Official Trade Thread -- Part XXXVIII

[dckingsfan]

What do we see as the probability of no trade? Better or less than 50/50?

Code: Select all

Wall        $40,824,000
Beal        $28,751,775
Bryant       $8,333,333
Smith        $6,146,341
Hachimura    $4,692,840
Robinson     $3,737,520
Brown        $3,372,840
Wagner       $2,161,920
Bonga        $1,663,861
Schofield    $1,517,981
           $101,202,411

Other signings would be:

Mathews, Bertāns, and our rookie pick. And then they just run with what they have?

[payitforward]

...9 & Wagner to Orlando for 15 & Bamba....
Mo is simply valued as ...a high 2nd round pick in this trade. ...

Right. But I don't think 9 & a high 2d round pick would have a chance to get you 15 & Mo Bamba.

Of course, since we can't test either of these hypotheses no point in debating abstractly. Especially since I'd be delighted if you were right & I was wrong, so that dropping 6 slots in R1 would let us replace Wagner with Bamba.

[Jimmy Recard]

Another trade down scenario would be to pick a blocked/out of favor prospect.
I.E. 9 & Wagner to Orlando for 15 & Bamba
- Bamba is blocked by Vuc (Who plays a lot of minutes) as well as Birch and even Isaac playing some Center.

Boston for 14 & Robert Williams would also be a bit interesting... maybe 30 as well. But you get the point.

Those are both great ideas! But... I don't think anyone is likely to value Wagner high enough to make a trade of this kind work.

I’d do #9 and Wagner for #15 and Bamba in a heartbeat. Then draft Kira Lewis at #15 and call it a day. Unfortunately I think Mo might’ve hurt his trade value with his play in the bubble

[payitforward]

What do we see as the probability of no trade? Better or less than 50/50?

Code: Select all

Wall        $40,824,000
Beal        $28,751,775
Bryant       $8,333,333
Smith        $6,146,341
Hachimura    $4,692,840
Robinson     $3,737,520
Brown        $3,372,840
Wagner       $2,161,920
Bonga        $1,663,861
Schofield    $1,517,981
           $101,202,411

Other signings would be:

Mathews, Bertāns, and our rookie pick. And then they just run with what they have?

I'd say it's far more likely that we don't make a trade than that we do.

We aren't going to trade Wall, Beal, Hachimura, Robinson, Brown, Bonga or Schofield -- either because it's clear we don't want to or because they have no trade value. As well, I don't see a big line forming to acquire Smith.

That leaves Bryant from your list of 9. He's our only Center, he's young & productive, & he's not over-paid. Unless we could acquire Allen, it's hard to imagine moving Thomas Bryant.

But your list tops out at 12. Or 13 if we make the #36-7 pick we have from the Bulls, as I assume we will. So, we'd have to do more than "run with what we have."

Who might the other 2 players be? Maybe Pasecniks. Maybe GPII. Maybe Johnathan William. Maybe Napier. Maybe we'll score another rookie?

[dckingsfan]

What do we see as the probability of no trade? Better or less than 50/50?

Code: Select all

Wall        $40,824,000
Beal        $28,751,775
Bryant       $8,333,333
Smith        $6,146,341
Hachimura    $4,692,840
Robinson     $3,737,520
Brown        $3,372,840
Wagner       $2,161,920
Bonga        $1,663,861
Schofield    $1,517,981
           $101,202,411

Other signings would be:

Mathews, Bertāns, and our rookie pick. And then they just run with what they have?

I'd say it's far more likely that we don't make a trade than that we do.

We aren't going to trade Wall, Beal, Hachimura, Robinson, Brown, Bonga or Schofield -- either because it's clear we don't want to or because they have no trade value. As well, I don't see a big line forming to acquire Smith.

That leaves Bryant from your list of 9. He's our only Center, he's young & productive, & he's not over-paid. Unless we could acquire Allen, it's hard to imagine moving Thomas Bryant.

