The Troy Brown Thread

[DCZards]

Brown suffers from a case of the Otto Porters. Where he just needs to get agressive and believe in his abilities !

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When he got subbed out last game they showed him on the bench and he looked disappointed

He's been looking that way a lot lately. I get the feeling there's a problem. Hopefully, there's communication between him and Brooks.

I don't see it. I sit on the lower level directly across from the Zards bench and I rarely see Brown looking anything but upbeat, and laughing and joking with teammates when he's on the bench. (I chose season ticket seats across from the Zards bench because I like to watch the interaction between players and players...and players and coaches.)

Not saying Troy isn't disappointed about playing time...but I think you guys are reading more into it than is there.

[SUPERBALLMAN]

When he got subbed out last game they showed him on the bench and he looked disappointed

He's been looking that way a lot lately. I get the feeling there's a problem. Hopefully, there's communication between him and Brooks.

I don't see it. I sit on the lower level directly across from the Zards bench and I rarely see Brown looking anything but upbeat, and laughing and joking with teammates when he's on the bench. (I chose season ticket seats across from the Zards bench because I like to watch the interaction between players and players...and players and coaches.)

Not saying Troy isn't disappointed about playing time...but I think you guys are reading more into it than is there.

You have a good view of Ted ??

[payitforward]

Troy is 20; he's on a pace to play 2000 minutes this NBA season. I sure hope he's upbeat!!

[Jimmy Recard]

Nice shout out for TBJ from Zach Lowe on his podcast yesterday:

I pick the wizards (over Brooklyn) for two reasons: one, Troy Brown Jr....I’m a believer. I’ve always been a believer. I’m a believer in him as a good complimentary player some day. He was buried for a lot of this season, emerged later in the season. There is no place to bury him now he’s going to start and he’s going to do stuff with the ball if the scrimmages are any indication. I just think he has a nice feel for the game. Every time I watch the wizards and Troy Brown plays for 5 consecutive minutes, and this doesn’t sound like a lot, but he does one or two things where I’m like, “ooh that was smart, that guy’s smart, or that was well timed, that pass was like a little earlier, or later sometimes, than most players would’ve thrown it”. He’s just a smart player and a like watching him play

Was also interesting listening to Chris Miller’s podcast a little while ago. He said just quietly that the front office is higher on Troy than any other of our young guys, including Rui.

[Ruzious]

I'd take TBJ over the 3rd pick in the 2019 draft - RJ Barrett. Interesting that Troy is regarded as a complimentary player, while RJ is thought of us a lead player. The distinction seems to come from RJ taking more shots due to his poor shot selection. Perhaps his coaches have been guilty of enabling RJ's faults.

[prime1time]

I'd take TBJ over the 3rd pick in the 2019 draft - RJ Barrett. Interesting that Troy is regarded as a complimentary player, while RJ is thought of us a lead player. The distinction seems to come from RJ taking more shots due to his poor shot selection. Perhaps his coaches have been guilty of enabling RJ's faults.

I'm fine with it tbh. I like taking players along slowly as they build their offensive game. I don't remember exactly what it was but it was either a video or an article breaking down Kelly Oubre's offensive evolution. There's a lot that goes into scoring at the next level, so the idea is to build a little bit each year. It is the rare player that will come in and do big-time things offensively straight off the bat.

In addition one of the reasons I advocated for keeping Brad is that his presence sets the standard for everyone else. Teams like the Knicks are in complete disarray because they don't have any strong leadership. We have RJ Barrett on this team and he would play a whole lot better. You put Troy Brown on the Knicks and he would not be good.

[prime1time]

Nice shout out for TBJ from Zach Lowe on his podcast yesterday:

I pick the wizards (over Brooklyn) for two reasons: one, Troy Brown Jr....I’m a believer. I’ve always been a believer. I’m a believer in him as a good complimentary player some day. He was buried for a lot of this season, emerged later in the season. There is no place to bury him now he’s going to start and he’s going to do stuff with the ball if the scrimmages are any indication. I just think he has a nice feel for the game. Every time I watch the wizards and Troy Brown plays for 5 consecutive minutes, and this doesn’t sound like a lot, but he does one or two things where I’m like, “ooh that was smart, that guy’s smart, or that was well timed, that pass was like a little earlier, or later sometimes, than most players would’ve thrown it”. He’s just a smart player and a like watching him play

Was also interesting listening to Chris Miller’s podcast a little while ago. He said just quietly that the front office is higher on Troy than any other of our young guys, including Rui.

