hugepatsfan wrote:100proof wrote:In relation to Hayward opting out and signing for less. I cannot see any way that makes sense for him, and if I was his agent I wouldn't let him do it. Terrible business for him.
He almost had his career ended not long ago, he has not forgotten that, and knowing it can all end in an instant, and having multiple young children and a wife, etc, he needs to insure that he protects his future financial as much as possible. Be moronic to do any other.
Him opting out is an absolute, him resigning at a discount is not going to happen.
Atlanta, Knicks, Detroit, Charlotte, Heat can all offer more money that the starting 28 mill suggested by some posters. And because Boston cannot really offer more than 3 years in an opt out resign, any of those teams can offer the 4th year as well. the extra year is the key.
So with boston, opt out of 34 million with boston, resign at 28, 30, 32 = 90 million
Opt out of Boston, resign with any of the above teams at 28, 30, 32, 34 = 124 million.
No one gives up the opportunity for 34 million dollars. no one.
If he singed with any other team with capspace he could, if health stood (aged 34 at this point), sign another 2 year deal at say MLE (10 mill per season 2 years)
If he signed in Boston he would be 33 and would need to sign another contract for 3 years and 54 million dollars to come out even to the above scenario. How many 34 year old get 3 year deals for 54 million?
But good news, if Hayward opts out (why wouldn't he?) and he doesnt resign with the Celtics (why would he?) Celtics would be at 95 mill guaranteed, plus Theis team option of 5 mill, so the Celtics MIGHT have just a smidge below full MLE to help nab the best player in that market.
Also, since Danny does make them happen, a sign and trade could be possible, returning a player of around 15 mill in salary.
I think you can cross a few of those teams off the list.
Let's start with Detroit. They don't really have the cap space you say they do. https://www.spotrac.com/nba/detroit-pistons/cap/2020/ They're at $70.4M before signing their draft pick (projected #5) and filling out the empty roster holds. That's probably going to add at least $10M. So they're at $80M. The optimisitc projection is that the cap stays flat to this year at $109M. So that gives them $29M to spend total. Problem is, they don't have Bird Rights on Christian Wood who broke out in a big way. Can't see them letting him walk to sign Hayward when they're so far away from competing. Don't see them as a threat to offer the type of deal you're suggesting.
Onto Miami... https://www.spotrac.com/nba/miami-heat/cap/2020/ They're at $83.4M in salaries & dead money charges. They also have a 1st and some roster holds. So let's say they're at about $89M. That gives $20M to spend... not enough to offer a deal like you suggested. There's also reports they're going as far as not extending Adebayo now and putting it off until next year to preserve cap for a run at Giannis and/or Oladipo. Seems unlikely they'd do a multi-year deal for Hayward. If they miss on those guys next year, then they're a huge threat to poach Hayward if he opts in and plays out the option so a FA next year though.
CHA... https://www.spotrac.com/nba/charlotte-hornets/cap/2020/. They're at about $81.0M before their pick and roster holds. So call it $85M. That's only about $24M to spend. So wouldn't be able to get up to the total you suggest.
The Knicks and the Hawks are the only teams there that seem legit threats to have the cap for a deal you suggest. For Atlanta, that would mean spending all their pre-extension-for-young-players-cap-space on Hayward. He'd be eating up their cap while Young/Collins/Reddish/Hunter/Huerter are on rookie deal and Capela is on his current deal. Hayward wouldn't interfere with giving those guys new deals at the money you suggested, but he'd prevent them from using the money on younger guys that fit with that core. I just find it unlikely they want to go to the level you suggest for Hayward.
That really leaves the Knicks. IDK, he doesn't seem like a guy they'd pursue at this stage but you never know.
Ultimately, I don't think there's a significant threat of Hayward getting that 4 year deal you suggest. I think the obstacle to signing him to a 3 year deal would be just that he can get more by opting in and hitting FA next year. In theory at least. Remember, there's likely to be lingering COVID impact on next year and thus the future salary cap. It's also expected money is borrowed in future years to support the cap not dropping this offseason. That reduces money available for him in future years.
If Hayward opts in then he'll play out '20-21 and then hit FA going into his age 31 season. I have a hard time seeing him getting a 4 year deal at that age in the current environment and not being a star player. The target I've had in mind is Gallinari's last deal of 3 years $65M deal. He signed that at age 27, 4 years younger than Hayward will be. That puts his 4 year payout if he signs that after playing out the option at about $100M. So if he can lock in $90M over 3 years with the Celtics version of the deal you suggest above, I think that's enough to justify. He just has to be a MLE player in the year after that to reach the same total, and he eliminates the risk of getting hurt or struggling next year.
The Celtics could also add a 4th year to your proposed deal, but with a partial guarantee. So the 4th year for $34M but let's say $9M is guaranteed. Then he gets $99M over 3 years when we buy him out. We stretch the guarantee so he's at $3M dead money and we still get the cap space.
Ultimately it comes down to I just don't see the 4th year you think is out there for him. Not with such limited cap space and uncertain financial times.
Keep in mind that off seaosn si wdiely regarded as a very good one for top level talent, with Guys like Kawhi, Giannis, George, Lebron ect available. A lot of teams are saving cap space for that season. The problem is a lot of these guys who are available may very well resign with their current teams, so its possible there will be more than a few teams with space but nobody to spend it on. That could very well lead to someone overpaying Hayward.
So it probably just depends on whether Hayward values security over maximizing his pay day.