But your list tops out at 12. Or 13 if we make the #36-7 pick we have from the Bulls, as I assume we will. So, we'd have to do more than "run with what we have."

Who might the other 2 players be? Maybe Pasecniks. Maybe GPII. Maybe Johnathan William. Maybe Napier. Maybe we'll score another rookie?

So... guessing we go with 14 + two ways. I am guessing it will be another of those "value" trades in the mold of Wagner, Bonga, Bryant. And then the question... can they produce another Mathews like player out of the two-way.

[payitforward]

No reason to go with 14. To my knowledge they've never done that for an extended time. Payroll won't threaten the tax barrier.

Opportunities will present themselves. For that matter, we can't be sure to retain Bertans even if we want to. & we can't know yet whether we'll promote Mathews to regular roster status (hope so!) -- so there's room to make some kinds of moves. I just don't see us trading away any of our players for the reasons I've already mentioned.

I wouldn't count out our signing Jerian Grant, btw. TBH, I thought he'd done a terrific job of establishing himself in the league his 2d & 3d years. I have no idea why he didn't get a qualifying offer & a 2d contract. Solid player.

[nate33]

What do we see as the probability of no trade? Better or less than 50/50?

Code: Select all

Wall        $40,824,000
Beal        $28,751,775
Bryant       $8,333,333
Smith        $6,146,341
Hachimura    $4,692,840
Robinson     $3,737,520
Brown        $3,372,840
Wagner       $2,161,920
Bonga        $1,663,861
Schofield    $1,517,981
           $101,202,411

Other signings would be:

Mathews, Bertāns, and our rookie pick. And then they just run with what they have?

I'd say it's far more likely that we don't make a trade than that we do.

We aren't going to trade Wall, Beal, Hachimura, Robinson, Brown, Bonga or Schofield -- either because it's clear we don't want to or because they have no trade value. As well, I don't see a big line forming to acquire Smith.

That leaves Bryant from your list of 9. He's our only Center, he's young & productive, & he's not over-paid. Unless we could acquire Allen, it's hard to imagine moving Thomas Bryant.

But your list tops out at 12. Or 13 if we make the #36-7 pick we have from the Bulls, as I assume we will. So, we'd have to do more than "run with what we have."

Who might the other 2 players be? Maybe Pasecniks. Maybe GPII. Maybe Johnathan William. Maybe Napier. Maybe we'll score another rookie?

I'd really like to see a Beal for Simmons trade. Beal's value is probably at an all time high, and Simmons just isn't working out in Philly. It makes even more sense if it's true that Wall is shooting the 3-ball well now. The trade saves us a lot of money down the road (by avoiding signing Beal to a 35% max deal) and we get younger.

[dckingsfan]

What do we see as the probability of no trade? Better or less than 50/50?

Code: Select all

Wall        $40,824,000
Beal        $28,751,775
Bryant       $8,333,333
Smith        $6,146,341
Hachimura    $4,692,840
Robinson     $3,737,520
Brown        $3,372,840
Wagner       $2,161,920
Bonga        $1,663,861
Schofield    $1,517,981
           $101,202,411

Other signings would be:

Mathews, Bertāns, and our rookie pick. And then they just run with what they have?

I'd say it's far more likely that we don't make a trade than that we do.

We aren't going to trade Wall, Beal, Hachimura, Robinson, Brown, Bonga or Schofield -- either because it's clear we don't want to or because they have no trade value. As well, I don't see a big line forming to acquire Smith.

That leaves Bryant from your list of 9. He's our only Center, he's young & productive, & he's not over-paid. Unless we could acquire Allen, it's hard to imagine moving Thomas Bryant.

But your list tops out at 12. Or 13 if we make the #36-7 pick we have from the Bulls, as I assume we will. So, we'd have to do more than "run with what we have."

Who might the other 2 players be? Maybe Pasecniks. Maybe GPII. Maybe Johnathan William. Maybe Napier. Maybe we'll score another rookie?