That's really high praise. But tbh, both Rui and TBJr's future hinge on their ability to make the 3. If both of them can become solid shooters we'll be in a good place.

[dckingsfan]

Nice shout out for TBJ from Zach Lowe on his podcast yesterday:

I pick the wizards (over Brooklyn) for two reasons: one, Troy Brown Jr....I’m a believer. I’ve always been a believer. I’m a believer in him as a good complimentary player some day. He was buried for a lot of this season, emerged later in the season. There is no place to bury him now he’s going to start and he’s going to do stuff with the ball if the scrimmages are any indication. I just think he has a nice feel for the game. Every time I watch the wizards and Troy Brown plays for 5 consecutive minutes, and this doesn’t sound like a lot, but he does one or two things where I’m like, “ooh that was smart, that guy’s smart, or that was well timed, that pass was like a little earlier, or later sometimes, than most players would’ve thrown it”. He’s just a smart player and a like watching him play

Was also interesting listening to Chris Miller’s podcast a little while ago. He said just quietly that the front office is higher on Troy than any other of our young guys, including Rui.

That's really high praise. But tbh, both Rui and TBJr's future hinge on their ability to make the 3. If both of them can become solid shooters we'll be in a good place.

Can I agree but disagree at the same time - you could say I am confused

I think both Rui and TBJr's future hinge on their ability to defend a position or multiple positions.

[Ruzious]

Nice shout out for TBJ from Zach Lowe on his podcast yesterday:



Was also interesting listening to Chris Miller’s podcast a little while ago. He said just quietly that the front office is higher on Troy than any other of our young guys, including Rui.

That's really high praise. But tbh, both Rui and TBJr's future hinge on their ability to make the 3. If both of them can become solid shooters we'll be in a good place.

Can I agree but disagree at the same time - you could say I am confused

I think both Rui and TBJr's future hinge on their ability to defend a position or multiple positions.

Tbh, I think both of them have a ceiling of mediocre on defense. Given that, they both really need to become good 3 point shooters in order to be legit NBA starters, imo.

Many many years ago, I remember being in basketball camp - learning the art of the catch and shoot - even before the 3 point shot was popular. Ya gotta be in position to shoot before you catch the ball. It's not that hard - just have your feet set and bend your knees ready to shoot as the ball comes your way. But I guess it's harder to do that at NBA speed than 14 year old camp speed. Man, Jerian Grant could have had several easy 3's last game, but he just hasn't mastered the catch and shoot art. Players have to learn to play off the ball - even if they were point guards. Should learn that before you get to HS.

[prime1time]

That's really high praise. But tbh, both Rui and TBJr's future hinge on their ability to make the 3. If both of them can become solid shooters we'll be in a good place.

Can I agree but disagree at the same time - you could say I am confused

I think both Rui and TBJr's future hinge on their ability to defend a position or multiple positions.

Tbh, I think both of them have a ceiling of mediocre on defense. Given that, they both really need to become good 3 point shooters in order to be legit NBA starters, imo.

Many many years ago, I remember being in basketball camp - learning the art of the catch and shoot - even before the 3 point shot was popular. Ya gotta be in position to shoot before you catch the ball. It's not that hard - just have your feet set and bend your knees ready to shoot as the ball comes your way. But I guess it's harder to do that at NBA speed than 14 year old camp speed. Man, Jerian Grant could have had several easy 3's last game, but he just hasn't mastered the catch and shoot art. Players have to learn to play off the ball - even if they were point guards. Should learn that before you get to HS.

A lot of defense is just energy and awareness. They don't need to be all-team defensive players, but the team needs to play good defense as a whole. Look at the Cavs Warriors finals. Who on those Cavs teams were great defenders? Yet they slowed down the Warriors (non-KD).

[dckingsfan]

Can I agree but disagree at the same time - you could say I am confused

I think both Rui and TBJr's future hinge on their ability to defend a position or multiple positions.

Tbh, I think both of them have a ceiling of mediocre on defense. Given that, they both really need to become good 3 point shooters in order to be legit NBA starters, imo.

Many many years ago, I remember being in basketball camp - learning the art of the catch and shoot - even before the 3 point shot was popular. Ya gotta be in position to shoot before you catch the ball. It's not that hard - just have your feet set and bend your knees ready to shoot as the ball comes your way. But I guess it's harder to do that at NBA speed than 14 year old camp speed. Man, Jerian Grant could have had several easy 3's last game, but he just hasn't mastered the catch and shoot art. Players have to learn to play off the ball - even if they were point guards. Should learn that before you get to HS.

