO of Stipe and also had an undefeated heavyweight record that included the likes of Josh Barnett, Jeff Monson and Big Foot Silva. We're getting a rubber match between two of the greatest champions the UFC.

There's also a LOT of intrigue to this one. Quick recap of the first two fights:
DC dominated for the first 4 rounds of the combined fights; he Knocked Stipe out in the first round of the first fight. In the second fight; he took Stipe down and when they stood up, he staggered Miocic with cleaner strikes and effective clinch work. But toward the end of the 4th of these DC show outs; Stipe discovered something that worked. DC's mummy guard requires reaching out to essentially stiff arm the opponent and then step into a collar tie clinch whenever the opponent tries to get past the guard. The problem is that when DC reaches out, his body is completely unprotected. So Stipe threw lead hooks to the body over...and over...and over...and when DC's guard dropped to shield his body; Stipe fired off at the head and landed clean.

What about tomorrow night?
The question now is whether or not DC has come up with an answer for the body shots. Jon Jones beat him with body work and then Stipe did as well. Then, if DC does have a way to put off those body strikes then what else has Stipe worked on? I'm honestly not sure.

I my guess is DC will change levels more, but not commit. In theory that gets him inside the distance Miocic needs to get torque and hurt the body. It also puts DC in clinch situations, where he's had a ton of success throughout his whole career. It's a smaller cage, the clinch will be available. Stipe meanwhile looks like he's in great shape and I suspect that's purely for mobility. He'll look to keep distance and let DC walk onto body work until he can feint low and come up high. Pure speculation though.

The Rest:
I won't mince words, the rest of the card probably won't stand out for most. But it's a complete prospect run. Fighters with star power are being tested to see if they should receive or continue to receive name value and ranked opposition. It looks to me like the UFC is using DC's retirement fight to try bring attention to some new school prospects.

Sean O'Malley is fighting a top 15 ready opponent in Marlon Vera. I sing O'Malley's praises every time he fights and I just did after he slept Eddie Wineland. I think he's the real deal. The kid sets traps and reads striking like a prodigy. But his question marks are that he has been hittable and we don't know much about his gas tank yet. Chito Vera is a pressure type of fighter, he gets hit but usually he's slipping so that the strikes don't do peak damage. He forces guys to throw constantly to keep him off of them and his boxing skills are pretty damned good. I still think O'Malley shows out, but this is a legitimate chance to get a clean read on O'Malley or it could establish Vera's name otherwise.

Jair Rozenstruik is fighting JDS prior to the main events. Rozenstruik is best remembered for getting run over by Francis Ngannou, but he also KO'ed Overeem and Arlovski to get that fight. He'll need to beat Dos Santos in order to maintain his status as HW contender. The exciting part is that both these guys are really good strikers overall with KO ability in both hands. This could turn into a really fun technical fight. Then again, Ngannou just took Rozenstruik's head off and JDS has been KO'ed in his last two fights. So it could be a fast one as well.

The next two fights are lesser proven prospects. One is Herbert Burns vs Daniel Pineda. Burns is a really promising up and comer through the Tuesday Night Contenders flow. I think he's looked absolutely legit in there so far, just untested. Pineda has been everywhere; UFC, Bellator and PFL. Pineda is getting back from failed PED tests with PFL though. Second is Merab Dvalishvili vs Jon Dodson which is interesting because Merab is relentless at getting fights where he wants it, usually on the mats. Dodson though is a really tough guy to takedown. My problem with both fights is that I could see them being slow.

Prelims...ehhhhh:
The issue I have with this card is that the prelims are featuring prospects that I'm not particularly hype about against vets that have probably reached the "fall off" phase of their careers. I'll always root for Jim Miller and Felice Herrig is always gonna be a tough out; but Vinc Pichel and Virna Jandiroba would have to REALLY show out in order to do get a prospect status boost. This looks like a card where injuries and movement around other cards have left it lacking depth.