I'd really like to see a Beal for Simmons trade. Beal's value is probably at an all time high, and Simmons just isn't working out in Philly. It makes even more sense if it's true that Wall is shooting the 3-ball well now. The trade saves us a lot of money down the road (by avoiding signing Beal to a 35% max deal) and we get younger.

So +/- on a trade vs. no trade?

[nate33]

So +/- on a trade vs. no trade?

I think the odds of us actually making a trade are extremely low.

Usually, trades are made because you have a guy who doesn't fit, either position-wise or age-wise; or it's because of salary issues. We have no salary issues; and outside of an untradeable John Wall, we have nobody that is too old to grow with our young core.

I don't think anybody really wants any of our players at their current salary except for Beal and maybe Troy Brown. I suppose you could make a case that Troy Brown's skill set doesn't fit this team all that well (he's better with the ball than off ball) but reports are the team really loves his potential so they probably value him higher than the trade market.

[payitforward]

What do we see as the probability of no trade? Better or less than 50/50?

Code: Select all

Wall        $40,824,000
Beal        $28,751,775
Bryant       $8,333,333
Smith        $6,146,341
Hachimura    $4,692,840
Robinson     $3,737,520
Brown        $3,372,840
Wagner       $2,161,920
Bonga        $1,663,861
Schofield    $1,517,981
           $101,202,411

Other signings would be:

Mathews, Bertāns, and our rookie pick. And then they just run with what they have?

I'd say it's far more likely that we don't make a trade than that we do.

We aren't going to trade Wall, Beal, Hachimura, Robinson, Brown, Bonga or Schofield -- either because it's clear we don't want to or because they have no trade value. As well, I don't see a big line forming to acquire Smith.

That leaves Bryant from your list of 9. He's our only Center, he's young & productive, & he's not over-paid. Unless we could acquire Allen, it's hard to imagine moving Thomas Bryant.

But your list tops out at 12. Or 13 if we make the #36-7 pick we have from the Bulls, as I assume we will. So, we'd have to do more than "run with what we have."

Who might the other 2 players be? Maybe Pasecniks. Maybe GPII. Maybe Johnathan William. Maybe Napier. Maybe we'll score another rookie?

I'd really like to see a Beal for Simmons trade. Beal's value is probably at an all time high, and Simmons just isn't working out in Philly. It makes even more sense if it's true that Wall is shooting the 3-ball well now. The trade saves us a lot of money down the road (by avoiding signing Beal to a 35% max deal) and we get younger.

Well you know that I agree! But... Monumental appears to have a big marketing focus on Brad. I bet they don't see Simmons as equally marketable.

[dckingsfan]

So +/- on a trade vs. no trade?

I think the odds of us actually making a trade are extremely low.

Usually, trades are made because you have a guy who doesn't fit, either position-wise or age-wise; or it's because of salary issues. We have no salary issues; and outside of an untradeable John Wall, we have nobody that is too old to grow with our young core.

I don't think anybody really wants any of our players at their current salary except for Beal and maybe Troy Brown. I suppose you could make a case that Troy Brown's skill set doesn't fit this team all that well (he's better with the ball than off ball) but reports are the team really loves his potential so they probably value him higher than the trade market.

Yeah, I could see a "Jerome Robinson" level trade, but that is about it... And, I think you are right on Troy Brown, when Wall/Beal show back up + Smith, I think you are moving him to SF. So, I guess I could see a Troy Brown trade as well it they could get a true 3&D SF.

But I think likely that this is who we are going to be next year.

[gambitx777]

How many times does ben simmons either A. show complete lack of the ability to shoot. or B. be hurt ALL THE TIME. until you stop trying to trade beal for him. Ben is going to end up a bad deal because he can not shoot and hes not going to stay healthy !!!!!!1 sorry thats just how I see it. Id rather keep beal. imo

[Ruzious]

I am a little worried about Simmons being injury-prone. That latest injury could be nothing serious, or it could indicate a problem with his knee cap. I guess they'll check it out to see if some surgery might help. At this point, I'd be hesitant to trade for him.