A lot of defense is just energy and awareness. They don't need to be all-team defensive players, but the team needs to play good defense as a whole. Look at the Cavs Warriors finals. Who on those Cavs teams were great defenders? Yet they slowed down the Warriors (non-KD).

I think that is anecdotal to the argument. I think that the future of both of them hinges both on their ability to get to be reasonably solid defenders AND hit the 3.

Now, if we are flipping away from individuals and to team. Yes, I agree that with the right players you can hide marginal defenders. Problem is, that would give us (if you will Wall, Beal, TBJr and Rui. It would be very hard to hide all four, no?

[prime1time]

Tbh, I think both of them have a ceiling of mediocre on defense. Given that, they both really need to become good 3 point shooters in order to be legit NBA starters, imo.

Many many years ago, I remember being in basketball camp - learning the art of the catch and shoot - even before the 3 point shot was popular. Ya gotta be in position to shoot before you catch the ball. It's not that hard - just have your feet set and bend your knees ready to shoot as the ball comes your way. But I guess it's harder to do that at NBA speed than 14 year old camp speed. Man, Jerian Grant could have had several easy 3's last game, but he just hasn't mastered the catch and shoot art. Players have to learn to play off the ball - even if they were point guards. Should learn that before you get to HS.

A lot of defense is just energy and awareness. They don't need to be all-team defensive players, but the team needs to play good defense as a whole. Look at the Cavs Warriors finals. Who on those Cavs teams were great defenders? Yet they slowed down the Warriors (non-KD).

I think that is anecdotal to the argument. I think that the future of both of them hinges both on their ability to get to be reasonably solid defenders AND hit the 3.

Now, if we are flipping away from individuals and to team. Yes, I agree that with the right players you can hide marginal defenders. Problem is, that would give us (if you will Wall, Beal, TBJr and Rui. It would be very hard to hide all four, no?

You misread my argument. I'm not flipping between individual defense and team defense, I'm saying other than giving out awards and trophies individual defense is irrelevant. If the player isn't a siv, they are good enough to be a member of a good defensive team. Defense is about communication, rotations and smarts. I'd argue that 25-30% is individual and the 70 to 75% is team. You put the same players that need to "improve on defense" on a good defensive team and they'd play defense. Would they stop everyone? No. But that's not that relevant anyway. Ultimately what I'm trying to say is that what needs to happen is that the Wiz need to create a culture of playing defense.

I don't disagree with you, I'm just saying that from what I've seen watching basketball defensive improvement comes when players are in an environment that requires defense. Tbh, I couldn't even tell you if they are actually bad defenders because I've never seen them, IMO, go all out playing defense. That's not even a knock on them. No one on the Wiz plays defense.

[dckingsfan]

A lot of defense is just energy and awareness. They don't need to be all-team defensive players, but the team needs to play good defense as a whole. Look at the Cavs Warriors finals. Who on those Cavs teams were great defenders? Yet they slowed down the Warriors (non-KD).

I think that is anecdotal to the argument. I think that the future of both of them hinges both on their ability to get to be reasonably solid defenders AND hit the 3.

Now, if we are flipping away from individuals and to team. Yes, I agree that with the right players you can hide marginal defenders. Problem is, that would give us (if you will Wall, Beal, TBJr and Rui. It would be very hard to hide all four, no?

You misread my argument. I'm not flipping between individual defense and team defense, I'm saying other than giving out awards and trophies individual defense is irrelevant. If the player isn't a siv, they are good enough to be a member of a good defensive team. Defense is about communication, rotations and smarts. I'd argue that 25-30% is individual and the 70 to 75% is team. You put the same players that need to "improve on defense" on a good defensive team and they'd play defense. Would they stop everyone? No. But that's not that relevant anyway. Ultimately what I'm trying to say is that what needs to happen is that the Wiz need to create a culture of playing defense.

I don't disagree with you, I'm just saying that from what I've seen watching basketball defensive improvement comes when players are in an environment that requires defense. Tbh, I couldn't even tell you if they are actually bad defenders because I've never seen them, IMO, go all out playing defense. That's not even a knock on them. No one on the Wiz plays defense.

Solid take...

[FAH1223]

My hot take is if Troy started at PG from Game 1 on, the Wiz probably have 5 more wins.

[Ruzious]

My hot take is if Troy started at PG from Game 1 on, the Wiz probably have 5 more wins.