Extra talk...Jon Jones and Francis Ngannou are waiting in the wings:
A recent comment from Dana White sounded to me like Jon Jones is waiting for the result of this fight to decide on whether or not he'll go HW or defend his LHW belt again. DC is gonna retire after this but I think if Stipe wins then we're on the verge of Jones vs Miocic. Jon already came close to fighting Ngannou but said the money wasn't right; a title fight would add PPV points to sweeten the pot. Ngannou is the other name in the conversation. Stipe seemed like he broke Francis, especially after Ngannou's next showing vs Derrick Lewis. But since then, Ngannou looks the part of the scariest human being in MMA today. So tomorrow's title fight has serious implications toward the future and there are monsters waiting.

[j4remi]

You simply cannot choke out The Black Beast. It's impossible.

His post fight interviews continued their trend of absolute comedy too. They asked about the chokes and he talked about how the he missed the crowd because their noise would drown out his choking sounds. Called himself the most dangerous blue belt in Texas. Got hot mic caught telling his manager to hurry the interview since he had to take a dump. And then confessed that he's not an mma fan or watcher

[HarthorneWingo]

You simply cannot choke out The Black Beast. It's impossible.

His post fight interviews continued their trend of absolute comedy too. They asked about the chokes and he talked about how the he missed the crowd because their noise would drown out his choking sounds. Called himself the most dangerous blue belt in Texas. Got hot mic caught telling his manager to hurry the interview since he had to take a dump. And then confessed that he's not an mma fan or watcher

Gotta love The Beast!

We got fights this weekend! Good card from what I hear.

[HarthorneWingo]

So tomorrow marks one of the more historically significant fights of the entire year. We're essentially looking to establish one of two men's slot in the greatest HW of all time discussion. The rest of the card is a bit slept on but promising prospects abound and Sean O'Malley's star power finally hits a major test along the way. Let's focus on the big one though...

No heavyweight in history has a better UFC HW resume than Stipe Miocic. He has the most title defenses; he KO'ed former champions DC, Werdum, Arlovski, Junior Dos Santos; and he also KO'ed heavyweight legends Overeem and Hunt. He did all of that under the UFC banner.

The one man to beat him over the past 5 years is Daniel Cormier. DC needs no introduction. He's the best LHW of the era besides Jon Jones (aka my absolute GOAT pick). He's a rare two division champ off the KO of Stipe and also had an undefeated heavyweight record that included the likes of Josh Barnett, Jeff Monson and Big Foot Silva. We're getting a rubber match between two of the greatest champions the UFC.

There's also a LOT of intrigue to this one. Quick recap of the first two fights:
DC dominated for the first 4 rounds of the combined fights; he Knocked Stipe out in the first round of the first fight. In the second fight; he took Stipe down and when they stood up, he staggered Miocic with cleaner strikes and effective clinch work. But toward the end of the 4th of these DC show outs; Stipe discovered something that worked. DC's mummy guard requires reaching out to essentially stiff arm the opponent and then step into a collar tie clinch whenever the opponent tries to get past the guard. The problem is that when DC reaches out, his body is completely unprotected. So Stipe threw lead hooks to the body over...and over...and over...and when DC's guard dropped to shield his body; Stipe fired off at the head and landed clean.

What about tomorrow night?
The question now is whether or not DC has come up with an answer for the body shots. Jon Jones beat him with body work and then Stipe did as well. Then, if DC does have a way to put off those body strikes then what else has Stipe worked on? I'm honestly not sure.

I my guess is DC will change levels more, but not commit. In theory that gets him inside the distance Miocic needs to get torque and hurt the body. It also puts DC in clinch situations, where he's had a ton of success throughout his whole career. It's a smaller cage, the clinch will be available. Stipe meanwhile looks like he's in great shape and I suspect that's purely for mobility. He'll look to keep distance and let DC walk onto body work until he can feint low and come up high. Pure speculation though.

The Rest:
I won't mince words, the rest of the card probably won't stand out for most. But it's a complete prospect run. Fighters with star power are being tested to see if they should receive or continue to receive name value and ranked opposition. It looks to me like the UFC is using DC's retirement fight to try bring attention to some new school prospects.