[nate33]

I am a little worried about Simmons being injury-prone. That latest injury could be nothing serious, or it could indicate a problem with his knee cap. I guess they'll check it out to see if some surgery might help. At this point, I'd be hesitant to trade for him.

The health is definitely a concern. I'd certainly want our medical guys to examine him first.

[nate33]

How many times does ben simmons either A. show complete lack of the ability to shoot. or B. be hurt ALL THE TIME. until you stop trying to trade beal for him. Ben is going to end up a bad deal because he can not shoot and hes not going to stay healthy !!!!!!1 sorry thats just how I see it. Id rather keep beal. imo

The injuries are a concern.

I'm not too worried about the shooting. The shooting is a problem in Philly because he is playing alongside so many other non-shooters. It just makes it impossible to fully realize the potential of both Simmons and Embiid. That won't be a problem here with Bryant at center.

I love Beal, but I just don't see this team turning the corner and being a contender in it's current form, and they'll never add another star to the Wall/Beal core because of the cost and the lack of picks. I wouldn't just give away Beal as a rebuilding ploy, but I would trade him for a very young All-Star talent with All-NBA capability. It's very rare to find such a guy on the trade market, and Ben Simmons is it.

[DCZards]

My chief problem with adding Simmons remains his fit with Wall. You really have to build a team around Ben that includes at least 2-3 outstanding perimeter shooters. If you trade Beal, that leaves the Zards with only one proven shooter--Davis Bertans--and he's a free agent.

Ben is an immense talent and would be a good fit on some teams. I just don't think the Zards is one of them.

Plus I'd want to see what Wall looks like next to the improved Beal before giving up on that combo.

[nate33]

My chief problem with adding Simmons remains his fit with Wall. You really have to build a team around Ben that includes at least 2-3 outstanding perimeter shooters. If you trade Beal, that leaves the Zards with only one proven shooter--Davis Bertans--and he's a free agent.

Ben is an immense talent and would be a good fit on some teams. I just don't think the Zards is one of them.

Plus I'd want to see what Wall looks like next to the improved Beal before giving up on that combo.

I don't worry about fit with Wall because Wall is 30 years old and has played in just 73 games over the past 3 seasons.

Besides, age is going to take away Wall's quickness advantage anyhow. Either way, he is going to have to become a better shooter if he wants to remain a star in this league. Word is, his shooting is indeed much improved so he'll probably be okay with Simmons. And if not, we'll just look to move him as his contract grows shorter and more tradeable.

[payitforward]

...I don't think anybody really wants any of our players at their current salary except for Beal and maybe Troy Brown. I suppose you could make a case that Troy Brown's skill set doesn't fit this team all that well (he's better with the ball than off ball) but reports are the team really loves his potential so they probably value him higher than the trade market.

Yeah, I could see a "Jerome Robinson" level trade, but that is about it... And, I think you are right on Troy Brown, when Wall/Beal show back up + Smith, I think you are moving him to SF. So, I guess I could see a Troy Brown trade as well it they could get a true 3&D SF.

But I think likely that this is who we are going to be next year.

nate -- I think we have a bunch of players other teams might well want at their current salaries but that they are guys we don't want to trade, i.e. most of whose value lies their futures. But they are all young players whom we wouldn't have any reason to trade and who, precisely b/c they are young & their salaries are low, wouldn't bring much back that could help us.

As to anybody's skill set fitting "this team" -- we won 25 games this year: .352 winning percentage. After 32 wins last year. Doesn't it seem like a better idea to build a team around the skills of the best young players we have or can get? Better I mean than imagining we ought to leverage the skills we have because they represent anything particularly wonderful?