I don't know if he has to be a PG, but he should at least be the secondary ball-handler. I think he can eventually develop a catch and shoot game, but at this point - he looks so much more comfortable with the ball in his hands - taking his man off the dribble. Unfortunately, on defense, he lets his man take him off the dribble too much. He's a talented asset that I hope the Wiz utilize better. And if they can't utilize him better, trade him.

[doclinkin]

My hot take is if Troy started at PG from Game 1 on, the Wiz probably have 5 more wins.

Not saying much. If Eric Fart Maynor started at PG instead of Hero Ball Thomas we'd have 3 more wins.

[payitforward]

Part of all this that we do here is projecting players - which happens to be what real GM's do. Arguably the first 2 things "you" want in a wing player in today's NBA are the ability to make 3's and to play defense, and - right now - Troy is below average at both. We don't know how much he'll improve in both areas, but does that mean we just wait and see? I think it's a fair question. Now, do I know of a way to project how well he'll develop? No. That's why I'm just a fan, and Pif is the virtual GM of the Golden State Warriors and former and future Executive of the Year.

Today's NBA game does indeed call for wing players to excel at shooting 3s and defending. And Troy struggles to do both at this point in his career. But he somewhat makes up for those shortcomings with his above average skills as a rebounder and passer, and his improving ability to create offense for himself and teammates.

If Troy improves as a shooter (which I believe he will) and as a defender, he’ll become that Swiss-army knife type of wing player who, imo, is far more valuable--and hard to find--than one who only excels at shooting 3s and defending.

There's already a LOT to like about Troy's game. His development, and not his fit, should be the focus.

To which I add my previous question of Ruz: what moves you to think Brown is a below-average defender? Not challenging you, Ruz -- just curious how you get to that.

[payitforward]

When we talk about the importance of 3-point shooting or things guys do on defense, what we mean by "importance" is their effect on a team's chances of winning a particular game & therefore of their effect on team record: overall wins. & when we talk about the importance of something else the guy does -- rebounds, say, or turnovers -- we are once again talking about the same thing: effect on wins.

Nothing else matters about any of it. Even though basketball is TV (or, sometimes, live) entertainment as well as competition, all we are talking about here is the competition part. We aren't putting on a play or painting a picture. We're not trying to create an impression or to have a team where everyone "fits" -- we're trying to win.

Therefore, when we say a player is "average," we mean that the sum of all the things he does on the court (defense & offense) has about the effect on team wins of an average player at his position -- & we don't mean anything in addition to that. This ain't aesthetics.

Every player is an individual; therefore each of them has a different set of numbers. But, we can still compare those numbers -- more of this, not as many of that, higher % in this, lower one in that, etc. We can do that, because we can figure out, over time, the effect on wins/losses of this, that, & the other thing.

& that's how we compare players. Moreover, it's the only meaningful way to do it. Period. It works. It can be proven to work. How? All you have to do is value those numbers accurately (how much does an assist add to the likelihood of winning, or an offensive board? how much does a TO detract? Or a missed FTA?). Nor is there any problem doing that valuation. You know what each player did, you know how many minutes each player logged, & you know the team's record. We have this data over many, many years. It's no trouble to figure out how they relate to team wins.

So, when we ask how good Troy Brown is now, we look at those numbers. When we ask whether he's better than he was last year, we compare his numbers this year to his numbers last year. & when we ask how good he is compared to an average wing, we look at his numbers compared to the average of what guys at his position post.

If we don't answer the question "how good is Troy Brown" off of those numbers, then we're not talking about how good Troy Brown is. Period. We're not talking about his effect is on wins/losses.

Instead, we're just talking about what we like to see -- about entertainment, as if basketball players were ballet dancers -- "look at those 'skills" -- or belly dancers if you prefer (I've known both, btw). Or, we are talking about how brilliant we are, the power of our special insights. How smart the guy in the mirror is.

Guess what? The guy in the mirror isn't as smart as the numbers. Troy Brown is a way above average NBA wing, because, overall, his numbers are way above the numbers of an average NBA wing. Period. Not every number. Just enough, & better enough, to use what we know of the effect of numbers on wins to see that he's way above average.

[Ruzious]

Part of all this that we do here is projecting players - which happens to be what real GM's do. Arguably the first 2 things "you" want in a wing player in today's NBA are the ability to make 3's and to play defense, and - right now - Troy is below average at both. We don't know how much he'll improve in both areas, but does that mean we just wait and see? I think it's a fair question. Now, do I know of a way to project how well he'll develop? No. That's why I'm just a fan, and Pif is the virtual GM of the Golden State Warriors and former and future Executive of the Year.