Sean O'Malley is fighting a top 15 ready opponent in Marlon Vera. I sing O'Malley's praises every time he fights and I just did after he slept Eddie Wineland. I think he's the real deal. The kid sets traps and reads striking like a prodigy. But his question marks are that he has been hittable and we don't know much about his gas tank yet. Chito Vera is a pressure type of fighter, he gets hit but usually he's slipping so that the strikes don't do peak damage. He forces guys to throw constantly to keep him off of them and his boxing skills are pretty damned good. I still think O'Malley shows out, but this is a legitimate chance to get a clean read on O'Malley or it could establish Vera's name otherwise.

Jair Rozenstruik is fighting JDS prior to the main events. Rozenstruik is best remembered for getting run over by Francis Ngannou, but he also KO'ed Overeem and Arlovski to get that fight. He'll need to beat Dos Santos in order to maintain his status as HW contender. The exciting part is that both these guys are really good strikers overall with KO ability in both hands. This could turn into a really fun technical fight. Then again, Ngannou just took Rozenstruik's head off and JDS has been KO'ed in his last two fights. So it could be a fast one as well.

The next two fights are lesser proven prospects. One is Herbert Burns vs Daniel Pineda. Burns is a really promising up and comer through the Tuesday Night Contenders flow. I think he's looked absolutely legit in there so far, just untested. Pineda has been everywhere; UFC, Bellator and PFL. Pineda is getting back from failed PED tests with PFL though. Second is Merab Dvalishvili vs Jon Dodson which is interesting because Merab is relentless at getting fights where he wants it, usually on the mats. Dodson though is a really tough guy to takedown. My problem with both fights is that I could see them being slow.

Prelims...ehhhhh:
The issue I have with this card is that the prelims are featuring prospects that I'm not particularly hype about against vets that have probably reached the "fall off" phase of their careers. I'll always root for Jim Miller and Felice Herrig is always gonna be a tough out; but Vinc Pichel and Virna Jandiroba would have to REALLY show out in order to do get a prospect status boost. This looks like a card where injuries and movement around other cards have left it lacking depth.

Extra talk...Jon Jones and Francis Ngannou are waiting in the wings:
A recent comment from Dana White sounded to me like Jon Jones is waiting for the result of this fight to decide on whether or not he'll go HW or defend his LHW belt again. DC is gonna retire after this but I think if Stipe wins then we're on the verge of Jones vs Miocic. Jon already came close to fighting Ngannou but said the money wasn't right; a title fight would add PPV points to sweeten the pot. Ngannou is the other name in the conversation. Stipe seemed like he broke Francis, especially after Ngannou's next showing vs Derrick Lewis. But since then, Ngannou looks the part of the scariest human being in MMA today. So tomorrow's title fight has serious implications toward the future and there are monsters waiting.

And Stipe also sent Ngannou back to the drawing board.

What do you think about Sean's opponent? I hear he has great leg kicks but comes up short with his fists.

[j4remi]

And Stipe also sent Ngannou back to the drawing board.

What do you think about Sean's opponent? I hear he has great leg kicks but comes up short with his fists.

Yeah, he beat Ngannou so bad that he was gun shy the next time out too. Francis got a wake up call with that one! Sean's opponent Chito Vera is LEGIT. I wouldn't say his punching is bad at all tbh, but it's not the prettiest style. He'll eat one to give one; try to roll with a punch instead of block it and his slipping is more effective the longer he's in there so early on he can get into trouble. His leg kicks are something I should have mentioned for sure though, he's got a chopping style. He'll be pressuring for sure...oh and he's tough as hell, some heavy punchers have hit him clean and he wouldn't go away.

Put it this way, if O'Malley gets another finish here, I'm all-in on him making a run to a title shot and that's in spite of 135 being absolutely loaded. That's still a risk proposition until we see him against high level grapplers but his striking is so good that I think he'll make a run one way or another.

[HarthorneWingo]

Who’s next for Weidman? He said he didn’t want to fight Rockhold again who’s now coming out of retirement. What about Jack Hermanson?