Just a thought... I may be imputing to your remarks more of an intention than makes sense...

[pcbothwel]

How many times does ben simmons either A. show complete lack of the ability to shoot. or B. be hurt ALL THE TIME. until you stop trying to trade beal for him. Ben is going to end up a bad deal because he can not shoot and hes not going to stay healthy !!!!!!1 sorry thats just how I see it. Id rather keep beal. imo

The injuries are a concern.

I'm not too worried about the shooting. The shooting is a problem in Philly because he is playing alongside so many other non-shooters. It just makes it impossible to fully realize the potential of both Simmons and Embiid. That won't be a problem here with Bryant at center.

I love Beal, but I just don't see this team turning the corner and being a contender in it's current form, and they'll never add another star to the Wall/Beal core because of the cost and the lack of picks. I wouldn't just give away Beal as a rebuilding ploy, but I would trade him for a very young All-Star talent with All-NBA capability. It's very rare to find such a guy on the trade market, and Ben Simmons is it.

You're giving Simmons a pass with no evidence. I dont think people realize the gap between Lebron/Giannis and Simmons. Ben is not as freakish as those guys are physically, not NEARLY as focused or possess the leadership qualities, and less skilled.
There is a large sample size 3 years running of Ben Simmons getting worse...not better.

I dont understand some of you. You complain about the Wall/Beal team having the ceiling of a 2nd round playoff team, yet ignore that Simmons is no better and is the archetype of a limited player that gets exposed in the playoffs where high IQ players and coaches can tailor their defense to making him irrelevant because.... HE. CANT. SHOOT.

I want to take another shot with Wall/Beal and the young guys. If that doesnt work, then rebuild... But I DO NOT want to spend 2 years trading Wall/Beal, only to spend another 2-3 years realizing that Ben Simmons simply elongated our existence of a above average team. That would be another 4 years until we realize we are where we were in 2016.... Treadmill.

[Ruzious]

How many times does ben simmons either A. show complete lack of the ability to shoot. or B. be hurt ALL THE TIME. until you stop trying to trade beal for him. Ben is going to end up a bad deal because he can not shoot and hes not going to stay healthy !!!!!!1 sorry thats just how I see it. Id rather keep beal. imo

The injuries are a concern.

I'm not too worried about the shooting. The shooting is a problem in Philly because he is playing alongside so many other non-shooters. It just makes it impossible to fully realize the potential of both Simmons and Embiid. That won't be a problem here with Bryant at center.

I love Beal, but I just don't see this team turning the corner and being a contender in it's current form, and they'll never add another star to the Wall/Beal core because of the cost and the lack of picks. I wouldn't just give away Beal as a rebuilding ploy, but I would trade him for a very young All-Star talent with All-NBA capability. It's very rare to find such a guy on the trade market, and Ben Simmons is it.

You're giving Simmons a pass with no evidence. I dont think people realize the gap between Lebron/Giannis and Simmons. Ben is not as freakish as those guys are physically, not NEARLY as focused or possess the leadership qualities, and less skilled.
There is a large sample size 3 years running of Ben Simmons getting worse...not better.

I dont understand some of you. You complain about the Wall/Beal team having the ceiling of a 2nd round playoff team, yet ignore that Simmons is no better and is the archetype of a limited player that gets exposed in the playoffs where high IQ players and coaches can tailor their defense to making him irrelevant because.... HE. CANT. SHOOT.

I want to take another shot with Wall/Beal and the young guys. If that doesnt work, then rebuild... But I DO NOT want to spend 2 years trading Wall/Beal, only to spend another 2-3 years realizing that Ben Simmons simply elongated our existence of a above average team. That would be another 4 years until we realize we are where we were in 2016.... Treadmill.

Why do you think our Wall/Beal team is anything more than a treadmill team? We've had them together for 8 years. They've been the definition of a treadmill team - except when they've been worse. Simmons is much more likely to dramatically improve than Beal and already has a better resume.