Today's NBA game does indeed call for wing players to excel at shooting 3s and defending. And Troy struggles to do both at this point in his career. But he somewhat makes up for those shortcomings with his above average skills as a rebounder and passer, and his improving ability to create offense for himself and teammates.

If Troy improves as a shooter (which I believe he will) and as a defender, he’ll become that Swiss-army knife type of wing player who, imo, is far more valuable--and hard to find--than one who only excels at shooting 3s and defending.

There's already a LOT to like about Troy's game. His development, and not his fit, should be the focus.

To which I add my previous question of Ruz: what moves you to think Brown is a below-average defender? Not challenging you, Ruz -- just curious how you get to that.

His occupation on his tax return is Matador.

He's not Isaiah Thomas, but everyone... goes right around him - players of all shapes, sizes, athletic abilities, colors, religious persuasions, and dietary restrictions. Even vegans literally (not literally) eat him for breakfast.

I mean... we are all able to actually watch him - what do you think of him as a defender?

[DCZards]

When we talk about the importance of 3-point shooting or things guys do on defense, what we mean by "importance" is their effect on a team's chances of winning a particular game & therefore of their effect on team record: overall wins. & when we talk about the importance of something else the guy does -- rebounds, say, or turnovers -- we are once again talking about the same thing: effect on wins.

Nothing else matters about any of it. Even though basketball is TV (or, sometimes, live) entertainment as well as competition, all we are talking about here is the competition part. We aren't putting on a play or painting a picture. We're not trying to create an impression or to have a team where everyone "fits" -- we're trying to win.

Therefore, when we say a player is "average," we mean that the sum of all the things he does on the court (defense & offense) has about the effect on team wins of an average player at his position -- & we don't mean anything in addition to that. This ain't aesthetics.

Every player is an individual; therefore each of them has a different set of numbers. But, we can still compare those numbers -- more of this, not as many of that, higher % in this, lower one in that, etc. We can do that, because we can figure out, over time, the effect on wins/losses of this, that, & the other thing.

& that's how we compare players. Moreover, it's the only meaningful way to do it. Period. It works. It can be proven to work. How? All you have to do is value those numbers accurately (how much does an assist add to the likelihood of winning, or an offensive board? how much does a TO detract? Or a missed FTA?). Nor is there any problem doing that valuation. You know what each player did, you know how many minutes each player logged, & you know the team's record. We have this data over many, many years. It's no trouble to figure out how they relate to team wins.

So, when we ask how good Troy Brown is now, we look at those numbers. When we ask whether he's better than he was last year, we compare his numbers this year to his numbers last year. & when we ask how good he is compared to an average wing, we look at his numbers compared to the average of what guys at his position post.

If we don't answer the question "how good is Troy Brown" off of those numbers, then we're not talking about how good Troy Brown is. Period. We're not talking about his effect is on wins/losses.

Instead, we're just talking about what we like to see -- about entertainment, as if basketball players were ballet dancers -- "look at those 'skills" -- or belly dancers if you prefer (I've known both, btw). Or, we are talking about how brilliant we are, the power of our special insights. How smart the guy in the mirror is.

Guess what? The guy in the mirror isn't as smart as the numbers. Troy Brown is a way above average NBA wing, because, overall, his numbers are way above the numbers of an average NBA wing. Period. Not every number. Just enough, & better enough, to use what we know of the effect of numbers on wins to see that he's way above average.

PIF, the numbers/stats individual players put up don’t tell the whole story. They never do and never will. Basketball is, after all, a team game.

If Troy can’t make 3s and is a mediocre jump shooter, it doesn’t simply impact his numbers it inevitably affects those of his teammates. If Troy can’t stay in front of the guy he’s guarding and that player gets to the hoop for an easy basket, that affects the score/outcome of the game…even though Troy’s getting beat off the dribble won't show up on his stat sheet. (Not to mention that Troy’s getting beat off the dribble could also impact the fouls picked up by the Zards big men.)

I’m a BIG fan of Troy’s and have been since the Zards drafted him and I started to take note of his skillset. But if he’s going to become an “above average wing” he needs to become a better shooter (which I’m convinced he can if he puts in the work) and a better defender.

Of course, I’m saying all of this based on how I personally evaluate and value wing players...which goes beyond numbers and stats.